Grey Havoc

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Security co-operation is high on the agenda, but the alliance, known by its French acronym AES, will also look towards forming closer economic ties, including the aim of creating a common currency. This would be a rejection of the France-backed CFA Franc, which is used in many states across the region.

All three countries have expelled French soldiers who were there as part of an anti-jihadist mission and turned towards Russia for military assistance.

Calls for greater sovereignty and a rejection of the former colonial power have been a key part of the rhetoric coming from the junta leaders.

The countries have also resisted calls from Ecowas for a rapid return to civilian rule.

View: https://x.com/CapitaineIb226/status/1809583603124158638
 
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I think the most disturbing proposal is dumping the CFA Franc, which is a stable currency pegged to the Euro. I hope these young military men prove me wrong, but generally speaking, African countries that adopt an independent monetary policy spiral into inflation or hyperinflation. It’s very difficult for small, developing countries to have a responsible monetary policy. Assuming a typical balance of payments deficit, the best you can hope for is a controlled annual devaluation.

As far as the political shift, I’m not sure who is paying for the mercenaries? What I do know is that exiting the CFA Franc will release the currency reserves held on deposit in Europe. Potentially a big one-time payday for someone.

Or maybe these military leaders will follow good economic advice
 
While they did announce a 'joint anti-jihadist force' back in 2024, with supposedly 5,000 troops ready as of January of this year, there doesn't seem to be much hard info available on new equipment procurements, Russian sourced or otherwise, yet.


 
From back in February of this year, a clue to some of their equipment:
https://www.wathi.org/laboratoire/tribune/la-turquie-la-diplomatie-des-drones-au-sahel/ (In French)

Translated excerpt:
The Turkish arms industry is booming, with many African countries among its customers. This growth is due in part to Turkey's desire to become self-sufficient in defense, a goal born of embargoes imposed by its European and American allies . Faced with major security challenges, military regimes in the Sahel are intensifying their use of drones to strengthen their defense capabilities. Turkey, through its company Baykar, has established itself as a strategic military partner in the region. Its drones, notably the Bayraktar TB2 and the Bayraktar Akinci , are not only combat tools. They are part of a diplomacy of influence aimed at strengthening ties with Sahelian military regimes. Capable of both targeted strikes and real-time surveillance, these drones offer a tailored response to the asymmetric threats posed by non-state armed groups.

The sale of drones is part of Turkey's broader strategy to become a major player in the global defense industry. The Sahel countries represent a market for these exports. Through these technological means, Turkey is positioning itself as an alternative to traditional powers, notably France, whose presence in the region is hotly contested. This approach is not limited to the simple sale of equipment; it also encompasses military training, notably through the private military company SADAT , in a regional context marked by the use of private military companies, as well as technical support and long-term strategic partnerships. This model strengthens Turkey's presence in Africa while supporting the development of its defense industry and its diplomatic outreach.

It will be interesting to see how ongoing tensions with Algeria will influence procurements in the near term.

Some background from back in April:
 
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