My Presbyterian forebears are demanding that we all take cold showers.

(Much of this applies to the boom or Cambrian explosion in eVTOL as well, but crucially, those aren't so close to power - see below.)


May be paywalled if you've passed your limit for the month.

...one study of two centuries of technological innovations found that they are accompanied by an investment bubble three times out of four.

The Nasdaq-100 – an index of 100 publicly traded companies which includes Apple, Intel, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet and other Big Tech names – lost a trillion dollars in market value as investors looked at a new round of company reports and asked when exactly the world-changing AI revolution was going to show up as earnings. On 2 August, the investors moving their money out of the tech-heavy American stock market was “becoming a stampede”, Bloomberg News reported, as signs of a slowing US economy sent money flowing away from riskier investments.

In June, Goldman Sachs published a report in which it was argued that the “truly transformative changes” promised by the industry “won’t happen quickly and few – if any – will likely occur within the next 10 years”.

...among those who use generative AI for their work, the magic is increasingly wearing off. In a survey of 2,500 workers in the US, UK, Australia and Canada, published last week, 77 per cent said the generative AI tools they had been asked to use actually added to their workload; nearly half said they had no idea how to produce the productivity gains their employers expected from AI. In a Morgan Stanley investor note, one client, a large pharmaceutical company was reported to have dropped the AI tools it had licensed for 500 workers; an unnamed executive said the slides the software generated looked like “middle-school presentations”.

The leading company in the boom, ChatGPT maker OpenAI, could lose up to $5bn this year, according to a report by the Information.

Moore’s law, which held that computer chips would double in complexity every two years without getting much more expensive, was the principle that guided the dot-com boom: new computing power was arriving, pretty much for free, and it would change everything. But Moore’s law wasn’t a law; it had no logical or mathematical proof. It was a magazine column.

...incorporated so much more of the data needed to “train” the systems to generate new words, images and sounds. “We saw rapid progress,” explains Marcus, “as the industry raced from using a tenth of the internet, to a quarter of the internet to half of the internet, to almost everything that’s available. And now they’ve run out… these companies have essentially used the entire internet.”

“I don’t know if they [tech leaders] believe what they’re saying,” says Marcus, “but I think that they’ve convinced a lot of the public, and even some people in the field, that artificial general intelligence is imminent, that it’s going to change everything… they get power by suggesting that they are close to this magical thing. They get treated like saints, or kings, they take meetings with prime ministers.”


However:

“I don’t know if they [tech leaders] believe what they’re saying,” says Marcus, “but I think that they’ve convinced a lot of the public, and even some people in the field, that artificial general intelligence is imminent, that it’s going to change everything… they get power by suggesting that they are close to this magical thing. They get treated like saints, or kings, they take meetings with prime ministers.”

This is the most salient aspect – beyond what it might do to the average portfolio – of the popping of the AI bubble: that the billionaire class will simply not allow it to happen. Almost all of the wealth gained by the world’s richest people last year came from AI stocks. As a consumer you may question whether you really want large language models deciding the outcome of your job application, writing the TV programmes you watch or taking your customer service call, but the tech industry has no intention of allowing you to make any such choice. The bubble will not deflate without a fight.
 
Meant to post these last week:

 
Last edited:
It would be an enchanted, talking machine gun.
Just one of the oh so many, varied, and sundry reasons why I *extremely*, passionately, intensely loathe, detest, abhor, and dislike all of that Tolkien drug-addled pseudowoodoowoke crap (disclaimer: I never finished *any* of his whoever knows how many dreadful wretched books - I was nudged/challenged by a former colleague to read the hobbit as a gateway drug, but I had to quit after about five pages due to the utter asinine/nonsensical snooze-fest nature of the text) is that in one of the Jackson movies (which I stoically sat through to humor an extremely dear very close family member - at least the landscapes were really pretty!) rockets are featured for fireworks purposes, but apparently it occurred to exactly *nobody* at all in that especially benighted magical fairy-dust corner of the literary universe that they just *might* also have some use for land warfare. Meanwhile, William Congreve and Michael Crichton are silently sobbing in their graves, but excuse me, I have Eruption to read...
 
