Ukraine War - News Only Topic

[Flyaway]

This decision over whether to supply Ukraine with Grey Eagle is apparently no further forward than it was in June.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/...gray-eagle-drone-transfer-to-ukraine-00050573

 

[Flyaway]

The latest update on this saga.

Seventeen members of Congress told U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to speed up a Pentagon security review of a Ukrainian request for large armable drones, according to a letter dated Wednesday and seen by Reuters.

"Thorough risk assessments mitigation should not come at the expense of Ukrainian lives," said the letter dated Wednesday and signed by a bipartisan congressional group urging that the Pentagon's review of whether it can transfer the weapons end in a "timely manner."

The letter, which was signed by Republicans and Democrats, referenced the recent territorial gains by Ukraine, adding "employing more capable Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) on the battlefield will allow the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) to better hold the territory they fought so hard to reclaim".

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...speed-review-large-drones-ukraine-2022-09-22/

 

[Flyaway]

And so the never ending saga of supplying the Ukrainians with the Grey Eagle drone continues. By the time the US actually delivers these the war could be over.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/14/politics/us-ukraine-military-drones-gray-eagle/index.html

 

[Flyaway]

Long form article on exactly why the Grey Eagle sale is stuck in a hole.

Mary Ellen O’Connell, an international law professor at the University of Notre Dame, said the Pentagon’s stance on the risks to its technology is “yet another indication of U.S. foreign and security policy stuck in Cold War thinking. It’s also another example of post-Cold War disinterest in international law.” The U.S. “advantage or edge in military might and weapons technology depends on staying ahead of competitors. That never happens,” she added. “China has a far larger standing military. Every military now has drones. The Russians will get the MQ-1C technology whether the U.S. provides it to Ukraine or not. Weapons technology does not remain secret — it just fuels arms races.” China recently exhibited its new Wing Loong-3 drone, which it is marketing as a competitor to the Gray Eagle. State media outlets in China have reported that the drone can carry up to 16 missiles and other munitions. The U.S. drone industry has lamented what some analysts charge is a de facto U.S. policy of cedingthe export market to China, Turkey, and other drone merchants.

https://theintercept.com/2022/11/18/ukraine-drones-biden/

 

[starviking]

News coming out of PM Rishi Sunak’s visit to Ukraine suggests about 120 British AD guns being sent to counter Russian aerial threats.

Big question in my mind: Does the UK have AD guns in any significant number? I thought we ditched the Bofors in the 70’s and went with Rapier and Blowpipe.

 

[TomS]

News coming out of PM Rishi Sunak’s visit to Ukraine suggests about 120 British AD guns being sent to counter Russian aerial threats.

Big question in my mind: Does the UK have AD guns in any significant number? I thought we ditched the Bofors in the 70’s and went with Rapier and Blowpipe.

These will have to be something new, not ex-UK Armed Forces weapons, unless the found a bunch of 40mm Bofors in storage or some such.

Given the drone reference, my guess would be they are funding acquisition of some M230LF guns or something similar.

 

[starviking]

News coming out of PM Rishi Sunak’s visit to Ukraine suggests about 120 British AD guns being sent to counter Russian aerial threats.

Big question in my mind: Does the UK have AD guns in any significant number? I thought we ditched the Bofors in the 70’s and went with Rapier and Blowpipe.

These will have to be something new, not ex-UK Armed Forces weapons, unless the found a bunch of 40mm Bofors in storage or some such.

Given the drone reference, my guess would be they are funding acquisition of some M230LF guns or something similar.

If they are doing that, then the guns would really need to be available right now. Do any NATO forces have such guns in AD setups available.

To be honest, I was hoping that decommed Rapier units would be going to Ukraine, but I also realize that there’d be significant training, maintenance and even refurbishment issues.

 

[TomS]

News coming out of PM Rishi Sunak’s visit to Ukraine suggests about 120 British AD guns being sent to counter Russian aerial threats.

