A Submarine War In The Pacific ?

[Felocie]

Blasting dams or levees was added to the Conventions after WW2.

I do not believe such conventions will hold in the next war. When backed into a corner animals tend to get desperate and if it means Taiwan has some form of MAD I do not believe it is beyond reason that they take it

 

[pagliacci]

I do not believe such conventions will hold in the next war. When backed into a corner animals tend to get desperate and if it means Taiwan has some form of MAD I do not believe it is beyond reason that they take it

I hate to say this, but it's not about whether they want to do it—it's about whether they can.

 

[Dilandu]

I do not believe such conventions will hold in the next war. When backed into a corner animals tend to get desperate and if it means Taiwan has some form of MAD I do not believe it is beyond reason that they take it

For what purpose? To turn forced unification into direct occupation with repecussions against Taiwanese population? Or swift destruction of Taiwanese population by several groundblasts bathing island in fallout?

 

[Felocie]

I hate to say this, but it's not about whether they want to do it—it's about whether they can.

I agree and I’d hold that it’s a near impossibility they’d be able to destroy the dam or even its associated infrastructure

 

[Felocie]

For what purpose? To turn forced unification into direct occupation with repecussions against Taiwanese population? Or swift destruction of Taiwanese population by several groundblasts bathing island in fallout?

Yeah, that’s the point of MAD

 

[Scott Kenny]

I agree and I’d hold that it’s a near impossibility they’d be able to destroy the dam or even its associated infrastructure

Destroying the dam is highly unlikely, IMO.

But a conventional attack destroying the transformer substation or a nuclear attack destroying the power generators and/or turbines themselves are viable. It'd take a MOAB or similar to produce enough ground shock to wipe out the generator and/or turbine bearings, and any conventional bomb strike would likely have to be so close as to destroy the generators directly anyways.

And the US demonstrated attacks taking out transformer substations in 2003. Conductive mylar ribbons and a tiny bursting charge, IIRC.

 

[Felocie]

Destroying the dam is highly unlikely, IMO.

But a conventional attack destroying the transformer substation or a nuclear attack destroying the power generators and/or turbines themselves are viable. It'd take a MOAB or similar to produce enough ground shock to wipe out the generator and/or turbine bearings, and any conventional bomb strike would likely have to be so close as to destroy the generators directly anyways.

And the US demonstrated attacks taking out transformer substations in 2003. Conductive mylar ribbons and a tiny bursting charge, IIRC.

I’m referring to a Taiwanese last resort attack, which is practically unlikely but I believe not beyond consideration if they can find a way. Taiwan lacks nukes but MAD has been an effective deterrent before

 

[chimeric oncogene]

Yeah, that’s the point of MAD

I don't think you quite understand who is probably deterred more here.

 

[Felocie]

I don't think you quite understand who is probably deterred more here.

You’re telling me, if the total defeat of Taiwan appears inevitable, they won’t consider attempting something drastic, laws of war be dammed?

 

[chimeric oncogene]

total defeat of Taiwan appears inevitable

What does total defeat mean for the defeated?

Liberty and death are not absolutes, but come in shades.

The inhabitants of Hong Kong and Macau, while variously subjugated, moderately disenfranchised, and subject to slow, grinding, inexorable soul-sucking "assimilation", remain beneficiaries of reasonable (even fairly high!) standards of living, and are not inhabitants of a radioactive wasteland or subject to even worse forms of erasure.

There is a choice here between two regrettable but nevertheless distinguishable postwar environments.

 

[Scott Kenny]

I’m referring to a Taiwanese last resort attack, which is practically unlikely but I believe not beyond consideration if they can find a way. Taiwan lacks nukes but MAD has been an effective deterrent before

And a conventional attack on the 3 Gorges power station would definitely be within the realms of deterrent.

Nobody keeps those giant transformers around, they have expected lifespans of centuries in the plural. The things are basically built on order. Blow up those transformers and it'll be a year or more before the power station is back online.

How much of China's industrial heartland is powered by 3 Gorges?

 

[chimeric oncogene]

And a conventional attack on the 3 Gorges power station would definitely be within the realms of deterrent.

Absolutely, but that's clearly not what the meme is about; most of Chinese infrastructure is going to be targets in a major conventional war.

The three gorges produces about ten gigawatts (twenty gigawatts is peak capacity, there's not enough river to supply the full twenty gigawatts year-round), China consumes somewhere in the ballpark of a thousand gigawatts on average and possesses over three thousand gigawatts of generating capacity (granted, a lot of that's renewables which are not dispatchable and have capacity factors like 0.2). It's a drop in the bucket these days.

