Oreshnik MRBM - Technical News Only

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IMO Oreshnik is a threat to European (and Japanese, South Korean) oil refineries.

You cannot wage war for long if your oil refineries got busted. The Russians know that we can easily bust theirs, so they need a conventional deterrent to that happening.

The effects on impact and the CEP easily suffice for this purpose IF the missile works and doesn't fail technically.
As if Ukraine and/or NATO would not just hit every single Russian refinery more or less simultaneously.




I don't think it can put refinery out of operation for long.
Refineries are out 2-3 months when they burn in peacetime.

Plenty long enough to force someone to the negotiation table and likely to surrender.
 
IMO Oreshnik is a threat to European (and Japanese, South Korean) oil refineries.
also, air bases.

As if Ukraine and/or NATO would not just hit every single Russian refinery more or less simultaneously.
not to be a smartass, I know that ATACMs and PRSM are comparable to Iskander's in range but is there something that I missed that there is a oreshnik equivalent missile I dont know about in europe? Or some kind of Geran long range drones equivalent assuming those dont get hit?
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Edit: Or are you talking about long range cruise missiles like JSM, Taurus and JSM(not a lot in the inventory BTW) which at best only work at 560km max ranges but production facilities for such missiles can also get hit by Oreshnik at a further distance away. Does that pretty much only just leave tomahawks which is assuming these ships dont get hit by kinzhals or any other hypersonic missile? how are the production numbers for long range conventional strike weapons like dark eagle or ARRW?
 
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not to be a smartass, I know that ATACMs and PRSM are comparable to Iskander's in range but is there something that I missed that there is a oreshnik equivalent missile I dont know about? Or some kind of Geran long range drones equivalent?
I was thinking Tomahawk and C-ALCMs and AGM-158s.

More expensive, but any Tomahawks and C-ALCMs with cluster warheads would be very viable to chew up huge areas of the refinery.
 
also, air bases.


not to be a smartass, I know that ATACMs and PRSM are comparable to Iskander's in range but is there something that I missed that there is a oreshnik equivalent missile I dont know about in europe? Or some kind of Geran long range drones equivalent assuming those dont get hit?
Dark Eagle - 4500km.
 
Refineries are out 2-3 months when they burn in peacetime.

Plenty long enough to force someone to the negotiation table and likely to surrender.
You need to hit specific equipment in refinery for that...and may as well just drop PGM on it (and which oreshnik may easily miss, for kinetic rods only direct hit counts).
No, this only makes sense for vulnerable and valuable area target.
something like ASML(or any high value modern factory really) - sure, will be screwed up for good...
As if Ukraine and/or NATO would not just hit every single Russian refinery more or less simultaneously.
I guess the problem for both sides is that they actually couldn't do it all that well.
LACMs, including hypersonics with single warheads? Take a lot of hits per area target, and are affected by air defenses.

Intermediate Ballistics? Neither side had them until yesterday.
Drones? Same, it's a new and unreliable development, which dates well after current IRBM and hypersonic efforts started.
 
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Tomahawks can do that. Remember the footage of them flying straight down streets in Baghdad and then turning up to hit various buildings?
You need many per target(at some point it turns stupid - every gas tank needs it's own one, when really anything hot enough can light it up). Every single "point"(strike)of single warhead LACM comes with it's own engine, airframe, seekers, etc.

Plus you need a significant salvo overmatch for air defenses and/or countermeasures.

Ineffective. But it's only one exact target type. Otherwise, I think, Russia should really have aimed at Korean warheads now.
 
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Anyone know what the target was actually supposed to be anyway? Satellite images etc.?
Most seem to agree that the target was most likely Bila Tserkva Air Base. Something that warrants the usage of such a weapon, a target where the window of opportunity is sufficiently small to justify the usage of Oreshnik (not Rubezh, lol). Possibly as aircraft were put on readiness as drones and other missiles made their way to Kiev proper. Either to move the aircraft out of harms way or to aid in interception efforts, the main mission of the UAF these days.

Romanov was always a bit of a nutjob, but being disappointed by the fact that nuclear warheads are NOT being used is certainly something.
 
