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Author Topic: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III  (Read 40414 times)

Online PaulMM (Overscan)

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Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« on: January 11, 2017, 10:55:54 am »
Part 3 of the J-20 topic starts here.

Part 2 was here

Interesting close-up pic posted on CDF by Deino...
« Last Edit: January 11, 2017, 11:36:13 am by PaulMM (Overscan) »
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Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2017, 01:57:49 pm »
It is notoriously difficult to prove the non- existence of things, be they security breaches, the F-19 or the Loch Ness monster.

You have conjecture. That's it. There may be something there. And maybe not.

Well the fact that there have been LARGE data breaches isn't "non-existent".  I would be astonished if they collected all that information and then didn't bother to read it. That the J-20's initial canopy was damn near a carbon copy of the F-22's canopy, even down to some of the hardware, is not disputable.  (Geometrically at least. Chemical composition can't be eye-balled.)

No one's denying there weren't data breaches -- however I don't believe there is evidence to suggest they were involved in J-20s development. The data breaches could very well have been to look for weaknesses in F-22 and F-35 to develop countermeasures for them (if we knew what kind of data China took then that would be greatly useful in clearing that up).

The fact that J-20's canopy seemingly looked identical to F-22's could just as well have resulted from having access to pictures of F-22 as well..


This entire argument basically comes down to the idea that China hacked Lock Mart and gained data on F-35 and F-22, then a few years later they come up with a stealth fighter that has some superficial resemblance to some aspects of F-35 and F-22, therefore said stealth fighter probably resulted from data gained from F-35 and F-22.

But then we remember that all the superficial resemblance and similar design features of J-20 to F-35 and F-22 could have been attained or cued through open, non-espionage means due to the US's ridiculously transparent development cycle for JSF and ATF (also, considering how the stealth fighter designs of other nations like Japan, South Korea, Turkey, India etc are shaping up, it seems like everyone's benefited from Lockheed Martin's pioneering work). And we don't even know what kind of data or documents China took which might help us to inform us about what they could have done with it.


So with all that in mind, I'd say the evidence suggesting J-20 was developed with assistant from pilfered Lockmart data right now is scant at best, and the only conclusion we have right now is that such a possibility was not impossible -- however I think we are very, very far from saying such a possibility was likely.

And as Latenlazy said in the last thread -- nations conduct espionage for all sorts of reasons, and it is rather surprising to me that the emergence of J-20 makes one think that the espionage against F-35/22 thus inevitably must have benefitted J-20. I think that says more about what the individual's perceptions of CAC, 611 and/or the Chinese aerospace industry at large, rather than proper assessment of the evidence, facts and context we have at our disposal.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2017, 02:03:22 pm by Blitzo »

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2017, 01:59:45 pm »
Thanks Deino...I am being forced to get my info from wider sources recently unfortunately.
Deino, are these in actual squadron usage already, or an Operational Conversion Unit? Is there a most recent indication of how many serial production machines there are?
Either way, as said, it is a mightily impressive pace.

I think they would be currently in the the Chinese equivalent of OT&E.

Unfortunately we don't have any clear grasp of how many production aircraft there are... At least 4-6, maybe more, but none ever all taken in the same picture.

Offline kaiserbill

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2017, 02:45:17 pm »
Thanks Deino...I am being forced to get my info from wider sources recently unfortunately.
Deino, are these in actual squadron usage already, or an Operational Conversion Unit? Is there a most recent indication of how many serial production machines there are?
Either way, as said, it is a mightily impressive pace.

I think they would be currently in the the Chinese equivalent of OT&E.

Unfortunately we don't have any clear grasp of how many production aircraft there are... At least 4-6, maybe more, but none ever all taken in the same picture.

Thanks for that feedback Blitzo..The last I saw on another site was 4 production aircraft I think but that was a few weeks back.
As said, the programme seems to be moving rapidly, relatively speaking.

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2017, 03:11:18 pm »
Thanks for that feedback Blitzo..The last I saw on another site was 4 production aircraft I think but that was a few weeks back.
As said, the programme seems to be moving rapidly, relatively speaking.

no problem

To be honest, if only four production aircraft were built for the whole of 2016 (beginning with 2101) then I think that would actually be a bit on the slow side. don't get me wrong, going from prototype s/n 2001 in early 2011 to LRIP s/n 2101 just five years later is no small feat, but for the whole of 2006 2016 I would be surprised if only four new J-20s were built in total.