Sichuan has like ninety gigawatts of installed hydro capacity out of something like 130 GW of capacity provincewide; there are many more dams other than the Three Gorges.

 

[Scott Kenny]

The three gorges produces about ten gigawatts (twenty gigawatts is peak capacity, there's not enough river to supply the full twenty gigawatts year-round), China consumes somewhere in the ballpark of a thousand gigawatts on average. It's a drop in the bucket these days.

Sure, but the question is how much of that is feeding industry, versus how much is feeding housing.

To make a comparison: The dams on the Columbia River provide a hell of a lot of electrical power that basically all went to the aluminum refineries around Spokane, WA. Now, of course, the refineries are gone, moved to Iceland where the geothermal power is even cheaper than $0.057/kWh. And have been gone since roughly the 1970s. So all those gigawatts go to cities.

During WW2, if you had somehow breached those dams, you would have put a HUGE damper on the production of aircraft. Today, all you'd do is annoy a lot of liberal Americans.​

 

[Dilandu]

You’re telling me, if the total defeat of Taiwan appears inevitable, they won’t consider attempting something drastic, laws of war be dammed?

You seems to fail to realize, that even total defeat for Taiwan is mostly the loss of political independence. It's not "life and death" matter even for the majority of Taiwanese elites. They have very little insensitive to escalate the situation to the point when angry Chinese may actually consider their extermination.

 

[Rule of cool]

You seems to fail to realize, that even total defeat for Taiwan is mostly the loss of political independence. It's not "life and death" matter even for the majority of Taiwanese elites. They have very little insensitive to escalate the situation to the point when angry Chinese may actually consider their extermination.

The same could be said for NATO during the Cold War, yet they were nuked up to the eyeballs in order to prevent that.

Breaching the 3 Gorges dam, likely killing millions, is an example of an ultimate deterrent. There is nothing on Taiwan worth risking that for. Much like there was nothing in Britain worth eating 16-32 Polaris for in the 70s and 80s.

 

[Dilandu]

The same could be said for NATO during the Cold War, yet they were nuked up to the eyeballs in order to prevent that.

A big difference - there were significant, almost incompatible, ideological and economical differences between Eastern and Western blocks. There are little to none such differences between Taiwan and China. Not to mention, Taiwan isn't exactly a global superpower.

 

[Scott Kenny]

A big difference - there were significant, almost incompatible, ideological and economical differences between Eastern and Western blocks. There are little to none such differences between Taiwan and China. Not to mention, Taiwan isn't exactly a global superpower.

You do remember that Taiwan is the last surviving members of the democratic 1912 Republic of China, right? They have serious beef with the People's Republic of China.

 

[Felocie]

And a conventional attack on the 3 Gorges power station would definitely be within the realms of deterrent.

Nobody keeps those giant transformers around, they have expected lifespans of centuries in the plural. The things are basically built on order. Blow up those transformers and it'll be a year or more before the power station is back online.

How much of China's industrial heartland is powered by 3 Gorges?

Good point

You seems to fail to realize, that even total defeat for Taiwan is mostly the loss of political independence. It's not "life and death" matter even for the majority of Taiwanese elites. They have very little insensitive to escalate the situation to the point when angry Chinese may actually consider their extermination.

I've read predictions that the majority of fighting will be conducted by a very small, ultranationalist portion of the population. I do not believe the majority consensus will play much when an invasion begins. I also believe it is a far bit harder to predict what will happen than "they will surrender because it's just about their political independence" and the like. Remember when similar was said about Ukraine? Russia is now in their third year of a 3 day "special military operation" for a variety of reasons including the unexpected will to fight and preserve what the Ukrainians had

 

[SspewixzzZ]

Breaching the 3 Gorges dam, likely killing millions, is an example of an ultimate deterrent.

I don't understand why people are so obsessed with the Three Gorges Dam... It's a gravity dam, like a mountain lying there, and even a nuclear bomb may not be able to bring it down.

As for Taiwan, it’s really not that important.The US dual-carrier strike group didn't entered the South China Sea, so it's certainly not likely to enter Taiwan—compared to the South China Sea, which controls over half of China's shipping routes and the vast majority of its energy resources, Taiwan is not that much important.
I’m not going to quote Chinese leaders’ remarks leaked by some media or the US President here... but I still think that 2027 will be a sparse and ordinary year. PLA really has no reason to rush to take action for Taiwan.