Big question in my mind: Does the UK have AD guns in any significant number? I thought we ditched the Bofors in the 70’s and went with Rapier and Blowpipe.

These will have to be something new, not ex-UK Armed Forces weapons, unless the found a bunch of 40mm Bofors in storage or some such.

Given the drone reference, my guess would be they are funding acquisition of some M230LF guns or something similar.

If they are doing that, then the guns would really need to be available right now. Do any NATO forces have such guns in AD setups available.

To be honest, I was hoping that decommed Rapier units would be going to Ukraine, but I also realize that there’d be significant training, maintenance and even refurbishment issues.

Sunak's statement does specifically say guns. I'd assume this is something that has been in the works for a while and may not be delivered for a couple of months.

 

[donnage99]

If they are doing that, then the guns would really need to be available right now. Do any NATO forces have such guns in AD setups available.

To be honest, I was hoping that decommed Rapier units would be going to Ukraine, but I also realize that there’d be significant training, maintenance and even refurbishment issues.

All rapier units have been destroyed. absolute short sightedness.

 

[CJGibson]

Whatever happened to those truck-mounted Vulcans that protected bases in Afghanistan? Or did I imagine that?

How many AA guns did HM forces bring back from the Falklands. I wonder if they've been kept in grease for 40 years.

Chris

 

[TomS]

The Centurion C-RAM units from Iraq are apparently out of service. I suspect they went back to the US Army.

It could be they have been acquiring surplus Oerlikon GDF 35mm towed guns to transfer to Ukraine to complement the Gepards. There might be a few of the 14-odd ex-Argentine RAF Regiment examples left in storage and others available from surplus stocks elsewhere. But the UK hasn't run them for at least a couple of decades and several are in museums or serving as gate guards various places. And availability of suitable 35mm ammo seems limited.

 

[timmymagic]

I suspect these have been purchased on the open market from a 3rd party/s. A load of ZU-23's or something like that...

As for UK guns it would need to be something from MSI or AEI, but neither could make that many in a reasonable timeframe. Oddly enough the recently shown flat bed mounted MSI Terrahawk would be perfect to defend Ukraine critical infrastructure from Shahed 136...if it also mounted Martlet/Starstreak (and we know MSI can do that..) it would also protect from cruise missiles.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572879258850131968

View: https://twitter.com/MSIDefence/status/1572879258850131968


For UK warehoused old weapons the only way we could make that number would be if we had somehow kept all the Oerlikon 35mm from the RAF and all the Navy's retired Oerlikon 30mm, Oerlikon 20mm and Goalkeeper and had them available for land mounting...and even then I suspect we'd come up short on the 120...the Army definitely don't have any Bofors L60 around...

I've been told Rapier has definitely all gone, scrapped with haste following withdrawal. Nothing official, but the fact that we haven't sent it months ago would tend to support that hypothesis....if it hadn't I think we would have dumped them all into Ukraine in April/May this year.

 

[timmymagic]

Whatever happened to those truck-mounted Vulcans that protected bases in Afghanistan? Or did I imagine that?

How many AA guns did HM forces bring back from the Falklands. I wonder if they've been kept in grease for 40 years.

The UK Centurion systems were dismantled (and hopefully stored...), the Phalanx were returned to the Royal Navy Phalanx pool and have/are being upgraded to 1B standard.

The radars were retained from the Skyshield system for some time to monitor UK low flying areas (and catch transgressors..). But the guns are long gone to museums and 3rd parties. The ammo supply for them could be tricky for Ukraine as well (Switzerland again).

Perfect example of not storing something when we should....they were used to guard Waddington. I bet the RAF would love to have them back now...for counter UAV and loitering munition work protecting Expeditionary Airfields they'd make a lot of sense...or just for protecting Waddington and Lossiemouth..

 

[uk 75]

Given how many countries around the world have large stocks of weapons they cannot really use, maybe the UK is taking a leaf out of Oliver North's book and hoovering up weapons from our various mates in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Latin America.

