Blackouts in the British Isles

Grey Havoc

Grey Havoc

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A little bit of background on the Irish situation first:
www.rte.ie

Will we face electricity shortages in Ireland this winter?

Facing an energy crisis not seen since the 1970s, how worried should we be about the lights going out this winter?
www.rte.ie www.rte.ie

www.rte.ie

Can Ireland keep the lights on this winter?

Ireland hasn't built enough generators to keep up with electricity demand, so, this winter, our risk of running short is greater than anyone would like, explains Louise Byrne.
www.rte.ie www.rte.ie

As things stand this week:
www.irishmirror.ie

Leo Varadkar's grim winter blackout warning as Dail hears crisis update

"There may be periods where total supply does not meet demand."
www.irishmirror.ie www.irishmirror.ie

www.rte.ie

Minister for Environment says while blackouts this winter are possible, the Government will deliver the power to keep this country working

Eamon Ryan said that the winter outlook reports from Eirgrid show that the country is tight on supply but power will be delivered by a number of means
www.rte.ie www.rte.ie

The less said about Mr. Varadkar and Mr. Ryan, the better. (I'd probably start foaming at the mouth otherwise.)


Quick background on the British situation:
www.bloomberg.com

UK Plans for Blackouts in January in Emergency Energy Plan

www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

www.theguardian.com

UK’s energy crisis response could include winter power cuts

Cold weather and gas shortages could force rationing of electricity to some firms or even households
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

And as of now:
www.telegraph.co.uk

Energy suppliers may pay households to put washing machines on at night to prevent blackouts

Households could earn more than £10 a day by reducing energy use if supplies run short
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk

www.telegraph.co.uk

Inside the ‘civil emergency’ planning for blackouts this winter

National Grid sets out doomsday scenario for when Britain's energy supply falls short
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
 
Near-Worst-case is a lonnng week of murky calm. Former strangles what solar is available in mid-winter, latter brings majority of wind-farms to a halt...

Worst-case is above in the middle of a 'cold-snap'...

Brr: I remember 60's winters with ghastly smogs, 'frost angels' on our windows, switching from darned bed-sox to day-sox under our heaped throw, shovelling the path...
Oh, and pacing off and marking location of nearby street drains so I could poke them clear with dutch-hoe when road salting / partial-thaw / ice-rafting caused flooding...
 
The result of years of power system interference by politicians, pushed by lobby groups, neither of which would know a kilowatt from a megawatt, or how much power, and what systems, are needed to run a modern society.
 
From what I've heard, UK's 'Rees-Mogg' is scarily non-technical beyond the rudiments.
Question arises: Will his advisors have the courage to 'speak unfortunate truths', and will he have the courage to accept cold realities --Literally !!-- that may challenge, nay, trump his staunch principles...
 
Nik said:
From what I've heard, UK's 'Rees-Mogg' is scarily non-technical beyond the rudiments.
Question arises: Will his advisors have the courage to 'speak unfortunate truths', and will he have the courage to accept cold realities --Literally !!-- that may challenge, nay, trump his staunch principles...
Click to expand...
I think he is one of the core people who see his advisors, the Civil Service, as being people whose only goal is to thwart he and his friends’ lofty plans. The fact that they advise against these plans because they are not rooted in any kind of reality goes unheeded.
 
Grey Havoc said:
www.irishexaminer.com

It would take 'extraordinary confluence of events' for lights to go out this winter, Eirgrid boss says

'The electricity industry will have to find new ways to meet the increasing need for energy without relying mainly on burning fossil fuels'
www.irishexaminer.com www.irishexaminer.com
Famous last words, I fear.

Elsewhere in the Irish media, some heresy:
www.irishtimes.com

Ireland needs to bite the bullet on nuclear energy

Small modular reactors can be mass-produced at relatively low cost and risk
www.irishtimes.com www.irishtimes.com
Click to expand...
Good news, but SMRs are at least a decade away from commercialization, unless some kind of moonshot programme is made for them.
 
