Operation Midnight Hammer

[bobbymike]

To which their reply would be that the US bombed them despite engaging in talks before these events. Diplomacy is an art, and the people in charge aren't artists, they're not even qualified to be janitors.

I can wholeheartedly see this backfiring in the long term, given Iran's previous reluctance to actually take the necessary steps to gain nuclear weapons, this should have been their final wake up call that they should get to that point ASAP otherwise they'll never be save from antagonistic foreign powers trampling on their sovereignty. One would have thought a look towards Iraq or Ukraine should have made this clear already, but alas.

Coupled with the already surfacing doubts of the overall effectiveness of this attack, some going as far as calling it a tactical success but strategic failure. One cannot help but consider the possibility of this having been a premature and ill motivated show off force of the US with little substance all things considered.

So I'll definitely join the camp of people that isn't particularly impressed. Although from a technical point of view, the B-2 proved once again to be an invaluable asset in the US arsenal and the people that were involved in it's development and are involved in its operational deployment deserve a thumbs up, regardless of anything else. A vastly more impressive display of it's capabilities than launching AGM-158s at insurgents in Yemen.

Report: Khamenei is currently unreachable. Top Iranian officials including former President Hassan Rouhani, MP Ali Larijani, and former Justice Minister Sadeq Larijani are seeking his approval to begin direct talks with the United States but have failed to make contact.

A source told IranWire that only a small group has access to Khamenei. Ali Larijani, from a prominent clerical family, wants to position himself as a future leader after Khamenei, but his authority is weak since Khamenei disqualified him twice from running for president.

 

[EmoBirb]

If Iran attempts to block the straits I can see what's left of their navy being destroyed in short order.

It would be in line with their policies though, IIRC they said that if the US or Israel would attack them, this would be a measure they would consider. On a similar note, they refrained from closing the strait during their war with Iraq out of fear of US intervention. But the US already jumped the gun prematurely, so there is no threat of intervention anymore as the US already intervened, arguably in the strongest way possible outside of deploying troops on the ground (I don't think deploying Hornets from carriers is a more drastic measure than dropping bunker busters from stealth bombers on nuclear facilities, Top Gun might disagree though).

Furthermore, one doesn't need a navy to threaten shipping or blockade shipping lanes, Ukraine and the Houthis demonstrated that well. So Iran could very well blockade or threaten shipping even if their entire navy would be sunk.

The threat of something generally holds more leverage than the act itself does, so I could see them closing the strait, or at least hindering passage to put pressure on the oil markets. What is the US going to do? Bomb them? Lol. Trump will avoid putting boots on the ground like the plague, especially as large portions of his voter base are already dissatisfied with the intervention in the first place, given that he campaigned on the platform of no more foreign wars. And while he himself won't run another time, it will make it harder for a republican successor he will most likely appoint or at least set up to succeed him in the next election.

 

[EmoBirb]

Report: Khamenei is currently unreachable. Top Iranian officials including former President Hassan Rouhani, MP Ali Larijani, and former Justice Minister Sadeq Larijani are seeking his approval to begin direct talks with the United States but have failed to make contact.

A source told IranWire that only a small group has access to Khamenei. Ali Larijani, from a prominent clerical family, wants to position himself as a future leader after Khamenei, but his authority is weak since Khamenei disqualified him twice from running for president.

Which reads as their Supreme leader not being into the idea of talks anymore, tbh

 

[Grey Havoc]

Oil price plunges after Iranian missile strike

Oil prices plunged to the lowest level in a week on Monday night as Iran launched a missile strike on a US military base in Qatar.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Supertankers have performed U-turns in the Strait of Hormuz amid uncertainty over how Iran will retaliate against US strikes on its nuclear sites.

Six of the giant vessels, some capable of carrying 2m barrels of crude, turned back after entering the crucial trade route over the last 24 hours, according to vessel tracking data from MarineTraffic.

Three of the ships – named the Coswisdom Lake, South Loyalty and Damsgaard – eventually made second U-turns and headed through the Strait today.

