Oreshnik MRBM

[Scott Kenny]

They are probably talking about re-entry speeds to the atmosphere.
View attachment 797732
I guess the significance is that maybe the warheads get released earlier during flight and manage to maintain high re-entry speeds towards the atmosphere as MRBM/IRBMs

You do know that once the boosters burn out, that's the fastest the RVs get, right?

 

[jeffb]

You do know that once the boosters burn out, that's the fastest the RVs get, right?

Unless the RVs have their own boosters of course.

 

[paralay]

Tactical Picture of Employment:​

1. Engagement Process:

• The missile follows a quasi-ballistic trajectory.
• During the descent phase, the post-boost vehicle ("bus") sequentially deploys 6 guided reentry vehicles.
• Each vehicle, using its own guidance system (INS + GLONASS/stellar correction, possibly with optical terminal guidance), maneuvers towards its designated target.
• At an altitude of 20-30 km, the vehicle releases a cluster of 6 kinetic rods, which proceed to the target ballistically, stabilized aerodynamically.

2. Damage Effect:

• A single target (e.g., a silo, command post) is hit by six rods almost simultaneously from different approach angles (due to cluster dispersion).
• Circular Error Probable (CEP): For the guided vehicle — 5-10 m. For the unguided rods — 20-30 m from the aim point.
• Effect: Guaranteed destruction of a hardened point target.
  • Penetration of protective overhead cover (up to 1 m of steel or 2-3 m of reinforced concrete).
  • Massive blast and shock effects inside the structure.
  • High probability of neutralizing a runway (several craters 3-5 m in diameter rendering it inoperable).
  • Anti-ship capability (penetration of the deck and several internal bulkheads, potentially causing magazine detonation or fires).

3. Strategic Significance:

• Conventional (Non-Nuclear) Deterrence: The capability to deliver a high-precision strike against hardened targets anywhere within range in 10-15 minutes without escalating to nuclear conflict.
• Preemptive/Decapitation Strike: Destruction of command centers, communication nodes, launch facilities, leadership bunkers.
• Counter-PRO Measures: 36 separate objects in flight (6 platforms + 36 rods) create a complex targeting picture for missile defense systems.

---

Summary Table of Characteristics:​

Component	Parameter	Estimated Value
Missile "Rubezh"	Launch Mass	~28.5 t
	Payload (total)	~2050 kg
Reentry Vehicle (Guided)	Quantity	6 units
	Mass per unit (with systems)	~130 kg
	CEP	5-10 m
Kinetic Penetrator Rod	Total Quantity	36 units (6x6)
	Mass per unit (total)	~35 kg
	Core mass (tungsten)	~17 kg
	Impact Velocity	1500-2000 m/s
	Kinetic Energy	~27.5 MJ
	TNT Equivalent	~6.6 kg
	Steel Penetration	up to 0.9 m
	Reinforced Concrete Penetration	up to 2-3 m (due to spalling)
Combat Effectiveness	Targets Engaged per Launch	Up to 6 hardened point targets (one per vehicle) or 1-2 area targets (airfield, base)
	Time of Flight (for 6000 km)	12-18 minutes

Summary: The configuration with six guided reentry vehicles, each carrying six kinetic penetrator rods, transforms the "Rubezh" into an extremely effective high-readiness global conventional strike weapon. It is capable of solving strategic tasks in a non-nuclear conflict that were previously only achievable with tactical nuclear weapons. This represents a "first-strike" or "decapitation" weapon with minimal collateral damage but guaranteed lethality against hardened targets.

 

[Austin]

Paralay , It would be interest to know if Oreshnik can target a slow moving ship at Sea or CBG as it deploys 6 guided reentry vehicles ?

If the same thing is implemented in a ICBM they can get a higher impact velocity of above 4 km/sec

 

[Forest Green]

So do the rods get released pre-impact then? And where is the guidance system located in that diagram, and where is the steering system also for that matter @paralay?

(6 platforms + 30 rods)

So is that actually 5 rods per unit not 6?

 

[paralay]

There is one combat unit in the picture, and there are six of them, the control system on the bus

 

[paralay]

So is that actually 5 rods per unit not 6?

fixed it, the neural network was missing

 

[paralay]

Paralay , It would be interest to know if Oreshnik can target a slow moving ship at Sea or CBG as it deploys 6 guided reentry vehicles ?

Aiming at a moving target is possible for a monoblock, but it is most likely impossible for separating parts.

 

[Forest Green]

There is one combat unit in the picture, and there are six of them, the control system on the bus

The bus of the 6 combat units or the main missile bus they came off?

So 6 x [130kg combat bus + (6x35kg rods)] = 6 x 340kg = 2,040kg (~2,050kg)? Correct?

Guidance in the nose of combat unit? Radar, GPS? Steering actuators, can't see them in diagram?

 

[paralay]

The breeding system (bus) is borrowed from the Bulava ballistic missile, along with the guidance system

 

[Scott Kenny]

I was not expecting RFGs.

Or optically guided RVs.

Where's the Spanish Inquisition meme?

 

[EmoBirb]

After increased activity at Kapustin Yar, it seems like another test launch of Oreshnik has taken place, this time against a target in Lvov. Once again without warheads.

