Thanks Ozair, so it looks like the nominee for the US Navy's next Chief of Naval Operations is adding his support to the F/A-XX and if he gets elected to the post it would be good news for the future of the program.
 
Thanks Ozair, so it looks like the nominee for the US Navy's next Chief of Naval Operations is adding his support to the F/A-XX and if he gets elected to the post it would be good news for the future of the program.
I'm not sure you can draw that conclusion from the quote. Yes he wants the jet but the administration doesn't want to give him the money for it. Claude was nominated by Trump, how much pushback to the administration is he going to give?
 
Which would be a bad mistake for the US Navy, they should bite the bullet and anounce the winner now and be done with it instead of having the Super Hornets soldier on for another few years.
They already screwed the pooch once, when they cancelled NATF, let's hope they get it right this time.
 
Wouldn't cancelling the F/A-XX force the USN to keep the Super Hornet production line open for longer so that it can replace the oldest F/A-18E/Fs in service?
 
Which would be a bad mistake for the US Navy, they should bite the bullet and anounce the winner now and be done with it instead of having the Super Hornets soldier on for another few years.
USN can't announce a winner of a program that the Office of the Secretary of Defense has put the brakes on. OSD is driving this non-decision, Navy is complaining as loudly as they can without being insubordinate.
 
Wouldn't cancelling the F/A-XX force the USN to keep the Super Hornet production line open for longer so that it can replace the oldest F/A-18E/Fs in service?
It will force them to request funding for more Super Hornets, they'd only be able to keep the line open if they got the money.
 
Disagree. Caudle said retrofit old aircraft, ie SH, and increase production of F-35C. The SH fleet is already going through Blk 3 upgrades which extent the life of the airframes and increase capability but it would not be wise to invest in more SH when the F-35C is in production and better equipped to handle other 5th and 6th gen threats from China.

Adding just 15 F-35C a year to the USN would significantly change the mix of the USN CVW and would also benefit the SH fleet by extending that out comfortably into the 2040s.
 
The SH fleet is already going through Blk 3 upgrades which extent the life of the airframes and increase capability

What about remanufacturing block 1 SHs (As in completely dismantling, identifying and discarding the fatigued parts with new parts and rebuilding them with a new block 2 or 3 nose section).
 
What about remanufacturing block 1 SHs (As in completely dismantling, identifying and discarding the fatigued parts with new parts and rebuilding them with a new block 2 or 3 nose section).
Not sure what the current state of the Blk 1 fleet is. There were 138 built and they cannot be upgraded to Blk III. This article from 2018 said the following,

Most of the Super Hornets that come through the SLM will be Block II aircraft, but Gillian notes, ‘We expect some Block Is, but the exact numbers have not yet been set.’ Block I Super Hornets cannot be converted to accept Block III standard and would simply be refurbished for extended service life.
 
The problem isn't just replacing aging super hornets or not. The problem is it doesn't matter what block super hornet or what age super hornet you are getting. Even at the present, they are already inadequate in performing their strike role against a peer power.

Your baseline entry in 2025 is something like an F-35 level of LO + sensors. That's only going to go higher as time goes on. If we can't even get that, we might as just go home.

Personally - it's for that reason that I don't think F/A-XX is getting cancelled just like how I didn't believe NGAD was getting cancelled either. We aren't replacing one aircraft with another because the old aircraft can still operate adequately in the current environment. We are replacing an aircraft because it doesn't actually matter how much you upgrade them anymore - they are simply not going to work for what you want to do.

So unless there exists options the DoD deems adaquate as a substitute for F/A-XX then there's really only two answers - its F/A-XX now or a delayed F/A-XX that enters service a few years behind F-47. Even with questionable leadership, it takes a seismic shift in geopolitical goals to cancel this program. I don't think Trump, Hegseth or Phelan are blind to that. Why? Well even something as dumb as cancelling the E-7 was being justified by having AMTI satellites, which tells me that the powers that be still made some ass backwards considerations for capability coverage before attempting to delete programs.

