Arrow Weapon System

Arrow 3, people, discuss it or take the discussion elsewhere.
 
Is there any indication yet as to how many Arrow 3s the IDF fired at Iranian ballistic missiles?
 
NMaude said:
Is there any indication yet as to how many Arrow 3s the IDF fired at Iranian ballistic missiles?
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This is a good point. Based on the fact there were 120 BMs, 36 CMs and 185 drones, that's only 341 objects total. If an Arrow 3 costs $3.5m, then unless an Arrow 3 was fired at every single once of them, these estimates of $1-1.3bn do not hold water. Even if an Arrow 3 was used on every BM, that's $420m, and assuming a David's Sling ($1m) for the other 221 missiles/drones, that's only $640m. And we know some drones were shot down with APKWS and Sidewinder outside Israel. So the total cost was likely nearer $500m.

Now given that Iran used 50 MRBMs, plus 70 SRBMs, plus 36 CMs and 185 large drones, what's the bet that cost something similar? And last I looked Israel's GDP is ~25% higher than Iran's.

Archibald said:
From another thread (source @Grey Havoc )
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Former financial advisor to the IDF Chief of General Staff estimates a cost of about 4-5 billion NIS, or 1-1.3 billion USD.

https://www.ynet.co.il/economy/article/rkl6kwygr

This is not sustainable. This is 5% of the IDF's annual budget spent in one night.

A single David's Sling missile costs $1 million. A single Arrow costs $3.5 million without specifying the variant (likely Arrow 2).

He estimates the cost for Iran was about 10% of that.
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Forest Green said:
This is a good point. Based on the fact there were 120 BMs, 36 CMs and 185 drones, that's only 341 objects total. If an Arrow 3 costs $3.5m, then unless an Arrow 3 was fired at every single once of them, these estimates of $1-1.3bn do not hold water. Even if an Arrow 3 was used on every BM, that's $420m, and assuming a David's Sling ($1m) for the other 221 missiles/drones, that's only $640m. And we know some drones were shot down with APKWS and Sidewinder outside Israel. So the total cost was likely nearer $500m.

Now given that Iran used 50 MRBMs, plus 70 SRBMs, plus 36 CMs and 185 large drones, what's the bet that cost something similar? And last I looked Israel's GDP is ~25% higher than Iran's.
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Plus, Israel has options for international sourcing of components that Iran doesn't. Or, if Iran does, has to spend a lot more for them due to needing to smuggle them in. I've heard that the markup on smuggled goods is usually upwards of 200%.
 
Germany is buying Arrow 4 to complement their Arrow 3 systems

The Air Force has decided to procure Arrow 4 air defense system currently in development in Israel. This is what the deputy inspector of the Luftwaffe, Lieutenant General Lutz Kohlhaus, said this today in his opening speech at the Ground Based Air Defence Summit of CPM GmbH in Berlin.
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www.hartpunkt.de

Bundeswehr will israelisches Waffensystem Arrow 4 beschaffen

Die Luftwaffe hat sich dazu entschieden, dass gegenwärtig in Israel in Entwicklung befindliche Luftverteidigungssystem Arrow 4 zu beschaffen.
www.hartpunkt.de www.hartpunkt.de
 
NMaude said:
There's an Arrow 4? That's news to me.
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Not yet. But there will be, quite soon. Given how important BMD is for Israel and the 2nd wind from customers.

Development of Arrow 4 was first reported in 2017.
www.defensenews.com

Israel begins concept work on Arrow-4 defender

Israel is working with state-owned Israel Aerospace Industries and other firms to evaluate technologies needed to improve the ability to track, target and ultimately destroy threats.
www.defensenews.com www.defensenews.com

Development of Arrow 5 was briefly mentioned in 2023.
www.calcalist.co.il

העסקה הביטחונית הגדולה בתולדות המדינה: אושרה מכירת חץ 3 לגרמניה בכ-14 מיליארד ש' | כלכליסט

זו הפעם הראשונה שמערכת הנשק המתקדמת מיוצאת לחו"ל. ההתעניינות של גרמניה במערכת של התעשייה האווירית עלתה דרמטית בעקבות פלישת רוסיה לאוקראינה. לדברי מנכ"ל תע"א, בועז לוי, פיתוח הדורות הבאים של מערכת ההגנה מפני טילים נמצאת בעיצומה ולא תופרע בשל הפניית משאבים
www.calcalist.co.il www.calcalist.co.il

Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 both comprise the AWS - Arrow Weapon System.
Arrow 3 covers the exo-atmospheric region and Arrow 2 the upper atmospheric region. Below them are David's Sling and until recently Patriot.