"... he is one of the core people who see his advisors, the Civil Service, as being people whose only goal is to thwart he and his friends’ lofty plans..."
Unfortunately for us, that's what I fear...
Unfortunately for him, he's now the perfect 'high ranking' patsy to 'carry the can' for any ghastly winter problems...
( And, by association, humble the rest of his exasperating clique... )

Um, what was that RN admiral's name who, given an impossible task, failed and was shot for it ? 'To Encourage the Others' ? Byng ??

Still, you'd think there'd be a brisk re-run of those 'Public Information' ads about energy conservation, turning down 'stats a few degrees, layering etc etc...
 
To be quite fair to him:
www.telegraph.co.uk

Downing Street blocks energy-saving information campaign

The £15 million campaign would have encouraged households to consume less energy amid energy supply fears
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk

Downing Street is, needless to say, reluctant to accept the blame:
www.bbc.com

Energy use advice campaign pulled as No 10 objects

A minister denies a full plan was blocked by Liz Truss's office and insists energy supplies are secure.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

And in other bad news:
www.telegraph.co.uk

Gas storage facility still not up and running ahead of winter

Rough site in the North Sea will now make minimal contribution to UK energy security
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
 
Lots of sanctimonious, self important reporter types with smug looks on their faces telling people to do obvious thing like turn down the thermostat etc. Always with a sacricial lambs ready for ridicule.

Perhaps we can just reiterate the obvious without the bovine behaviour? I know, unlikely.
 
Last edited:
Nik said:
"... he is one of the core people who see his advisors, the Civil Service, as being people whose only goal is to thwart he and his friends’ lofty plans..."
Unfortunately for us, that's what I fear...
Unfortunately for him, he's now the perfect 'high ranking' patsy to 'carry the can' for any ghastly winter problems...
( And, by association, humble the rest of his exasperating clique... )

Um, what was that RN admiral's name who, given an impossible task, failed and was shot for it ? 'To Encourage the Others' ? Byng ??

Still, you'd think there'd be a brisk re-run of those 'Public Information' ads about energy conservation, turning down 'stats a few degrees, layering etc etc...
Click to expand...


If you need a public information ad to tell you to turn off unnecessary lights, not have the building like a sauna etc I dont think you can be advised......

I really do get the impression there are a substantial number of people out there who cannot see the link between usage and cost, they have just got so used to using it thinking it is practically free.

There are plenty who are going to have problems but there are also a substantial amount who as far as I am concerned having been just plain wasting energy.
 
The government's view is - if you can pay for it burn it and if there is a blackout it's fine because you by channelling your egocentric self-importance you can summon electricity to flow through your plug sockets like magic. If you can't pay it then it's tough cheds for being a feckless waster who didn't aim high enough to become a hedge fund manager or disruptive entrepreneurial whiz kid. And don't moan about the last 30 years of lack of infrastructure investment, don't you know there's a war on? And anyone who doesn't burn through 5,000 therms of gas a year is automatically one of those malignant anti-growth coalition types hampering the energy industry, we can't keep throwing £70bn at them every six months (well we can - and will) the people need to pay their way towards the shareholder bonuses too.

You think all this crackers but its even odds I'll read exactly this in the papers on Monday as government policy.
 
Private Eye's 'Keeping the Lights On' column by Old Sparky has been forecasting blackouts for the last three or four winters. Hasn't happened. However, we haven't had a hard winter for 60 years (Older readers might recall the winter of 62-63) or Putin weaponising energy supplies.

As for this government's new found love drilling/fracking etc. We rig pigs are just laughing our heads off in the teashacks of the North Sea - there isn't the trained workforce to do this. The days of dragging lads out of the pubs of Aberdeen and handing them boots and hardhat are long gone. It's a highly technical business and in the last ten years much of the trained workforce has gone, as has a much of the experience (eh, Schneiderman?). I'm eyeing the door myself as I can see what's coming.