Last edited:
at least the landscapes were really pretty!
Thank you. I live there. When those films were being made, you couldn't throw a stone without it splashing in the latte of someone working on them. A good many of my friends and students ended up working for Peter Jackson. I even got an offer myself but balked at the hours involved.
 
Last edited:
Just one of the oh so many, varied, and sundry reasons why I *extremely*, passionately, intensely loathe, detest, abhor, and dislike all of that Tolkien drug-addled pseudowoodoowoke crap (disclaimer: I never finished *any* of his whoever knows how many dreadful wretched books - I was nudged/challenged by a former colleague to read the hobbit as a gateway drug, but I had to quit after about five pages due to the utter asinine/nonsensical snooze-fest nature of the text) is that in one of the Jackson movies (which I stoically sat through to humor an extremely dear very close family member - at least the landscapes were really pretty!) rockets are featured for fireworks purposes, but apparently it occurred to exactly *nobody* at all in that especially benighted magical fairy-dust corner of the literary universe that they just *might* also have some use for land warfare. Meanwhile, William Congreve and Michael Crichton are silently sobbing in their graves, but excuse me, I have Eruption to read...
C.S. Lewis reading the work of J.R.R. Tolkien said "Oh, no! Not another shitty elf!";:)
 
Any sufficiently advanced technology will be considered magic.
Seriously though...

'This changes everything' is one of the most overused examples of clickbait and it immediately triggers my humbug reflex. Things like AI will change the nature of warfare, but not all at once or even soon. Some commentators talking about the surprising emergence of drones in Ukraine have also observed that the war is very much a WWI style war of stalemate and attrition.

As William Gibson is prone to say, 'The future is here; it's just not evenly distributed.'

Much is made of 'asymmetric warfare' but it must be noted, however 'asymmetric' an innovation might be, it is still matched to the opponent. Nobody's bringing back crossbows and a mediaeval society cannot manufacture machine guns. The technological infrastructure that produces drones is the same technological infrastructure that that makes iPhones and F-35s. 'Asymmetry' is really more like water finding chinks in armour and paths of least resistance. It's not that scary or radical, it's just ungentlemanly - and Churchill definitely saw the potential of that with the SOE (supposedly some admiral said that of submarines - 'underhand and damned un-British!').

Regarding the match of one weapon to another, there's an sf story by Dean McLaughlin, 'Hawk Among the Sparrows' that ironically illustrates this issue. Through some timey-wimey wibbly-wobbly stuff, a modern fighter, callsign 'Pika-Don'* with all the bells and whistles - notably VTOL and Mach 3 capability - and its pilot find themselves in the skies over France in WWI. Thanks to the VTOL, he can actually land the thing, but there's no maintenance and limiting refuelling capability. A few literary workarounds later he can get it back in the air but finds that his radar and IR guided missiles can't track the German Fokkers because they're not hot enough and don't have enough metal in them to make significant targets for their little electronic brains. Finally he figures out that the sonic boom of his plane is itself a weapon and uses that to bring down a squadron but debris gets in an inlet, crippling Pika-Don and he's forced to eject, surviving but losing the plane.

Analog cover attached. It's by Frank Kelly Freas.

By the way, if you're interested in anachronistic war fiction, have a look at John Birmingham's Axis of Time stories.


A 21st century multinational naval battle group finds itself back in WWII. The flagship is the USS Hilary Clinton :D There's some irreverent Aussie humour there.

1940s American industry can accelerate development of the atomic bomb and build analogues of Chinooks, A-4s, F-86s, and B-52s.

*It is Japanese for 'Flash-Boom' - the appearance of the nuclear explosion over Hiroshima.
 

