US FF(X) Program

[cccgong]

No money is being allocated for FFGX in the proposed budget.

Think about what that means.

There’s still 2 being built with the first one coming out right around 2028. When the FFX comes out and an administration change occurs. They will also likely only be 20% ish different in price. Think about what that means

 

[Jimmo952]

There’s still 2 being built with the first one coming out right around 2028. When the FFX comes out and an administration change. They will also likely only be 20% ish different in price. Think about what that means

It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future.

If no money is being allocated to complete the ships, the writing is on the wall.

I know you want your view to be true, but it is by no means assured that it is.

The ultimate costs and exact timeline to get these ships deployable are still unknown, if it even happens.

 

[MadRat]

I can see unmanned platforms making a litorral presence obsolete. While they will cover a large swath of ocean, each vessel required an uptick in overall fuel and maintenance. So I am failing to see it work logistically on the open ocean. But in a confimed area of operations of course it will have incredible value. So the role of a high endurance FF(X) or high firepower FFG(X) will bring something to the table. In the open ocean with respect to escort, the FFG(X) is the better platform. In operations like the Hormuz Strait, the FFG(X) is the better platform. In littoral operations the FF(X) and unmanned vessel combination will likely be better due simply to risk to lose ships are less costly in this form. Almost all of the firepower will rely on the unmanned vessels and imho the FF(X) needs to be difficult to locate.

 

[Jimmo952]

With the proliferation and increasing capabilities of access-denial weapons, UAVs and USVs will probably be the only way to do littoral operations against a sophisticated opponent.

It's just too dangerous to send manned vessels close to an adversary's shore.

As we see in the Ukrainian-Russo war, modern war is increasingly a war of robots.

 

[DWG]

Ship stealth, almost always(maybe extreme cases are different), isn't about being invisible, it's about being troublesome to radars and seekers(including behind countermeasures and/or between other signatures).
As everyone could see, Iranian radar seekers aren't exactly world beaters.

I talked about visual detection for a reason. If I can see you, I can guide an FPV drone into you, no matter how good your RF or IRF stealth is. There are places in the world where stealth is now worthless, and those are precisely the places Zumwalt was designed to fight.

750 rounds(engagements), easily replenishable at sea. We're comparing to single digit ammo count(on MALEs, nothing on smaller drones), going directly against loiter time and altitude.

First find your target. No matter how good a Zumwalts sensors were supposed to be, they weren't up to following a fibre-optic cable back to a particular room, cellar, bunker or trench.

The range off the coast is absolutely irrelevant; for SSGN, you're equally vulnerable 25 miles off and 250 miles off coast.
Threat instead is defined by redfor missile pool(at sea and overall, as these are high-end missiles with highly limited available stock), making threat levels effectively "flat".

25 mile wide choke points change the equation. You're now in range of everything down to ATGMs with delusions of grandeur, guided shells, and even consumer drones.

You have to be able to defend (or assume you can not, and sometimes luck is just not on your side) against this threat regardless of proximity to the coast.

Yes, but you don't walk your exquisitely expensive warship into the other guy's killzone if you can avoid it.

 

[johnpjones1775]

I kind of like the Vixby and how they set it up. The downside is it basically has worse crew accommodations than an LCS will supplies for only 14 day missions. Really limits the utility of the concept.

Well I mean it was designed to be a glorified missile boat, so that makes sense.

 

[johnpjones1775]

Currently FFX is likely the results of a corrupt administration looking for kick backs.

Not to say that congress is not also problematic

FMM was buying parts from Europe, and Europe sourced their parts from China that was a big reason for the switch.

It was originally told to me that FMM was buying parts from China, but I got that clarified a week or two ago.

 

[johnpjones1775]

I talked about visual detection for a reason. If I can see you, I can guide an FPV drone into you, no matter how good your RF or IRF stealth is. There are places in the world where stealth is now worthless, and those are precisely the places Zumwalt was designed to fight.