Unfortunately, it is not only difficult to ascertain how many production J-20s have actually been handed to the Air Force, but also difficult to ascertain how many total J-20s have been produced since s/n 2101!
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 04:14:53 pm by Blitzo »

Offline kaiserbill

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2017, 12:22:32 am »
Yes...I see your point. What we've seen are only what's been captured on images and probably doesn't reflect what has actually been built.
The total production figures in mind for a high end platform like this will be interesting.

Offline FighterJock

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2017, 06:39:23 am »
Yes...I see your point. What we've seen are only what's been captured on images and probably doesn't reflect what has actually been built.
The total production figures in mind for a high end platform like this will be interesting.

Indeed it will be interesting for the total production figures.  And also what aircraft will be replaced with the J-20As?  For starters, I don't think that it will be the latest J-8s as they have not long come out of an upgrade program.

Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2017, 04:04:46 am »
Yes...I see your point. What we've seen are only what's been captured on images and probably doesn't reflect what has actually been built.
The total production figures in mind for a high end platform like this will be interesting.

Indeed it will be interesting for the total production figures.  And also what aircraft will be replaced with the J-20As?  For starters, I don't think that it will be the latest J-8s as they have not long come out of an upgrade program.

There are quite reliable reports about more than a dozen LRIP-birds out there. No. 11 was spotted in October and this - from yesterday - is said to be #13.
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
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I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
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For nothing now can ever come to any good.
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Offline FighterJock

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2017, 04:46:10 am »
Yes...I see your point. What we've seen are only what's been captured on images and probably doesn't reflect what has actually been built.
The total production figures in mind for a high end platform like this will be interesting.

Indeed it will be interesting for the total production figures.  And also what aircraft will be replaced with the J-20As?  For starters, I don't think that it will be the latest J-8s as they have not long come out of an upgrade program.

There are quite reliable reports about more than a dozen LRIP-birds out there. No. 11 was spotted in October and this - from yesterday - is said to be #13.

With Low Rate Initial Production under way with 13 aircraft operational according to reports, how long will it be before Full Rate Production starts? 

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2017, 05:42:06 am »


Indeed it will be interesting for the total production figures.  And also what aircraft will be replaced with the J-20As?  For starters, I don't think that it will be the latest J-8s as they have not long come out of an upgrade program.
There are still j8d, produced in late 80s and early 90s, that are long in the tooth, even if theyve been modernized to H standard a decade ago. Furthermore, a few dozen of su27 have already been retired, so the rest of them will also need replacement soon.

Of course, just like with j10 producton, it may be so j20 come to j11 regiments, which would then provide their airframe to regiments which currently operate old j8 and su27.
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Offline kaiserbill

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2017, 08:50:08 am »

There are quite reliable reports about more than a dozen LRIP-birds out there. No. 11 was spotted in October and this - from yesterday - is said to be #13.

I had no idea that they had moved so rapidly on the programme. Seems like only yesterday when we were still viewing test prototypes... Thanks for the info Deino.

Offline FighterJock

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2017, 10:53:57 am »


Indeed it will be interesting for the total production figures.  And also what aircraft will be replaced with the J-20As?  For starters, I don't think that it will be the latest J-8s as they have not long come out of an upgrade program.
There are still j8d, produced in late 80s and early 90s, that are long in the tooth, even if theyve been modernized to H standard a decade ago. Furthermore, a few dozen of su27 have already been retired, so the rest of them will also need replacement soon.

Of course, just like with j10 producton, it may be so j20 come to j11 regiments, which would then provide their airframe to regiments which currently operate old j8 and su27.

So how many Su-27 fighter squadrons do the PLAAF actually have? 

Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #12 on: January 15, 2017, 12:49:15 am »
Serials 78273 and 78274 !
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
...
For nothing now can ever come to any good.
-------------------------------------------------
W.H.Auden (1945)

Offline CiTrus90

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #13 on: January 15, 2017, 01:28:22 am »
Awsome pics, thanks for sharing Deino!
Regards.

L. Landino

Offline totoro

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #14 on: January 15, 2017, 04:31:07 am »


So how many Su-27 fighter squadrons do the PLAAF actually have?

According to scramble.nl orbat, there arent any pure su27 regiments. Plaaf seems to be mixing them up with j11a.  One could roughly calculate from the given orbat of 6 su27/j11a regiments, and the fact su27 are oldest flankers plaaf has and are probably first in line to be retired, that there are two dozen su27sk left in service. Alongside slightly higher number of su27ubk left.
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Offline FighterJock

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #15 on: January 15, 2017, 05:50:14 am »


So how many Su-27 fighter squadrons do the PLAAF actually have?

