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Author Topic: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III  (Read 51558 times)

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #90 on: November 03, 2017, 01:37:46 pm »
Then you weren't in the right threads.  I provided evidence.  If you require network logs showing a Chinese incursion into LM and subsequent Chinese CATIA files used to produce the J-20s canopy as your "standard" then I'm sorry, can't help you.  Feel free to continue ignoring the obvious just because it doesn't sit well with you.

Considering how much all the burgeoning new stealth fighter programmes in Japan, SK, Turkey, India, are all looking increasingly like F-22/35, I actually think it's a fairly reasonable request, otherwise the only logical conclusion derived from your position is that all those nations have had access to Lockmart's inner sanctum as well...

Whereas in reality, as Reaper logically said in the Japanese next gen fighter thread:

Similar requirements + available technology result in similar looking concepts. And normally you pick the more conventional/proven configuration, since things get difficult at later development stages anyway (see X-35 vs X-32).
   


Actually, if you really want to argue your position, what you'd really want is some proof in Chinese networks indicating that they have actually integrated the data regarding F-35/22 attained by espionage, into developing their own fighters.

Hacking each other's networks should be no surprise -- I expect the US to have hacked CAC and AVIC to gain as much information about J-20 as China would have done for F-35/22. Cyber espionage is a thing, I don't think anyone disputes that.

But to argue for proof that one side has integrated the hacked info into their own product needs something a bit more substantial than "they look very similar," considering how many products of this category do seem to look very similar to each other.

Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #91 on: November 03, 2017, 02:50:38 pm »
Similar requirements + available technology result in similar looking concepts.

You mean like the YF-22 and YF-23?  Or the X-32 and X-35?  Or the F-16 and J-10?  Or the YF-16 and YF-17?  Or the A-9 and A-10? Or the Convair 200 and the XFV-12?  Or the Lockheed Blackbird and the Convair Kingfish?  If you really want to beat this dead horse, you're welcome to go look at all the previous threads.  It's all there. 
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Offline latenlazy

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #92 on: November 03, 2017, 02:51:23 pm »
All modern aircraft have four dimensions: span, length, height and Photoshop.

Indeed. It seems I was about right on the length three years ago, but gave it a bit too much span, according to these photos. I can't put my hand on my notes right now so I am not sure why I did that.

Fortunately the important bit in this case is the length, and most particularly not the LOA but the length from nose tip to the ends of the exhausts.
If I recall correctly you and I both put the span at somewhere around 13.5 meters. Given that we were working with satellite photos that was entirely within the very large margin of error we had. That said, I think there's still an off chance that the wingspan might be a bit bigger than 13 meters given the potential for different image distortions. Given the margins of error we're working with a difference of 1 or 2 pixels can skew measurements just enough to be of notice.

Offline latenlazy

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #93 on: November 03, 2017, 02:53:31 pm »
Similar requirements + available technology result in similar looking concepts.

You mean like the YF-22 and YF-23?  Or the X-32 and X-35?  Or the F-16 and J-10?  Or the YF-16 and YF-17?  Or the A-9 and A-10? Or the Convair 200 and the XFV-12?  Or the Lockheed Blackbird and the Convair Kingfish?  If you really want to beat this dead horse, you're welcome to go look at all the previous threads.  It's all there.
Nothing will stop a man from insisting that a cat and a dog are uncannily similar if they're committed to the notion.

Offline LowObservable

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #94 on: November 03, 2017, 03:07:41 pm »
Clearly China has had an effective cyber-espionage program for many years.

Unfortunately, Western programs have expanded their attack surface by forming worldwide networks of small companies to build political support, and some of these have not been as cyber-aware as they should be.

However, when it comes to appearances: as the man said, stealth is "shape, shape, shape and materials", so high-rez photos tell their own story. And finally, there are advantages to being the "fast follower" rather than the trail-breaker.

Conclusion: cyber-exploits have probably helped, but in areas we can't see in photos.

Offline latenlazy

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #95 on: November 03, 2017, 03:17:52 pm »
Clearly China has had an effective cyber-espionage program for many years.

Unfortunately, Western programs have expanded their attack surface by forming worldwide networks of small companies to build political support, and some of these have not been as cyber-aware as they should be.

However, when it comes to appearances: as the man said, stealth is "shape, shape, shape and materials", so high-rez photos tell their own story. And finally, there are advantages to being the "fast follower" rather than the trail-breaker.

Conclusion: cyber-exploits have probably helped, but in areas we can't see in photos.

I have no doubt espionahe helped immensely, but the idea that entire parts were copied to the letter reflects a caveman's understanding of engineering. If the espionage is for improving your own technology, the value is in the basic research and science that stolen designs can tell you, not the particular solutions that were derived from that body of knowledge. China is very clearly inventing their own solutions at this point. Anything they've taken from other countries emerges digested and reformulated when employed into their own designs. That doesn't mean they didn't benefit immensely from stolen information. It just means they're not as crude and unsophisticated in their efforts as some would like imply. No matter how much they benefited from stolen knowledge they still built a different plane.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2017, 03:19:42 pm by latenlazy »

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #96 on: November 03, 2017, 03:27:09 pm »
Similar requirements + available technology result in similar looking concepts.

You mean like the YF-22 and YF-23?  Or the X-32 and X-35?  Or the F-16 and J-10?  Or the YF-16 and YF-17?  Or the A-9 and A-10? Or the Convair 200 and the XFV-12?  Or the Lockheed Blackbird and the Convair Kingfish?  If you really want to beat this dead horse, you're welcome to go look at all the previous threads.  It's all there.