Attachments

  • 3845486066_a87b63c54a_h.jpg
    3845486066_a87b63c54a_h.jpg
    943.2 KB · Views: 5
Last edited:
C.S. Lewis reading the work of J.R.R. Tolkien said "Oh, no! Not another shitty elf!";:)
Meanwhile, Tolkein objected to Santa Claus appearing in Narnia.


Lewis and Tolkein remained good friends of course.
 
Off-off-topic:
C.S. Lewis reading the work of J.R.R. Tolkien said "Oh, no! Not another shitty elf!";:)
Not Hugo Dyson?
On one memorable occasion a small group had gathered in Lewis's rooms and were listening to Tolkien read the last installment of The Lord of the Rings. They were sitting there puffing on pipes and sipping tea when Hugo Dyson, who had been lounging on a sofa and growing increasingly bored with the proceedings, suddenly exclaimed: "Oh, fuck! Not another elf!"
If I remember correctly, Lewis very much encouraged Tolkien to complete The Lord of the Rings.
 
Seriously though...

'This changes everything' is one of the most overused examples of clickbait and it immediately triggers my humbug reflex. Things like AI will change the nature of warfare, but not all at once or even soon. Some commentators talking about the surprising emergence of drones in Ukraine have also observed that the war is very much a WWI style war of stalemate and attrition.

As William Gibson is prone to say, 'The future is here; it's just not evenly distributed.'

Much is made of 'asymmetric warfare' but it must be noted, however 'asymmetric' an innovation might be, it is still matched to the opponent. Nobody's bringing back crossbows and a mediaeval society cannot manufacture machine guns. The technological infrastructure that produces drones is the same technological infrastructure that that makes iPhones and F-35s. 'Asymmetry' is really more like water finding chinks in armour and paths of least resistance. It's not that scary or radical, it's just ungentlemanly - and Churchill definitely saw the potential of that with the SOE (supposedly some admiral said that of submarines - 'underhand and damned un-British!').

Regarding the match of one weapon to another, there's an sf story by Dean McLaughlin, 'Hawk Among the Sparrows' that ironically illustrates this issue. Through some timey-wimey wibbly-wobbly stuff, a modern fighter, callsign 'Pika-Don'* with all the bells and whistles - notably VTOL and Mach 3 capability - and its pilot find themselves in the skies over France in WWI. Thanks to the VTOL, he can actually land the thing, but there's no maintenance and limiting refuelling capability. A few literary workarounds later he can get it back in the air but finds that his radar and IR guided missiles can't track the German Fokkers because they're not hot enough and don't have enough metal in them to make significant targets for their little electronic brains. Finally he figures out that the sonic boom of his plane is itself a weapon and uses that to bring down a squadron but debris gets in an inlet, crippling Pika-Don and he's forced to eject, surviving but losing the plane.

Analog cover attached. It's by Frank Kelly Freas.

By the way, if you're interested in anachronistic war fiction, have a look at John Birmingham's Axis of Time stories.


A 21st century multinational naval battle group finds itself back in WWII. The flagship is the USS Hilary Clinton :D There's some irreverent Aussie humour there.

1940s American industry can accelerate development of the atomic bomb and build analogues of Chinooks, A-4s, F-86s, and B-52s.

*It is Japanese for 'Flash-Boom' - the appearance of the nuclear explosion over Hiroshima.
Other types of asymmetries must also be considered.

Technologically advanced societies have also developed social and ethical structures that prevent them from using their full destructive potential: Not using the atomic bomb during the Korean War, not bombing Hanoi during the Vietnam War, not giving a "disproportionate" response to the destruction of the Twin Towers in New York. While medieval societies have no problem in hijacking a plane by slitting the throat of the stewardess with a cutter and then crashing it into a building full of innocent people.

Perhaps this is the reason why ET does not yet consider us suitable to join the galactic club.