First find your target. No matter how good a Zumwalts sensors were supposed to be, they weren't up to following a fibre-optic cable back to a particular room, cellar, bunker or trench.


25 mile wide choke points change the equation. You're now in range of everything down to ATGMs with delusions of grandeur, guided shells, and even consumer drones.


Yes, but you don't walk your exquisitely expensive warship into the other guy's killzone if you can avoid it.

Are you implying that fiber optic FPV drones are some how a threat to a zumwalt sitting 50 miles off shore?

 

[johnpjones1775]

It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future.

If no money is being allocated to complete the ships, the writing is on the wall.

I know you want your view to be true, but it is by no means assured that it is.

The ultimate costs and exact timeline to get these ships deployable are still unknown, if it even happens.

Yeah, it’s not even known what the navy will do with them. Operating a bespoke class of ships with only 2 in the class and no unique/major capability increases over other ships in the fleet means the USN doesn’t really want them, but at the same time it will likely be hard to sell them as any one who might be interested in them would likely have to conduct expensive refits to rearm them in accordance with their navy, and other navies that might really benefit from a big capabilities boost of having them probably won’t be able to afford to buy them.

 

[Desertfox]

If they sell them off for cheap... Mexico could certainly use them.

 

[Ainen]

I talked about visual detection for a reason. If I can see you, I can guide an FPV drone into you, no matter how good your RF or IRF stealth is. There are places in the world where stealth is now worthless, and those are precisely the places Zumwalt was designed to fight.

Small FPV doesn't fly 25 nmi....it takes a munition of normal size - perfectly fine target for original DBR and 2x mk.110.

Furthermore, Iran isn't exactly great at small drones; we can understand this much from how Hezbollah is now doing. Newbie power without actual combat exposure. And btw I'm quite sure you could park vanilla Zumwalt off south-western Ukraine and, should ASCM salvos miss, it wouldn't had been able to do anything about them.
Failure of weak and completely unprepared BSF shouldn't be over-interpreted.

First find your target. No matter how good a Zumwalts sensors were supposed to be, they weren't up to following a fibre-optic cable back to a particular room, cellar, bunker or trench.

You can, as a first stage, provide fires for MALEs (which are severely limited by ammo depth). Second stage, launch more smaller drones via the normal aircraft facilities of Zumwalt or LCS.

25 mile wide choke points change the equation. You're now in range of everything down to ATGMs with delusions of grandeur, guided shells, and even consumer drones.

It is narrow, but it isn't that narrow. Normal naval LO target(light subsonic ASCM) engagement horizon is below half that number, and to fly a couple of dozen miles with an ASCM warhead, ATGM itself turns into a small ASCM. I.e. a normie threat.
Granted, small boats are more asymmetrical, but this problem goes back to the dawn of the steam age... It's a known problem if you solve it.

 

[johnpjones1775]

If they sell them off for cheap... Mexico could certainly use them.

Definitely, do they operate mk110 or (SEA)RAM already? Or any mk41?

 

[Jimmo952]

If they sell them off for cheap... Mexico could certainly use them.

They would be a pretty big step up in sophistication for the Mexican Navy.

I doubt the US would even want to sell them to the Mexicans.

 

[Desertfox]

Definitely, do they operate mk110 or (SEA)RAM already? Or any mk41?

Yeah the Benito Juarez frigates have Mk110, SeaRAM, ESSM, and Harpoon.

 

[Desertfox]

They would be a pretty big step up in sophistication for the Mexican Navy.

I doubt the US would even want to sell them to the Mexicans.

US sold the weapon package for the Benito Juarez frigates, almost sold OHPs at one time, and Mexico has been in talks about acquiring some of the sulprus Independence class LCS.

 

[Jimmo952]

US sold the weapon package for the Benito Juarez frigates, almost sold OHPs at one time, and Mexico has been in talks about acquiring some of the sulprus Independence class LCS.

I understand, but the Constellations would bring Aegis and a much more powerful radar.

