Israel strikes on Iran

Status
Not open for further replies.
TSRJoe and Forrest Green -

Howdy !

Gentlemen…I only now have taken note of red circled arrows at the top of the comments box. While I had not noticed these in the past, it appears they are intended to draw repeat attention to comments/links you have posted on the “ Israel Strikes Iran “ post.
More specifically, these were included for my edification. If I missed that distinction,
I apologize that did not pick up on that !

Please be assured, my previous comments were not intended imply that the U.S. Navy did not make a grave mistake in the shoot down of the Iranian airliner. Moreover, U.S.
“ compensation “ paid to Iran because of the incident, did not “ gloss things over “.

I will opine that a contributing factor to the USS Stark attack was Iran’s belligerence and attacks on oil tankers during the “ Tanker War “; IRAQ making the attack on the Stark notwithstanding. The USS Stark was present to provide protective escort to tankers in-opposition to Iran’s irresponsible actions against them. The 37 U.S. sailors died as a result of the attack in the Stark.

Today, amid other mischief; Iran is hurtling towards the 46th anniversary of ” Hostage Crisis “. Every day they more closely approach their “ day of reckoning “ ( IMHO ).


With regards,
357Mag
 
357Mag said:
As regards any postulated U.S. use of a notional “ conventional” armed ICBM or SLBM on Iranian nuclear facilities…

Those who the U.S. would not want to potentially alarm, would need to be prior-informed of any impending launch(es), and the intended terminus of the trajectory.
This is not an unknown practice.

This is not as sensational idea as it may sound. Even for attacks using aircraft and cruise missiles, Iranian airspace defenses would first be neutralized, which is something
the Israelis recently demonstrated. If Iran were to some how cobble together any form of ABM defense, the U.S. and/or Israelis would also take these out prior to attacking the nuclear sites.

Given that Iran’s deep underground nuclear facilities cannot reasonably be further hardened on short notice, Iran would be left to watch the attacks unfold.
Click to expand...
Right, there's ways to set something up for a deliberate attack on Iran or North Korea. (What you described is the standard process for doing test launches, BTW.)

The problem is that this only works for deliberate attacks on what might as well be a non-resisting target.

You can't make a general policy of loading some ICBMs or SLBMs in the field with conventional warheads and the rest with nukes, and then use the conventional warheads on one of the Nuclear powers that can strike the US.
 
The Stratolaunch Roc would need air support—but I could see a one-off bomb dropped on Fordow.
 
Scott Kenny said:
Right, there's ways to set something up for a deliberate attack on Iran or North Korea. (What you described is the standard process for doing test launches, BTW.)

The problem is that this only works for deliberate attacks on what might as well be a non-resisting target.

You can't make a general policy of loading some ICBMs or SLBMs in the field with conventional warheads and the rest with nukes, and then use the conventional warheads on one of the Nuclear powers that can strike the US.
Click to expand...

Scott -

Howdy ! Always nice to hear from you.

As regards your final paragraph, above…

IF, and I say IF the U.S. did put conventional warheads on a special-use clutch of ICBMs
( example ); I should imagine their use would be laid out in some specific guidance; and not some “ general policy “.

And of course as is widely thought, Iran is not ( yet ) a “ nuclear power “.
Preventing that from happening would certainly be one postulated mission for a notional U.S. convention warhead ICBM. However, in today’s reality, breaching Iran’s deeply buried sites is
the MOP’s raison d’etre; N’est-ce pas ?
 
And such use would pretty much amount to a declaration of war by the US. something I'd hope even they (or its proxies) would not be stupid enough to do against another sovereign state no matter how much 'under threat' the hawks on the hill felt

On that note il get back to researching 'secret projects'
 
TsrJoe said:
And such use would pretty much amount to a declaration of war by the US. something I'd hope even they (or its proxies) would not be stupid enough to do against another sovereign state no matter how much 'under threat' the hawks on the hill felt

On that note il get back to researching 'secret projects'
Click to expand...
TSRJoe -

Thanx Joe. You have been providing some great information !