That reminds me of another story circulating these days among science fiction fans:

After receiving positive reports from the TMA-2 lunar probe in the Grand Galactic Council, it decides that our society has passed the filter of nuclear war and negotiations for admission to the greater community of higher civilizations must begin.

To this end, a humanoid-looking Rigelian with the unfortunate name of 1929 is sent to Earth.

The operation starts badly because the navigation system of his landing vehicle has been outdated since 1973 and he considers that the most important city on the planet in New York and that the ambassador must express himself in English.

The flying saucer lands in Central Park next to a Korean housewife who is feeding her baby and barely speaks English, the hatch opens, the ramp is lowered and 1929 tells her:

-"Lead me to your leader."

-¿…….?

Then a policeman named Hector Cifuentes appears running and stands there, trying to hide his weapon and not knowing what to do.

-"Lead me to your leader."

-"Sir, that will not be possible, our leader is undergoing medical treatment”.

-“Take me to the number two”.

-¿……!

-"You see, sir, if it's about some important matter, you'd better talk to a guy named Guterres who lives nearby”.
 
By the way, if you're interested in anachronistic war fiction, have a look at John Birmingham's Axis of Time stories.
I'm surprised about contemporary plots including time travel like something as simple as going for a walk by the neighbourhood. Also a XXI Century military force that can operate without any support (situation awareness/satellites/fuel/food/ordenance/spares) out of their time seems unlikely.

Where going a bit of topic with time travel, may be better considering a new thread for it?
 
I'm surprised about contemporary plots including time travel like something as simple as going for a walk by the neighbourhood. Also a XXI Century military force that can operate without any support (situation awareness/satellites/fuel/food/ordenance/spares) out of their time seems unlikely.

Where going a bit of topic with time travel, may be better considering a new thread for it?
Please. The author seriously assumed that in summer 1942 Stalin may make peace with Hitler just because up-timers brought him knowledge about Cold War.
 
Thank you. I live there. When those films were being made, you couldn't throw a stone without it splashing in the latte of someone working on them. A good many of my friends and students ended up working for Peter Jackson. I even got an offer myself but balked at the hours involved.
Anyone up for writing an epic (meaning boring and utterly irrelevant) book series called "The Ring of the Lords" - Bueller...?
 
I'm surprised about contemporary plots including time travel like something as simple as going for a walk by the neighbourhood. Also a XXI Century military force that can operate without any support (situation awareness/satellites/fuel/food/ordenance/spares) out of their time seems unlikely.

Where going a bit of topic with time travel, may be better considering a new thread for it?
Ya era hora!:D
 

Attachments

  • reloj-de-arena-decoracion-hogar.jpg
    reloj-de-arena-decoracion-hogar.jpg
    82.9 KB · Views: 1
Please. The author seriously assumed that in summer 1942 Stalin may make peace with Hitler just because up-timers brought him knowledge about Cold War.
Stalin was easy to fool, the Americans leaked to the Soviet embassy that the invasion of Guadalcanal would consist of only 5,000 marines, the Russians passed the information on to the Japanese who did not give enough importance to the raid until it was too late.
 
To change things in the past it is not necessary to send some idiots to go through hardships, it is enough to send a small capsule containing a designer genetic virus, calculated to kill only some members of a certain family without affecting anyone else.
 
'This changes everything' is one of the most overused examples of clickbait and it immediately triggers my humbug reflex. Things like AI will change the nature of warfare, but not all at once or even soon. Some commentators talking about the surprising emergence of drones in Ukraine have also observed that the war is very much a WWI style war of stalemate and attrition.
Just over the last weekend at a party someone apparently at least somewhat knowledgeable about history remarked in passing that with current conflicts trench warfare has made a comeback. Plus ça change...
 
Stalin was easy to fool, the Americans leaked to the Soviet embassy that the invasion of Guadalcanal would consist of only 5,000 marines, the Russians passed the information on to the Japanese who did not give enough importance to the raid until it was too late.
...I wouldn't even try to ask you from where you get this nonsence...
 