The US might need to take military against the Mexican narco-state in the future.

I doubt the US will sell them anything too capable.

 

[DJK]

750 rounds(engagements), easily replenishable at sea. We're comparing to single digit ammo count(on MALEs, nothing on smaller drones), going directly against loiter time and altitude.

If you tried to sail a Zumwalt through a choke point like that, there would be enough projectiles coming your way to exhaust all 80 VLS worth of missiles. You would have to ruin the RCS with a while battery of 30mm mounts.

The other guy in the quote flies, sails nuke submarines, and so on.
The range off the coast is absolutely irrelevant; for SSGN, you're equally vulnerable 25 miles off and 250 miles off coast.
Threat instead is defined by redfor missile pool(at sea and overall, as these are high-end missiles with highly limited available stock), making threat levels effectively "flat".

You have to be able to defend (or assume you can not, and sometimes luck is just not on your side) against this threat regardless of proximity to the coast.

We have missiles for taking out satellites and UAVs.

Doesn’t matter if Burke wasn’t designed for ASW, constellation class didn’t need to be a 7k ton ship with top tier radar in order to be the fleet’a ASW platform.

Please don't take out satellites with your missiles, there are better options that are less likely to cause a Kessler syndrome. And there are other threads where we try to figure out how to efficiently deal with UAVs without draining missile stocks (and their replacement budget). Anyway Burke III has the current top tier radar, not Constellation, which has other functions that complement Burke's limitations quite well.

Are you implying that fiber optic FPV drones are some how a threat to a zumwalt sitting 50 miles off shore?

They might be. Although the demand for fibre has pushed up international prices for fibre optics.

Small FPV doesn't fly 25 nmi....it takes a munition of normal size - perfectly fine target for original DBR and 2x mk.110.

Drones from a couple of years ago maybe, but you can build stuff with the batteries/fuel to reach where you need. Apparently even Ukrainian housewives can build them lol.

It is narrow, but it isn't that narrow. Normal naval LO target(light subsonic ASCM) engagement horizon is below half that number...

The choke pount literally is, and Oman wouldn't like you trying to sail overland.

 

[cccgong]

There's hundreds of normal (non-cube/micro sats) chinese sat that do EO/Radar/SIGINT not to mention commercial systems. You'll never take them all out.

 

[Jimmo952]

Spoken as someone who doesn't know the reality and just gets snippets of news here and there.

Quite the contrary.

There is no threat to Mexico that requires AEGIS and advanced anti-air capabilities.

The threats to Mexico stem from broken institutions, extreme corruption and questionable economic policies.

The Philippines would be a better candidate as the external security threat is very real as is the desire to do something about it.

To get back on topic, I think it unlikely these ships will be sold.

 

[DWG]

Are you implying that fiber optic FPV drones are some how a threat to a zumwalt sitting 50 miles off shore?

No, that a Zumwalt sitting 25 miles offshore, or less, as the From the Sea CONOPS required, is absolutely in their engagement zone.

A Zumwalt 50 miles offshore is in any case still in their engagement zone if they're staged off a Sea Baby or similar. For that matter, 50 miles off shore is within range of the latest Lancets, And of course Ukraine has demonstrated Sea Baby strikes at considerably greater distance.

 

[DWG]

Small FPV doesn't fly 25 nmi....it takes a munition of normal size - perfectly fine target for original DBR and 2x mk.110.

Lancets are reportedly reaching out to 100km+ nowadays. Meanwhile Zumwalt lost the 57mm Mk 110s in development and ended up with the considerably less capable 30mm Mk 46 Mod 2 instead, while DBR (aka SPY-3 + SPY-4) ended up with SPY-3 only and that having to fill in for SPY-4's search role.

Furthermore, Iran isn't exactly great at small drones;

Have you somehow missed the Shaheds impacting all over the mid-East and Ukraine? Plus the common border with Russia? Not to mention the existing Iranian order for Lancets?