I understand why people want to jump to conclusions but maybe some perspective would help. There is urgency to modernize now and so it shouldn't be surprising that suddenly everything needs to get done and nothing looks like its getting done. It will get worse before it gets better.

Quite frankly, I'm still not convinced that this wasn't a deliberate plan to force congress's hand. Ask for the would likes in the budget request and zero out the absolute must have program and suddenly congress has no choice not to fund both your would likes and your must haves.
 
I still don’t understand why a very long range, big internal payload, high subsonic capabale, multimission UAV is an inferior choice to F/A-XX. Does a USN officer need to be in situ for the action for mission authority or latency reasons? And don’t tell me it’s because someone needs to control the CCAs when you can recapitulate an alpha strike with a single squadron of the same UAV type configured for different roles, without the worry of figuring out CSAR or what to write in letters to next of kin.
 
I still don’t understand why a very long range, big internal payload, high subsonic capabale, multimission UAV is an inferior choice to F/A-XX.


Does a USN officer need to be in situ for the action for mission authority or latency reasons?
It's not the range, payload, speed or modular capability that is the limiting factor. It's the command and control and the cost that is probably the more limiting factor.

1. A non-autonomous drone can be rendered mission incapable with jamming or destruction of control nodes so I won't go further into that.

An autonomous drone is still mission capable on its own. However, autonomous drones still function a lot more like ChatGPT would to a user - it's a force multiplier for the general case it encounters, but it will perform poorly in edge cases. No matter how much you program for edge cases, there are and will continue to be edge cases that you don't account for. On the other hand, humans tend to be a lot better at things that are confounding still for AI.

The cost of not performing well against an edge case can be as trivial as losing an engagement or the air frame or as bad as shooting down a neutral air liner or bombing a village at peacetime.

2. Drones still doesn't negate the costly requirements that makes a superior aircraft. You still have sensors, materials and software. They still need maintenance and updates (particularly software). A highly capable drone still won't be more numerous or that much cheaper than a manned aircraft and as it sits right now, given the state of command and control, you still won't squeeze nearly as much performance out of an UAV.

3. Lastly, you still need stand in, real time sensors especially when your major communication nodes are going to not always be accessible. As good as generative AI is, it's still not going to be capable of rapidly and adaptively employing counter tactics that doesn't fall within its general cases. Which means the most effective strategies are going to be guaranteed by direct, un-jammable communications to human controlled aircraft within, say a laser data-link's range.

The more likely use cases for CCAs or any autonomous UAVs are something like:
1. The CCA gets told to go somewhere to attack something and leave the maneuver and positioning to the onboard autonomy
2. The CCA searches and acquires targets that are synthesized into a broad picture, the human decides on which targets are cleared to be engaged, and the CCA mob decides which one has the right speed, position, and load out to go get the task done while which ones are going to be performing the support for the attackers.
3. In very very rare cases with highly limited rules of engagement / geographic areas, a pack of CCAs can be sent in and let lose on whatever is moving without any human oversight - say a particular strait between an island and a mainland. Do note that if you aren't able to get into contact with that group of CCAs beyond that point, they very well might do horrifying things that you didn't plan for. If one of your manned aircraft has a malfunctioning IFF transponder and you've driven into a roving hoard of CCAs, well - tough luck for you then.
 
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I still don’t understand why a very long range, big internal payload, high subsonic capabale, multimission UAV is an inferior choice to F/A-XX. Does a USN officer need to be in situ for the action for mission authority or latency reasons? And don’t tell me it’s because someone needs to control the CCAs when you can recapitulate an alpha strike with a single squadron of the same UAV type configured for different roles, without the worry of figuring out CSAR or what to write in letters to next of kin.
I'm not sure that the autonomy programming is there.

For whatever reason, neither service has thrown money into ground-attack drones.
 

“We’re disappointed our employees voted down the richest contract offer we’ve ever presented to IAM 837, which addressed all their stated priorities. We’ve activated our contingency plan and are focused on preparing for a strike. No talks are scheduled with the union,” Boeing said in its statement to the media.


