A Submarine War In The Pacific ?

What do modern nuclear submarines do? Or more accurately, what do modern nuclear submarines do in a high-intensity war with a near-peer nation-state?
Despite many here presenting dated opinions like hurr durr Chinese submarines loud, they present a very real submerged threat. Dealing with that threat is the primary domain of submarines, and coverage will be disconcertingly thin.
 
Despite many here presenting dated opinions like hurr durr Chinese submarines loud, they present a very real submerged threat. Dealing with that threat is the primary domain of submarines, and coverage will be disconcertingly thin.

True, China has about 7 SSBN and 9 SSN and USN SSNs will be tasked with marking them. However IIUC the USN Pac Fleet has about 30 SSNs so should be able to both mark (sink) these Chinese subs and enforce a blockade.

The mere threat of SSNs in the Falklands led to the Argentinians withdrawing merchant ships from supplying the islands and switching to a (quite impressive given the circumstances) 10 day airlift. The Argentine Navy went to sea until the Belgrano was sunk, and there were 2 merchant ships in Port Stanley when Black Buck 1 caused them to leave. The SSNs then enforced a blockade at the 12 mile limit rather than hunt the diesel submarine San Luis despite it conducting a couple of torpedo attacks.
 
True, China has about 7 SSBN and 9 SSN and USN SSNs will be tasked with marking them. However IIUC the USN Pac Fleet has about 30 SSNs so should be able to both mark (sink) these Chinese subs and enforce a blockade.
(1)if there are any base defenses, submarine combat doesn't work this way. It isn't HEMA. Well maintained submarine of reasonable acoustic signature(no need for world beater) and with competent crew will be quite hard to catch in areas w/o absolute air superiority.
Recent and incoming chinese air developments(5 or 6 gen regardless), frankly speaking, leave up in the air if current blue asw ecosystem up to 2nd chain can survive wartime attrition at all.

(2)Chinese acoustic infrastructure (seabed installations, surtass, coastal patrol fixed wing/helicopoter aviation) and escort forces in SCS/ECS are so extensive that direct tailing from bases/narrows just won't apply. "Even" with current state of affairs survival in Chinese "bastions", especially if Taiwan is neutralized, is quite hard.

(3)9 is number of 09IIIB type SSNs finishing construction as of 08.25(since 2022; i.e. some are in service, it's just hard to tell through OSINT how many exactly). I.e. your number will be significantly outdated even if conflict begins right now. Realistic numbers for 2027 are high 2x boats, and up to 40(!) for 2030.
Moreover, saturating small areas close to enemy bases(i.e. maximum consentration of ASW assets in environment best known to opponent) with SSNs will arguably do more to increase loss rates, not success rates.

(4)there is also many times the number(compared to SSN) of modern SSKs on top. Not counting them for action within related seas is frankly wrong.

(5)commitments of even US pacific fleets aren't limited to PLAN. It, at least right now, isn't even the most important one yet. Even with neutral Russia and calm DPRK(building SSBNs as we speak), those won't go. Allied fleets can't do this job.
 
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The US Navy would need new capabilities to wage unrestricted submarine warfare against the Chinese; and honestly, that's the stupidest way to interdict Chinese shipping. 50 SSNs and 1,000 Mk48s (publically provided inventory; total production since 1980 is reportedly 3,000 torps) isn't very much against the Chinese merchant fleet of many thousand large cargo ships and >100,000 smaller ships, oceangoing barges, fishing boats with crates on them etc (remember, the USN was sinking Marus - little junks, barges, coastal traffic - in WW2 by the hundreds!). Smaller torpedoes, JDAMs, Quicksink, mines, AUVs and so on will be far more critical for commerce raiding.
Public expenditure of torpedoes is on the order of 3-4 warshots a year, let's call it 10 total for exercise torpedoes lost as well. (Each Mk48 gets shot multiple times as an exercise torpedo before it graduates and gets a warhead installed, so Extorps get shot a lot.)

That'd be more like 2500 Mk48s in inventory between all users. Still not enough, but much better.

Hopefully the Virginia FCS (BSY2?) is easily updatable to talk to other makes of torpedoes. 688 and 726 definitely is NOT easy to update.
 