According to scramble.nl orbat, there arent any pure su27 regiments. Plaaf seems to be mixing them up with j11a.  One could roughly calculate from the given orbat of 6 su27/j11a regiments, and the fact su27 are oldest flankers plaaf has and are probably first in line to be retired, that there are two dozen su27sk left in service. Alongside slightly higher number of su27ubk left.

You learn something every day, thanks for the information totoro.  B)

Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #16 on: February 02, 2017, 08:55:36 am »
A rare image posted by @OedoSoldier at Twitter shows both J-XX concepts at the China Aerospace Science & Technology-expo in 2000: The CAC concept - aka later J-20 - in grey and the SAC concept in black.

He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
...
For nothing now can ever come to any good.
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W.H.Auden (1945)

Offline FighterJock

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #17 on: February 02, 2017, 11:02:02 am »
A rare image posted by @OedoSoldier at Twitter shows both J-XX concepts at the China Aerospace Science & Technology-expo in 2000: The CAC concept - aka later J-20 - in grey and the SAC concept in black.

Interesting photos Deino, but what I have just noticed is that the missile near the bottom of the second picture has a ramjet that is similar to the often mentioned PL-21.  Is that missile an early mock up because from what I have seen the current PL-21 design is often now seen with two ramjets.

Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #18 on: February 20, 2017, 04:39:40 am »
 ;)
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
...
For nothing now can ever come to any good.
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W.H.Auden (1945)

Ian33

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #19 on: February 20, 2017, 09:12:18 am »
 :o  That's absolutely astounding. The legs on that beast must be up to its armpits.

Still say it's one of the most beautiful aircraft in today's skies.

Offline thrax

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #20 on: February 20, 2017, 09:31:59 am »
 If it looks good, it flies good.
 And it that pic it looks awessome  B)

Offline Airplane

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #21 on: February 20, 2017, 10:08:42 am »
I don't get the 4 bags of gas. Are they on a sortie to Hawaii?
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Offline starviking

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #22 on: February 20, 2017, 02:22:17 pm »
The fuel tanks would be useful for patroling around Taiwan.

Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #23 on: February 21, 2017, 02:27:21 am »
 :o
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
...
For nothing now can ever come to any good.
-------------------------------------------------
W.H.Auden (1945)

Ian33

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #24 on: February 21, 2017, 03:42:47 am »
:o

When you absolutely have to reach out and touch some one and no tanker is available.

Offline FighterJock

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #25 on: February 21, 2017, 05:14:49 am »
Bear in mind that China has long borders, the J-20 would have to carry at least four external fuel tanks depending on where the J-20 squadron was based.

Offline starviking

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #26 on: February 21, 2017, 06:22:09 pm »
Bear in mind that China has long borders, the J-20 would have to carry at least four external fuel tanks depending on where the J-20 squadron was based.

True. The ability to self-relocate to the South China Sea airfields might also need external tanking.

Offline starviking

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #27 on: February 22, 2017, 05:24:55 pm »
:o

When you absolutely have to reach out and touch some one and no tanker is available.

Hitting AWACS and other supporting assets far from base. I wonder how much radius the tanks give?

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #28 on: February 22, 2017, 05:58:27 pm »
:o

When you absolutely have to reach out and touch some one and no tanker is available.

Hitting AWACS and other supporting assets far from base. I wonder how much radius the tanks give?

I wouldn't feel comfortable having a stealth fighter fly beyond one's IADS defended borders with EFTs during war time. I think during a conflict, J-20s would not fly outside of China's borders with EFTs.

I believe the primary use of EFTs would be to support rapid redeployment from bases within China's borders during conflict, where they take off from one base  (say in central or western China) loaded with EFTs and internally loaded with AAMs or other ordnance for their mission, and then as they near the theatre of operations (say, the airspace over the East China Sea beyond China's IADS borders) they would eject their EFTs+wet hardpoints and proceed with their mission in a clean configuration. After their mission, they would land at a base near their theatre of operations where support crew and logistics would have been ferried and/or pre-placed to support sustained operations from that airbase.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2017, 06:02:34 pm by Blitzo »

Offline FighterJock

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #29 on: February 23, 2017, 02:56:30 am »
:o

When you absolutely have to reach out and touch some one and no tanker is available.

Hitting AWACS and other supporting assets far from base. I wonder how much radius the tanks give?

I wouldn't feel comfortable having a stealth fighter fly beyond one's IADS defended borders with EFTs during war time. I think during a conflict, J-20s would not fly outside of China's borders with EFTs.