IMO Oreshnik is a threat to European (and Japanese, South Korean) oil refineries.

You cannot wage war for long if your oil refineries got busted. The Russians know that we can easily bust theirs, so they need a conventional deterrent to that happening.

The effects on impact and the CEP easily suffice for this purpose IF the missile works and doesn't fail technically.
I'm unsure I'd go along with this assessment, surely targets of economic value are up on the list for such a weapon system to attack, but the main purpose I'd wager would be to hit air bases and naval bases, aircraft, submarines and ships before they make it out of port or their respective base. That is especially relevant for the Baltic and North Sea I'd say, it's one way to ensure the GIUK gap and Baltic sea remain contested or can be outright won.

Refineries, depending on the extent of the damage can be up and running quicker than many assume, and in many ways a number of cheaper but massed munitions may be preferable, to distribute the damage more and thus ensure longer time out of action. After all, we know that Geran/Shaheds can be launched from trucks in disguise. Making it more likely that Oreshnik is reserved for less numerous targets of strategic significance (bases, factories, storage facilities).
 
Now though, if we look at the two first forum rules:
The primary purpose of the forum is to discuss unbuilt projects, military and aerospace technology in various forms.
No "war porn". Posts purely on operational use and combat employment are largely off-topic except inasmuch as they relate to or highlight aspects of design and technology which is the primary forum focus.

At this point Oreshnik is a missile system in active service that sees semi-regular use in an ongoing conflict. Do we have to discuss every launch in length? Perhaps we should discuss emerging detail, proposed characteristics and functions, when they actually emerge and become publicized. Surely the thread would remain dormant for longer periods, but at least then we'd have something worth discussing and sharing. Rather than stare at footage everyone can see and comment on over at twitter and Reddit.

Not only exclusive to this thread but others as well (BBGX, Iskander, F-47 and F/A-XX are possibly the worst offenders in that regard).
 
Let's understand the purpose of the missile and how it involves decisions on what countries can or can't make if we are not involving nukes.

Europe
21 drone production facilities in different countries and locations were posted before as strike locations for the missiles by Russian officials so there is at least an abundance of these oreshnik missiles to strike most of Europe's airbases. Any geran equivalent range drone production facilities can also get blown up to.

there are not alot of JSMs, Taurus or storm shadow cruise missiles and at best they are limited to a 560km range, such missiles are only useful to be launched from Ukraine from their own countries the range isn't enough. Even these production facilities can get blown up with their already limited production.

US
There is an estimate of 3000-3100 tomahawks based on google search, like 850 were used on Iran recently and I take it they are not done with Iran yet, mig-31 combat radius combined with kinzhal range can also target ships at a long range from coasts. Limited ATACMs number and range, PRSM getting bumped to 1000km range will take a while until huge production, other projects like ARRW and dark eagle will take a while for production.

shells, missiles and rockets take alot of fuel and energy which Europe is low on and can be worse if oil or gas refineries get blown up. Europe is at a bigger disadvantage fighting Russia then Ukraine fighting Russia because Ukraine had the leisure to receive constant uninterrupted supplies from Europe for 4+ years and such supply facilities getting blown up would not help Europe's land forces for any long-term war with Russia. US is too busy with Iran.

When the war ends the conditions, Ukraine would be under is to not have the war restarted with the option of getting glassed. Depending on the conclusion of the war I wouldn't be surprised US halts long range missile production unless it's used for the middle east or Iran. Russia having their hands free after their war is over and China to support Iran will just make the Iran war more costly, even if somehow Iran was screwed up to the point that they can be invaded by US/Israel what is stopping Iran from just simply asking Russia or China to take their country which is why I don't see any benefits for the US why the Iran war was even started(other than making our adversaries get stronger).
 
Let's understand the purpose of the missile and how it involves decisions on what countries can or can't make if we are not involving nukes.