Returning to the main question — as you yourself point out, even if torpedoes are not used, cheap and plentiful aerial and naval munitions will be employed. Aircraft and submarines will also mine the coastal waters.
Admiral Paparo has stated that the Chinese have air superiority over the first island chain. Now, air superiority is not an absolute, the USAF can and will deploy suppression of enemy air defenses, jamming, and other means to contest that air superiority and deliver penetrating blows, potentially with fairly impressive strike packages.

However, for the kind of economic commerce war that is being discussed, you may need air superiority to deliver a great weight of bombs. You need mass.

Even with modern smart munitions, you may be potentially looking at several hundred sorties to deploy several thousand mobile mines from B-21s. These minefields will have to be continuously replenished in the face of Chinese sweeping. One expects significant attrition to even the B-21 force with that kind of sortie rate into defended airspace - five percent is the historically accepted norm.

The elephant in the room is that at present, none of these weapons exist in quantity and will have to be developed or matured (as far as open sources are concerned).

New capabilities.
the primary objective of the United States will be to crush the Chinese landing on Taiwan and to deploy its own reinforcements on the island. Therefore, apart from blocking the routes between China and Taiwan, they will not be chasing every fishing boat in the region. There may even be the establishment of an operational zone, similar to what was done during the Falklands War
I do not believe the latter objective appearsly achievable for the USN. A US mechanized division requires several hundred thousand tons of shipping. The PLAN may lose sea control, the Chinese invasion force might falter, but it would be many months before Chinese forces could be sufficiently attritated in order to allow American infantry forces to be introduced into Formosa in strength. Of course, in the interim, they would probably stage through the Philippines and Japan, all the while under constant attack.

The United States probably does not have the strength in the Western Pacific to directly and immediately contest an attack on Taiwan. The Chinese possess over 1,000 reasonably good tactical aircraft and all the force multipliers of home base. As with the maritime strategy of the 1980s, which assumed some weeks to generate the multi-carrier CVBGs to enter Soviet Bastions, the United States will probably need to generate the forces to enter the region, which will take perhaps several weeks, as carrier battle groups move over from the Atlantic and aircraft stage through Hawaii. It would appear suicidal for the US Pacific Fleet to offer battle before being heavily reinforced, and expose the US Navy to defeat in detail. I would guess that it's a six flattop job at least, two groups.

The submarines will likely be targeting mainly invasion shipping, gathering intelligence, hunting SSBNs, attriting the Chinese Navy, and so on. They may well have their hands full.

We thought the same about Russia before 2022
Russia has not yet been defeated despite being economically outmatched approximately 30 to 1 and having the industry of a post Soviet state.

I find it strange to think that an economy 2/3 the size of the US that imports 80% of it's oil and 80% of that by sea through S.E.A., (not to mention the rest of it's global economic exposure) is going to sustain a high-intensity war of stealth fighters, hypersonics, space systems and the like with junks and coastal barges so small that they don't even register as merchant ships.
Chinese defense spending is only a small proportion of its gross domestic product. There is probably sufficient slack in the civilian industry to mobilize a lot of it for war and cannibalize a lot of it for war if necessary. This will not be painless to say the least, and while it is by no means a guarentee of victory as is sometimes trumpted--the world has marched on to means of war in addition to the industrial--it means a Pacific War could likely be conducted and waged for an extended period of time.

The real problems may well be the unknowns, particularly the ability of the United States to deliver unknown capabilities or extremely advanced multi-domain capabilities in the vein of the Israeli attack on Iran or the pager attack, as well as the fact that the United States military holds the ultimate trump card of nuclear escalation. Wunderwaffen have a checquered track record throughout history, but nuclear weapons might well do "better".
 
Admiral Paparo has stated that the Chinese have air superiority over the first island chain. Now, air superiority is not an absolute, the USAF can and will deploy suppression of enemy air defenses, jamming, and other means to contest that air superiority and deliver penetrating blows, potentially with fairly impressive strike packages.

However, for the kind of economic commerce war that is being discussed, you may need air superiority to deliver a great weight of bombs. You need mass.

Even with modern smart munitions, you may be potentially looking at several hundred sorties to deploy several thousand mobile mines from B-21s. These minefields will have to be continuously replenished in the face of Chinese sweeping. One expects significant attrition to even the B-21 force with that kind of sortie rate into defended airspace - five percent is the historically accepted norm.

