Looking back at the original post, I think the only way you get the Terrier program to die without Talos also dying is if the buyer decides that (a) duplication of effort is inappropriate and (b) Tartar isn't necessary either. The developmental side of the STV program has to work, HAS to, or Talos doesn't eventuate.
In that case, the most likely solution for the near-range missile if the demand is subsequently perceived is a surface-launched version of Sparrow once it's evolved to SARH - in other words, BPDMS comes in early, although it's possible that the Navy might go for a miniaturized version of the Mk11.