 

[Fluff]

Given how many countries around the world have large stocks of weapons they cannot really use, maybe the UK is taking a leaf out of Oliver North's book and hoovering up weapons from our various mates in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Latin America.

I'd think the used price of say an zsu has massively increased in the last 6 months. From basically cant give em away, to a couple of hundred K$ ?

 

[timmymagic]

Given how many countries around the world have large stocks of weapons they cannot really use, maybe the UK is taking a leaf out of Oliver North's book and hoovering up weapons from our various mates in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Latin America.

I'd think the used price of say an zsu has massively increased in the last 6 months. From basically cant give em away, to a couple of hundred K$ ?

Don't doubt it for a second.Don't think they'll be that much though..

I'd love to think the UK MoD would revise its approach to disposals after no doubt being ripped off buying kit back....but given they didn't learn the lesson after having to buy a load of FV432 back at inflated prices to convert to Bulldog 15 years ago I suspect they won't. The MoD's relationship with the big UK surplus traders is rather weird...MoD don't seem to realise they have all the power in the relationship...

 

[Fluff]

Given how many countries around the world have large stocks of weapons they cannot really use, maybe the UK is taking a leaf out of Oliver North's book and hoovering up weapons from our various mates in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Latin America.

I'd think the used price of say an zsu has massively increased in the last 6 months. From basically cant give em away, to a couple of hundred K$ ?

Don't doubt it for a second.Don't think they'll be that much though..

I'd love to think the UK MoD would revise its approach to disposals after no doubt being ripped off buying kit back....but given they didn't learn the lesson after having to buy a load of FV432 back at inflated prices to convert to Bulldog 15 years ago I suspect they won't. The MoD's relationship with the big UK surplus traders is rather weird...MoD don't seem to realise they have all the power in the relationship...

Some of it is the accounting rules they use, which hammers them for holding onto 'stuff'. This makes sense for a business, but I'm not sure it works for a 'what if' organisation.

Hence you can look at uk mod auctions, and even though Ukr needs generators, MOD is selling brand new generators off. Likewise snow camo nets. Bizarely a ferret came up, now in Ukraine. Anyone need a box of .303 bren mags?

 

[Archibald]

The way things go, France will end selling 1897 "canons de 75" to Ukraine. Frack, against a cranky old T-64, they may still have a slim chance for a kill ?
How about Chassepot riffles ? MAC 1934 machine guns ?

 

[Archibald]

Given how many countries around the world have large stocks of weapons they cannot really use, maybe the UK is taking a leaf out of Oliver North's book and hoovering up weapons from our various mates in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Latin America.

Reminds me of that Malcolm in the middle episode where Francis and his pals makes a "Ollie North" song and choregraphy for Spangler, who is a die hard fan of North (how surprising).

 

[timmymagic]

Given how many countries around the world have large stocks of weapons they cannot really use, maybe the UK is taking a leaf out of Oliver North's book and hoovering up weapons from our various mates in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Latin America.

I'd think the used price of say an zsu has massively increased in the last 6 months. From basically cant give em away, to a couple of hundred K$ ?

Don't doubt it for a second.Don't think they'll be that much though..

I'd love to think the UK MoD would revise its approach to disposals after no doubt being ripped off buying kit back....but given they didn't learn the lesson after having to buy a load of FV432 back at inflated prices to convert to Bulldog 15 years ago I suspect they won't. The MoD's relationship with the big UK surplus traders is rather weird...MoD don't seem to realise they have all the power in the relationship...

Some of it is the accounting rules they use, which hammers them for holding onto 'stuff'. This makes sense for a business, but I'm not sure it works for a 'what if' organisation.

Hence you can look at uk mod auctions, and even though Ukr needs generators, MOD is selling brand new generators off. Likewise snow camo nets. Bizarely a ferret came up, now in Ukraine. Anyone need a box of .303 bren mags?

Stupid thing is...all it would require is a clause in the sale agreement. Literally a few lines of text. MoD could put in a buyback clause, original sale price plus 5%, and any legitimate, provable costs the purchaser has borne (e.g. transport, storage, maintenance etc.).