The elephant in the room is that at present, none of these weapons exist in quantity and will have to be developed or matured (as far as open sources are concerned).

New capabilities.
Quickstrike is literally a different fuze for a Mk80-series bomb, and it's apparently even compatible with JDAM and JDAM-ER bits.

The US has ... many Mk80s available. And assuming Mk82, 500lb weapons, a single B-21 should be capable of delivering at least 40 weapons at a time. Seed that field with a few 2000lbers for excitement for the sweepers at 8x 2000lb weapons per B-21 and have fun.

Note that Mk80s are also very cheap as weapons go.



The United States probably does not have the strength in the Western Pacific to directly and immediately contest an attack on Taiwan. The Chinese possess over 1,000 reasonably good tactical aircraft and all the force multipliers of home base. As with the maritime strategy of the 1980s, which assumed some weeks to generate the multi-carrier CVBGs to enter Soviet Bastions, the United States will probably need to generate the forces to enter the region, which will take perhaps several weeks, as carrier battle groups move over from the Atlantic and aircraft stage through Hawaii. It would appear suicidal for the US Pacific Fleet to offer battle before being heavily reinforced, and expose the US Navy to defeat in detail. I would guess that it's a six flattop job at least, two groups.
Which is a bit of a problem for the US, as we only have 4 carriers at sea at one time in total. We could push 4 more out to sea in a surge, at the cost of cutting training very short for a couple of those carriers.



The submarines will likely be targeting mainly invasion shipping, gathering intelligence, hunting SSBNs, attriting the Chinese Navy, and so on. They may well have their hands full.
SUBFORCE is going to be screaming busy, yes. And I'd honestly expect the spooky side to lose out (or, well, get assigned to DEVRONs), to free up more boats for combat missions.

I'd expect some approximation of a wolfpack ripping through invasion shipping until all weapons are expended on a single pass through the mess, including using TacToms as AShCMs. Then the second wave arrives to replace the wolfpack to do the rest of the work list.



The real problems may well be the unknowns, particularly the ability of the United States to deliver unknown capabilities or extremely advanced multi-domain capabilities in the vein of the Israeli attack on Iran or the pager attack, as well as the fact that the United States military holds the ultimate trump card of nuclear escalation. Wunderwaffen have a checquered track record throughout history, but nuclear weapons might well do "better".
Hopefully we don't have to find out if nukes can avoid escalation.
 
Quickstrike is literally a different fuze for a Mk80-series bomb, and it's apparently even compatible with JDAM and JDAM-ER bits.

The US has ... many Mk80s available. And assuming Mk82, 500lb weapons, a single B-21 should be capable of delivering at least 40 weapons at a time. Seed that field with a few 2000lbers for excitement for the sweepers at 8x 2000lb weapons per B-21 and have fun.

Note that Mk80s are also very cheap as weapons go.
Quickstrike requires a B-21 or B-2 to deliver en masse, probably with escorts. Against invasion shipping or specific port channels, very devastating for a while, but the channels will be swept eventually (the snafus will be immense, you'll have huge ships blocking channels etc, but the Chinese are hardly going to just sit on their butts). Fresh mines will have to be laid, requiring more sorties into the teeth of outer air battle defenses (assuming that we're talking a campaign long enough - months - to attrit the Chinese industrial base, as opposed to just destroying the invasion fleet - days/weeks)

It's one of the best options for antiship and a counter-transportation campaign - far, far more sensible than trying to use submarines for commerce raiding.

Submarines in the Straits are going to be fighting into the teeth of a prepared ASW defense in prepared terrain with potential for traps; the stealth bombers are probably the main actors in that fight.
 
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The United States does not have many options if it intends to sever the route between mainland China and taiwan.

The maximum range of the Quickstrike and Quicksink with the Diamond Back kit, is only 100 kilometers, which poses a significant threat to their carrier—whether stealth or non-stealth.

Torpedo attacks and mine-laying are suitable tasks for submarines, but the waters near the Taiwan Strait are not ideal for submarine operations. Unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) can carry out torpedo attacks and mine-laying, but they have limited capacity for torpedoes and mines.