Europe
21 drone production facilities in different countries and locations were posted before as strike locations for the missiles by Russian officials so there is at least an abundance of these oreshnik missiles to strike most of Europe's airbases. Any geran equivalent range drone production facilities can also get blown up to.

there are not alot of JSMs, Taurus or storm shadow cruise missiles and at best they are limited to a 560km range, such missiles are only useful to be launched from Ukraine from their own countries the range isn't enough. Even these production facilities can get blown up with their already limited production.

US
There is an estimate of 3000-3100 tomahawks based on google search, like 850 were used on Iran recently and I take it they are not done with Iran yet, mig-31 combat radius combined with kinzhal range can also target ships at a long range from coasts. Limited ATACMs number and range, PRSM getting bumped to 1000km range will take a while until huge production, other projects like ARRW and dark eagle will take a while for production.

shells, missiles and rockets take alot of fuel and energy which Europe is low on and can be worse if oil or gas refineries get blown up. Europe is at a bigger disadvantage fighting Russia then Ukraine fighting Russia because Ukraine had the leisure to receive constant uninterrupted supplies from Europe for 4+ years and such supply facilities getting blown up would not help Europe's land forces for any long-term war with Russia. US is too busy with Iran.

When the war ends the conditions, Ukraine would be under is to not have the war restarted with the option of getting glassed. Depending on the conclusion of the war I wouldn't be surprised US halts long range missile production unless it's used for the middle east or Iran. Russia having their hands free after their war is over and China to support Iran will just make the Iran war more costly, even if somehow Iran was screwed up to the point that they can be invaded by US/Israel what is stopping Iran from just simply asking Russia or China to take their country which is why I don't see any benefits for the US why the Iran war was even started(other than making our adversaries get stronger).
Ah, nookposting in the year of our Lord 2026.

How embarassing.

I love how some posters here are now touting a weapon that has a CEP of "that zip code, maybe" and does LESS damage than it's warheads equivalent weight in TNT as a wunderwaffe.
 

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I'm unsure I'd go along with this assessment, surely targets of economic value are up on the list for such a weapon system to attack, but the main purpose I'd wager would be to hit air bases and naval bases, aircraft, submarines and ships before they make it out of port or their respective base. That is especially relevant for the Baltic and North Sea I'd say, it's one way to ensure the GIUK gap and Baltic sea remain contested or can be outright won.

Refineries, depending on the extent of the damage can be up and running quicker than many assume, and in many ways a number of cheaper but massed munitions may be preferable, to distribute the damage more and thus ensure longer time out of action. After all, we know that Geran/Shaheds can be launched from trucks in disguise. Making it more likely that Oreshnik is reserved for less numerous targets of strategic significance (bases, factories, storage facilities).

All you need to take out in a refinery is the atmospheric distillation stage.
see image, source https://www.researchgate.net/public...igeria_A_Technology_Policy_Assessment/figures
Schematic-diagram-of-a-Petroleum-Refinery_W640.jpg
To knock out the entire diesel + kerosene production of the EU takes less hits than to take out its 4.5gen aircraft fleet.

Germany's refineries would take about 20-30 hits compared to taking out 100+ Typhoons in individual HAS.

The kerosene shortage wouldn't take effect quickly if kerosene gets rationed for military use, but the diesel shortage would knock out all road logistics within less than four months AND practically all land vehicles of the field army.
Even a friendly U.S. could not possibly help out with enough diesel and these days it looks more likely to supply Russia than EU with diesel in the event of war.

website about how many (few) oil refineries exist in the EU:
https://www.concawe.eu/refineries-map/
It's less than a hundred.
 
Regarding Oreshnik being "slower":

You can shoot in different trajectories if you don't shoot at maximum range: A flatter trajectory for a shorter flight, a higher trajectory for a higher terminal velocity.
The impact angle differs with these, and this impact angle may very well greatly influence the impact pattern of the submunitions.

So there are more plausible reasons for why the trajectory / speed may have been altered.
 
Ah, nookposting in the year of our Lord 2026.

How embarassing.

I love how some posters here are now touting a weapon that has a CEP of "that zip code, maybe" and does LESS damage than it's warheads equivalent weight in TNT as a wunderwaffe.
WTF is nookposting? Is this like some new terminology zoomers nowadays use on the internet use or what?