With regards,
357Mag
 
TsrJoe said:
And such use would pretty much amount to a declaration of war by the US. something I'd hope even they (or its proxies) would not be stupid enough to do against another sovereign state no matter how much 'under threat' the hawks on the hill felt
Click to expand...
There's no telling what the next administration will be stupid enough to do.
 
Last edited:
All -

Not hard to list the many negatives that would be associated with a pre-emptive attack on Iran.

None the less, for Israel…. certain exigencies prevail.


With regards,
357Mag
 
357Mag said:
All -

Not hard to list the many negatives that would be associated with a pre-emptive attack on Iran.

None the less, for Israel…. certain exigencies prevail.


With regards,
357Mag
Click to expand...
If we are to assume that Iran's deterrence was generally based on the next pillars, in order of significance:
  1. Hezbollah, Hamas and other proxies forming a ring of fire around Israel.
    1. And Israel's retaliation strongly affecting US calculus in real time.
  2. Denial of trade in the
    1. Strait - Iran.
    2. Red Sea - Houthis.
    3. East Med - Hezbollah+Syria.
  3. Iran's own arsenal.
Then we can see that Iran has exhausted much of its retaliatory capacity.

Netanyahu is widely considered to be dovish - a strong believer in containment and appeasement. In no rush to pre-empt any threat. However in 2021-2022, during Israel's political crisis and elections spiral, Israel elected a government led by 2 prime ministers - Bennet and Lapid. Bennet is considered a defense hawk.
Current government performance led to a general consensus that Bennet and Lapid will return in January 2027. This means that during Trump's current term, he may face an Israeli administration that will be more volatile for the US's calculus.
Combine this with a general Israeli (population) desire to pre-empt threats, and the much lower effect of Iran's retaliatory options on Israel, and Trump may have little time to push for a truly independent policy.

I wouldn't bet on Israel not striking Iran again in Q2 of 2025. Not only has it reportedly dealt with much of Iran's ABM capability, but HTS's rise in Syria and Israel's following strikes against the SAA's former assets - have paved a direct aerial corridor between Israel and Iran, allowing replacing the heavy Golden Horizon munitions with a higher volume of lighter munitions, which in turn means more tonnage delivered.
It would be smart for the US to take into consideration this sense of urgency and this opportunity, and I'm feeling the dynamics between the Netanyahu-Trump administrations will be more fluid than Netanyahu-Biden.

We have seen, after all, how much hyped militaries like Hezbollah, can fall quickly.
 
Justo Miranda said:
The anti-bunker weapons did not defeat the Taliban and only cause damage that can be repaired over time. What Israel needs is a permanent solution and in my opinion this can only be achieved with a peace like the one achieved with the Egyptians or with a technological superiority capable of destroying any present or future electronic system of its adversary... Goldeneye???

Perhaps a combination of the two with as few civilian casualties as possible would be the most acceptable solution for Western interests.
Click to expand...
The only solution is for Israel to focus on locally made weapons. Israel military mode must now be that of quantity.
Israel must now have thousands of ballistic missiles more than Iran.
Imagine one F jet costing $90, that's insane!
With that same amount of money Iran do make dozens of ballistic missiles.
If Israel has a public fleet of over 7K+ ballistic missiles not even Hamas or houthis would mess with Israel.
 
KAU777 said:
The only solution is for Israel to focus on locally made weapons. Israel military mode must now be that of quantity.
Israel must now have thousands of ballistic missiles more than Iran.
Imagine one F jet costing $90, that's insane!
With that same amount of money Iran do make dozens of ballistic missiles.
If Israel has a public fleet of over 7K+ ballistic missiles not even Hamas or houthis would mess with Israel.
Click to expand...
1. Israel already has by far the strongest ballistic missile force in the entire middle east, including Iran's.

2. This didn't deter Hamas or the Houthis nonetheless.

3. 7k munitions would barely scratch an enemy like Hamas, not to mention they wouldn't even be applicable for an enemy so close, above which Israeli aircraft fly with no resistance.
 