The only viable option is various types of long-range anti-ship missiles. What is the most threatening long-range anti-ship missile the United States currently has against the PLA? The AGM-158C LRASM. What is its range? Approximately 600 kilometers. This is not a particularly safe distance, especially for the current carrier of the LRASM. The number of LRASMs in the U.S. military's inventory is also quite limited. As of this year, the figure likely stands at around 500 to 600 missiles—a quantity that is far from substantial.
 
We thought the same about Russia before 2022 — perhaps not the most modern armed forces in the world, but with deep reserves seemingly capable of delivering a short-term shock to Europe and NATO’s eastern flank. Yet, as we now know, the king was naked and had to ask for help from Iran and North Korea.
Ukraine has Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramators'k and Slov'yans'k as the last layer defense known as the Maginot Line. These Cites are more or less "fortress cities" designed to hold on the front line for a very long time. https://www.understandingwar.org/ba...rtance-ukraine’s-fortress-belt-donetsk-oblast
The Russians are currently on the outskirts of the first city of Kramatorsk if they capture like 2 or more of these cities there is NOTHING but small villages for a hundred plus miles to stop the advance. If it gets to the point that they breached that defensive line that 10 to 1 ratio claim favoring Ukraine in less losses is going to have to be re-explained to the world how a country that had a 40 million population with billions spent on it with intel NATO support from 40 countries somehow collapsed from a force that didn't pass any mobilization law for their country.

Europe depleted most of their stocks for the war, they are having a migrant crisis and whatever the results of the war will be there might be terrorist attacks from pissed off Ukrainians. China buys gas from Russia and Europe pays 3 times the amount for the gas from China as they would from Russia which shows the effect of what sanctions have against Russia. To be fairly honest the only 3 military powers that can project war is U.S. Russia and China.
 
The maximum range of the Quickstrike and Quicksink with the Diamond Back kit, is only 100 kilometers, which poses a significant threat to their carrier—whether stealth or non-stealth.
Adding the turbofan engine (or even a pulsejet) for long cruise may help to increase the range up to 500-600 km, which is much better solution for offensive mining.
 
Hopefully the Virginia FCS (BSY2?) is easily updatable to talk to other makes of torpedoes. 688 and 726 definitely is NOT easy to update.
BSY-2 was Seawolf only and that pile of trash is long-gone, only the front-end remnants remain.

Everyone has BYG-1 now, even the Trident knuckleheads. Thankfully, we've finally successfully flushed most of the antiques out of the fleet. It wouldn't be that difficult to integrate new weapons (like the Mk58.)
 
We thought the same about Russia before 2022 — perhaps not the most modern armed forces in the world, but with deep reserves seemingly capable of delivering a short-term shock to Europe and NATO’s eastern flank. Yet, as we now know, the king was naked and had to ask for help from Iran and North Korea.
But when policy makers tried to base their policies on that - whole west committed to a war impossible to win, and now are straight on a path to lose(with whatever remains of their credibility) by consignment.
Frankly speaking, they already did, the question is just how badly.
US tries to get off hook, and entire Europe shows beautifully that there is (1)only one nation who would fight for Ukraine - Russia, and it's certainly a proper counterweight to entire Europe with US(judging by how utterly horrified Europe is, leaving any sense of pride behind). And (2), there's only one truly valuable and dependable ally in European affairs - and it's indeed North Korea. It, you know, will fight for you.

Too much laugher around tbh. It was funny before, but there's a limit after which even farce isn't funny anymore.
It must be remembered that the primary objective of the United States will be to crush the Chinese landing on Taiwan and to deploy its own reinforcements on the island.
Crushing primary operation by a ~world power level military requires extreme levels of forward deployment.
Forward deployment against China's mainland on a network of oceanic positions requires splitting the forces.
Splitting the forces in such situation invites strategic catastrophe through defeat in detail.

And all this comes from people daily reading Chinese military news on this forum - just..lagging in their admission and internal processing of that they already know.
 
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Submarines in the Straits are going to be fighting into the teeth of a prepared ASW defense in prepared terrain with potential for traps;
That's why I said one pass through and done.