Will the same union be building the F/A-XX if Boeing wins the contract?
 

“We’re disappointed our employees voted down the richest contract offer we’ve ever presented to IAM 837, which addressed all their stated priorities. We’ve activated our contingency plan and are focused on preparing for a strike. No talks are scheduled with the union,” Boeing said in its statement to the media.


Will the same union be building the F/A-XX if Boeing wins the contract?
Sorta.

Depends on whether the F-47 and FAXX are built in the same location, as to whether it's the same local. But the International Association of Machinists represents all aircraft mechanics and assembly line workers.

Would IAM local in Kansas honor a strike by IAM 837 in Washington? Probably. But maybe not if they were a completely separate bargaining unit. There's a good argument to be made that Wichita is far cheaper to live in, so the Wichita employees of Boeing aren't paid quite as much as the ones in Seattle/Renton/Everett. But it could also be written as a location-based cost of living adjustment and all Boeing employees are in the same bargaining unit/contract.

At least this is better than when I was next door to them in the late 1990s. Back then, all Boeing employees belonged to the Boeing Employees union. And it never failed that whenever some contract was in trouble with late deliveries etc, some random bargaining unit (one time it was engineers, another time it was secretaries when I was paying attention) would raise a stink about their contract and go on strike. Which meant that the entirety of Boeing Employees would go on strike because they're all the same union and local. It was highly suspicious back then and I suspect that is why it's no longer the BEU but the IAM.
 
the dreams about F-35C are nice but just a dreams how many of the Nimitz and that one Ford class flat tops can actually support its operations
the answer : only 5 to a degree out of the 11 in service the first to fully support the F-35C is the Enterprise and she may or may not be lunched in November this year
so forget about the whole F-35C for some time the only solution is more SH's


yeah i dont think many of you actually realize how complex is the situation it's not like uga buga we need moar f-35 plens plz congress gif money acquisition isn't working that way
 
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USN can't announce a winner of a program that the Office of the Secretary of Defense has put the brakes on. OSD is driving this non-decision, Navy is complaining as loudly as they can without being insubordinate.
Uniformed Navy, up to and including VCNO and CNO -- yes.
SECNAV Phelan -- not so much.
OSD's decision is driven by 2, possibly 3 fellas: CAPE Director (Acting) Payne; [USD(P) Colby, maybe]; DEPSECDEF Feinberg.
 
For those who are interested in the F/A-XX program, I would recommend they ask the relevant DoD components and Congress for the specific information they are interested in, particularly records that are known to have been disclosed.

You´re surely aware far from everyone (on this forum) who is interested in F/A-XX (and in F-47, Kendall´s AII and the demonstrators etc.) is a U.S. citizen.
 

“We’re disappointed our employees voted down the richest contract offer we’ve ever presented to IAM 837, which addressed all their stated priorities. We’ve activated our contingency plan and are focused on preparing for a strike. No talks are scheduled with the union,” Boeing said in its statement to the media.


Will the same union be building the F/A-XX if Boeing wins the contract?
Unions are a scourge that frequently run their companies into the ground.
 
Doesn’t matter.

You´re right (theoretically), 'everyone' can make use of U.S.´ FOIA.
Still, it´s probably a whole lot easier for US citizens to ask the right questions to the right U.S. authorities, and getting a few replies. And to recontact those U.S. authorities (repeatedly) when received replies are not useful replies or do not provide the wanted information.
 
You´re right (theoretically), 'everyone' can make use of U.S.´ FOIA.
Still, it´s probably a whole lot easier for US citizens to ask the right questions to the right U.S. authorities, and getting a few replies. And to recontact those U.S. authorities (repeatedly) when received replies are not useful replies or do not provide the wanted information.

Why would this be easier for US citizens? Most of what you have discussed here is done over email, not in person.
 
Will the same union be building the F/A-XX if Boeing wins the contract?
Perhaps closer to the heart of the issue: will the same Boeing management that offered the St Louis IAM members half what it offered the Seattle IAM members a year ago still be running the company if it wins the contract?
 