It comes after Greece’s shipping ministry warned on Sunday that the country’s owners should think twice about using the route.

Meanwhile two large Japanese shipping companies said they will cut exposure to the strait, where a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies pass through.

Oil briefly surged to five-month highs in the first trading session following the US intervention but prices have since steadied.

Analysts have warned the Iran conflict has created a “clear and present risk of energy attacks” that could stoke inflation in the West.

RBC Capital Markets said Iran has a series of options for how it could disrupt the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route, which carries a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.

Analyst Helima Croft said it is not a “full closure or nothing” scenario, adding “multiple security experts contend that Iran has the ability to strike individual tankers and key ports with missiles and mines”.

 

[NMaude]

So Iran could very well blockade or threaten shipping even if their entire navy would be sunk.

Not without a functioning navy and any land-based AShM batteries can easily be attacked and destroyed by air-raids.

What is the US going to do? Bomb them?

Very likely starting with Iran's naval bases and destroying the Kharg Island oil terminal.

Which reads as their Supreme leader not being into the idea of talks anymore, tbh

Possibly, but more likely he's in hiding due to not wanting to be eliminated in an IAF air-raid like quite a few of his senior military officers have been.

 

[Kat Tsun]

Not without a functioning navy and any land-based AShM batteries can easily be attacked and destroyed by air-rai

Sea mines and kamikaze USVs would close it pretty easily.

 

[NMaude]

Sea mines and kamikaze USVs would close it pretty easily.

The former needs to be laid by ships or maybe speedboats (Which is basically what the Iranian navy currently consists of) and while they might have USVs I don't know how good they are, the USN could no doubt consult the Ukrainians on how to deal with USVs. But that's moot if their naval bases are destroyed or at the very least put out of action by air-raids.

 

[Josh_TN]

If Iran attempts to block the straits I can see what's left of their navy being destroyed in short order.

Their navy would not be the primary threat.

 

[Josh_TN]

Sea mines and kamikaze USVs would close it pretty easily.

…or cruise and ballistic missiles much easier. These are the guys who gave Houthi And The Blowfish their toys.

 

[Josh_TN]

The former needs to be laid by ships or maybe speedboats (Which is basically what the Iranian navy currently consists of) and while they might have USVs I don't know how good they are, the USN could no doubt consult the Ukrainians on how to deal with USVs. But that's moot if their naval bases are destroyed or at the very least put out of action by air-raids.

Mine laying would probably be difficult. There is a small fleet of midget submarines, along with three kilos thought to be in a bad state of repair at this point.

 

[Josh_TN]

Which reads as their Supreme leader not being into the idea of talks anymore, tbh

Or not wanting his position to be advertised to the IAF.

 

[Josh_TN]

Not without a functioning navy and any land-based AShM batteries can easily be attacked and destroyed by air-raids.

The Houthi were never fully neutralized; eventually they agreed to only attack Israel and the U.S. relented.

 

[Kat Tsun]

The former needs to be laid by ships or maybe speedboats (Which is basically what the Iranian navy currently consists of) and while they might have USVs I don't know how good they are, the USN could no doubt consult the Ukrainians on how to deal with USVs. But that's moot if their naval bases are destroyed or at the very least put out of action by air-raids.

The Ukrainians have essentially zero naval bases and have been able to conduct harassment campaigns regardless.

Most USVs in 2023 got launched from beaches. If you're doing a Houthi thing, and just making shipping sad, sea mines deployed in shallow zones and submersible USVs would be a nightmare for CENTCOM. MCM and surface escort are the areas where USN is exceptionally weak these days.

…or cruise and ballistic missiles much easier. These are the guys who gave Houthi And The Blowfish their toys.

Cruise and ballistic missiles are likely not viable for a sustained closure tbf.

Sea mines and kamikazes would be. Whether that's practical given the current state of two CVBGs sitting off the coast is another question, but most of the strait is vulnerable to mines given how shallow it is, so there's that. It's the only real pathway to seriously threatening shipping Iran would have, though. The launchers would just be destroyed by roving Hornets.