What CEP zip code accuracy?
the last oreshnik strike that happened before this strike has shown Ukraine did not want to pull up satellite's images before for whatever reason (maybe destroyed airbase, F-16s or something)
And this attack has shown ukrainian military command facilities have been hit, what other reason would the US tell Ukrainian officials to evacuate government buildings?

Damage once again doesn't look very impressive, and neither does the accuracy. At least some of the submunitions missed the airbase and struck a parking coop.
probably true if you only cherry pick images.
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At least some of the submunitions missed the airbase and struck a parking coop.
are you sure those were not gerans? Did you know military aircraft or any aircrafts need airfields to fly?
1779645473084.png
 
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You got any context for those images? The one I posted it from a garage complex near the air base the missile was fired at.
 
You got any context for those images? The one I posted it from a garage complex near the air base the missile was fired at.
Are you sure the garage complex was hit with a oreshnik and not a geran.
This is how accurate some sources can be.
 

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but is there something that I missed that there is a oreshnik equivalent missile I dont know about in europe?
The closest to oreshnik in EU is M51 fielded by French and Trident- II fielded by UK.
M51 can carry 10 MIRV, reach top speed of Mach 25 and fly 10,000 km.
Trident II can carry up to 14 MIRV, reach top speed of Mach 24 and fly 12,000 km.
They are both SLBM though unlike Oreshnik.
 

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Do they have non-nuclear warheads Ronny?
 
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Do they have non-nuclear warheads Ronny?
Technically speaking, if you remove uranium from these MIRV, they become conventional or you can just use dummy warhead (like they often does in test). A slug moving at Mach 24-25 is still quite dangerous even without any explosive.
Overall, the challenge of using ballistic missiles in a conventional role is not with technical. The main issue is that ballistic missiles are traditionally associated with nuclear payloads, and there is no reliable way for other countries to immediately distinguish a conventionally armed ballistic missile from a nuclear one during launch. Because of the risk of unintended nuclear escalation, EU states are generally cautious about employing such missiles in conventional operations.
 

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WTF is nookposting? Is this like some new terminology zoomers nowadays use on the internet use or what?

What CEP zip code accuracy?
the last oreshnik strike that happened before this strike has shown Ukraine did not want to pull up satellite's images before for whatever reason (maybe destroyed airbase, F-16s or something)
And this attack has shown ukrainian military command facilities have been hit, what other reason would the US tell Ukrainian officials to evacuate government buildings?
Nookposting = Posting posturing about nuclear weapons. Very gauche. Don't do it, it just makes you look like a posturing sore loser.

CEP = Circular Error Of Probability. A CEP of 300 meters means that 50 percent of your warheads will fall outside of this.

Zip Code. Seriously? I have to explain zip codes now? Where are you from that you don't know what postal zip codes are?

And Ukraine almost NEVER posts sattelite images of whatever has been attacked by russia. That's just plain good sense. No need to make strike assesment easy for your opponent.
Which is why we all think that the average russian is so fucking stupid for posting all those burning refineries/warehouses/FSB bases/whatever after Ukraine makes a pass at something. It immediately tells the Ukranians if their attacks have been on point.
 
And Ukraine almost NEVER posts sattelite images of whatever has been attacked by russia. That's just plain good sense
then why do you suggest its zipcode or piss poor area accuracy if they didn't even disclose satellites images as proof yet of accuracy as you are stating now, do you see the problem with your previous post?
 
You need many per target(at some point it turns stupid - every gas tank needs it's own one, when really anything hot enough can light it up). Every single "point"(strike)of single warhead LACM comes with it's own engine, airframe, seekers, etc.

Plus you need a significant salvo overmatch for air defenses and/or countermeasures.

Ineffective. But it's only one exact target type.
All you need to do is hit the distillation towers, where the raw crude comes in to be separated. That's the most critical point, and the single hardest part to replace.

Also, gas tank storage yards are made for cluster warheads. The post-strike fires will burn up any UXO.


Otherwise, I think, Russia should really have aimed at Korean warheads now.
The Norks?!?