KAU777 said:
The only solution is for Israel to focus on locally made weapons. Israel military mode must now be that of quantity.
Israel must now have thousands of ballistic missiles more than Iran.
Imagine one F jet costing $90, that's insane!
With that same amount of money Iran do make dozens of ballistic missiles.
If Israel has a public fleet of over 7K+ ballistic missiles not even Hamas or houthis would mess with Israel.
Click to expand...
Not even nuclear weapons deter actors who believe that dying is a good thing.
 
Concentrated strike areas.
These include a large array of targets, including Iran's most capable ballistic missile sites, at the closest range to Israel (1,100km).
Aside from assassinations in Tehran, it is not clear what damage was done to UGFs which include nuclear infrastructure and ballistic missile sites.
1749803248526.png

Ballistic missiles prepared to launch at Israel were also struck
1749803414222.png

And air defense assets. Below is 3rd of Khordad.
1749803509571.png

Although possible that the footage is old, we see here F-16s loaded with SDBs, and in other published images also F-15s with JDAMs. This shows IAF was able to get close and personal, and not be limited to ALBMs as those used in the October 2024 strike.
The assassinations at least showed damage consistent with light weapons like the SDB or equivalents (Spice 250 / ER)
1749803630014.png


Iran has reportedly responded with ~100 attack drones. All were intercepted.

Excerpts from IDF statements:
8:01 AM
At night, more than 200 fighter aircraft... attacked more than 100 targets across Iran, including hiding spots of senior members of Iran's military command.

In these attacks, 3 of the Iranian regime's top military commanders were eliminated:
Chief of Staff of Iran's armed forces: Mohammed Hossein Bakri.
Commander of the IRGC: Hossein Salami
Commander of Emergency Command: Khatem Gholam Ali Rashid
Click to expand...

10:24 AM
IDF has completed extensive strikes on Iran's aerial defenses in western Iran.
Tens of radar sites and SAM launchers were destroyed.
Click to expand...

Although the IDF reported only 3 deaths, many more are claimed by Iranians on the ground. I believe the IDF only releases those it can confirm are dead.

IDF also used previously unknown designations for Iranian systems, to avoid trying to understand where on a scale of 1-15 the Khordad is.
1749805219258.png
 
Last edited:
Justo Miranda said:
I don't doubt the effectiveness of the Popeye missiles and their 340 kg warheads, but the damage to buildings I've seen in the news videos seems to be done by smaller warheads, maybe some kind of drones.
Click to expand...
Many more targets have been struck than what was recorded visually. Not all military sites are close enough to civilian population to get a proper recording, and at night you wouldn't see the smoke plumes you've seen in the well lit Tehran.
 
 
Justo Miranda said:
I don't doubt the effectiveness of the Popeye missiles and their 340 kg warheads, but the damage to buildings I've seen in the news videos seems to be done by smaller warheads, maybe some kind of drones.
Click to expand...
Apparently, IDF claimed that inside-the-perimeter attack - involved launching drones from secret base, established within Iran - was part of the strike.
 
Mr.T said:
Like always Israel pushes US into another war , like all the wars since 9/11 with exception of Afghanistan.
Israel has no capacity to wage let alone win a war with iran , but knows US politicians on tape with underage kids is all the capacity they need.
ICE needs to clean up DC
Click to expand...
I remember when the media said that Gaza was impregnable with its kilometers of tunnels, then they said that Hezbollah's army was much better equipped than Hamas's, now they say that Iran cannot be defeated, due to Israel's lack of military capacity... who knows what capabilities Israel has?

All of Trump's enemies would like a US-Iran war, a new Vietnam so that everything can start again, but that is not going to happen, if necessary, Trump will send Israel all the sophisticated weaponry necessary to avoid having to intervene.
 
Mr.T said:
Like always Israel pushes US into another war , like all the wars since 9/11 with exception of Afghanistan.
Israel has no capacity to wage let alone win a war with iran , but knows US politicians on tape with underage kids is all the capacity they need.
ICE needs to clean up DC
Click to expand...
Iran has been directly attacking Israel since April of 2024.

