Bush Jr pulling out of ABM and starting the Iraq war was the final nail in the coffin.

No, it was way before that. It was either letting Poland and the Baltics into NATO or pushing Russia out by not helping them in Tajikistan.

In any case, it was decided in Clinton's presidency, mostly due to the need to appease the still Reaganite GOP opposition party. That isn't to say that Russia wouldn't be adversarial, but it wouldn't be the same kind of adversarial it is now, much like how China was enabled by Clinton it's possible that Russia would have been enabled to be an adversary rather than an ally. However, it would have put that decision in Russia's hands rather than making it for them.
 
That can't be helped. A lot of nations are on the back foot now...ruins everywhere. Ironically, nukes kept the lid on things but blood ran from everything else

We have one chance perhaps, to make peace stick for awhile.

With people creeped out at murderbots...now is a good time for everyone to take a breath, and use resources for better lives for citizens.

WWI was the most tragic. The ideal of a hero rearing up with his horse now replaced with folks hunched over at work, doing without.

WWI was made inevitable BECAUSE of alliances.
Duty caused the peace movement to stumble then. The rest of the 20th Century was about heady ideology, intrigue....all very captivating.

The peace movement today has one thing going for it it never really had before.

War isn't as fun.

We've seen that in smaller conflicts in Asia, where they had the good sense to call it quits earlier.

Peace will be had when enough people, working two and three jobs--say to themselves: "what the hell are we doing any more?"
 
The job of the military is to make the other side do what the politicians want
Fair point, so the blame also (mainly?) rests on the politicians. In the fog of war, this lands the military in the thorny thicket of Befehl ist Befehl.
To what extent elected politicians are driven by animosities, old and new, in their electorate, or are driving their electorate is another point to consider.
Which still leaves this point, slightly corrected:
how did armies politics transform mass devastation into a manageable and morally acceptable activity?
Note: mass devastation by conventional weapons.
 
Which still leaves this point, slightly corrected:
"how did armies politics transform mass devastation into a manageable and morally acceptable activity?"
Note: mass devastation by conventional weapons.
This starts with the Wars of German Unification and the Franco-Prussian Wars. Those were all short, sharp, and decided by armies in the field with minimal devastation.

It missed the existential fighting of the US Civil War. Once a war goes from "I want this territory" to "existential threat", the scale of allowable destruction goes WAY up.

Also, the massive destruction is a bonus for keeping the opposing nation weaker during their rebuilding period, preventing the next party in charge over there from turning around and doing the same to you.
 
The one thing that stood out for me is that nuclear warfare's even greater potential for mayhem should not make us think "well, it's only conventional warfare, that's acceptable then".
 
WWII, at least to me, was one of the last wars humanity needed to fight...A lot of recent foolishness....questionable.
Most wars since WW2 were imposed by one side on another. But WW2 was also that.
There was no "legitimate German interest" that could justify a war of this scale and nature. And the same goes for a lot of wars since.
One of the best ways to not have a war imposed on you is to just prepare for war.
 
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Collateral damage from the current Persian Gulf war.
Plug one leak with the other.
 
consider the value of Ukraine's efforts for NATO members and also the financial merits of the technological co-operation between Ukraine and NATO. This has never been a one sided relationship and it is reflected more and more in technology, know how and implementation transfers. Notably Ukrainian defense forces continue to freely offer and share their expertise with their U.S. colleagues as highlighted by this very recent CSIS release.

There is neither merit nor value, you have one side completely dependent on the entire expertise, material, intelligence and technology of the other to sustain their own war effort. It is very much a one sided relationship and NATO is providing everything mentioned above and especially money (although plenty of it just seems to ultimately evaporate along the way) while the only return is a vaguely fomulated "well at least we're weakening Russia, right?", although the VKS has grown past it's former size in 2022, with many legacy airframes having been replaced by newer ones, an entire unmanned systems branche having been established and internationally they have cemented their ways of generating revenue as basically bullet proof.