It is narrow, but it isn't that narrow.

I'm not sure how wide the navigable channel in the strait is, but it's definitely under 21-22nm (Larak to the islands on the Omani side, or the Tunbs to Abu Musa - both Iranian, incidentally). And as noted, the Zumwalt CONOPS assumed it and the ARG would be that close inshore, if not closer, wherever in the world they were.

 

[Ainen]

Lancets are reportedly reaching out to 100km+ nowadays. Meanwhile Zumwalt lost the 57mm Mk 110s in development and ended up with the considerably less capable 30mm Mk 46 Mod 2 instead, while DBR (aka SPY-3 + SPY-4) ended up with SPY-3 only and that having to fill in for SPY-4's search role.

Lancet isn't all that small. It isn't especially difficult to engage, especially over open sea.

The Mk.110s were indeed lost, as was DBR, and even AGS(and, as such, the whole mission); however, we were discussing the original concept.
Could vanilla Zumwalt, properly maintained ASUW LCS and Constellation class sealed Hormuz off from Iran? My answer is very likely yes. Iranian flotilla warfighting system can place unaffordable risks only for a non-adapted blue water navy, and even that just barely.
As such, the current situation is a pure failure of procurement for a long-anticipated problem.

Have you somehow missed the Shaheds impacting all over the mid-East and Ukraine? Plus the common border with Russia? Not to mention the existing Iranian order for Lancets?

They aren't small. Small drones are those that meaningfully pass under modern CIWS, over sea(which is harder).
Shahed/Harpy is in a small MALE weight/size class, really.

I'm not sure how wide the navigable channel in the strait is, but it's definitely under 21-22nm (Larak to the islands on the Omani side, or the Tunbs to Abu Musa - both Iranian, incidentally). And as noted, the Zumwalt CONOPS assumed it and the ARG would be that close inshore, if not closer, wherever in the world they were.

Yes. My idea is that you can expect normal enough AA engagement if your stand-off from land matches at least the 1980s engagement area for surface-hugging ASCM.

Which was often <5 miles-ish (and with good low observable properties, it isn't especially better nowadays) - and self-defense was still perfectly doable, proven on multiple occasions.
This was done against weapons more or less equal to modern Iranian ASCMs, but at defensive and sensor level far below modern standard.

 

[johnpjones1775]

No, that a Zumwalt sitting 25 miles offshore, or less, as the From the Sea CONOPS required, is absolutely in their engagement zone.

A Zumwalt 50 miles offshore is in any case still in their engagement zone if they're staged off a Sea Baby or similar. For that matter, 50 miles off shore is within range of the latest Lancets, And of course Ukraine has demonstrated Sea Baby strikes at considerably greater distance.

Is the sea baby also operated via fiber optics?

 

[Titus K]

A containerized and automated version of Captas-4 to be mounted on a USV, could this be the solution for FF(X) ?

What's next for the Thales sonar systems destined for cancelled U.S. Navy frigates? - Naval News

Thales gave insights into the CAPTAS-4 Variable Depth Sonar (VDS) systems once destined for the now cancelled Constellation-class of frigates

www.navalnews.com

 

[cccgong]

A containerized and automated version of Captas-4 to be mounted on a USV, could this be the solution for FF(X) ?

What's next for the Thales sonar systems destined for cancelled U.S. Navy frigates? - Naval News

Thales gave insights into the CAPTAS-4 Variable Depth Sonar (VDS) systems once destined for the now cancelled Constellation-class of frigates

www.navalnews.com

That doesn’t solve the noise issue. The NSC was so vibration prone that the early hulls needed to be retrofitted to stop the vibration from effecting their service life.

 

[Jimmo952]

That doesn’t solve the noise issue. The NSC was so vibration prone that the early hulls needed to be retrofitted to stop the vibration from effecting their service life.

I am not saying the hulls are quiet but structural problems with the hulls were corrected years ago.

The Coast Guard runs their ships hard.