I believe the primary use of EFTs would be to support rapid redeployment from bases within China's borders during conflict, where they take off from one base  (say in central or western China) loaded with EFTs and internally loaded with AAMs or other ordnance for their mission, and then as they near the theatre of operations (say, the airspace over the East China Sea beyond China's IADS borders) they would eject their EFTs+wet hardpoints and proceed with their mission in a clean configuration. After their mission, they would land at a base near their theatre of operations where support crew and logistics would have been ferried and/or pre-placed to support sustained operations from that airbase.

I too would not feel comfortable with J-20's flying with four external fuel tanks either, plus the fact that China now has a extremely long-range missile as well.

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #30 on: February 23, 2017, 03:29:38 am »
I too would not feel comfortable with J-20's flying with four external fuel tanks either, plus the fact that China now has a extremely long-range missile as well.

J-20's weapons bay can't hold the large PL-X VLRAAM I think, and carrying them externally would result in similar compromise of stealthiness that EFTs would result. Though I'm sure they would be happy to use Flankers and J-10s as PL-X platforms.

J-20 is a fairly large, stealthy, air superiority fighter-interceptor. Carrying external stores in a theatre of combat would greatly compromise its ability to perform that role.

Online latenlazy

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #31 on: February 23, 2017, 10:15:25 pm »
I too would not feel comfortable with J-20's flying with four external fuel tanks either, plus the fact that China now has a extremely long-range missile as well.

J-20's weapons bay can't hold the large PL-X VLRAAM I think, and carrying them externally would result in similar compromise of stealthiness that EFTs would result. Though I'm sure they would be happy to use Flankers and J-10s as PL-X platforms.

J-20 is a fairly large, stealthy, air superiority fighter-interceptor. Carrying external stores in a theatre of combat would greatly compromise its ability to perform that role.

I mean, the whole point of such a long range AAM is that you don't need stealth to penetrate into your adversary's IADS.

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #32 on: February 23, 2017, 10:37:40 pm »
I mean, the whole point of such a long range AAM is that you don't need stealth to penetrate into your adversary's IADS.

Yes, partially true, although mounting it on a non 5th generation fighter means the fighter carrying the PL-X may come under threat from the opfor's own fighters who would likely air missions "forwards" to meet your non-stealthy fighters which their own AEW&C will still be able to detect.

That said, obviously the PL-X is a very good way of targeting the opponent's airborne force multipliers and potentially even targets down to the size of fighter aircraft at very long range. But it would also probably be much more effective if it could be stored within a stealthy platform. Part of me hopes the bat winged JH-XX is still being pursued, as it would probably have a big enough main weapons bay to store a number of PL-X missiles comfortably.

Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #33 on: February 24, 2017, 06:08:07 am »
New bird, new camouflage ... say HELLO to #5
« Last Edit: February 24, 2017, 06:13:03 am by Deino »
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
...
For nothing now can ever come to any good.
-------------------------------------------------
W.H.Auden (1945)

Ian33

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #34 on: February 24, 2017, 09:46:04 am »
Astoundingly beautiful.

Thank you very much for your continued (sterling I must add!) effort to keep this thread at the bleeding edge of information aboutique this wonderful airframe.

Thank you.

Offline FighterJock

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #35 on: February 24, 2017, 11:36:09 am »
Absolutely stunning images Deino.  B)

Offline Steven

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #36 on: February 26, 2017, 10:54:34 am »
None of the production aircraft appears to have noticeable canopy tint or actual EOTS apertures. Perhaps those items are not finished in their development?
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Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #37 on: February 26, 2017, 11:10:27 am »
None of the production aircraft appears to have noticeable canopy tint or actual EOTS apertures. Perhaps those items are not finished in their development?

There were quite a few F-35s built before they got actual EOTS as I recall as well. 2017 definitely looks tinted. 2016 as well.



« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 11:12:29 am by sferrin »
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Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #38 on: June 01, 2017, 01:59:38 am »
No really big news recently - at least no new LRIP-bird, no new images - however a news report posted on May 25 opened up some interesting and quite controversial discussions:

Several of the supporters that China already has the WS-15 operational in these LRIP-aircraft often quote this page:

http://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2017-05-26/doc-ifyfqqyh8509588.shtml

The issue raised up again with this latest CCTV-report that got some hype by the usual suspects in certain forums as being prove that the WS-15 is ready, that the WS-15 is available already in 4 versions and the most powerful one delivering 24t of thrust.  :o

As far as I however understand this report:
- No single word mentions the specific engine type used on the J-20,
- no single word mentions WS-10B or even WS-15 ??
- All this report says quite mysteriously, the "J-20 uses a locally manufactured engine" and it merely mentioned Liming factory.