 

[EmoBirb]

Not without a functioning navy and any land-based AShM batteries can easily be attacked and destroyed by air-raids.

Because that worked so well in Yemen and Ukraine.

Iran as a symmetrical threat isn't the same as Iran as an asymmetrical threat. Conventionally they were always outmatched, they themselves were obviously aware of this. But with regards to asymmetrical warfare we're talking about very smart, very crafty people who invested a lot into UAVs, loitering munitions, missiles, mines, USVs and similar systems, like for example more mobile and manportable anti-aircraft systems. They are the people who supplied the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas with all sorts of equipment and asymmetrical planning to pressure and hurt their adversaries. They're the guys that gave Russia the Shahed, which was developed into Geranium which is pummeling Ukraine every other night and day in the dozens if not occasionally hundreds to serve as munitions and decoys.

I somehow doubt that the US or even Israel to be honest want to engage Iran on an asymmetrical footing. It's like a fusion of Afghanistan, Yemen and Lebanon but turned up to eleven. Conventional weakness doesn't mean a threat doesn't exist. As has been proven virtually every decade in recent history by various countries.

 

[southwestforests]

particularly driven by base economic activity.

That brings to mind history for which I'll take a bit of a tangent to the overall topic, when Dad was in USN during cold war and the Navy moved its Atlantic Fleet destroyer squadrons out of Newport, Rhode Island.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1977/03/27/rhode-island-4-years-later-pullout-still-hurts/73d45f3b-1a1e-422e-9836-373923d36442/

Rhode Island 4 Years Later: Pullout Still Hurts
Rhode Island Still Trying to Overcome Big Cuts in Employment
March 26, 1977

Meanwhile, according to Garrahy and a dozen economists, bankers and state officials interviewed, Rhode Island continues to suffer from the debilitation effects of the base closures.

After the base closings, the statewide unemployment rate soared from about 6 per cent to 18.2 per cent, rising to more than 30 per cent in some towns.

Coupled with the economic impact of the Middle East oil embargo and the national recession, the loss of the Navy's $344 million annual payroll caused an immediate 6 per cent loss in the gross state product. Rhode Island, which trailed the average national per capita income by only $9 in 1972, fell $138 behind two years later. In one year, small-business income dropped by 25 per cent in the Newport area and by 15 per cent in the Quonset Point area.

Restaurants and bars on Sailor's Row in Newport folded almost immediately and, as the Navy withdraw its forces rapidly over the first year, hundreds of rental its forces rapidly over the first yearTNational chain retailers which had announced plans for new outlets suddenly withdrew, leaving shopping center developers with big parking lots and little else.

Teacher employment plummeted, and several towns found themselves with empty schools and bond issues they will be paying off for years.

And then when we were in Virginia Beach early 1980s, some in the city, I think even some local media and some City Council members, got it in their heads to say publicly that the city did not need military people.
Military people and their families kind of looked at each other and went, Oh? Really? Ya don't say?
In the most amazing coincidence of timing there was a sudden acute shortage of substitute teachers, of little league coaches, and many other people shortages in community and business.
And in an even more amazing coincidence of timing, imagine that, two amazing coincidences in a row, the community tune about military people suddenly reversed course.

 

[phantomphan]

Iran launches missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq

Iranian missile barrage strikes Israel after deadline Trump announced for ceasefire passes

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire” soon after Iran launched a limited missile attack Monday on a U.S. military base in Qatar, retaliating for the American bombing of its nuclear sites.

apnews.com

 

[Sferrin]

Iran launches missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq

Iranian missile barrage strikes Israel after deadline Trump announced for ceasefire passes

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire” soon after Iran launched a limited missile attack Monday on a U.S. military base in Qatar, retaliating for the American bombing of its nuclear sites.

apnews.com

Token.

 

[bobbymike]

Apparently although rumor and speculation China tells Iran don’t mess with shipping in the SoH

 

[Sferrin]

Apparently although rumor and speculation China tells Iran don’t mess with shipping in the SoH

Well yeah. It would hurt them the most.

 

[Josh_TN]

Token.

