Operation Midnight Hammer

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Justo Miranda said:
Europeans and Americans, safe from danger, are not mentally equipped to understand the depth of this situation, but if Israel falls, Europe will be next.
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And your reasoning is what exactly? Neither American nor European populations would be particularly in danger in such an event. Especially with Iranian political ambitions comfortably limited to Western Asia and it's sea routes.
 
EmoBirb said:
The issue I see for them is that each time the Iranians will be better prepared. Installations more hardened, operations further dispersed, dug in deeper yet again.
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That does not have to be the case though common sense would lead one to believe that this would be their response but common sense would have told us that Iranian air defenses and other activities would have been far superior to what they ended up being if one looks at how freely the IAF was able to conduct operations over Iran or knock out its key leaders and even their replacements in some cases. Israel likewise is going to be monitoring events closely and would make sure that any steps Iran takes are countered. I think they will attempt to employ the playbook they used in Syria where any action above a certain threshold was met with a kinetic response. And the work they've already done around the Iranian air defense degradation, air space, leadership and nuclear facilities should facilitate that. A lot of this cannot be reconstituted in the short term in secret and some of this capability may take a lot longer to build up without generous aid from Russia or China. We will have to wait and see.
 
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Scott Kenny said:
Ever heard of Operation Praying Mantis?

Where the US deleted half the Iranian Navy in about 8 hours?
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That happened, again, seven years after Iran and Iraq functionally closed the strait. The cause of Praying Mantis was, after a year of escorting Kuwaiti tankers, the Sammy B hit a mine. It was a punitive operation for striking an American asset, not an actual response to the Tanker War.

Funnily enough, Iraq did more damage to shipping and US forces...

Anyway, a modern Tanker War would be something the USN isn't prepared to fight, at least at the same time as the Houthis and needing to stage forces in the Pacific. It would go about as well as the Houthis in the best case. In the worst case it would be the Black Sea.
 
Dilandu said:
My idea was basically a quick, unexpected invasion on Tehran in hopes that it would collapse Iranian C3 (both military and civilian) and ruin the regine credibility. Main problem here, such plan did not have much space to maneuver in case something would go wrong.
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Which is the single biggest reason it isn't happening.



EmoBirb said:
Jerusalem is home to one of the holiest sites in Islam, not going to happen. Israel is a nuclear armed nation, another reason it's not going to happen. It's furthermore doubtful the IRGC would be anywhere near the stockpile. They're just paramilitary goons. And even still, they wouldn't just nuke Israel out of the blue.
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As I understand it, the IRGC is the actual power in the country, the one protecting the ayatollah and the mullahs.

Since the Iranian President only serves at the pleasure of the Ayatollah, I expect that the IRGC would be the one in charge of the nukes.

And while Jerusalem might manage to be off the target list, every other city in Israel is ON that target list.



EmoBirb said:
The last nuclear weapons deployment in history was Americans dropping weapons of mass destruction on two cities. Since then nothing happened. People are pretty averse to the usage of nuclear weapons. Even against people they really, really hate. The threat of nuclear retaliation is always far greater than the actual use. Every nuclear power is keenly aware of this, so is Iran.
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That only applies to people who do not see dying as how you get into Paradise (or Heaven). Guess how Islam sees how you get into Heaven?
 
If the Israelis are successful in permanently neutering and therefore neutralising the IRGC then you expect to see the regular Iranian military move fast to take over and remove the mullahs from power, the IRGC is the only thing that is preventing the Iranian theocracy from being overthrown.
 
NMaude said:
If the Israelis are successful in permanently neutering and therefore neutralising the IRGC then you expect to see the regular Iranian military move fast to take over and remove the mullahs from power, the IRGC is the only thing that is preventing the Iranian theocracy from being overthrown.
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Exactly.

And I suspect that this is the Israeli goal. Make it so that the Iranian people throw the theocracy out.
 
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Scott Kenny said:
IRGC Speedboats attacking USN ships, apparently without IRIN knowledge.
IRGC leadership being in Iraq. And Syria. And Lebanon. And Gaza.
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IRIN, not Iranian leadership.
IRGC is not responsible to IRIN, it's on same administrative level.
Why IRGC leadership being abroad amounts to anything?

It's them doing their job, whether we like it's nature or not. There's US leadership in all the same locations other than Gaza.
And, as it turns out, it's people from those operations who do their job in Iran.
People within the country, with exception of missile corps, mostly chill.
 
www.telegraph.co.uk

Nato summit 2025: Trump admits Putin is ‘more difficult’ than he thought

Donald Trump has admitted Vladimir Putin is “more difficult” to deal with than he expected.
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
Iran’s nuclear programme will be “gone for years”, Donald Trump has insisted after a leaked Pentagon report claimed it had only been set back for a few months.