The one country that was on Russia's side from 1945 on? The country that is currently providing men and materiel to the front lines?



The submunitions will appear to be moving slower when filmed from further away, or from a wider angle.
Or from if the submunitions are moving away from the viewer horizontally.



Do they have non-nuclear warheads Ronny?
Nothing with conventional HE, but you can always drop a couple hundred kg of instrumented test warhead on a target.

That said, launching a freaking Trident or M51 is a basic admission that the payload is nuclear.
 
Please note this topic is now intended for Technical News only on this weapon. Ongoing operational discussions are not encouraged, and operational usage is limited to situations where it provides interesting technical information, not just disaster porn images.
 
Defence industries, plants...
Someone saying Air Base, others saying plants?
probably true if you only cherry pick images.
There's literally no way of knowing where any of those images are. Some look like a residential area, since there are kids walking across the street.
then why do you suggest its zipcode or piss poor area accuracy if they didn't even disclose satellites images as proof yet of accuracy as you are stating now, do you see the problem with your previous post?
I feel the onus is on the attacking party to do that. Without such images, there's no evidence that the statement of 'piss poor area accuracy' is false.

View: https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2058868615995064500?s=20

Are you sure the garage complex was hit with a oreshnik and not a geran.
This is how accurate some sources can be.
Err.. nope.. Do not try to re-write history.

#51
https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/th...e-article-292-as-24-killjoy.40307/post-596871
1779716224856.png
The closest to oreshnik in EU is M51 fielded by French and Trident- II fielded by UK.
M51 can carry 10 MIRV, reach top speed of Mach 25 and fly 10,000 km.
Trident II can carry up to 14 MIRV, reach top speed of Mach 24 and fly 12,000 km.
They are both SLBM though unlike Oreshnik.
Weren't US Dark Eagles fielded in Germany though?
 
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Err.. nope.. Do not try to re-write history.

#51
why are you showing me a missile or bomb when it can be a geran that hit a garage complex?
I feel the onus is on the attacking party to do that. Without such images, there's no evidence that the statement of 'piss poor area accuracy' is false.
Hard to know what exactly hit what from geran, tungsten rods, bombs or missiles since sometimes the sources we get are from someone claiming to intercept a Kinzhal when instead they show a bomb next to them.
 
why are you showing me a missile or bomb when it can be a geran that hit a garage complex?
The picture and link refers to the original argument about Kinzhal shootdown and proof it is not a BETAB-500.
Hard to know what exactly hit what from geran, tungsten rods, bombs or missiles
Hard to know it wasn't 'piss poor area accuracy' then.
since sometimes the sources we get are from someone claiming to intercept a Kinzhal when instead they show a bomb next to them.
Except it wasn't a bomb because the welding seams were in the wrong place, as shown by the image in my previous post. And why would a bomb that lands on its nose have a hole in the nose but otherwise nose point still intact?

1779722381141.png

Back on topic, looks like it's been downgraded from piss poor area accuracy to piss poor wrong area accuracy.

View: https://x.com/UKikaski/status/2058858216902004798?s=20
 
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Please note this topic is now intended for Technical News only on this weapon. Ongoing operational discussions are not encouraged, and operational usage is limited to situations where it provides interesting technical information, not just disaster porn images.

Half of the thread being claims made by either side without backing anything up with genuine facts (or alternatively credible sources) and choosing to ignore the literal Administrator who said this thread is reserved for technical news only is certainly a choice. Other half being redundant footage.

Not surprised, just a shame that the same people repeatedly fail to adhere to forum rules.
 
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No, France will never put any non-nuclear warheads on M51s because a) Oreshnik is an eye-watering expensive P.O.S that makes russian nuclear deterrent look stupid and toothless b) for no tactical or strategic gain whatsoever, except perhaps Vlad Putin compensating for his short... nose, obviously. Guidance, CEP, kinetics and conventional explosives all mix the wrong way - and turn a non-nuclear long range ballistic missile into a very stupid, pointless weapon (like most of Putin March 1, 2018 wunderwaffens, but that's off topic).
 
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