In contrast with the Hartpunkt report, which I may have mistranslated, Arrow 4 is a replacement of Arrow 2, not its evolution.
Similarly Arrow 5 is a replacement of Arrow 3.
Because the 2023 article says IAI is developing Arrow 5 from its own funds, it indicates very early, perhaps conceptual stage of development. But Arrow 4 is supposed to be right around the corner, and by the time Arrow 3 are delivered to Germany in critical mass - it could be ready for production as well.
 
Big_Zukini said:
Arrow 4 is supposed to be right around the corner, and by the time Arrow 3 are delivered to Germany in critical mass - it could be ready for production as well.
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Arrow 4 plans for FY25 now include tests and component orders in preparation for initial production.
It seems like Arrow 4 could indeed make it in time for a parallel procurement with Arrow 3 to Germany.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1939670256009568411
 
Can we please change the name of this thread to "Arrow Weapon System"?

Source:

Description of AWS development beyond Block 5 reveals new components about it and Block 5:
1751380167085.png
  1. ABEWS (Airborne Early Warning System) - likely referring to Israel's 122 Squadron operating 3 Nachshon type aircraft for SIGINT and AEW&C missions.
    It could also include the Sky Dew system operating an EL/M-2083 radar, deployed in 2 points across Israel.
    1751380516649.png
  2. Sharp Eye - likely an optical system, given the numerous ground based radar types (AN/TPY-2, EL/M-2080 Green Pine and Super Green Pine, EL/M-2084 MMR), and the naming which indicates very high discrimination reserved to high frequencies.
  3. Pine Woods radar - Likely an evolution of the EL/M-2080S Super Green Pine to fulfill its task.

This info here gives further basis to "Sharp Eye" being an optical sensor system.
1751381349146.png

Increased budget in 2026, could indicate some acceleration of restocking.
1751381451780.png

4 flight tests per year planned through 2030
1751381572064.png
 

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Forest Green said:
Will it use the same launchers as the 3?
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It seems reasonable to assume that Arrow 4 will have a unique launcher. Here's why:

Top - Arrow 4.
Bottom - Arrow 3.

You can see the Arrow 4 has 2 stages and fins. Arrow 3 has a single atmospheric stage and a flare. So Arrow 4 is likely longer and requires wider launchers.
1764846804156.png

1764846822943.png

The Arrow 4 replaces the Arrow 2, and we can see that it is both wider and longer than the Arrow 3.
We can also see that Arrow 2 has stubbier fins and a 1st stage flare, making it potentially more compact than Arrow 4.
1764847017147.png


It is possible that Arrow 4's fins are foldable, but that indicates a boxy, not round launcher.
 
Something interesting about the German acquisition.
In 2023 the deal was valued at $3.5 billion.
In 2025 the deal is valued at $4.5 billion.

www.euronews.com

Germany activates Arrow 3 missile defence system bought from Israel

Israel has long relied on a multilayered missile defence system, including the Arrow, to protect communities around the country from rocket barrages from militants in Gaza and Lebanon.
www.euronews.com www.euronews.com

Delivery in record time (largely thanks to German insistence on buying it as-is), no reports of programmatic failures and cost overruns.
An extra $1 billion doesn't magically emerge.

I'm assuming the extra went into the Arrow 4 which Germany requested.
 
Arrow 3 contract to expand by $3.1 billion to a total of $6.7 billion.
https://twitter.com/x/status/2001322509543546973

As part of the contract expansion, the IMOD and the BMVg have agreed to significantly increase the production rate of Arrow 3 interceptors and launchers to be supplied to Germany, substantially enhancing its air and missile defense capabilities.

Under the IMOD's strategy led by Defense Minister, Israel Katz, and IMOD Director General Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amir Baram, the expansion of defense exports - including the Arrow contract - will significantly enhance the IDF's force build-up and strengthen Israel's defense industry and economy.
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The 2nd paragraph implies the manufacturing expansion is done within established sites in Israel and the US. During the course of the war, Germany imposed an arms embargo on Israel. It was mostly symbolic because for this reason European defense exports to Israel are individually very low.
It is however a good reason to bet against manufacturing of critical items in an easily disruptible source.