Speaking ahead of today’s Nato summit, the US president insisted that US bombers had “totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities and compared the strike to when America dropped a nuclear bomb on Hiroshima.

“That hit ended the war,” he said as he sat alongside Mark Rutte, the Nato secretary general, and his secretary of state, Marco Rubio.

Asked if the US would strike again if Iran rebuilt its programme, he said: “Sure, but I’m not going to have to worry about that. It’s gone for years.”

It comes after an intelligence report leaked to the New York Times and CNN claimed the country’s bomb programme had only been set back for months.

The strikes on the heavily fortified enrichment facilities at Fordow and Natanz did not do as much damage as US officials hoped, according to an initial assessment.

Mr Trump made the comments after arriving at the Nato summit in the Hague, where leaders are expected to unanimously commit to spending 5 per cent of GDP on defence spending in a bid to placate the US.
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Defense Updates has put out a video about the Tomahawk strike part of this operation:


As part of Operation Midnight Hammer, the U.S. struck Iran.The strike had two components.​
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B-2 Spirit dropped 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators, 30,000 lb bunker busters, on two different sites -12 at Fordo and 2 at Natanz. Also, 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired from a submarine at Isfahan.​
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While officials did not confirm during the briefing, the only vessels in the U.S. Navy capable of launching such a large number of Tomahawk missiles simultaneously are the four Ohio-class nuclear-powered guided missile submarines (SSGNs). According to reports, USS Georgia was involved.​
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In this video, Defense Updates analyzes how USS Georgia pulverized Isfahan Nuclear facility?
#defenseupdates #israeliranwar #usiranwar
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Chapters:
0:00 TITLE
00:11 INTRODUCTION
01:01 SPONSORSHIP - NordVPN
01:35 ISFAHAN NUCLEAR FACILITY
02:35 USS GEORGIA OVERVIEW
04:40 LETHAL PAYLOAD
06:54 ANALYSIS
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bring_it_on said:
but common sense would have told us that Iranian air defenses and other activities would have been far superior to what they ended up being if one looks at how freely the IAF was able to conduct operations over Iran or knock out its key leaders and even their replacements in some cases.
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I recently read the thread about the loss of the RQ-170. Several users brought up how Iranian IADS is essentially a sieve, with a few more heavily defended areas here and there.

I cannot really see what changed since then, with a couple SAM systems just replacing older, obsolete ones. So I don't really see why anyone was surprised about this. Especially as the F-35 for example is pretty much advertised to be able to operate in contested air space and dismantle SAM batteries. If that's a surprise to anyone, I think that was really just a case of overestimating Iranian capabilities. While their strengths are clearly elsewhere, looking at drones and indigenous ballistic missiles here.

We will have to wait and see.
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As usual :D
 
Scott Kenny said:
Which is the single biggest reason it isn't happening.

As I understand it, the IRGC is the actual power in the country, the one protecting the ayatollah and the mullahs.

Since the Iranian President only serves at the pleasure of the Ayatollah, I expect that the IRGC would be the one in charge of the nukes.

And while Jerusalem might manage to be off the target list, every other city in Israel is ON that target list.

That only applies to people who do not see dying as how you get into Paradise (or Heaven). Guess how Islam sees how you get into Heaven?
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If anything, they would most likely form a new branch that recruits from IRGC and the regular military as well as civilian engineers I'd suspect. The IRGC is political, paramilitary organization, like the SA or SS. They're a way to get into certain political circles, work your way up and have some qualities that make them suitable for individual deployments. A tool wielded by the head of state.

That list is indeed very long, but you cannot convince me Israel wouldn't nuke Tehran if push comes to shove. Nuclear balance is a neat way to solve this issue long term. After all neither Washington nor Moscow were nuked in the 20th century? Or New Delhi and Islamabad. Pyongyang and Seoul anyone? You see, if anything a stand off creates an uncomfortable equilibrium where neither side can take measure considered overly drastic. Such destabilizing actions like this operation wouldn't happen, neither would Iran fire ballistics directly at Israel then, as each of these could be considered potentially nuclear.