My question now is - regardless what I think - as long as we don't know its true designation nor any specific data, I don't see this discussion in no way as a finally closed case. But can anyone identify this certain part of an engine under construction as shown below ?

Deino

He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
...
For nothing now can ever come to any good.
-------------------------------------------------
W.H.Auden (1945)

Offline flateric

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #39 on: June 01, 2017, 02:28:56 am »
The issue raised up again with this latest CCTV-report that got some hype by the usual suspects in certain forums as being prove that the WS-15 is ready, that the WS-15 is available already in 4 versions and the most powerful one delivering 24t of thrust.
lol
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Offline flateric

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #40 on: June 01, 2017, 02:29:18 am »


slightly better quality vid
"There are many disbelievers in
stealth, more than a few of them truly technically ignorant and proud of it." Sherm Mullin, Skunk Works

Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #41 on: June 01, 2017, 03:47:41 am »
The issue raised up again with this latest CCTV-report that got some hype by the usual suspects in certain forums as being prove that the WS-15 is ready, that the WS-15 is available already in 4 versions and the most powerful one delivering 24t of thrust.
lol

Yes it is indeed surprising what some people have in mind.  ;)

Anyway to admit, my hope was, that anyone would/could identify this certain part as part of either from an AL-31FN or from a WS-10, since IMO these are the only realistic options. I cannot believe that would be - besides the established WS-10 and the WS-15 still under development - yet another high-thrust powerplant in China available.

Or does anyone has more and better info ?

Deino
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
...
For nothing now can ever come to any good.
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W.H.Auden (1945)

Offline thrax

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #42 on: June 01, 2017, 04:11:46 am »
Deino how they say 'Aegean ghost' camo in Han Chinese?  B)

Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #43 on: September 03, 2017, 08:42:27 am »
For the first time, a J-20A LRIP was spotted with a variant of the WS-10 'Taihang' - maybe the IPE - but fitted with serrated nozzle feathers.

Of note are the typical internal structures of the nozzle (for comparison on a WS-10A fitted to a J-11B).
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
...
For nothing now can ever come to any good.
-------------------------------------------------
W.H.Auden (1945)

Offline LowObservable

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #44 on: September 03, 2017, 09:04:42 am »
I found this adjacent to the same photo. Translation of caption would be welcome. The J-20's expression needs no translation...

Offline raptor82

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #45 on: September 04, 2017, 12:02:27 am »
I found this adjacent to the same photo. Translation of caption would be welcome. The J-20's expression needs no translation...

"Don't worry ,the (anorectal) surgery will be completed soon. Remember,don't eat too-spicy 火锅(hotpot dishes)next time."

Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #46 on: September 04, 2017, 04:24:47 am »
I found this adjacent to the same photo. Translation of caption would be welcome. The J-20's expression needs no translation...

via: https://twitter.com/boweconstrictr/status/904441827570458624

"Relax, the operation will be done soon. Remember from now on not to have such spicy things in hotpot!"   ;D
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
...
For nothing now can ever come to any good.
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W.H.Auden (1945)

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Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #48 on: September 04, 2017, 09:38:06 am »
Image of J-20 with WS-10B.

http://chinese-military-aviation.blogspot.co.id/2012/07/fighters_18.html



Already posted yesterday !  ;)

BY the way I missed to post this one ....  :-*
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
...
For nothing now can ever come to any good.
-------------------------------------------------
W.H.Auden (1945)

Offline Triton

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #49 on: September 19, 2017, 06:00:55 pm »
September 17, 2017

Quote
High speed taxiing of WS-10B powered J-20 2021, maiden flight in a few days via fyjs.

Source:
https://china.liveuamap.com/en/2017/18-september-high-speed-taxiing-of-ws10b-powered-j20-2021

Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #50 on: September 20, 2017, 03:47:34 am »
Maiden flight successfully accomplished yesterday  :D... sadly only this gif available.  ???
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
...
For nothing now can ever come to any good.
-------------------------------------------------
W.H.Auden (1945)

Offline FighterJock

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #51 on: September 20, 2017, 03:51:58 am »
Interesting GIF Deino, pity there is no actual video footage available.  Time will tell if they release any.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #52 on: October 29, 2017, 01:08:38 pm »
"Professional notes: The U.S. F-35 versus the PRC J-20"
Proceedings Magazine October 2017
by Dr. Mark B Schneider

Source:
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017-10/professional-notes-us-f-35-versus-prc-j-20

« Last Edit: October 29, 2017, 01:13:20 pm by Triton »

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #53 on: October 29, 2017, 09:20:10 pm »
"Professional notes: The U.S. F-35 versus the PRC J-20"
Proceedings Magazine October 2017
by Dr. Mark B Schneider

Source:
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017-10/professional-notes-us-f-35-versus-prc-j-20

A poor piece, really poor effort.