There have been supply chain issues that have been problematic.

With the Navy jumping on the platform, it is reasonable to expect the money will be there to support a more robust supply chain.

 

[cccgong]

I am not saying the hulls are quiet but structural problems with the hulls were corrected years ago.

The Coast Guard runs their ships hard.

There have been supply chain issues that have been problematic.

With the Navy jumping on the platform, it is reasonable to expect the money will be there to support a more robust supply chain.

I agree the structural issues were solved. However if there was that amount of vibration to begin with the hulls are likely quite loud. I also can’t imagine hull silencing was much of a consideration for a coast guard ship without sonar

 

[DJK]

That doesn’t solve the noise issue. The NSC was so vibration prone that the early hulls needed to be retrofitted to stop the vibration from effecting their service life.

I was saying that a VDS with automated launch/recovery could go on a MUSV like Sea Hunter. The only use for FF(X) would be servicing the USVs and providing a ASW helo. Put the seaboat back on the launch ramp so engineers can get out to do repairs in any weather.

 

[cccgong]

I was saying that a VDS with automated launch/recovery could go on a MUSV like Sea Hunter. The only use for FF(X) would be servicing the USVs and providing a ASW helo. Put the seaboat back on the launch ramp so engineers can get out to do repairs in any weather.

I agree it would help. However this now means your expensive usv mother ship has 0 self defense capabilities and needs to be pair with another ship.

Also I’m skeptical the NSC would work as a usv mother ship due to the size of future usv that will work in the ASW role (200 tons or more)

 

[DJK]

Lancets are reportedly reaching out to 100km+ nowadays. Meanwhile Zumwalt lost the 57mm Mk 110s in development and ended up with the considerably less capable 30mm Mk 46 Mod 2 instead, while DBR (aka SPY-3 + SPY-4) ended up with SPY-3 only and that having to fill in for SPY-4's search role.

Have you somehow missed the Shaheds impacting all over the mid-East and Ukraine? Plus the common border with Russia? Not to mention the existing Iranian order for Lancets?

If Russia replaced Moskva with a modern destroyer or just parked any still functioning frigate 25NM (or even 50) off coast of Ukraine for shore bombardment, there would be a lot more hardware headed for it than was required for Moskva. This time there could easily be 100 or more 100km+ strike UAVs targeting the radar and bridge, 30 or so Seababies attacking simultaneously, several recon UAVs would get allocated to such a high priority job, a spread of UUVs waiting for the USVs to hem in their target, perhaps a few more Neptunes, and some support USVs with guns and air defence. It would be a very coordinated strike. The further from shore, the fewer UAVs would be available and the bigger they would have to be, but a USV could launch a few small ones. They would want capability to destroy Seababy and recon types pretty quickly, as soon as they are identified as hostile. Not the time to be clearing a jammed 30mm or reloading. Variations of this scenario could also apply to the Taiwan strait (for both sides) with more of a melee flavour.

So i dont think any FF is going to be survivable doing an opposed blockade run in the near future, certainly not against a peer enemy. Better chances of using your own low cost drones to wear the enemy down.

Keep your FF/DDG/BBG/whatever 1000NM away from wherever you think the enemy is and dont let them mass low cost munitions at you with a few big missiles in the mix. If you can tempt them to attack you at that range, their own fleet is out of their air denial cover and becomes vulnerable. Maybe you can launch waves of Seababies and recon drones to tempt them?

Is the sea baby also operated via fiber optics?

Technically feasible. Would need a shore station that terminates the fibre at the launch point and feeds a network link. Basically just patching it into the land network and anchoring the fibre. Main problem might be recovering the leftover fibre so it doesnt pollute the ocean, and adding enough kevlar to survive ocean currents without breakage.

 

[DJK]

I agree it would help. However this now means your expensive usv mother ship has 0 self defense capabilities and needs to be pair with another ship.