 

[Rule of cool]

A big difference - there were significant, almost incompatible, ideological and economical differences between Eastern and Western blocks. There are little to none such differences between Taiwan and China. Not to mention, Taiwan isn't exactly a global superpower.

I'd suggest the differences between China and Taiwan are much greater than those between Russia and Ukraine, yet those two have been going at it for years with over a million of dead and wounded on both sides and millions more displaced. I doubt Xi's brand of authoritarian government would be considered a minor change to the Taiwanese with decades of democracy under their belts.

 

[SspewixzzZ]

I'd suggest the differences between China and Taiwan are much greater than those between Russia and Ukraine, yet those two have been going at it for years with over a million of dead and wounded on both sides and millions more displaced. I doubt Xi's brand of authoritarian government would be considered a minor change to the Taiwanese with decades of democracy under their belts.

I suggest return to the discussion of military. It is easy for political discussions to diverge excessively, especially when there are several so-called "authoritarian victims" Chinese people here

 

[Rule of cool]

I don't know if it's well known, but Darwin NT is a terrible base for submarines because the water is so shallow that a submerged submarine can be seen visually during the day from an aircraft. The nearest deep water for a submerged sub to hide is a deep trench south of Timor, some 500km from Darwin, too far for a speed run in a single night. Perth WA is he best place to base subs from an underwater perspective, which is why the USN based boats there in WW2 and will again in the near future.

The Perth base is why the RAN wants SSNs in lieu of 12 diesel subs, to cover the long transit from base to the patrol area in the SW Pacific.

 

[Felocie]

I don't know if it's well known, but Darwin NT is a terrible base for submarines because the water is so shallow that a submerged submarine can be seen visually during the day from an aircraft. The nearest deep water for a submerged sub to hide is a deep trench south of Timor, some 500km from Darwin, too far for a speed run in a single night. Perth WA is he best place to base subs from an underwater perspective, which is why the USN based boats there in WW2 and will again in the near future.

The Perth base is why the RAN wants SSNs in lieu of 12 diesel subs, to cover the long transit from base to the patrol area in the SW Pacific.

On top of that the constant need for diesel electric submarines to snort in the shallow seas surrounding our North West is a serious threat during high tempo ops (basically anything other than special missions and special operations transport)

 

[Rule of cool]

On top of that the constant need for diesel electric submarines to snort in the shallow seas surrounding our North West is a serious threat during high tempo ops (basically anything other than special missions and special operations transport)

The indiscretion rate of the Collins class is so small that AIP adds virtually no extra capability. IIUC in normal operation the Collins only needs to snort 20 minutes a day, and a very low charge can be made good in about an hour. There's plenty of hours at night where this can be done without being seen visually.

 

[BonPlan2]

How do you know PLAN has poor ASW and submarine warfare training. The PLAN after 2015 is a completely different army from the one before.

The PLAN is developing new SSNs. From the available information, the next generation of SSNs that will be put into production soon will use X-tail rudders, pump jet and electric propulsion systems. And the next generation of anti-submarine aircraft has also begun test flights.

China is now the world's largest industrial country (no longer a low-end industry) and the second largest economy. However, China's R&D funding utilization rate is much higher than that of the United States. The PLAN currently has no shortage of R&D funds or engineers, just like the PLAAF, and the PLAN is developing rapidly.

Not a single navy has the SSN experience of US navy.
And it is even earlier than Nautilus : USN won the pacific WW2 battle mainly thanks to its SSK (because they destroyed nearly all the commercial japan navy). It is THE ASSET of USN, before their carriers.
Carriers are usefull to gesticulate and for air to surface or gound missions. The PLAN real killer is USN SSN fleet.

 

[BonPlan2]

And an invasion of Taiwan will result in the destruction of the high end chip fabs.

Agree.
And it is why uncle Sam will never allow that.

 

[TwoTribes]

Agree.
And it is why uncle Sam will never allow that.

Trump is very clever; he had already thought of what you are considering. He has extorted $300 billion in investments from TSMC, which is enough to build four or five of the most advanced wafer fabs in the United States. Hundreds of TSMC elites have already been relocated to the U.S. by the company. Perhaps one day, TSMC will become ASMC. There are also rumors that the U.S. government may coerce TSMC to save the struggling Intel. So, no need to worry—Trump is the smartest U.S. president! Thank you for your attention to this matter.

 

[TwoTribes]

Not a single navy has the SSN experience of US navy.
And it is even earlier than Nautilus : USN won the pacific WW2 battle mainly thanks to its SSK (because they destroyed nearly all the commercial japan navy). It is THE ASSET of USN, before their carriers.
Carriers are usefull to gesticulate and for air to surface or gound missions. The PLAN real killer is USN SSN fleet.