First sentence calling it a strike fighter/interceptor raises some eyebrows is a bit concerning, and the statement about presence or lackthereof regarding its gun is even more so.

I'm not sure what A2A missile J-20 has been seen externally carrying because none have been seen being carried that way (he may be thinking of PL-X that J-16 and J-11B have been seen carrying).

J-20's weapon bays are obviously nowhere near large enough to carry an A2G weapon with a "600 mile range".

Calling J-20's radar an "early" AESA from the Chinese industry is also a bit strange, given they've had AESAs aboard a number of different platforms in service for over a decade now. Maybe he meant fighter AESA, but then that doesn't carry the same connotation.

I'm also surprised at the notion of more J-20s being produced than F-35s, that gave me a laugh.



It seems like an article that someone with an academic and military background but with near zero prior familiarity with the J-20 (or indeed the Chinese military) itself, wrote with a one week deadline, with the option to use open sources/internet.


A professional might have written this piece, but unfortunately the fellow is an amateur in Chinese military matters.

Offline totoro

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #54 on: October 30, 2017, 06:24:25 am »
To nitpick, J-20s bay MAY one day be able to hold a2g weapons with 600 mile range. Case in point - JSOW-ER can achieve 560 km (350 miles)and can be carried by F-35. (carrying a 250 kg class warhead)

JASSM-ER is to have 920 km range (almost 600 miles) with a modified engine, carrying a 500 kg class warhead. A 620 mile range option was achievable with a completely new engine but was not pursued in development.

Making warhead smaller, 250 kg class, might enable even longer range or might enable similar 600 mile range with a slightly smaller body.

JASSM-ER is 4.27 m long, so it can fit length wise in J20's bay. With bay being 90ish cm wide, that's also doable. What's questionable is depth. JASSM seems to be some 55-60 cm tall, complete with the pylon interface. That is almost surely too much for J20, as it's unlikely depth of J20's bays is much over 35-40 cm (due to PL-15 requirements)

So basically it'd have to be a weapon 4,3 m long, with cross section dimensions of 35-40 cm height and 80-90 cm wide. (to compensate for the height loss to overall volume).  That'd still fit in one of J20's bomb bay but it'd have to be a novel, daring, semi blended wing/body design.

Or if warhead is just 250 kg then it might be something in between, perhaps 40 by 70 cm cross section...

It seems doable, when Chinese engine tech catches up. Just not likely efficient or plausible for the forseeable future.

What does seem perfectly plausible even with current Chinese engine tech is a 300+ km range stealthy a2g missile, basically a bit longer and wider JSOW.
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Offline stealthflanker

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #55 on: October 30, 2017, 09:20:54 am »
Or for now it does not need to rely on standoff weapon. but employed in similar manner as F-22's. Rely on stealth to penetrate. Release multiple weapons (Say L-100's) the supercruise to evade SAM's or fighters.

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #56 on: October 30, 2017, 04:35:34 pm »
To nitpick, J-20s bay MAY one day be able to hold a2g weapons with 600 mile range. Case in point - JSOW-ER can achieve 560 km (350 miles)and can be carried by F-35. (carrying a 250 kg class warhead)

JASSM-ER is to have 920 km range (almost 600 miles) with a modified engine, carrying a 500 kg class warhead. A 620 mile range option was achievable with a completely new engine but was not pursued in development.

Making warhead smaller, 250 kg class, might enable even longer range or might enable similar 600 mile range with a slightly smaller body.

JASSM-ER is 4.27 m long, so it can fit length wise in J20's bay. With bay being 90ish cm wide, that's also doable. What's questionable is depth. JASSM seems to be some 55-60 cm tall, complete with the pylon interface. That is almost surely too much for J20, as it's unlikely depth of J20's bays is much over 35-40 cm (due to PL-15 requirements)

So basically it'd have to be a weapon 4,3 m long, with cross section dimensions of 35-40 cm height and 80-90 cm wide. (to compensate for the height loss to overall volume).  That'd still fit in one of J20's bomb bay but it'd have to be a novel, daring, semi blended wing/body design.