...I wouldn't even try to ask you from where you get this nonsence...
It is a serious book of military history that is politically impartial, its author is a professional military man who is little known in the Anglo-Saxon world, but I have no reason to doubt his information.
 

Attachments

  • 711.jpg
    711.jpg
    1.3 MB · Views: 2
  • 710.jpg
    710.jpg
    790 KB · Views: 3
  • 713.jpg
    713.jpg
    571.4 KB · Views: 3
  • 714.jpg
    714.jpg
    592.4 KB · Views: 3
It is a serious book of military history that is politically impartial, its author is a professional military man who is little known in the Anglo-Saxon world, but I have no reason to doubt his information.
Show me exactly the pages where he wrote that. And bear in mind, that being politically impartial (which you, by the way, isn't), does not imply being infallible. The book is quite old (1979) and could contain mistakes.
 
It is a serious book of military history that is politically impartial, its author is a professional military man who is little known in the Anglo-Saxon world, but I have no reason to doubt his information.
Ok, I found it:
Eran, de todos modos, ante una fuerza enemiga de 17 000 soldados, unos
refuerzos insignificantes para una guarnición compuesta por algunos centenares de
infantes, pero los diplomáticos norteamericanos en Moscú habían hecho saber
«confidencialmente» a los soviéticos que los efectivos desembarcados en
Guadalcanal no rebasaban los 2000 hombres y que una vez destruido el aeródromo se
retirarían. Los comunistas pronto se lo hicieron saber a los japoneses, que se lo
creyeron y continuaron enviando tropas a Nueva Guinea, como estaba previsto, pero
que descuidaron Guadalcanal hasta que fue demasiado tarde. Cuando se percataron
de la verdadera entidad de las fuerzas norteamericanas puestas en la isla, éstas ya
habían recibido tales refuerzos y pertrechos, que a los japoneses no sólo les resultó
imposible desalojarlas, sino que serían ellos mismos quienes tendrían que terminar
por marcharse.
In any case, in the face of an enemy force of 17,000 soldiers, they were insignificant reinforcements for a garrison of a few hundred infantrymen, but American diplomats in Moscow had informed the Soviets "confidentially" that the troops landed on Guadalcanal did not exceed 2,000 men and that once the airfield was destroyed they would withdraw. The Communists soon informed the Japanese, who believed them and continued to send troops to New Guinea as planned, but neglected Guadalcanal until it was too late. When they realized the true size of the American forces on the island, they had already received such reinforcements and supplies that not only was it impossible for the Japanese to dislodge them, but they themselves would have to leave in the end.
No sources are given, so I would recommend to took this with a big grain of salt. The whole story just looks like rumors. There is no logical reason why would Stalin in summer 1942 leak such information to Japanese (unless, of course, he was specifically asked to help dupe the Japanese intelligence); the military situation for USSR was still rather bad, the possibility of Japan declaring war against USSR was still pretty realistic, and Stalin have absolutely no reasons to help Japan.
 
Last edited:

 
Last edited:
Ok, I found it:


No sources are given, so I would recommend to took this with a big grain of salt. The whole story just looks like rumors. There is no logical reason why would Stalin in summer 1942 leak such information to Japanese (unless, of course, he was specifically asked to help dupe the Japanese intelligence); the military situation for USSR was still rather bad, the possibility of Japan declaring war against USSR was still pretty realistic, and Stalin have absolutely no reasons to help Japan.
The world of spies always has two sides;)
 

Attachments

  • images.jpg
    images.jpg
    10 KB · Views: 0
This is a bit worrying
 
Couldn't say...there should be a link at the bottom of the article.

Faraday cage with laser com might help.

computing news


New book

Now this really makes me mad
 
Last edited:

Similar threads

Please donate to support the forum.

Back
Top Bottom