When has the US directly attacked Iran? Ah, 1988. 36 years ago.
 
Dilandu said:
Apparently, IDF claimed that inside-the-perimeter attack - involved launching drones from secret base, established within Iran - was part of the strike.
Click to expand...
That makes a lot of sense, but it is not necessary to launch from inside Iran, I am thinking of an oil tanker.
 
Israel MoD Katz:
"The majority of IRGC's air force has been eliminated while gathering in an underground command center."

There are also reports of heavy Mossad involvement, including operators on the ground.

SDB?
1749805492305.png

Natanz strike
1749805953641.png
 
Last edited:
From what we know so far, Israel is being very careful to avoid casualties among the Iranian civilian population, the attacks on the buildings where scientists and politicians supposedly lived have been of absolute precision and carried out with explosive charges of very controlled power.

I am not trying to say that Israel is particularly sensitive, but perhaps this is the indicator of a medium-term political plan to bring about the fall of the regime.
 
Justo Miranda said:
From what we know so far, Israel is being very careful to avoid casualties among the Iranian civilian population, the attacks on the buildings where scientists and politicians supposedly lived have been of absolute precision and carried out with explosive charges of very controlled power.

I am not trying to say that Israel is particularly sensitive, but perhaps this is the indicator of a medium-term political plan to bring about the fall of the regime.
Click to expand...
That's just the MO. There is never really a point in targeting civilians. Waste of ammunition, waste of day-after potential and many other drawbacks.

Gaza seems to stand out to many people because there's a lot of effort done by Hamas to shield themselves behind civilians. Plus a LOT of regular executions were just attributed to Israel for no reason.
 
5 strike waves in Iran:
  1. Opening - IRGC senior command.
  2. Nuclear scientists.
  3. Natanz enrichment site and air defenses in Tehran.
  4. Air defenses in western Iran and ballistic missiles.
  5. Same as 4th.
 
Mossad has released footage from the ground in Iran.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1933454339395260848

In the footage we see strikes on a 3rd Khordad SAM, an unknown target, and a ballistic missile.

@Justo Miranda @Dilandu Iran's primary assets against Israel, including ballistic missiles, are located in north-western Iran. This is a mountainous region (as is much of Iran) and bordering Israel-friendly Azerbaijan.
Entering through Azerbaijan, past mountains, and setting up in Iran, would have been far easier than any alternative if the goal is ground presence. I also mentioned this vulnerability many times in the context of Israel's options vs Iran.

1749806572308.png
1749806536610.png
 
Last edited:
Justo Miranda said:
That makes a lot of sense, but it is not necessary to launch from inside Iran, I am thinking of an oil tanker.
Click to expand...
Well, its what IDF claimed - that they established a secret base within Iran (which isn't impossbile, considering that a significant part of country is low-populated and have rugged terrain) and launched attack drones from there to strike Iranian mobile launchers.
 
Big_Zukini said:
That's just the MO. There is never really a point in targeting civilians. Waste of ammunition, waste of day-after potential and many other drawbacks.

Gaza seems to stand out to many people because there's a lot of effort done by Hamas to shield themselves behind civilians. Plus a LOT of regular executions were just attributed to Israel for no reason.
Click to expand...
I lack the moral authority to judge the combat tactics used in Gaza, but I don't think I'm offending anyone by pointing out that while Israeli civilians take cover in bunkers, the Israeli army fights on the surface. On the other side the situation is the reverse, but it is also fair to recognize that Hamas was democratically elected by the Palestinian people and its governing tactics have long been generally accepted.

In my language we have a proverb: "Scabies with taste does not itch"

It is not my war, but I am interested in the lessons that come from it.
 
Dilandu said:
Well, its what IDF claimed - that they established a secret base within Iran (which isn't impossbile, considering that a significant part of country is low-populated and have rugged terrain) and launched attack drones from there to strike Iranian mobile launchers.
Click to expand...