A couple of paragraphs in the standard T's and C's and they could end being ripped off when they buy kit back in a heartbeat...

 

[TinWing]

Given how many countries around the world have large stocks of weapons they cannot really use, maybe the UK is taking a leaf out of Oliver North's book and hoovering up weapons from our various mates in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Latin America.

I'd think the used price of say an zsu has massively increased in the last 6 months. From basically cant give em away, to a couple of hundred K$ ?

Don't doubt it for a second.Don't think they'll be that much though..

I'd love to think the UK MoD would revise its approach to disposals after no doubt being ripped off buying kit back....but given they didn't learn the lesson after having to buy a load of FV432 back at inflated prices to convert to Bulldog 15 years ago I suspect they won't. The MoD's relationship with the big UK surplus traders is rather weird...MoD don't seem to realise they have all the power in the relationship...

Some of it is the accounting rules they use, which hammers them for holding onto 'stuff'. This makes sense for a business, but I'm not sure it works for a 'what if' organisation.

Hence you can look at uk mod auctions, and even though Ukr needs generators, MOD is selling brand new generators off. Likewise snow camo nets. Bizarely a ferret came up, now in Ukraine. Anyone need a box of .303 bren mags?

Warehousing and inventorying old rubbish for decades is an expensive practice. Besides, the UK has a damp climate that is entirely adverse to storing anything that might rust or otherwise oxidize. My guess is that MOD policies have been shaped by ever decreasing numbers of installations and past embarrassments regarding surplus equipment had moldered away, been cannibalized or pilfered.

In any case, an Eastern European proxy war is an unlikely scenario that is even more unlikely to be repeated. This is not a contingency that was worth planning for. Who needed snow camo nets for playing around in a big sandbox?

 

[TinWing]

Given how many countries around the world have large stocks of weapons they cannot really use, maybe the UK is taking a leaf out of Oliver North's book and hoovering up weapons from our various mates in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Latin America.

I'd think the used price of say an zsu has massively increased in the last 6 months. From basically cant give em away, to a couple of hundred K$ ?

Don't doubt it for a second.Don't think they'll be that much though..

I'd love to think the UK MoD would revise its approach to disposals after no doubt being ripped off buying kit back....but given they didn't learn the lesson after having to buy a load of FV432 back at inflated prices to convert to Bulldog 15 years ago I suspect they won't. The MoD's relationship with the big UK surplus traders is rather weird...MoD don't seem to realise they have all the power in the relationship...

Some of it is the accounting rules they use, which hammers them for holding onto 'stuff'. This makes sense for a business, but I'm not sure it works for a 'what if' organisation.

Hence you can look at uk mod auctions, and even though Ukr needs generators, MOD is selling brand new generators off. Likewise snow camo nets. Bizarely a ferret came up, now in Ukraine. Anyone need a box of .303 bren mags?

Stupid thing is...all it would require is a clause in the sale agreement. Literally a few lines of text. MoD could put in a buyback clause, original sale price plus 5%, and any legitimate, provable costs the purchaser has borne (e.g. transport, storage, maintenance etc.).

A couple of paragraphs in the standard T's and C's and they could end being ripped off when they buy kit back in a heartbeat...

A “buyback” clause would pretty much preclude the buyer from making any use of the goods purchased and would essentially obligate purchasers to spend very real money on storage and upkeep.

And in our current world of inflation, what sort of return is 5%? Essentially your idea would preclude the disposal of all rubbish. The MOD needs to get rid of mostly worthless surplus and that’s the point of the current system.

Looking back, the FV432 buyback circa 2006 was mostly pointless and a lot of Britain’s undersized “armored” vehicles from that era are essentially death traps. I feel sorry for the guys who ended up with that Ferret.

 

[riggerrob]

...

In any case, an Eastern European proxy war is an unlikely scenario that is even more unlikely to be repeated. This is not a contingency that was worth planning for. Who needed snow camo nets for playing around in a big sandbox?