The U.S. Navy can only blockade the activities of China's merchant fleet in distant waters (such as the Indian Ocean, the coasts of Africa, the Atlantic, and the Mediterranean), but it cannot stop China's merchant fleet from operating in its coastal waters, such as the South China Sea.

Vessels from Southeast Asia and South Asia will carry minerals and oil from Africa and the Middle East into the South China Sea, transferring their goods to Chinese vessels or trains bound for China at ports or even at sea. Similarly, China's semi-finished products and components will be transported to factories in Southeast Asia and South Asia in the same (or "reverse") manner. After assembly, these goods will be sold worldwide by Southeast Asian and South Asian vessels.

Will the United States destroy or capture every Indian cargo ship that might sail to China? Can it identify every Chinese component in every Vietnamese television set?

I do not deny that China's imports and exports would significantly decrease due to a U.S. blockade, but it would not completely strangle China's foreign trade. But, look at how India acts as a "middleman" for Russian oil, or how Chinese businessmen set up factories in Southeast Asia to circumvent U.S. tariffs... Profit—how much can the U.S. offer? China is the largest trading partner for most countries. If you only wield a big stick without offering carrots, your blockade cannot succeed. Even with submarines, it will not succeed.

 

[Scott Kenny]

The U.S. Navy can only blockade the activities of China's merchant fleet in distant waters (such as the Indian Ocean, the coasts of Africa, the Atlantic, and the Mediterranean), but it cannot stop China's merchant fleet from operating in its coastal waters, such as the South China Sea.

The SCS that is bordered by Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam (just to name the big 3)?

Ignoring the Straits of Malacca as a chokepoint to work with (or rather the northern and southern ends of the approaches, plus the eastern side of the Straits).

Vessels from Southeast Asia and South Asia will carry minerals and oil from Africa and the Middle East into the South China Sea, transferring their goods to Chinese vessels or trains bound for China at ports or even at sea. Similarly, China's semi-finished products and components will be transported to factories in Southeast Asia and South Asia in the same (or "reverse") manner. After assembly, these goods will be sold worldwide by Southeast Asian and South Asian vessels.

It is not easy to change or move cargo containers at sea.

Bulk cargo like oil is actually practical to transfer at sea, but requires some extra, very visible bits on the ships to set up.

Those rail lines? They are only present in Vietnam, and China has been doing its best to piss off the Vietnamese for the last 25 years. Not to mention the generational hate from multiple invasions.

Will the United States destroy or capture every Indian cargo ship that might sail to China? Can it identify every Chinese component in every Vietnamese television set?

The same India that is in a just-short-of-shooting border war with China?

I do not deny that China's imports and exports would significantly decrease due to a U.S. blockade, but it would not completely strangle China's foreign trade. But, look at how India acts as a "middleman" for Russian oil, or how Chinese businessmen set up factories in Southeast Asia to circumvent U.S. tariffs... Profit—how much can the U.S. offer? China is the largest trading partner for most countries. If you only wield a big stick without offering carrots, your blockade cannot succeed. Even with submarines, it will not succeed.

The chances of India working with China is between slim and none. IMO India would be a lot more likely to join on the side fighting China, to grab another valley or two, or maybe even liberate Tibet.

 

[Ainen]

The US has a powerful submarine force which can likely press the PLAN quite hard, since they suffer with poor ASW and submarine warfare training (and equipment) in particular, and there's always the option of nuking the Mainland embarkation ports and A2AD sites with B-2s and cruise missiles.

Takes from first line are long since irrelevant. It's totally possible to design kantai kessen from wrong/flawed/schauwinistic assumptions and be surprised when it won't work, but even the original didn't do that(it only expected americans to do the most obvious wrong thing).

Takes from second line - letting the Jinn out of the bottle.

The USN has been about freedom of navigation and trade since 1792.

Original 6 were best known for commerce raiding, though. US is about freedom of navigation as long as it serves it's interests.

A losing Taiwan may decide to attack the Three Gorges Dam.
Perhaps not directly, but via the up-stream feeder dams and their canyon walls...

Elephant in the room: without nuclear weapons, destruction of dam of this size is essentially impossible (frankly almost any dam is barely vulnerable without very highly specialized weapons employed in sufficient numbers).