The only viable option is various types of long-range anti-ship missiles. What is the most threatening long-range anti-ship missile the United States currently has against the PLA? The AGM-158C LRASM. What is its range? Approximately 600 kilometers. This is not a particularly safe distance, especially for the current carrier of the LRASM. The number of LRASMs in the U.S. military's inventory is also quite limited. As of this year, the figure likely stands at around 500 to 600 missiles—a quantity that is far from substantial.
You're forgetting Tomahawks. Current build is functional as an AShM. Doesn't have the penetrating warhead of the LRASM, but does have a larger stockpile.



BSY-2 was Seawolf only and that pile of trash is long-gone, only the front-end remnants remain.

Everyone has BYG-1 now, even the Trident knuckleheads. Thankfully, we've finally successfully flushed most of the antiques out of the fleet. It wouldn't be that difficult to integrate new weapons (like the Mk58.)
Hey, I resemble that remark! :D

Good to hear that everyone is on a good version of hardware/firmware/software (delete as appropriate), that is easy to integrate new weapons into.


Crushing primary operation by a ~world power level military requires extreme levels of forward deployment.
Forward deployment against China's mainland on a network of oceanic positions requires splitting the forces.
Splitting the forces in such situation invites strategic catastrophe through defeat in detail.
You mean like the US before WW2?

Yes, the US lost a whole lot of islands up through about 1942. Then we started taking them back because it was Japan that had occupied the network of oceanic positions, split forces, and then defeat in detail.
 
Good to hear that everyone is on a good version of hardware/firmware/software (delete as appropriate), that is easy to integrate new weapons into.
In their defense, they've been piddling around with Fisher Price My First Sonar for decades and we've only started putting Q10 on SSBN over the past few years. When I got out and shifted over to engineering, TI04 on SSGN was the first program I supported and they were awful too.

They got up to speed and I'm sure the Trident sonarmen will too.
 
You're forgetting Tomahawks. Current build is functional as an AShM. Doesn't have the penetrating warhead of the LRASM, but does have a larger stockpile.
The Tomahawk Block IV does possess limited anti-ship capabilities, but it requires guidance from other platforms to be directed to an area closer to the target before it can engage. This poses significant risks to the guiding platform.

In contrast, the LRASM, equipped with more and superior sensors, outperforms the Tomahawk Block IV in autonomous search and lock-on capabilities. It can be guided by other platforms or independently search for targets.

As for achieving LRASM-level capabilities with the Tomahawk missile, that will require waiting for the anti-ship version of the Tomahawk Block V, which is set to enter service either this year or next.

The survivability of the LRASM is also superior to that of the Tomahawk Block IV: it features stealth design and RWR, enabling better adaptability in high-threat environments.
 
The Tomahawk Block IV does possess limited anti-ship capabilities, but it requires guidance from other platforms to be directed to an area closer to the target before it can engage. This poses significant risks to the guiding platform.

In contrast, the LRASM, equipped with more and superior sensors, outperforms the Tomahawk Block IV in autonomous search and lock-on capabilities. It can be guided by other platforms or independently search for targets.

As for achieving LRASM-level capabilities with the Tomahawk missile, that will require waiting for the anti-ship version of the Tomahawk Block V, which is set to enter service either this year or next.

The survivability of the LRASM is also superior to that of the Tomahawk Block IV: it features stealth design and RWR, enabling better adaptability in high-threat environments.
Agreed that TacTom-as-AShM is very much not ideal at present, but it works and we have a significant number of them at sea right now.

Plus, I was honestly assuming sub-300km TacTom engagement ranges, and/or active flight control as the world's most expensive FPV "drone".
 
Agreed that TacTom-as-AShM is very much not ideal at present, but it works and we have a significant number of them at sea right now.

Plus, I was honestly assuming sub-300km TacTom engagement ranges, and/or active flight control as the world's most expensive FPV "drone".
It can't. SLAM-ER can, though...though with proliferation of LEO constellations, unless in global war, these capabilities will probably spread everywhere like a wildfire.
 
Should the U.S. genuinely seek to forcibly requisition the production capacity and manpower of the EU, Japan, and South Korea
By occupation in what would amount to WW3? I don't think the USA has the means to achieve that. Nuke them into oblivion - quite possibly, but then production capacity would be zero.
 
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