Have you ever spent a winter in the desert?
Desert air temperatures can drop from "heat exhaustion" to "freezing to death" in a mere 4 hours after sunset. I worked in the Southern California desert for a few years. I often wore multiple layers of clothing: long underwear, 1 or 2 pairs of long pants, jumpsuit plus 4 or 5 layers on my torso for sunrise jumps (skydiving), but by noon was down to short pants and a T-shirt.

 

[timmymagic]

A “buyback” clause would pretty much preclude the buyer from making any use of the goods purchased and would essentially obligate purchasers to spend very real money on storage and upkeep.

And in our current world of inflation, what sort of return is 5%? Essentially your idea would preclude the disposal of all rubbish. The MOD needs to get rid of mostly worthless surplus and that’s the point of the current system.

Looking back, the FV432 buyback circa 2006 was mostly pointless and a lot of Britain’s undersized “armored” vehicles from that era are essentially death traps. I feel sorry for the guys who ended up with that Ferret.

The 5% is just a number, could be 10%...the chances of the MoD exercising it are small. But it stops price gouging if they do...besides what are the MoD surplus suppliers going to do about it? Nothing...they've not got anywhere else to go...

FV432 buyback was for conversion to Bulldog and was very much needed. The Ukrainian's seem to rather like the Spartan's as well...
The Ferret was a private purchase...better than a Nissan Navara when there is any fragmentation flying around...

 

[Fluff]

Given how many countries around the world have large stocks of weapons they cannot really use, maybe the UK is taking a leaf out of Oliver North's book and hoovering up weapons from our various mates in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Latin America.

I'd think the used price of say an zsu has massively increased in the last 6 months. From basically cant give em away, to a couple of hundred K$ ?

Don't doubt it for a second.Don't think they'll be that much though..

I'd love to think the UK MoD would revise its approach to disposals after no doubt being ripped off buying kit back....but given they didn't learn the lesson after having to buy a load of FV432 back at inflated prices to convert to Bulldog 15 years ago I suspect they won't. The MoD's relationship with the big UK surplus traders is rather weird...MoD don't seem to realise they have all the power in the relationship...

Some of it is the accounting rules they use, which hammers them for holding onto 'stuff'. This makes sense for a business, but I'm not sure it works for a 'what if' organisation.

Hence you can look at uk mod auctions, and even though Ukr needs generators, MOD is selling brand new generators off. Likewise snow camo nets. Bizarely a ferret came up, now in Ukraine. Anyone need a box of .303 bren mags?

Stupid thing is...all it would require is a clause in the sale agreement. Literally a few lines of text. MoD could put in a buyback clause, original sale price plus 5%, and any legitimate, provable costs the purchaser has borne (e.g. transport, storage, maintenance etc.).

A couple of paragraphs in the standard T's and C's and they could end being ripped off when they buy kit back in a heartbeat...

A “buyback” clause would pretty much preclude the buyer from making any use of the goods purchased and would essentially obligate purchasers to spend very real money on storage and upkeep.

And in our current world of inflation, what sort of return is 5%? Essentially your idea would preclude the disposal of all rubbish. The MOD needs to get rid of mostly worthless surplus and that’s the point of the current system.

Looking back, the FV432 buyback circa 2006 was mostly pointless and a lot of Britain’s undersized “armored” vehicles from that era are essentially death traps. I feel sorry for the guys who ended up with that Ferret.

I hope, when NATO does lessons learnt, that a disposals policy it set. Really NATO should hold enough kit to help a friendly country(or NATO in a mass war) So x MBT, IFV, trucks, planes etc. Anything in excess can be sold, and when newer MBT become surplus, then the older set can then be sold. Of course there is a cost, but there is a cost to doing nothing, as well.

 

[riggerrob]

Long term storage looks expensive until you desperately need those old vehicles or weapons.
This is a classic case of gov't accountants not understanding the need for reserves. Gov't accountants are always under pressure to minimize the defense budget, but can never predict where the next war will be fought.