Or if warhead is just 250 kg then it might be something in between, perhaps 40 by 70 cm cross section...

It seems doable, when Chinese engine tech catches up. Just not likely efficient or plausible for the forseeable future.

What does seem perfectly plausible even with current Chinese engine tech is a 300+ km range stealthy a2g missile, basically a bit longer and wider JSOW.


Oh I definitely do think that a weapon developed specifically for J-20's weapons bays could potentially be fairly long ranged, like 300+km.

But talking about the notion of a 600+ mile range weapon for J-20 as if such a weapon already exists (which the article suggests), is just ludicrous.

Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #57 on: October 31, 2017, 11:16:53 am »
Also, not sure if You know the original report and he indeed misquoted me or - IMO even worse - gives a hint to a wrong conclusion:

1. My original report said nothing to manoeuvrability but I said "...at least until the planned WS-15 engine is available. In the meantime, the J-20's engines are probably adequate and will provide flight performance at least comparable to the latest J-11B fighter." (in quote 3)

Even worse he did not differ between a Su-27 and Su-33 ...

2. Also he implied another conclusion: “As for the development of a genuine 5th generation combat aircraft, China obviously has a long way to go.” This is an apparent reference to China’s problems developing advanced engines and avionics. (in quote 5) This was also meant regarding the still not available WS-15.

3. And finally ...  (in quote 8): Andreas Rupprecht writes “The J-20 is most likely no match for the F-22 and the F-35…” Again a misquote: My original sentence was ... "As regards to stealth the J-20 is most likely no match for the F-22 and the F-35 (see the non-stealthy engine exhaust, the uncovered countermeasures launchers and other details)."

Deino
« Last Edit: October 31, 2017, 11:19:22 pm by Deino »
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
...
For nothing now can ever come to any good.
-------------------------------------------------
W.H.Auden (1945)

Offline Triton

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #58 on: October 31, 2017, 05:08:34 pm »
"China's J-20 fifth-gen fighter moves into series production"
Reuben F Johnson - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
26 October 2017

Source:
http://www.janes.com/article/75232/china-s-j-20-fifth-gen-fighter-moves-into-series-production

Quote
Key Points

    The CAC J-20 fifth-generation fighter will soon move into series production, according to a CCTV report
    The type may be brought into service before achieving FOC

The Chengdu Aerospace Corporation (CAC) J-20 ‘fifth-generation’ multirole fighter will soon enter series production and is on a path towards achieving full operational capability (FOC) with the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), according to a 23 October report on China Central TV’s (CCTV) Channel 4, which is the military channel of the state-run broadcasting service.

The broadcast showed a group of five J-20s in formation, which is the largest number of the type seen flying simultaneously in any publicly viewed display.

The aircraft did make a brief ‘fly by’ appearance at last year’s Airshow China, held last November at Zhuhai in China’s Guangdong province, but there were only two aircraft in the flight display. Additionally, the aircraft were based at an aerodrome in nearby Foshan, so they never landed or were parked on the static display line at Zhuhai.

According to the CCTV report, the aircraft has entered what is referred to as “stable” mass production, which is interpreted as meaning there is now a fixed, regular production rate in order to create some minimal economies of scale. The production rate is expected to reach as much as three aircraft per month. Representatives of the company who spoke to CCTV reportedly said there should be more than 100 J-20s produced by the end of 2020....


Offline TomcatViP

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #59 on: November 01, 2017, 02:55:45 am »
3/month for such a project is impressive:
   - it's a large fighter
   - involving the utmost of Chinese tech from the last 5/10y with a very short time to adapt (and dev) to new and appropriate manufacturing techniques
   - It is a stealth airframe (think precision manufacturing of large seamless panels, coating etc...)

So this is interesting. If they stick to the plan, we will have 100+ fighters in less than 36 months, a very capable asset for tactical deterrence. No other country, outside of the US and F35 users will be able to match this in time, setting a new stepping stone and ground level among military.

This what the Fr head of Staff said when he mentioned in front of the defense commission the new reality: "we are now outpaced in technology where we should not and this is troubling".  (from my mem, please refer to proper source for an exact quote)
   

Offline LowObservable

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #60 on: November 01, 2017, 04:50:24 am »
First, you have my sympathy, Deino. You weren't the only one mis-cited or misquoted.