Localized manufacturing in Germany can still happen in the future, but political developments lower the chances of that.

JVs that Europeanize manufacturing do exist for items like PULS, Trophy, and Spike. But these are items the IDF does not consider as critical or likely to be in shortage of.
 
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Big_Zukini said:
The 2nd paragraph implies the manufacturing expansion is done within established sites in Israel and the US. During the course of the war, Germany imposed an arms embargo on Israel. It was mostly symbolic because for this reason European defense exports to Israel are individually very low.
It is however a good reason to bet against manufacturing of critical items in an easily disruptible source.

Localized manufacturing in Germany can still happen in the future, but political developments lower the chances of that.

JVs that Europeanize manufacturing do exist for items like PULS, Trophy, and Spike. But these are items the IDF does not consider as critical or likely to be in shortage of.
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I could see Israel allowing a JV to build missiles in Germany, mostly for German or other European use without messing with deliveries to Israel.
 
Scott Kenny said:
I could see Israel allowing a JV to build missiles in Germany, mostly for German or other European use without messing with deliveries to Israel.
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Current manufacturing is inadequate IMO. Iran just manufactures so much more MRBMs than Israel and the US manufacture Arrow 3 and THAAD. This forces Israel into an aggressive stance no matter what it prefers.

I think the most reasonable opening for a JV would be Arrow 4 and 5, which include an Arrow 3 replacement.

The joint R&D with the US might impose some limitations on that though.
 
What I'm wondering here is about the radars. Will any more be installed, or do the existing ones cover everything? How far away can we deploy AWS-G missiles without expecting a degradation of their capabilities?

From the article:
The amendment to the contract aims to increase the number of launchers and guided missiles for the Arrow Weapon System Germany (AWG). Previously, the plan envisioned three deployment locations for Arrow. This expansion could double that number. Israel has pledged to significantly increase the production rate of the Arrow 3 interceptors and launchers to be delivered to Germany.

https://esut.de/2025/12/meldungen/l...s-arrow-regierungsvertrags-ist-unterzeichnet/
 
kqcke for you said:
What I'm wondering here is about the radars. Will any more be installed, or do the existing ones cover everything? How far away can we deploy AWS-G missiles without expecting a degradation of their capabilities?

From the article:
The amendment to the contract aims to increase the number of launchers and guided missiles for the Arrow Weapon System Germany (AWG). Previously, the plan envisioned three deployment locations for Arrow. This expansion could double that number. Israel has pledged to significantly increase the production rate of the Arrow 3 interceptors and launchers to be delivered to Germany.

https://esut.de/2025/12/meldungen/l...s-arrow-regierungsvertrags-ist-unterzeichnet/
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Relevant info I found:


Jul 29, 2021
The Federal Office of Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology and In-Service Support (BAAINBw) has placed an order for the delivery and installation of four long-range radars worth approximately 200 million euros as part of the "Hughes Air Defence Radar Nachfolgesystem" (HADR NF) program.

For this purpose, Hensoldt has entered into a cooperation in the field of BMD-capable long-range radars with IAI subsidiary, ELTA Systems Ltd. The HADR NF system operates in the S-band, allowing for precise target acquisition compared with other systems. Thanks IAI's cooperation, the German customer will receive a combination of a national partner in system integration, certification and long-term support, as well as concept proven, market perfected systems.


I also know that the EL/M-2080S Super Green Pine is said to have a range of 900km, in sources from 2012 when it entered service.
Today one can also detect launches via satellites, extend range with aerial platforms.
And of course the American AN/TPY-2 system has been integrated with Israel's Missile Defense Organization structure and system, which means it can be deployed by the US to bolster German AWS seamlessly.
 
kqcke for you said:
What I'm wondering here is about the radars. Will any more be installed, or do the existing ones cover everything? How far away can we deploy AWS-G missiles without expecting a degradation of their capabilities?

From the article:
The amendment to the contract aims to increase the number of launchers and guided missiles for the Arrow Weapon System Germany (AWG). Previously, the plan envisioned three deployment locations for Arrow. This expansion could double that number. Israel has pledged to significantly increase the production rate of the Arrow 3 interceptors and launchers to be delivered to Germany.

https://esut.de/2025/12/meldungen/l...s-arrow-regierungsvertrags-ist-unterzeichnet/
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How many THAAD radars were planned in Germany? That's probably the same broad sensor range we're talking about.
 

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