I suspect damage is not grave, since anything that could fly left three days ago (IMO the best indicator that the U.S. would bomb Iran that few seemed to comment on). But dropping missiles on CENTCOM clearly is not a yawn situation either.

 

[Josh_TN]

Well yeah. It would hurt them the most.

This is true; Asian in general and China in particular would be hardest hit. I think it would have been better for the administration to not mention anything and just let China’s natural interests take over; who ever runs Iran is always going to sell oil to China. The only thing that really hurts the PRC is if the flow of GCC oil stops.

 

[SOC]

But dropping missiles on CENTCOM clearly is not a yawn situation either.

It was in January 2020.

 

[Hydroman]

If Iran attempts to block the straits I can see what's left of their navy being destroyed in short order.

Iran's navy will be obliterated for sure. I would think the Iranian people would like to go back to their way of life during the Shah's regime but I could be wrong?

 

[EmoBirb]

Iran's navy will be obliterated for sure. I would think the Iranian people would like to go back to their way of life during the Shah's regime but I could be wrong?

The Shah was overthrown by the Iranian people. Something called the Iranian (or Islamic) Revolution happened, as the Iranians thought the Shah was a pretty shitty ruler. So Islamic, Democratic and Socialist movements joined together to overthrow the Shah and the Islamic faction ultimately superseded the other two and took power for themselves. If anything, it's on the Iranians to force change if they consider it necessary by the means of a new, presumably democratic, nationalist or socialist revolution. Neither of these orientations in Iranian politics are looking favorable at Israel though, especially the nationalists and socialists. Who view them as an existential threat, an enemy of the people and in case of the latter a (and I'm going to quote sentiment of socialists in the middle east for context here) an "imperialistic apartheid state".

So even if the Islamic Republic would be replaced by a Socialist Republic or nationalistic Iran, the foreign policies and goals wouldn't change. And the latter remains true throughout any shape of this discussion. Every attack on Iran simply reinforces the idea that only strategic weapons will safeguard Iran and it's people against hostile foreign powers who pose an existential threat to them. There are only two ways to solve this long term, either via diplomatic means, or by Iran gaining a nuclear deterrent to scare off the Americans and Israelis.

Edit: toned it down a bit

 

[Josh_TN]

It was in January 2020.

You are confusing Al-Assad in Iraq with CENTCOMs home base in Qatar.

But yes, a hundred U.S. servicemen were brain damaged and the only reason that situation did not get worse is no one promptly died.

 

[Josh_TN]

Iran's navy will be obliterated for sure. I would think the Iranian people would like to go back to their way of life during the Shah's regime but I could be wrong?

The Shah was not popular AT ALL; that is why the revolution happened. Obviously the result was sub optimal and more over the average Iranian can not remember anything about the Shah. But there is no desire to resurrect that government.

 

[BAROBA]

"Cruise and ballistic missiles are likely not viable for a sustained closure tbf."
You only need to hit one ship, the rest of them are not even going to try to get through.
The fear of being hit by any missile is a far greater motivator then actually being hit.
Nobody wants to be on the worlds slowest moving target that can explode in a big fireball...

 

[martinbayer]

Iran's navy will be obliterated for sure. I would think the Iranian people would like to go back to their way of life during the Shah's regime but I could be wrong?

Try Mosaddegh, for those old enough to remember.

 

[yeetmahboi]

Try Mosaddegh, for those old enough to remember.

Mosaddegh was only better than the Shah in the sense that he was at the very least better, though. The two faded out the same way: dissidents get oodles of cash and arms from the States... and dismantle the old regime.

Poor little Iran. Turkey remains the prime example of a successful neutral nation. Her politics I shall not discuss.

 

[quellish]

Iran launches missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq

Iranian missile barrage strikes Israel after deadline Trump announced for ceasefire passes

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire” soon after Iran launched a limited missile attack Monday on a U.S. military base in Qatar, retaliating for the American bombing of its nuclear sites.

apnews.com

Launching missiles to de-escalate…. Um, OK?

 

[publiusr]

So how long will it be until tankers have CIWS?