For example, gov't accountants have been trimming fat off the Canadian defense budget in a series of waves since World War 2. A couple of years back, my serving brother complained that single soldiers were being turfed out of barracks on base to make way for refugees from Syria and Ukraine.
It seems that gov't accountants decided that they only needed "X" number of barracks rooms to accommodate young, single, un-married servicemen, plus a few on course, a few recently divorced and a few on temporary duty. But when hundreds of refugees arrived from Syria, they completely overwhelmed barracks spaces, so single soldiers were forced to find apartments out on the civilian economy.
Meanwhile, gov't accountants still expect the Canadian Army to suddenly find large stocks of bull-dozers, trucks, Bailey bridges, tents, rations, bilge pumps, sand-bags, etc. every time the Richelieu River floods (every spring) or a forest catches fire (hundreds of times per year).

In a second instance of miss-guided cost-cutting, when Switzerland absorbed hundreds of refugees a decade or so ago, those refugees were initially housed in Swiss Army casernes, but after those were determined to be too spartan for refugees, those refugees were housed in civilian hotels at considerable expense to the Swiss government.

For North American readers: a caserne is essentially a compact, multi-story army base in the middle of a city: complete with sleeping quarters (e.g. bunk beds), kitchens, cafeterias, sports halls, lecture halls, quartermaster stores, minor medical facilities and maybe a religious chapel.

Bottom line: accountants can never build a perfectly efficient army with zero fat, because armies are by nature "what if" organizations that need to stockpile excess capabilities in case of fires, riots or mud slides. It is impossible to predict exactly what the next catastrophy will be, ergo it is impossible to predict exactly which supplies and weapons you will need the next time "the manure hits the ventilator."

 

[riggerrob]

Perhaps NATO needs a long-term storage facility in a really dry area.
The USA has Davis-Montham air base in the Arizona desert.
The Royal Canadian Air Force used to store redundant airplanes at Mountainview airport, a few miles from CFB Trenton. Granted, Trenton contains the RCAF's primary maintenance base, but it is with in pistol range of Lake Ontario ... hardly the driest place in Canada. Much drier would be the arctic or something in Palliser's Triangle (South Western Alberta), say the old BCATP triangular airfield at Claresholm, Alberta.

 

[timmymagic]

In case anyone is interested here are the 2 UK companies mentioned earlier, both quite small but highly experienced:

https://www.msi-dsl.com/ - Make most of the Royal Navy's smaller weapons mount, also make the USN's new mount

https://aei-systems.com/ - Now own the ADEN cannon design as OEM, but also make 20mm cannon called Alexis, gun mounts and a new lightweight 30mm cannon called Venom and a 84mm Recoilless Gun.

 

[timmymagic]

Perhaps NATO needs a long-term storage facility in a really dry area.

We have humidity controlled warehouses in the UK now, DSTL is increasingly replacing the estate with them for long term storage. Stick some solar panels on the roof and a few wind generators and the power demands are covered all year round with no need for transportation over long distances. Better than leaving them outside.

 

[aonestudio]

https://www.defensenews.com/congres...o-send-advanced-gray-eagle-drones-to-ukraine/

 

[Josh_TN]

I don't see how an MQ-1 has any survivability against Russian air defense. Seems like a very expensive TB-2 that can just as easily be shot down by SAMs and interceptors. If the ZSU wants them, presumably they have some perceived need and role for them, but I can't think what it would be.

 

[Moose]

The ZSU expressed interest over the summer, but I've not seen them explicitly mention Grey Eagle in awhile. Could just mean they're not asking publicly.

It has double the payload of TB-2 and better optics, so it's definitely a step up from the Bayraktar in terms of performance. Still, it's hardly a multirole tactical fighter.

 

[totoro]

Do we know for sure if it has better optics? To know that we would need hard figures for resolution of sensor at certain range, for BOTH systems. And i dont know if we have such figures avaialble even for one of the two.