Taiwan, as of now, doesn't have means at all.
Also, dams in particular and China as whole have defenses. It doesn't mean they're leak-proof, but your target proposal can't be dealt with by leakers.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Original 6 were best known for commerce raiding, though. US is about freedom of navigation as long as it serves it's interests.

But were commissioned specifically to go stomp on the Barbary Corsairs.

 

[Nik]

Not the main dam itself, but those canyon walls.
Vajont Dam
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vajont_Dam

 

[Rule of cool]

I did a quick search for South China Sea, and it appears the central basin is very deep, plenty of 100m+ deep water for SSNs to operate in.

The Sunda Shelf is a pretty big area of shallow open water that would be difficult for an SSN to operate effectively. However, that is hemmed in by chokepoints to the south and the South China Sea SSN playground to the north, so wouldn't give China much sea room to sail imports through.

 

[Felocie]

The indiscretion rate of the Collins class is so small that AIP adds virtually no extra capability. IIUC in normal operation the Collins only needs to snort 20 minutes a day, and a very low charge can be made good in about an hour. There's plenty of hours at night where this can be done without being seen visually.

Yeah, it's great when the Collins class is dictating the ops tempo however when engaged in all out warfare it's lacking. It's why RAN SSNs are so key

 

[Rule of cool]

Yeah, it's great when the Collins class is dictating the ops tempo however when engaged in all out warfare it's lacking. It's why RAN SSNs are so key

The 8 SSNs more or less equals the work rate of the 12 diesel subs mooted in the 2009 White Paper.

6 subs were never enough for Australia, the RAN wanted 8 Oberons to turn the 4 boat ASW training arm into an offensive force, but 2 were cut to pay for A4s for the Melbourne.

A submarine base in the far north would be a significant force multiplier, but even Manus Island naval base is only 600km closer to the South China Sea than Perth is.

 

[TwoTribes]

Not the main dam itself, but those canyon walls.
Vajont Dam
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vajont_Dam

Vajont Dam is an arch dam, while the Three Gorges Dam is a gravity dam. Gravity dams are much more stable than arch dams.



There are no conditions for large-scale landslides near the Three Gorges, as the high mountains are several kilometers away. In contrast, Vajont is surrounded by high mountains itself.

 

[Felocie]

The 8 SSNs more or less equals the work rate of the 12 diesel subs mooted in the 2009 White Paper.

6 subs were never enough for Australia, the RAN wanted 8 Oberons to turn the 4 boat ASW training arm into an offensive force, but 2 were cut to pay for A4s for the Melbourne.

A submarine base in the far north would be a significant force multiplier, but even Manus Island naval base is only 600km closer to the South China Sea than Perth is.

I wonder if some form of submarine tender could provide a forward arming and replenishment point but that takes spending money that the government probably doesn't want to spend. Greater interoperability with the Black Powders or permanent basing in the Top End could be mutually beneficial. Pure speculation of course

 

[Null]

U.S. and Russia nowadays can launch missiles towards mobile ships by just using satellites I am assuming China can do that to. Submarines are a pain in the ass because they can carry many missiles, and they can stay hidden from adversary satellites at a considerable distance by firing missiles from underwater. China has a lot of satellites in orbit each with amazing resolution capabilities and large footprints. China has like 66 submarines and a good amount of those can carry a lot of antiship missiles and a good amount of those missiles can destroy over 100 ships. Oh and there is also those BM projects where they say they can launch missiles from their coast towards ships.
Let's see how Trump's denuclearization talks go with Russia and China.

 

[Rule of cool]

I wonder if some form of submarine tender could provide a forward arming and replenishment point but that takes spending money that the government probably doesn't want to spend. Greater interoperability with the Black Powders or permanent basing in the Top End could be mutually beneficial. Pure speculation of course

Cocos Islands are surrounded by deep water and 2000km closer to the Sth China Sea than Perth, so might make a decent makeshift forward base, even if only for a tender barge or something. It also has an airstrip for connection to the wider world

What's the minimum a sub tender would need? Fuel of course, but how hard is it to reload torpedoes, could a small merchant ship be rigged up in short order?

 

[Felocie]

Cocos Islands are surrounded by deep water and 2000km closer to the Sth China Sea than Perth, so might make a decent makeshift forward base, even if only for a tender barge or something. It also has an airstrip for connection to the wider world

What's the minimum a sub tender would need? Fuel of course, but how hard is it to reload torpedoes, could a small merchant ship be rigged up in short order?

Come to think of it, perhaps one of MMAs PSVs could do the trick? As long as there is sufficient space for containers and a crane to hoist them across, I reckon it’d work fine