Or how about KFX, F-3, TFX, AMCA, FC-31...?


Keep in mind, I'm not saying that there is 0 chance of any hacked F-35 or F-22 info that could've been used in FC-31 or J-20, but I am saying that if the foundation of that argument is because J-20 and FC-31 look very similar to F-35 and F-22 then the argument is a very weak one, when considering how all the other nation's stealth fighter programmes also look like F-35 and F-22.

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #97 on: November 03, 2017, 03:31:36 pm »
Clearly China has had an effective cyber-espionage program for many years.

Unfortunately, Western programs have expanded their attack surface by forming worldwide networks of small companies to build political support, and some of these have not been as cyber-aware as they should be.

However, when it comes to appearances: as the man said, stealth is "shape, shape, shape and materials", so high-rez photos tell their own story. And finally, there are advantages to being the "fast follower" rather than the trail-breaker.

Conclusion: cyber-exploits have probably helped, but in areas we can't see in photos.

I think that is a reasonable argument. Either directly or indirectly I expect the espionage has helped to inform and accelerate China's stealth programmes to some degree.


I just find the argument of "they look similar therefore it's proof they've applied hacked data" to be flimsy.

Offline kcran567

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #98 on: November 03, 2017, 10:10:32 pm »
Well in the case of the J-11 it was more than just "looking similar" so they do have a history of directly copying whatever they can.

Offline latenlazy

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #99 on: November 03, 2017, 11:00:35 pm »
Well in the case of the J-11 it was more than just "looking similar" so they do have a history of directly copying whatever they can.
In the case of the J-11 the entire internals of the plane were reworked.

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #100 on: November 03, 2017, 11:09:13 pm »
Well in the case of the J-11 it was more than just "looking similar" so they do have a history of directly copying whatever they can.

There are many more examples of REing products -- J-15, Z-8, Z-9, Y-8, H-6, J-7 etc depending on how far you want to go back.


But we're talking about J-20 and FC-31 here.
Unless a person is going into it with the prior assumption of "it's a Chinese product, therefore it must involve copying in some form," then I can't see how one could use the basis of similar appearances to argue that hacked information was used, given how similar all other stealth fighters under development look to F-35/22.


Or I suppose a better question is, do they deserve the benefit of doubt for each individual product in a case by case basis unless otherwise suggested -- or is an inference going to be made based on past products that all Chinese products involve copying and thus presume that it will be involved for every other product of theirs in the present and in the future unless proven otherwise?

Offline kaiserd

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #101 on: November 04, 2017, 03:14:42 am »
Clearly China has had an effective cyber-espionage program for many years.

Unfortunately, Western programs have expanded their attack surface by forming worldwide networks of small companies to build political support, and some of these have not been as cyber-aware as they should be.

However, when it comes to appearances: as the man said, stealth is "shape, shape, shape and materials", so high-rez photos tell their own story. And finally, there are advantages to being the "fast follower" rather than the trail-breaker.

Conclusion: cyber-exploits have probably helped, but in areas we can't see in photos.

I think that is a reasonable argument. Either directly or indirectly I expect the espionage has helped to inform and accelerate China's stealth programmes to some degree.


I just find the argument of "they look similar therefore it's proof they've applied hacked data" to be flimsy.

Agreed.
The Chinese aviation industry will have learned from its international contemporaries from various legitimate and not-so-legitimate information sources. It will also have learned from its own experience and research.
The fruits of this collective knowledge is then seen in its products.
For example, in a different time and context, the variable inlets of the J-8 II probably owe a lot to Egyptian MIG-23s sold to China. But it’s massively simplistic to say that these inlets (or the overall J-8 II) is a copy of the MIG-23; they’ll be a whole lot of information and experience from other sources involved.

In any case historic claims of one country copying (without license production or similar intentional consensual technical exchange) another countries aircraft have tended to be exaggerated and overblown; how many times were Cold-War Soviet aircraft inaccurately described as copies of Western equivalents?
In the Cold War such claims tended to relate at least as much to a psychological need to minimize an adversaries perceived technical skill and capabilities (while trying to maintain a sense of your own aviation industry’s superiority) as it did to any legitimate examples of espionage.
Such propaganda said a lot about the propagandist.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2017, 07:31:35 am by kaiserd »

Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #102 on: November 04, 2017, 05:06:05 am »
But we're talking about J-20 and FC-31 here.

I never said anything about the FC-31 but was speaking of the J-20 specifically (and not the newer ones with the new canopy).
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Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #103 on: November 04, 2017, 05:07:41 am »
Well in the case of the J-11 it was more than just "looking similar" so they do have a history of directly copying whatever they can.

There are many more examples of REing products -- J-15, Z-8, Z-9, Y-8, H-6, J-7 etc depending on how far you want to go back.

If you go into other areas you can add the RAM (short range naval SAM), Goalkeeper, Mk41 VLS (hell, many of the bolt patterns are even the same on that one), S-300, Brahmos, etc. etc. etc.
"DARPA Hard"  It ain't what it use to be.

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #104 on: November 04, 2017, 01:34:26 pm »
But we're talking about J-20 and FC-31 here.

I never said anything about the FC-31 but was speaking of the J-20 specifically (and not the newer ones with the new canopy).

My argument still stands.