 

[Nart]

The ZSU expressed interest over the summer, but I've not seen them explicitly mention Grey Eagle in awhile. Could just mean they're not asking publicly.

It has double the payload of TB-2 and better optics, so it's definitely a step up from the Bayraktar in terms of performance. Still, it's hardly a multirole tactical fighter.

The U.S. Army Gray Eagles are fitted with Raytheon AN/AAS-53 Common Sensor Payload (CSP). Both the Wescam CMX-15D (C=Custom, D=Designator) EO system on Ukrainian TB-2s and CSP/AAS-53 feature the same L3Harris 3-5µm mid-wave IR detectors and laser designators. I don't remember the exact dimensions, but CSP has a slightly larger aperture.

PS: What I'm trying to say is there isn't much of a difference sensor-wise.

 

[Forest Green]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597638621313761286

View: https://twitter.com/UA_22_Ukraine/status/1597638621313761286?s=20&t=103rMsniJaXe4qmHWdEsjg

 

[TomS]

Poland seems to be putting Germany in the hot seat.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/...ivert-pledged-german-air-defenses-to-ukraine/

Officials [in Poland] initially initially accepted Berlin’s gesture for Patriot launchers following a recent missile strike on Polish soil that killed two men. However, in an unexpected U-turn, Warsaw now suggests that Berlin deliver the systems to Ukraine instead to bolster that country’s defenses against Russia.

 

[Arjen]

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/...rman-patriot-air-defence-system-causes-a-stirThe news over here is Germany's offer came with German support personnel. Over the years, the Polish PiS government has leaned heavily on anti-German rhetoric for electoral gain - no matter how useful the German personnel and missiles might be to Poland, accepting German support would amount to an about-face for PiS. German (NATO) support crew in Ukraine has all kinds of interesting political ramifications. Short term tactical view, Ukraine would find Patriot missiles extremely useful.
I am unsure what in the end drove the PiS government to choose this course.

 

[TomS]

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/...rman-patriot-air-defence-system-causes-a-stirThe news over here is Germany's offer came with German support personnel. Over the years, the Polish PiS government has leaned heavily on anti-German rhetoric for electoral gain - no matter how useful the German personnel and missiles might be to Poland, accepting German support would amount to an about-face for PiS. German (NATO) support crew in Ukraine has all kinds of interesting political ramifications. Short term tactical view, Ukraine would find Patriot missiles extremely useful.
I am unsure what in the end drove the PiS government to choose this course.

Probably the realization that this wasn't a deliberate attack on Polish territory let them decide that the Patriot deployment wasn't urgent. Then they got to burn the Germans as an extra bonus.

 

[Flyaway]

The U.S. government is mulling sending the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine to help bolster its air defenses against an ongoing barrage of Russian strikes, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters.

“All capabilities are on the table,” the official said when asked if the Biden administration was considering sending Patriot batteries to Ukraine. “Patriot is one of the air defense capabilities that is being considered along with all others.”


Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder later told reporters that the Department of Defense (DOD) is discussing “a wide variety of capabilities and support with Ukraine,” regarding the country’s defense needs.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/...ng-patriot-missile-defense-system-to-ukraine/

 

[fightingirish]

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/...rman-patriot-air-defence-system-causes-a-stirThe news over here is Germany's offer came with German support personnel. Over the years, the Polish PiS government has leaned heavily on anti-German rhetoric for electoral gain - no matter how useful the German personnel and missiles might be to Poland, accepting German support would amount to an about-face for PiS. German (NATO) support crew in Ukraine has all kinds of interesting political ramifications. Short term tactical view, Ukraine would find Patriot missiles extremely useful.
I am unsure what in the end drove the PiS government to choose this course.

The main reason for the change of course is the upcoming general election in Poland next year, so the government in Poland and its leading party PiS (Law and Justice) can use anti-German and anti-Russian sentiments to gain more votes.
Link: https://breakingdefense.com/2022/11...lead-poland-to-reject-germanys-patriot-offer/