Ho hum,

Chris
 
As a simple soul can someone explain to me why people still say the solution is in renewable energy (wind, solar etc) while not explaining how to supply power when these sources do not?
China, India and the US now followed by Germany and even us have accepted that the cheapest, safest source of continuous power is a coal fired station. Coal is widely available from sensible countries unlike gas. Unlike nuclear power it does not need to be buried underground afterwards for millennia.
I realise that I am sounding like The Donald but a cold Winter in Britain may well see the Public say Planet go f*CK yourself we need to keep warm!
Just get some different climate models. In the 70s we were told the next Ice Age was due any day now. In which case we may need all the Coal powered stations we can refurbish.
 
uk 75 said:
As a simple soul can someone explain to me why people still say the solution is in renewable energy (wind, solar etc) while not explaining how to supply power when these sources do not?
Click to expand...
Because it's hard for peoples to admit, that they eagerly allowed themselves to be scammed for the last two decades.
 
"(Older readers might recall the winter of 62-63)"
Yes.
Well, enough of it. Um, too much of it...
Brrrr....
 
I doubt the wealthy will go in on this. In any case, the critical month appears to be January.
CJGibson said:
Private Eye's 'Keeping the Lights On' column by Old Sparky has been forecasting blackouts for the last three or four winters. Hasn't happened. However, we haven't had a hard winter for 60 years (Older readers might recall the winter of 62-63) or Putin weaponising energy supplies.

As for this government's new found love drilling/fracking etc. We rig pigs are just laughing our heads off in the teashacks of the North Sea - there isn't the trained workforce to do this. The days of dragging lads out of the pubs of Aberdeen and handing them boots and hardhat are long gone. It's a highly technical business and in the last ten years much of the trained workforce has gone, as has a much of the experience (eh, Schneiderman?). I'm eyeing the door myself as I can see what's coming.

Ho hum,

Chris
Click to expand...

Putin weaponising energy supplies? We threw the sanctions at him so did any government who did that think he wouldn't respond?
 
Or people can shut everything down and move to other countries with heat for the winter. And move back when the weather improves.
 
What was it Basil Fawlty said about the war? Aside from don't mention it.

Chris
 
uk 75 said:
As a simple soul can someone explain to me why people still say the solution is in renewable energy (wind, solar etc) while not explaining how to supply power when these sources do not?
Click to expand...
If you do a little research you will see that renewables comprise multiple forms of energy which all contribute not only to the outcome but also by providing in built resilience. Also, try just looking up some data:

www.theguardian.com

UK electricity from renewables outpaces gas and coal power

In 2020 wind turbines provided almost a quarter of electricity, and in EU renewable energy outperformed fossil fuels
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

uk 75 said:
China, India and the US now followed by Germany and even us have accepted that the cheapest, safest source of continuous power is a coal fired station.
Click to expand...
So China and India are your benchmarks? Really? BTW, safe is a subjective measure. Factor in the effects on coal miners, the pollution to the environment and the flow on effects and one might argue otherwise.
uk 75 said:
Unlike nuclear power it does not need to be buried underground afterwards for millennia.
Click to expand...
No, it just dumps its pollution (including more radiation than nuclear power stations) right into the atmosphere.
uk 75 said:
Just get some different climate models. In the 70s we were told the next Ice Age was due any day now.
Click to expand...
Not more of this garbage
uk 75 said:
In which case we may need all the Coal powered stations we can refurbish.
Click to expand...
Dream on.
 
The government doesn't like solar. Middling-to-low category 3b land is to be reclassified as 'Best and Versatile' category land which would ban solar from about 41% of the land area of England, or about 58% of agricultural land.
The policy seems to be farmland for home food production - one upside is that more UK crops would presumably cut some carbon footprint in food transport costs.
The cynic in me wonders if the reclassification would prevent the land being sold for fracking wells or property developers' "green villages"?

www.theguardian.com

Ministers hope to ban solar projects from most English farms

Exclusive: Environment minister seeks to expand definition of prime farmland in drive for productivity
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Hood said:
The government doesn't like solar. Middling-to-low category 3b land is to be reclassified as 'Best and Versatile' category land which would ban solar from about 41% of the land area of England, or about 58% of agricultural land.
The policy seems to be farmland for home food production - one upside is that more UK crops would presumably cut some carbon footprint in food transport costs.
The cynic in me wonders if the reclassification would prevent the land being sold for fracking wells or property developers' "green villages"?