In Judaism, Christianity and Islam you can only enter into Heaven upon death, with a few prophets and obviously Christ being exceptions to that. I don't think it's worthwhile or even tasteful to try to bring faith into this, tbh.
 
www.theguardian.com

Trump and Hegseth admit doubts about level of damage to Iran nuclear sites

President calls intelligence ‘inconclusive’ while defence secretary describes harm to facilities as ‘moderate to severe’
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Trump: "The intelligence was very inconclusive."
Trump: "The intelligence says we don’t know. It could’ve been very severe. That’s what the intelligence suggests.”
Hegseth: "moderate to severe”
 
New picture and analysis by the BBC.

www.bbc.com

Satellite images reveal new signs of damage at Iranian nuclear sites

The latest imagery shows further damage following Israel's follow-up strikes on key facilities.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

The narrative is that there are signs of a reconstruction but I think that's erroneous. The one thing Iran might want to do, post and pre-strike, should be to limit any contamination to protect their people. IMOHO, that what the sighted activity is all about: burry everythings as fast as possible.

Regarding the infamous lineup of trucks pre-strike, nobody needs 3 dozen of large trucks to move away 200kg or so of enriched Uranium.
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Id like to think that if another Administration made this decision, they would have characterized it as pinpoint strike to disrupt the use of facilities thought to have been involved in JCPAO violations, and that it was a sign of the US’s *future* resolve to actively deny the IR ability to develop nuclear weapons, or the capacity to do so. Which I guess is kinda like saying “total obliteration”.
 
Flyaway said:
www.independent.co.uk

Trump may have just compromised Israeli secrets – again

Donald Trump used the Nato summit to suggest that Israeli agents are on the ground at Iran’s nuclear facilities – it’s not the first time he's blurted secrets, writes world affairs editor Sam Kiley from Tel Aviv
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
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Well if those Mossad agents end up dead because of Trump's loose lips I hope that the Israeli government publicly calls him out and takes him to task.
 
NMaude said:
Well if those Mossad agents end up dead because of Trump's loose lips I hope that the Israeli government publicly calls him out and takes him to task.
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Roundups of elements disaffected with the regime are a standard procedure of any dictatorship, they may have captured a collaborator or a poor man who has expressed his ideas too loudly, but it is not reasonable that the Mossad would have allowed themselves to be captured.

Israelis are tremendously effective at preserving their secrets. I'm completely sure that they would never trust the lives of their people to a guy who has all his strength out of his mouth as soon as he has a good audience. It is also fair to recognize that Trump with his incredible unexpected turn has regained for his country the honor that had been lost in November 1979 and that no other president had had the right stuff to do so.
In my country we say “con un par”

Both are doing a good job (in the dark and inside a minefield) if they get some kind of peace they will go down in history in Hollywood-like letters.
 

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Geoff Brumfiel, senior editor and correspondent on NPR's science desk (fmr. Nature Magazine reporter) goes over what may be behind the concerns expressed in the DIA early, low confidence estimate about the effectiveness of GBU-57 against the Fordo enrichment site. Basically, "it depends enormously on the kind of rock". He traces down penetrator math and science which indicated that according to (current?) theory a single MOP can penetrate 80 meters of silty clay, or 7.9 meters of medium-strength rock.


He uses penetrator equations from Sandia Nat'l Labs' report SAND97-2426 (aptly named "Penetrator Equations", 1997)

Penetration equations (Technical Report) | OSTI.GOV

In 1967, Sandia National Laboratories published empirical equations to predict penetration into natural earth materials and concrete. Since that time there have been several small changes to the basic equations, and several more additions to the overall technique for predicting penetration into...
www.osti.gov www.osti.gov

and also refers to Nat'l Academies' "Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons" (2005).

nap.nationalacademies.org

Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons 2005

Underground facilities are used extensively by many nations to conceal and protect strategic military functions and weapons' stockpiles. Because of their...
nap.nationalacademies.org nap.nationalacademies.org

Retired Los Alamos nuclear scientist also poses some follow-up questions in her blog. I don't presume that the scale of the effects are going to be resolved quickly but this is useful background anyway and provides a sort of a road map of things to keep an eye on going forward.

nucleardiner.wordpress.com

Questions on the Fordo Strike (Wonky)

I have a number of questions about the overhead photos of the bombing at Fordo. I haven’t done a detailed photo analysis like this in a long time – probably back to the photos of what turned out to…
nucleardiner.wordpress.com nucleardiner.wordpress.com
 
Scott Kenny said:
Uhm.

IRGC Speedboats attacking USN ships, apparently without IRIN knowledge.
IRGC leadership being in Iraq. And Syria. And Lebanon. And Gaza.
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What was that line in LEGEND, where a goblin encouraged his minions to take initiative...odd movie.