Ukraine never had anything to offer to NATO except bodies, a useful resource surely, but one that is simultanously being used up by their own undertaking. The recent war in the middle east proved that there clearly have been no valuable lessons, at least in the eyes of the US, from Ukraine. Because what happened there happens in Ukraine all the time as well, missiles rain down on vital targets and infrastructure, drones just make their merry way through overwhelmed defenses and conventional SAM systems have been proven impotent to deal with the threat. Stockpiles of high cost, low volume, missiles and interceptors being depleted and cost ballooning. When Ukraine offered their "expertise" the Americans promptly laughed and told them off, because the Americans more than anyone else know and pointed out that they are the ones that supply everything in this one-way relationship. PR moves fall apart when the other side says the quiet part out loud. And this was the single most capable, well funded, and invested member of NATO (basically the entire meaningful portion of NATO) telling them that they have nothing to offer.

I appreciate a good what-if, but we should keep fan-fiction to a minimum in a semi-serious forum.
 
Collateral damage from the current Persian Gulf war.
Plug one leak with the other.
The EU being broke preceeds the American-Israeli War against Iran. General cost of living and energy costs have been rising before that, this is just an amplifier. It makes sense though, the Italians seemingly being willing to pull out of NEC (I'll believe it when I see it though). You can hardly justify an increase in military spending when your voters a paying north of 2€ per Liter at the pump and other social circumstances are growing further dissatisfaction.
 
A bit more complicated than that. From the DefenseNews piece:
The so-called National Escape Clause (NEC) would have boosted Italian defense spending by about €12 billion over three years if used, sources have told Defense News — a handy sum as Italy strives to push its arms budget to 5% of GDP from the current 2%.

But when asked about the NEC this week, Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni said, “Today we have other priorities. I have the priority of energy costs and the priority of responding to the needs of citizens.”

The decision followed years in which Meloni’s government urged the EU to set up a scheme like the NEC, arguing it was the only way to boost defense spending.
[...]
The EU normally requires member states to keep their budget deficit below 3% of GDP or face infraction procedures. But if they use the NEC scheme they can now add on extra defense spending worth 1.5% of GDP, every year, for four years starting from 2025 without punishment.

So far 17 member states have participated in the scheme including Germany.

The NEC looked tailor made for Italy, which spent spent €29.18 billion on defense in 2024, equaling 1.54% of GDP and only made it to 2% in 2025 by inserting existing expenditures to its defense budget calculation.

Rome is now trying to reach five percent as per NATO targets. Last year it applied for €14.9 billion in so-called SAFE loans made available by the EU for defense spending.
The current energy crisis is caused by the Strait of Hormuz being closed and the damage to Gulf states infrastructure.
Those, in turn, caused by the badly planned US-Israeli campaign in the Gulf.
This is collateral damage to one particular US policy goal: getting NATO partners to spend more on defence.
An own goal.
 
the VKS has grown past it's former size in 2022, with many legacy airframes having been replaced by newer ones, an entire unmanned systems branche having been established
Yes.
I appreciate a good what-if, but we should keep fan-fiction to a minimum in a semi-serious forum.
Offensive.
 
There is neither merit nor value ...

Values are a many a thing; we invest accordingly. If Russia or Putin's regime sees Ukraine as a vassal or a non-entity without agency, that doesn't necessarily apply to others.

The thing about open warfare is that resources do "ultimately evaporate along the way" (as you put it), that is sort of the nature of violently forcing one's will on the other. It is destructive. But as the intent of that phrasing seems to imply improper use of resources one has to note that both disinformation and corruption are integral parts of Russia's escalation doctrine in weakening adversaries in the run up to kinetic action. Russia's CPI (Corruption Perceptions Index) is also quite a lot worse than Ukraine's. NATO views these parts of power projection spectrum rather differently.