Why would this be easier for US citizens? Most of what you have discussed here is done over email, not in person.

It´s often already a frustrating and time-absorbing mess to get the right replies from one´s own authorities, let alone posing such (annoying) questions to the authorities of a foreign country.
 
Unions are a scourge that frequently run their companies into the ground.
Boeing management to Seattle IAM, 2024: Here's a 38% rise
Boeing management to St Louis IAM, 2025: The most we can offer is a 20% rise

ETA: The reports that the offer to St Louis was 20% are apparently wrong, it was 40%, so it's unclear what provoked the 'overwhelming' rejection.

I [still] think it's a reasonable hypothesis it's not the union who are the problem here.

If your employees wages have fallen that far behind the curve, then management have been the problem for a long time.

This is actually precisely the same issue we've discussed over Boeing quality and safety and reluctance to launch new civil product lines across multiple threads - an over-focus on returns to shareholders for the past couple of decades that required screwing over subcontractors, quality and their own workforce. And yet somehow it's the union's fault, not the management's.
 
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Boeing management to Seattle IAM, 2024: Here's a 38% rise
Boeing management to St Louis IAM, 2025: The most we can offer is a 20% rise

I think it's a reasonable hypothesis it's not the union who are the problem here.

And if your employees wages have fallen that far behind the curve, then management have been the problem for a long time.

This is actually precisely the same issue we've discussed over Boeing quality and safety and reluctance to launch new civil product lines across multiple threads - an over-focus on returns to shareholders for the past couple of decades that required screwing over subcontractors, quality and their own workforce. And yet somehow it's the union's fault, not the management's.
I'm not talking about unions putting a dimple in profits. I'm talking about unions choking the golden goose to the point the company loses contracts or gets hit with financial penalties, due to constant strikes, or goes out of business entirely.

Cost of living is different in Seattle than St Louis.
 
My admittedly limited impression of the problem is that MDD bought Boeing with Boeing's own money, and everything else flows from that. Any noise about a union being what finally makes or breaks the business is at best noise, and more likely indicative of a company so poorly run it shouldn't be in business anymore anyway. Again, that's the MDD management clique's fault.
 
It´s often already a frustrating and time-absorbing mess to get the right replies from one´s own authorities, let alone posing such (annoying) questions to the authorities of a foreign country.

OK, so it's frustrating. It is no more or less frustrating for a non-US citizen to request records from the US government than if a US citizen was to do so. There is no additional barrier for a non-US citizen. The US has well defined processes (FOIA, court records, etc.) for requesting and accessing these records.
 
The USN dilemma is that it has to support its shipping (including subs) and getting the best aircraft it can for the carriers. Boeing and NG can delivery an F/A-XX and both companies multiple large programs underway. If the USN moves forward with F/A-XX, I am hedging on NG being awarded the contract. B-21 is going well and again, the US aerospace military complex needs options with regards to primes in order to maintain innovations, etc. As an example and to my knowledge (anyone correct me if I am wrong) there is no primary subcontractor for the B-21 (LM or Boeing) and NG did not request to have one, the 21 is solo NG, this could happen with F/A-XX as well. But however, I will throw the monkey wrench in, if either Boeing or NG wins, they could maintain the current F/A-18 working relationship.
 
The USN dilemma is that the civilian leadership is orphaning its fighter program, nothing more, nothing less.
 
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. As an example and to my knowledge (anyone correct me if I am wrong) there is no primary subcontractor for the B-21 (LM or Boeing) and NG did not request to have one, the 21 is solo NG, this could happen with F/A-XX as well. But however, I will throw the monkey wrench in, if either Boeing or NG wins, they could maintain the current F/A-18 working relationship.
Of course. A new program wouldn't impact an existing arrangement. Same thing for F-35 and NG participation, NG winning F/A-XX wouldn't change their status as a major subcontractor on that program and same if LM was still in the race and won F/A-XX. The issue is they cannot prime a bid but also be a subcontractor on a competitors bid at the same time for the same program.
 

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