Also I’m skeptical the NSC would work as a usv mother ship due to the size of future usv that will work in the ASW role (200 tons or more)

Agree. Why would anyone except the "downed aviators" kid want a USV mothership with little self defence priced almost as much as something thats better defended? Kind of like the Nestle milkybar kid... guess you didnt have those ads.

The mothership wouldn't be docking with USVs or anything, just doing support, maybe some C3. And perhaps monitoring that USV navigation hasn't gone haywire. So maybe the only drones it actually hosts are a collection of VTL recon assets that can monitor operations and also relay Link16 from the USV, similar to what coastguard and marines already use.

I really feel its time for Navy to use a "low probability of intercept" signalling protocol. Maybe something compatible with F-35.

 

[cccgong]

Agree. Why would anyone except the "downed aviators" kid want a USV mothership with little self defence priced almost as much as something thats better defended? Kind of like the Nestle milkybar kid... guess you didnt have those ads.

The mothership wouldn't be docking with USVs or anything, just doing support, maybe some C3. And perhaps monitoring that USV navigation hasn't gone haywire. So maybe the only drones it actually hosts are a collection of VTL recon assets that can monitor operations and also relay Link16 from the USV, similar to what coastguard and marines already use.

I really feel its time for Navy to use a "low probability of intercept" signalling protocol. Maybe something compatible with F-35.

I don't think there's any value you add by having a USV support ship close by, that couldn't be done with another drone ship expect for USV recovery/maintenance/fueling. The reason you would want crewed ships for vessels with large radars/lasers/power generation/large amounts of missiles is those objects are expensive and you want low likelihood of jamming being effective and some amount of damage control/fault tolerance.

In the mid term I don't see much reason for anything up to and including FFGX sized to not be fully automated.

 

[DWG]

Is the sea baby also operated via fiber optics?

SATCOM, and you daisy-chain the FPV drone's fibre-optic over that link, or install a second Starlink terminal on the Sea Baby just for the FPV drone(s).

 

[DWG]

we were discussing the original concept.
Could vanilla Zumwalt, properly maintained ASUW LCS and Constellation class sealed Hormuz off from Iran? My answer is very likely yes.

If the Iranians were facing that threat, they would have adapted to it.

However, I'm not convinced Cebrowski's dream team could reliably take on the current threat either. While Iran has hit back in ways we weren't expecting, targeting the Gulf States, it hasn't actually gone all out. We haven't seen a sustained mining effort, we haven't seen a scaled-up Houthi-style counter-shipping campaign, we haven't seen a sustained swarm attack, we haven't seen a sustained counter oil terminal campaign, we haven't seen special forces activity, nor a general rising by their surrogates (look how quiet the Houthis have been). Yes, some of those assets have been attritted, but could the US have kept the ships on station to keep the Strait open if every Gulf ally is screaming for help because their oil terminals are under 24 hour Shahed attack, not to mention IRGC SOF blowing up pipelines in the desert and lobbing RPGs into government offices, while ships are hitting mines up and down the full length of the Gulf, and other ships are reporting they're under attack from FIAC swarms and USVs.

Iran doesn't even need those attacks to succeed, as we've literally just seen, it just needs the threat of them to bring the traffic through the Straits to a grinding halt.

 

[Colonial-Marine]

If the Iranians were facing that threat, they would have adapted to it.

However, I'm not convinced Cebrowski's dream team could reliably take on the current threat either. While Iran has hit back in ways we weren't expecting, targeting the Gulf States, it hasn't actually gone all out. We haven't seen a sustained mining effort, we haven't seen a scaled-up Houthi-style counter-shipping campaign, we haven't seen a sustained swarm attack, we haven't seen a sustained counter oil terminal campaign, we haven't seen special forces activity, nor a general rising by their surrogates (look how quiet the Houthis have been). Yes, some of those assets have been attritted, but could the US have kept the ships on station to keep the Strait open if every Gulf ally is screaming for help because their oil terminals are under 24 hour Shahed attack, not to mention IRGC SOF blowing up pipelines in the desert and lobbing RPGs into government offices, while ships are hitting mines up and down the full length of the Gulf, and other ships are reporting they're under attack from FIAC swarms and USVs.