As to the state of the VKS, RUSI at the beginning of the year did indeed report a "marginal" increase in the number of airframes and capabilities. Contrast this to Russia switching to a pretty much full-on wartime economy (~25% of all government spending in 2021 ramping up to the illegal, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and a full 40% last year) and that aeronautical achievement seems less than ideal in terms of any imaginable ROI. Still better than the cost of every bloody meter of some Donbas sunflower field or keeping the Black Sea fleet afloat though.

In some unintentional way I suspect we may agree that the EU economies (about eight to nine times the size of Russia's) are, given the circumstances, still underinvesting in defense and security, Ukraine included. The vibes of that appraisal may land differently, of course.

Every fmr. Warsaw pact country, fmr. Soviet state or otherwise Russia bordering NATO applicant in turn has heard some iteration of the line "(you have nothing) to offer to NATO except bodies" (I had to paraphrase your version somewhat to accommodate for grammar here). It is such a staple of Russian divide et impera reflexive control. I've always thought it also weirdly confessional one in terms of Russian intent, too thinly veiled to not betray the innate malice and coercion to be effective but especially viewed against the backdrop of Ukraine, a moot point. A grim and tragic one as well given Russia's own casualty rates in Ukraine.

To appraise Ukrainian doctrine, technology and expertise in air defense as useless in light of GCC's and Israel's U.S aided air defense against Iran's (Russian assisted) missile and UAV onslaught is certainly a perspective. A rather weird one though, given GCC/U.S. went through high end interceptors at such a rate (especially against basic UAVs) that for weeks since we've heard analysts' grave concerns about an unsustainable offense-defense balance, "magazine depth" and years-long timescales to replenish stocks. While the U.S. may have remained (largely) silent about the (at least initial) differences between them and Ukraine in allocating resources against similar types of threats, multiple GCC countries have meanwhile initiated decadal co-operation with Ukraine in air defense. Instead of, say, with the U.S. president's sons' new UAV venture. Meanwhile there is nary a European NATO country without some joint venture or intent to produce and develop Ukrainian UAVs and air defense systems. Some notable Russians have gone through the trouble of threatening these expressly.

European NATO countries investing tens of billions directly in 2025 and just recently clearing an indefinite €90bn loan (as Hungary finally came through) for Ukraine is a pretty good indication that due diligence determinations of "merit and value" have already been made, the results being something other than "neither/nor". In some other environments it may be conceivable that such resources may be expended out of some revanchist zero-sum imperial spite alone, I don't know. Certainly looks that way.

That was certainly many a tangent from my suggestion that as the study of the NATO Ukraine aid should be accompanied by similar appraisals of the value of Ukraine to (especially) European NATO countries. Off the cuff exchanges on forums (your perceptions of the seriousness thereof may vary, nota bene) aside, I do hope enterprising researchers such as the Kiel Institut will devote resources to this as well.

In any case, had Putin's regime indeed occupied Ukraine in three days or at any point since, it is highly disingenuous to suggest that European NATO countries' defense and security demands would be lesser than they currently are. Putinesque Russkiy Mir ideas aside.
 
When Ukraine offered their "expertise" the Americans promptly laughed and told them off, because the Americans more than anyone else know and pointed out that they are the ones that supply everything in this one-way relationship. PR moves fall apart when the other side says the quiet part out loud. And this was the single most capable, well funded, and invested member of NATO (basically the entire meaningful portion of NATO) telling them that they have nothing to offer.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE signed deals with Ukraine a month ago.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2r4wxdw3no
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...fence-cooperation-with-uae-qatar-on-gulf-tour
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026...air-defence-deals-with-uae-qatar-on-gulf-tour
PR moves? To which PR benefit of the Gulf states?
 
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https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/27/world/world-military-spending-report-sipri-intl-hnk-ml
The US, China, Russia, Germany and India were the biggest spenders, collectively accounting for 58% of the global sum.

“In 2025 military spending by European NATO members rose faster than at any time since 1953, reflecting the ongoing pursuit of European self-reliance alongside increasing pressure from the United States to strengthen burden sharing within the alliance,” Jade Guiberteau Ricard, a researcher with the SIPRI Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme, said in a statement.