www.theguardian.com

Ministers hope to ban solar projects from most English farms

Exclusive: Environment minister seeks to expand definition of prime farmland in drive for productivity
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...
There is plenty of roof space to cover with panels. The world is becoming more 'changeable' and the west is seeing the full cost of shipping everything from one continent to the other, so we probably do need to keep land for food crops. or even fuel crops.
 
uk 75 said:
As a simple soul can someone explain to me why people still say the solution is in renewable energy (wind, solar etc) while not explaining how to supply power when these sources do not?
China, India and the US now followed by Germany and even us have accepted that the cheapest, safest source of continuous power is a coal fired station. Coal is widely available from sensible countries unlike gas. Unlike nuclear power it does not need to be buried underground afterwards for millennia.
I realise that I am sounding like The Donald but a cold Winter in Britain may well see the Public say Planet go f*CK yourself we need to keep warm!
Just get some different climate models. In the 70s we were told the next Ice Age was due any day now. In which case we may need all the Coal powered stations we can refurbish.
Click to expand...

Solar and wind do have intermittency issues, but every kg of coal you don't have to burn is an improvement. Long-distance grid ties improve this, as do various storage schemes.
Coal is only safe if you ignore the deaths caused by the emissions from burning the stuff. Telling the planet to go * itself just saddles our descendants with higher and higher mountains of trouble to clear. In that regard, coal is no better than nuclear; and we have solutions for most of the nuclear waste problems.

Our current climate models are fine. In the 1970s, climate science was in its infancy, which led to incorrect conclusions. That was quickly corrected though: within a few years, the 'ice age' models were recognized as unrealistic. We've had 50 years of continuous improvement of our climate models, along with 50 years in which those models were tested (make prediction, then check the weather for the next year to find out if the model is accurate), so the accuracy of these models is no longer conjecture: they're proven.
 
Anyway, where's this coal coming from?

1) We have no expertise in deep coal mining, where the good stuff is, that knowledge is lost. Oh yes, anthracite in Cumbria. That won't keep a Drax running and it's too good to burn.
2) I am the last of ~8 generations to go down a pit. I went down a working deep coal mine once and would not wish that job on anyone. I escaped to university. Have a read of Paxman's 'Black Gold'. You'll need a new generation of Bevin Boys.
3) Gasification in place? See my earlier answer on drilling holes for oil and gas - we don't have the folk. This seems to have lost ground to fracking for some reason, faults and dykes probably, just like deep mining.

I'll get me lamp.

Chris
 
CJGibson said:
edwest3 said:
"We have no expertise in deep coal mining, where the good stuff is, that knowledge is lost." Maybe someone should give the Americans a call? Or the Germans?
Click to expand...
Brexit? Can't go bringing in manky foreign miners.

Chris
Click to expand...
Not to mention given current British wages, said German or American coal miners would have to accept a significant pay cut.
 
I find it all rather amusing how 40 years ago the government wanted to close coalmines, something opposed by the 'enemy within' i.e. the horny-handed sons of toil, whereas now they want to open a coal mine and are opposed by the Anti-Growth Coalition ie their own party!

Speaking of 40 years ago, I have an article in The Aviation Historian describing how the RAF planned to use Vulcans against Argentine airfields in Patagonia. You'll also learn something about Easter Island you can use in a pub quiz.

Chris
 
CJGibson said:
edwest3 said:
"We have no expertise in deep coal mining, where the good stuff is, that knowledge is lost." Maybe someone should give the Americans a call? Or the Germans?
Click to expand...
Brexit? Can't go bringing in manky foreign miners.

Chris
Click to expand...
I'm no expert, but my understanding was that one of the driving forces behind Brexit was the desire for Britain to be able to control immigration. Britain got Brexit, but from here it doesn't look like there has been any actual control on immigration. So why, if Britain is still being flooded with "migrants" would they disdain German or American experts who would help them keep the actual lights on?
 