Iran doesn't even need those attacks to succeed, as we've literally just seen, it just needs the threat of them to bring the traffic through the Straits to a grinding halt.

Shahed numbers aren't infinite, I doubt they had the capacity to spam many more than what they were already were doing during the height of this fighting. Even well dispersed stockpiles can only launch them so quickly and the flow of replacements is going to be slower than the rate they're being expended.

A sustained mining effort would put their own naval and air assets at greater risk which honestly might be preferable to the present state of things since everyone is already acting as if there is a high mine risk.

I'd wager the sort of material support the Houthis usually get is much reduced since Iran needs it all for themselves now.

 

[Firefinder]

Also doesnt help that all that gear needed to support that effort got freaking DELETED within the first week.

Remember Iran been THE pain in the middle east for the last near 50 years, there has a been ALOT of recon assets from Sats to boots on the ground looking at their everything the entire time.

The List been made, it been check THICE and most the stuff Iran needs to go out... Got deleted in a few nights.

Leaving Iran with basically the fun issue of...

I have all this ammo...

AND NOTHING TO SHOT IT WITH.

Well in this case they have a fraction of what they need to actually shot it all in a realistic timetable they are STILL being shot at as well as stuff miss gets found and hit. IE instead of the needed 20000 dudes, they now got 200, and one gets head shot everytime they pop up.

The point of all those Tomahawks and JASSMs were to degrade Iran ability to go all out and that worked well.

Recon for the win happens again.


So long as Recon assets remain in play, stuff like the FFX have a hope of working. Still Prefer that the FFG gets unfucked with the LCSs but I take anything for the navy at this point.

 

[Desertfox]

Quite the assumption you made there. Let's just say the situation is not quite as dire for Iran as it was stated. Lets remember Israel claimed 70% of lran launchers destroyed 3 days in, only for the US to confirm that only like 30% had been destroyed a month later.

 

[DWG]

Shahed numbers aren't infinite, I doubt they had the capacity to spam many more than what they were already were doing during the height of this fighting.

We know launching a hundred Shaheds at once is easily viable because we've seen the Russians do it. It should be easier for the Iranians. But they haven't really focussed their attacks in the way the Russians have, mostly it seems to have been low numbers in a scattergun harassment/intergovernmental message 'we could do worse' mode. If they salvoed a hundred or more towards a Kuwaiti refinery before breakfast, then another hundred towards a UAE oil terminal in time for elevenses, you can bet every US ambassador to a Gulf state would be skipping lunch while trying to fend off the demands to have US warships off their ports protecting their infrastructure. And the US would have to respond, diluting the assets available in the Straits.

A sustained mining effort would put their own naval and air assets at greater risk which honestly might be preferable to the present state of things since everyone is already acting as if there is a high mine risk.

Iranian merchant shipping has been sailing freely for the last month, there's been plentiful opportunity for mine laying from ostensibly civilian platforms. And given the distance from Iranian ports to the shipping channels there's certainly the opportunity for minelaying from small craft and even minisubs. They don't need to sow mines in such density as to close the channel to a determined vessel, just sufficient to worry the ship-owners and have them demanding sweeping operations.

I'd wager the sort of material support the Houthis usually get is much reduced since Iran needs it all for themselves now.

Undoubtedly, but we've only seen local harassment level operations, and I suspect the Houthis and the Iraqi militias are capable of more.

 

[DWG]

The List been made, it been check THICE

And they still managed to hit a school that stopped being a target a decade ago. The accuracy of the US target list is open to question.

 

[Kat Tsun]

And they still managed to hit a school that stopped being a target a decade ago. The accuracy of the US target list is open to question.

What's more American than using a target list from the Bush era in the late 2020s?

Maybe using tourist maps because the MI ones are 20 years out of date I guess.