I seem to remember images of centrifuges being rather tall and then--easier to spread out.

Conveyor belts between them an easy fix?

 

[Seragina]

So how long will it be until tankers have CIWS?

Like never.
This is already a grey area even for naval hospital ships about whether they are considered armed or not, hence, legit target or not.

 

[Dilandu]

So even if the Islamic Republic would be replaced by a Socialist Republic or nationalistic Iran, the foreign policies and goals wouldn't change.

Actually, they probably would. Nationalists would not be much interested in supporting the Palestineans (who aren't even close to Iranians in any way), and would likely concentrate on opposing Saudi Arabia for the influence in Yemen and Turkey for the influence in Syria. Neither of those goal require conflict with Israel. So while they obviously would be claiming animosity toward Israel for a long time, they probably would not be interested in actually doing anything against Israel.

 

[Dilandu]

Like never.
This is already a grey area even for naval hospital ships about whether they are considered armed or not, hence, legit target or not.

On the other hand, they could carry soft-kill defenses (ECM's aren't considered "weapons"). And some hard-kill defenses - like FPV-drone, programmed to ram enemy drones or missiles but without any kind of warhead - could be reasonably claimed not to be weapons at all.

 

[EmoBirb]

Actually, they probably would. Nationalists would not be much interested in supporting the Palestineans (who aren't even close to Iranians in any way), and would likely concentrate on opposing Saudi Arabia for the influence in Yemen and Turkey for the influence in Syria. Neither of those goal require conflict with Israel. So while they obviously would be claiming animosity toward Israel for a long time, they probably would not be interested in actually doing anything against Israel.

Israel is also opposing Iran and others in Yemen and Syria. Not to mention the decades of hostilities between the two and all the Iranians killed and assassinated. Iranian nationalists have no love for them.

 

[Foo Fighter]

I must confess that the two week 'thing' never came across as genuine. Smoke and mirroes of the most basic kind.

Thing is, The US is now locked into having to strike again, finding and striking that removed enriched product is a serious 'must go to' target.

I know, fiction but, "Clear and present danger". If a film team can come up with that scenario why not a terrorist state?

Essentially, if the US does not strike again it WILL come back to bite them, the crazies will guarantee it.

Why do so called civilised societies continue to fowl up by allowing the repercusions to come?

Where WILL the dirty bombs be placed?...........

Decapitate the regime or face it again in as little as a few months.

 

[Josh_TN]

Israel is also opposing Iran and others in Yemen and Syria. Not to mention the decades of hostilities between the two and all the Iranians killed and assassinated. Iranian nationalists have no love for them.

Indeed, but that is mostly the Iranians manufacturing a conflict with them. They don’t share a border. There was never a rational reason for there to be a conflict in the first place.

I expect any Iranian in the street to hate Israel for this war but also not to really do much about it, given the chance. But the current regime will keep making it a priority.

 

[Seragina]

On the other hand, they could carry soft-kill defenses (ECM's aren't considered "weapons"). And some hard-kill defenses - like FPV-drone, programmed to ram enemy drones or missiles but without any kind of warhead - could be reasonably claimed not to be weapons at all.

I'm on ECM but obviously it's not that straight forward for civil shipping. They have been mulling forever whether to have armed guards or not against pirates. In the end most only accepted using water hoses as defense.
Money and insurrance (to have these) is likely the bigger issue for them.

 

[Josh_TN]

This will either be a direct military conflict between the U.S. and Iran or it will be nothing. No need to worry about the inbetween.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Also wouldn't the sudden loss of electrical power if the facilities electrical substation is destroyed cause an uncontrolled shutdown of the centrifuges damaging and/or destroying them?

I would not expect so.

UF6 is only a gas above 60degC? The entire centrifuge cascade is an enormous thermal mass that will remain at or above 60degC for hours and hours.

The only possibility would be some voltage transient that made its way from the arcing substation through the controllers and into the motors.

Sea mines and kamikaze USVs would close [the Straits of Hormuz] pretty easily.

Iran tried that in the 1980s.

It didn't work so well.