NATO countries with big increases include Belgium (59%), Spain (50%), Norway (49%), Denmark (46%), Germany (24%), Poland (23%) and Canada (23%).

Germany’s total military spending of $114 billion ranks it No. 4 worldwide.
 
I'm all for talking about those defense spending rates, as long as we talk about the historical debt to gdp ratio, historic effective tax rates on top 25% of earners, and historic corporate tax rates as well. Blindly increasing defense spending without addressing the debt problem and adding revenue is going to have large consequences. Same issue will apply to all over the EU as well.
 
I'm all for talking about those defense spending rates, as long as we talk about the historical debt to gdp ratio, historic effective tax rates on top 25% of earners, and historic corporate tax rates as well. Blindly increasing defense spending without addressing the debt problem and adding revenue is going to have large consequences. Same issue will apply to all over the EU as well.
Deleting federal fraud would also help with that. So would passing a real ducking budget instead of continuing resolutions. Taking a chainsaw to federal agency staffing that isn't needed would help. If your co-workers cannot answer what you do in the office, you shouldn't have a job there. (This was done at NASA during the post-Apollo drawdown, IIRC, and they lost something like 30% of their staff and managers)
 
This is the new normal in budget spending get use to it.
Not long ago and for thousands of years military spending rarely ever was less than 60%. Rejoice it's a new golden age of Empire.
 

Finland Signs Multi-Million Euro Framework Agreement for Forcit Blocker Naval Mines​

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-new...joint-procurement-forcit-blocker-naval-mines/
An international Naval Mines Cooperation (NMC) project concerning the common procurement of naval mines has advanced to the framework agreement phase. As a representative of the lead nation, the Finnish Defence Forces Logistics Command has signed a contract with the Finnish company Forcit on procuring the Blocker Influence Mine for the participating countries. So far, Finland, Germany, Denmark, Lithuania and Norway have joined the project. The total value of the contract is hundreds of millions of Euros.
 
So the Globaleye AWACs for NATO is now official, I wonder what Trump thinks about it considering NATO were originally going for the Boeing E-7.
 
Why should they?
The VA is, at its core, a provider of fringe benefits for our veterans. And just as the salaries of our servicemembers is considered a part of the defense budget, so too should their healthcare, pensions, and disability benefits. It's also a matter of consistency; if a Humvee hits a landmine, the cost of repairing it is charged to our defense budget, and the same should apply to the cost of prosthetics and rehab for a soldier who steps on a landmine and loses his leg.
 
The VA is, at its core, a provider of fringe benefits for our veterans. And just as the salaries of our servicemembers is considered a part of the defense budget, so too should their healthcare, pensions, and disability benefits. It's also a matter of consistency; if a Humvee hits a landmine, the cost of repairing it is charged to our defense budget, and the same should apply to the cost of prosthetics and rehab for a soldier who steps on a landmine and loses his leg.
Organizationally, the Department of Veteran Affairs is a separate cabinet-level department equal to but not part of DOD.

Also, if I understand correctly, retirement pensions for servicemen are not VA. Disability pensions for broken servicemen are VA.
 
Organizationally, the Department of Veteran Affairs is a separate cabinet-level department equal to but not part of DOD.

Also, if I understand correctly, retirement pensions for servicemen are not VA. Disability pensions for broken servicemen are VA.
But you get my point.
 
The answer, as it is here - is that we are VETERANS. Not serving so even here we get doctors denying care to veterans they think should have care funded by the MOD.

Not serving folk now, back in civvy street so the proper place to fund care is extra to the military budget and separated from it.

We need to move on from our military service and rejoin the collective.

Besides, you want MORE convolution?
 
So the Globaleye AWACs for NATO is now official, I wonder what Trump thinks about it considering NATO were originally going for the Boeing E-7.

GlobalEye may represent an increase in NATO defence spending but, remember, Sweden is "unsafe" and Canadians are "nasty" ...
 

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