I remember hearing about how some Turkish stations had rope instead of barbed wire--to keep their guys from passing time by slitting throats of the locals (they in turn were scared of Serbs).

Next Big Future did a story years ago about Iran having the best concrete. No laws protecting cinder cones I gather?
 
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Let me first preface this response by saying that I've thought long and hard about whether to reply or just stay silent, since this runs a terrible risk of being very off topic.

EmoBirb said:
That list is indeed very long, but you cannot convince me Israel wouldn't nuke Tehran if push comes to shove. Nuclear balance is a neat way to solve this issue long term. After all neither Washington nor Moscow were nuked in the 20th century? Or New Delhi and Islamabad. Pyongyang and Seoul anyone? You see, if anything a stand off creates an uncomfortable equilibrium where neither side can take measure considered overly drastic. Such destabilizing actions like this operation wouldn't happen, neither would Iran fire ballistics directly at Israel then, as each of these could be considered potentially nuclear.
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The problem here is that all of the examples listed are more or less rational actors who want to continue to live. For people like that MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) works. Where this doesn't work is when you get an actor who actively wants to bring about the apocalypse by killing, fill in your favorite blank people. Let's better illustrate the point with a hypothetical. Let's say a group of radical Christian Nationalist, following Hal Lindsey theology, in the US believed by nuking certain countries thought they could bring about the end times and the kingdom of God, and Gilead just to make all the Handmaidens tale people (un)happy. Most people reading this would be appalled (as would I). As near as I can tell, this is the Iranian regime. They believe if the destroy Israel they can initiate their end times prophecy. That's not rational, and not rational MAD.

Further, the entire history of the Jewish people has been one group after another trying to eliminate them starting with Egypt throwing all the boy babies into the Nile until Hitler with the Holocaust. I'd list the three and a half millennia of instances, but don't want to write a book. They rightfully have the position to say never again.

In Judaism, Christianity and Islam you can only enter into Heaven upon death, with a few prophets and obviously Christ being exceptions to that. I don't think it's worthwhile or even tasteful to try to bring faith into this, tbh.
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Faith really is essential since the three really are very different.

Here's where this gets very tricky. The three are not the same, and the issue at hand is really the assurance of salvation by the three systems, which are very different. The Jew attains his salvation by keeping the Law, at the end all righteous resurrect, at the very end all non-righteous resurrect to judgement. It's all based on how well you follow the rules. The only way the Muslim knows that he is absolutely saved is by dying a martyr. Otherwise, it's all based upon Alllah's assessment of how well you did. The Christian, not everybody dies, every Christian resurrects or is raptured. Assurance, by grace, through faith, not of ourselves, indwelling Holy Spirit provides assurance. Eternal heaven only entered after bodily resurrection.

Two beliefs are almost compatible with one totally incompatible.

The current Iranian regime can never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons, they might actually use them.
 
That may have even been true in Cuba--I remember C-SPAN coverage of a college history course that maintained Che' and Fidel were perfectly willing to get roasted if the ultimate goal were achieved.

I can only hope some in Iran are sleep o'nights tired of religion--just silent.
 
ISTANBUL/BAGHDAD, June 25 (Reuters) - Iranian authorities are pivoting from a ceasefire with Israel to intensify an internal security crackdown across the country with mass arrests, executions and military deployments, particularly in the restive Kurdish region, officials and activists said.

Within days of Israel's airstrikes beginning on June 13, Iranian security forces started a campaign of widespread arrests accompanied by an intensified street presence based around checkpoints, the officials and activists said.

[snip]
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WASHINGTON, June 25 (Reuters) - With his order for B-2 bombers to strike Iranian nuclear sites on Sunday, President Donald Trump swerved away from his usual reluctance to use military force, directly involving the U.S. in a foreign war and alarming many of his "America First" supporters.

Now, the thinking behind his decision has a name, according to Vice President JD Vance: the Trump Doctrine.

Vance laid out the elements in remarks on Tuesday: articulate a clear American interest, try to solve a problem with diplomacy and, if that fails, "use overwhelming military power to solve it and then you get the hell out of there before it ever becomes a protracted conflict."

To some observers, however, the new doctrine sounds like an effort to offer a tidy framework to describe a foreign policy that often looks unpredictable and inconsistent.

"It's hard for me to relate seriously to something called the 'Trump Doctrine,'" said Middle East analyst Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"I don't think Trump has a doctrine. I think Trump has only held instincts."

Trump's decision to get involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran came after Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei said Iran would not give up its ability to enrich uranium. Soon after the U.S. strikes, Trump announced a ceasefire, which has mostly held.

[snip]
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