Edit: some added footage

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1q7rwj6/ua_pov_more_footage_of_the_oreshnik_warheads

View: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1q7rwj6/ua_pov_more_footage_of_the_oreshnik_warheads/?share_id=aHae3tiD6NzXvKqT1A15c&utm_content=1&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_source=share&utm_term=1

 

[jeffb]

After increased activity at Kapustin Yar, it seems like another test launch of Oreshnik has taken place, this time against a target in Lvov. Once again without warheads.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2009393354732392582

View: https://x.com/i/status/2009393354732392582

 

[ComradeVortex]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2009393289527738737

View: https://x.com/clashreport/status/2009393289527738737?s=20

https://twitter.com/x/status/2009411241618325701

View: https://x.com/clashreport/status/2009411241618325701?s=20


Definitely looks like Oreshnik to me

Edit: I don’t know if you guys posted the same videos as for some reason I can’t see them or access the link. I apologize if I sent the same ones.

 

[jeffb]

Current speculation is that the Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske underground gas storage (UGS) facility outside Lvov was hit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2009400281067606398

View: https://x.com/i/status/2009400281067606398

 

[ComradeVortex]

Current speculation is that the Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske underground gas storage (UGS) facility outside Lvov was hit.

A minority of reports speculate it was a training ground for the AFU but the mainstream thinks it’s the UGS

 

[superknight]

Can someone explain how it manage to penetrate deep (100m ?) into the UGS if that were have been the case?

 

[Forest Green]

No sign of secondary fireballs. Didn't count 36 objects.

 

[Dilandu]

Can someone explain how it manage to penetrate deep (100m ?) into the UGS if that were have been the case?

Plain old kinetic energy of solid slugs, moving at several kilometers per second.

 

[leiter]

...

 

[Forest Green]

Russia says it used new Oreshnik missile in major attack on Ukraine​

Russia says it used new Oreshnik missile in major attack on Ukraine

The attack comes amid a new chill in relations between Moscow and Washington after Russia condemned the US seizure of an oil tanker in the North Atlantic.

www.defensenews.com

 

[Forest Green]

Plain old kinetic energy of solid slugs, moving at several kilometers per second.

Chinese scientific study challenges concept for ‘rods from God’ weapon

Theorised hypersonic tungsten rod weapon might not be as effective as previously thought

www.scmp.com

'Rods from God' not that destructive, Chinese study finds

A new research paper indicates that the "Cold War" superweapon "Rods from God" would not have been as effective as many believe.

interestingengineering.com

“There is a maximum penetration depth of about 80 times that of the projectile diameter at the speed of 1.2km per second [about 3.5 times the speed of sound],” Fu’s team said. Increasing the speed to hypersonic levels, beyond Mach 5, would not result in the tungsten rod penetrating any further into the concrete. “The penetration depth under ultra-high speed conditions has no advantages over medium and low-speed penetration,” the team said.

 

[Forest Green]

I'm unsure if I'd want to cite the south china morning post, good thing Deino isn't active in this thread, it's his personal trigger.

The point is based on research and merely confirms the same conclusions that a study of the US's own Rods from Gods research reached some time ago.

You are aware of the hypocrisy, right? I'll tell Dimitri Medvedev to post a picture with a big red X over it, given as that's the standard of "proof" accepted by the gullible masses.

Actually not at all, even when the evidence is clear and damning it is still questioned:

#588

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/almaz-antey-s-400-triumph-sa-21-growler-tabm-sam.2985/post-862068

Then the converse:

#94

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/oreshnik-mrbm.44854/post-868635

#1,048

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/su-30-su-33-su-34-and-su-35-news-thread-pictures-and-discussion.32631/post-866163

As for the strike, there has been no footage of anything within immediate vicinity of the impact, as per usual. Footage is quick to emerge when it's impossible to hide, like when targets in urban regions are destroyed, or when it's too embarrassing to show and has to be hidden at all costs. They'll wait again a couple weeks to release grainy satellite footage, say nothing happened although all the heating and in parts electricity went out and yet the next time another missile is launched they bitch and moan on social media again.

Schrödingers missile - doesn't cause any damage but leaves thousands of households without gas and causes a meltdown everytime it's used.

This phenomenon needs to be studied.

It is indeed Schrodinger's missile because all evidence of it remains hidden in a box.

 

[ComradeVortex]

Amazing how burdens of proof change thread to thread.

The same applies especially for the opposite side

I'm just making fun of the incredibly stupid and rotten propaganda that can be found everywhere in social media

 

[EmoBirb]

The point is based on research and merely confirms the same conclusions that a study of the US's own Rods from Gods research reached some time ago.

The point is that the research is cited by a Chinese tabloid, presented in a way meant to present US research into high velocity penetrators as futile and a vanity project.

Context is important.