Didn't you read the Brexit mantra? In 2016 Gove specifically said "People in this country have had enough of experts". Funnily enough 6 years later and Gove is now considered to be one of the more saner, less radical Tories...

There is no coherent energy policy. We've had the same political party for 10 years but we've had three Secretaries of State for Energy and Climate Change (before that post was abolished in 2016) and five Secretaries of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy - so nearly one per year. That's eight different hands at the tiller, eight different pet projects and eight different pet ideologies.
The present incumbent in his previous role relied on tabloid newspaper ads to get policy ideas and previous incumbents include the now Chancellor of the Exchequer who wiped £300bn off the economy in just a week and a failed wannabe Tory leader/PM. I think that should reveal a lot about the calibre of the people posted to the role.

BloJo reckoned he could crank out a nuclear power station every year for eight years. So far we've built half of one and maybe have planning permission for a second and maaayybe a couple more by 2050 but of course that love/hate relationship with Chinese investment doesn't bode well. Support for onshore wind changes more times than the wind. Offshore wind seems likely to continue for now. Solar seems less publicly fractious but seems out of government favour (energy storage is still a huge practical problem). Tidal has been talked about and studied a lot but the costs are seen as too onerous; just today an MP asked about the Swansea scheme only to be told by the chief secretary to the Treasury that they doubt its value for money. Scotland is well set with renewable energy though. Fracking is highly unpopular, the BloJo gov't thought about bribing local populations before wisely pausing the whole thing. Oddly most fracking sites align with safe Tory seats so the resumption of fracking is causing a lot of squeaky bum noises in the Commons these days. The Cumbria coal mining is mostly for the UK steel industry (what's left of it) or juicy export contracts depending on which government department you ask. The cynic in me wonders whether all this oil and gas exploitation is really about self-sufficiency or a means to make money by boosting exports?
 
I suspect that Net Zero has less than a year to live, and even that may be optimistic.
 
IIRC, UK coal mining became 'problematic' due to faulted seams. Yes, the very same faults that now bedevil fracking.

One snag is that too many of remaining 'good' but deep coal seams fall across the 'hinge line' of UK's post-glacial isostatic rebound. Scotland still rising, SE UK still falling, NW UK and its 'coal measures' being wracked like the spine of an airport novel...

FWIW, I've been down a working 'long wall' colliery. IIRC, Barton supplied nearby Fiddler's Ferry thermal power station. All the easy stuff had been gleaned by the Victorians, the 'long wall' machinery was chomping through much thinner, deeper seams they'd ignored. That grimy visit was for 'General Studies' GCE --Which I aced !!-- so about 50 years ago. Not too long after, the colliery headers ran into an intractable web of wet faults, 'Game Over'...

Funny, our 'GS' visits also took us to the leading 'White Goods' manufacturer in the area, soon supplanted by imports. And a steel mill, with blast furnaces, alloying pots, rolling mills etc etc. All gone. The Stanlow oil refinery has changed hands, but is still going. I remember it for the bitterest, foulest, least-drinkable coffee I'd ever met...

IMHO, if you wanted to re-open deep coal mining in UK, it would be better done with robotics and ROVs. Inert atmosphere, dust-suppression misting, no half-hour man-riding belts to/from work-face. Just nod to previous shift in the VR shed, switch over...
 
GTX said:
Hood said:
In 2016 Gove specifically said "People in this country have had enough of experts".
Click to expand...
Ah yes, more of the 'celebration of being morons...' that always seems to accompany such types these days...:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

It appears to be yet another example of political dishonesty via clipping quotes out of context. I don't know who this Gove guy was or what he was talking about, but there's this thing called "Google," see, and it helped me, in about ten seconds, find that what he *actually* said was:

"I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong."

It says something quite different when in context. It is *perfectly* appropriate for people to"have enough" of people who consistently get it wrong. But by trimming out the context, political extremists with axes to grind but who have dubious arguments - or dubious abilities to make arguments - can get the other guy to say something he didn't. We saw that on a grand scale when a great many talking heads took Trump massively out of context with "good people on both sides," and before that with GW Bush's "Mission Accomplished."
 

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