Somewhat, like Ukraine did with Spider Web... it's drones inside containers or prefabricated houses. Not surprised Israel is making similar, smart moves. Or even smarter.
 
Justo Miranda said:
I lack the moral authority to judge the combat tactics used in Gaza, but I don't think I'm offending anyone by pointing out that while Israeli civilians take cover in bunkers, the Israeli army fights on the surface. On the other side the situation is the reverse, but it is also fair to recognize that Hamas was democratically elected by the Palestinian people and its governing tactics have long been generally accepted.

In my language we have a proverb: "Scabies with taste does not itch"

It is not my war, but I am interested in the lessons that come from it.
Click to expand...
We're not gonna start doing collective punishment just because they elected Hamas. We adhere to LOAC because it's not only moral, but also because it's very beneficial.
By gaining public trust we can allow them to separate from Hamas, making it easier to hunt Hamas's remaining terrorists, and to convince them to cooperate on new initiatives, for example the recent security detail of local armed Palestinians, helping to secure GHF aid distribution facilities against Hamas.

Archibald said:
Somewhat, like Ukraine did with Spider Web... it's drones inside containers or prefabricated houses. Not surprised Israel is making similar, smart moves. Or even smarter.
Click to expand...
It is highly likely that at least some of the footage shows Spike missiles.
The footage showing a ballistic missile could definitely be some type of drone though.
 
Justo Miranda said:
I lack the moral authority to judge the combat tactics used in Gaza, but I don't think I'm offending anyone by pointing out that while Israeli civilians take cover in bunkers, the Israeli army fights on the surface. On the other side the situation is the reverse, but it is also fair to recognize that Hamas was democratically elected by the Palestinian people and its governing tactics have long been generally accepted.

In my language we have a proverb: "Scabies with taste does not itch"

It is not my war, but I am interested in the lessons that come from it.
Click to expand...

Well here's what bothers me, for what it's worth.

Israel went to Gaza with three objectives : smash Hamas, avenge October 7, recover the hostages. I'm mostly ok with that, after all French Rafales bombed the shit out of E.I after terrorism killed a total of 273 french citizens over a decade (2012 to 2021).

What really pisses me: Netanyahou and his cliques of fanatical SOBs (burn in hell forever with Meir Kahane, Smotrich and Ben'gvir rotten piece of shit).
Together the miserable SOBs have shifted the Gaza war initial objective, see above, to two new ones

1-keep the war going, keep the government going : so that PM Netanyahou, deeply corrupt, won't go to jail;

2-let's solve the Palestinian "problem" once and for all. Either kill them (65 000 so far) or just move them away from the strip, with Trump blessing ("How about dumping them on Lybia ? weak, corrupt failed state - give them enough billion dollars, they will take those pesky palestinians")
Check this. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/na...-move-1-million-palestinians-libya-rcna207224
Don't you think Netanyahou feels emboldened, reading that ? He must be wetting his pants in joy ! He has POTUS blessing to deport palestinians away.

Also : 1- is not only immoral because palestinians, but for israeli citizens too. It's a freakkin' betrayal. I mean, IDF soldiers keep dying or getting PTSD en masse, just to keep Bibi away from justice and a prison cell. Just think about it.

Oh, well... that post will probably get nuked, for good reasons.
 
Last edited:
Dilandu said:
Well, its what IDF claimed - that they established a secret base within Iran (which isn't impossbile, considering that a significant part of country is low-populated and have rugged terrain) and launched attack drones from there to strike Iranian mobile launchers.
Click to expand...


I suppose that the possible existence of a secret Mossad base on Iranian territory is a maddening idea for the regime's internal security services and good war propaganda to force the enemy to discredit itself by uselessly spending resources, but no one in Israel has forgotten Carter's stupid idea in 1980.

In my opinion, the Israelis most likely withdrew most of their intelligence personnel from Iran before the attack. Perhaps they have only left a few observers to confirm the accuracy of the impacts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Eagle_Claw
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Back
Top Bottom