 

[Dilandu]

Chinese scientific study challenges concept for ‘rods from God’ weapon

Theorised hypersonic tungsten rod weapon might not be as effective as previously thought

www.scmp.com

'Rods from God' not that destructive, Chinese study finds

A new research paper indicates that the "Cold War" superweapon "Rods from God" would not have been as effective as many believe.

interestingengineering.com

Amazing how burdens of proof change thread to thread. E.g. Video of S-400 being blown up in HD - person complains because it's not in UHD, poor evidence. Tweet with a random picture of an Su-35 claiming Su-27 shootdown (unconfirmed) - concrete proof. Tweet claiming UGS blown up despite no fireballs or confirmations by official Russian or Ukrainian sources - concrete proof yet again.

And? What are you trying to prove? That penetration of kinetic elements would not be enough to reach underground gas storage? Kinda obvious. What are you missing is a shockwave from hypersonic strikes travelling down. Underground gas storages aren't exactly concrete bunkers; being badly shaken could rupture the access pipes, cause deformation of overlaying layers. Which would made gas storage unusable for some time.

You seems to think that projectile need to directly enter some kind of "underground gas tank" to deal damage. Not so; and there are often no "gas tank" at all. The gas is usually stored in porous rocks layers, squeezed between layers of dense rock. It's not some "deeply buried concrete chambers" or something.

 

[yahya]

More imagery of Oreshink parts recovered by the Ukrainians.

Полковник ГШ

Фрагменти БРСД РС-26 «Рубіж» (львівська область) 09.01.26 ▪️ блок стабілізації і наведення ▪️ запчастини з двигунної установки ▪️ фрагменти механізму орієнтації ▪️ сопла з платформи блоку розведення тощо

t.me

 

[Null]

more info on the missile.

 

[ComradeVortex]

I've seen some minor speculation about the target being the Lvov State Aircraft Repair Plant, as always I will further wait for confirmation.

EDIT 2: The Lvov State Aircraft Repair Plant was indeed targeted

 

[Apophenia]

BTW, its Lviv (Львів) not 'Lvov' (Львов).

 

[ComradeVortex]

I've seen some minor speculation about the target being the Lvov State Aircraft Repair Plant, as always I will further wait for confirmation.

EDIT: AMK Mapping in his missile attack report ultimately says ths the target was indeed the UGS.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2009804321282777503

View: https://x.com/i/status/2009804321282777503

 

[ComradeVortex]

Based on the Ru MoD reports, they said they targeted energy infrastructure supplying the Ukrainian Military-Industrial Complex. Hence the confusion about the USG. It's more likely that Gerans target the energy infrastructure, while (Oreshnik) targeted the MIC directly

 

[Forest Green]

Russia’s Oreshnik Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile Used In Large-Scale Attack On Ukraine​

Russia's Oreshnik Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile Used In Large-Scale Attack On Ukraine

Russia's second Oreshnik IRBM attack was part of a huge missile and drone barrage, but its significance may have been mainly symbolic. The second Oreshnik was fired as part of a huge missile and drone barrage, but its significance was mainly symbolic.

www.twz.com

 

[ComradeVortex]

So, all civilian infrastructure as usual.

Apparently it stored and repaired MiG-29s and F-16s

 

[EmoBirb]

I've seen some minor speculation about the target being the Lvov State Aircraft Repair Plant, as always I will further wait for confirmation.

EDIT 2: The Lvov State Aircraft Repair Plant was indeed targeted

I've seen the rumor too, if true a very interesting choice of target. Possibly where the Mirage and F-16s and their munitions are stored? But I haven't seen anything yet that points either way (aviation facility or gas storage) in a concrete manner. So for now lots of question marks, little answers.

 

[EmoBirb]

To quote:

The Lviv State Aviation Repair Plant (Львівський Державний авіаційно-ремонтний завод, abbreviated as LDARZ) is an aircraft repair plant of the Ukrainian Defense Industry. It was founded on October 15, 1939, in the city of Lviv. The factory specializes in the repair of the Mikoyan MiG-29 jet fighter.

If the actual target, it's a military facility. Although these days probably diversified away from MiGs, of which only a few still exist, and possibly more so used as a hub for aviation equipment in general. The relative proximity to Poland would suggest as such. And this can still be seen as a target that validates the usage of the Oreshnik missile system.

 

[flateric]

View: https://www.youtube.com/live/kKS7OYZoVdE

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYRQnFXjywk

 

[Avimimus]

Are there any chemical explosives that can withstand those kinds of temperatures, but are pressure sensitive, and would react fast enough to increase the energy released on impact? Some composite detonated by the force of impact itself. Is it possible at those scales (density, impact speed)?

 

[Dilandu]

Are there any chemical explosives that can withstand those kinds of temperatures, but are pressure sensitive, and would react fast enough to increase the energy released on impact? Some composite detonated by the force of impact itself. Is it possible at those scales (density, impact speed)?

It's pointless - at over 3 km/s, the energy released from kinetic impact would be greater than releazed from the same mass of explosives. And since explosives are usually less dense than chunks of solid metal, for hypervelocity projectiles there are no real need to carry any (unless you want a hypervelocity shrapnel, and so need some bursting charge inside).

 

[Archibald]

Oreshnik : much ado about nothing. I'll wait until Maxar satellites show damage, if any.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 9, 2026

Officials confirmed that Russian forces conducted an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strike against Lviv Oblast.

understandingwar.org