Second, 36 a month* by 2020 is another massive intelligence failure. Remember when Gates &co didn't expect any Chinese stealth fighters by 2020?

* [EDIT] 36/year. Morning coffee had not kicked in. However:

"Gates said in 2009 that China was not expected to have a fifth-generation aircraft by 2020 and no more than a handful by 2025."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-fighter/u-s-downplays-chinese-stealth-fighter-status-idUKTRE7042X820110105
« Last Edit: November 01, 2017, 09:43:16 am by LowObservable »

Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #61 on: November 01, 2017, 05:16:25 am »
36 J-20s a month?  (432/yr.) is higher than the highest F-16 build rate at the height of the Cold War.  I'll believe it when I see it.
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Offline Airplane

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #62 on: November 01, 2017, 05:47:02 am »
First, you have my sympathy, Deino. You weren't the only one mis-cited or misquoted.

Second, 36 a month by 2020 is another massive intelligence failure. Remember when Gates &co didn't expect any Chinese stealth fighters by 2020?

That was the argument to cancel the Raptor. It wasn't an intelligence failure... It was a lie.
"The test of success is not what you do when your on top. Success is how high you bounce when you hit bottom.”
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Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #63 on: November 01, 2017, 05:57:32 am »
First, you have my sympathy, Deino. You weren't the only one mis-cited or misquoted.

Second, 36 a month by 2020 is another massive intelligence failure. Remember when Gates &co didn't expect any Chinese stealth fighters by 2020?

That was the argument to cancel the Raptor. It wasn't an intelligence failure... It was a lie.

As I recall, at the time there was some question that Gordon England, who had a personal grudge with Lockheed, and was Gates' assistant, might have had some influence there.
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Offline RadicalDisconnect

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #64 on: November 02, 2017, 02:26:56 am »


J-20 and Su-35 together. Guess now we can finally take a ruler and measure the size?

Deino at SDF did a pixels measurement and the J-20 seems to be about 20.9 m long or 68.7 ft.


Offline Harrier

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #65 on: November 02, 2017, 02:36:29 am »
Second, 36 a month* by 2020 is another massive intelligence failure. Remember when Gates &co didn't expect any Chinese stealth fighters by 2020?

* [EDIT] 36/year. Morning coffee had not kicked in. However:

"Gates said in 2009 that China was not expected to have a fifth-generation aircraft by 2020 and no more than a handful by 2025."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-fighter/u-s-downplays-chinese-stealth-fighter-status-idUKTRE7042X820110105

One thing the Chinese seem not to have copied is Western project management/risk reduction etc.. Like Sydney Camm 'as quick as you bloody well can' seems to be the approach. And it seems to work.  I would imagine quicker also means much cheaper. Maybe other countries will pinch that from China?
BAe P.1216 Supersonic ASTOVL Aircraft: www.harrier.org.uk/P1216.htm

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Online latenlazy

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #66 on: November 02, 2017, 03:22:24 am »


J-20 and Su-35 together. Guess now we can finally take a ruler and measure the size?

Deino at SDF did a pixels measurement and the J-20 seems to be about 20.9 m long or 68.7 ft.



I personally think Deino slightly overestimated the length and slightly underestimated the wingspan. For the J-20 he chose to use (the one on the right) you can see the vertical tail extends further out than the stingers, but in the plane in the center this is not the case. This suggests some degree of distortion, where because the vertical tails are taller they're closer to the camera, and will seem bigger, which can make them look like they're extending out more. Because of that I would recommend using the stinger as the tip of the tail end of the plane and not the vertical tails. I'll also note that the Flanker in the center of the image is positioned slightly at an angle relative to the J-20s. If you draw a straight line from tip to tip of that Flanker both lengthwise and widthwise, that slight angle will have the effect of making the Flanker seem both shorter and wider than the J-20 than it actually is, which in turn will skew estimates of the J-20's dimensions toward longer and narrower. My recommendation would be to isolate the Flanker in the center and rotate it a half a degree or slightly more to straighten it up first before taking measures.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2017, 03:34:47 am by latenlazy »

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Offline LowObservable

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #68 on: November 02, 2017, 06:45:47 am »
Beware the wide-angle lens. There's distortion towards the edges of the image - note the outward "lean" of the J-11 tails. Even the pair of J-20s show different tail angles.

Say what you like about satellites... at least they're 500 kilometers up, which is as close to infinity as one needs to get. My guess is this was shot from a consumer drone.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2017, 06:51:18 am by LowObservable »

Offline Mat Parry

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #69 on: November 02, 2017, 06:55:44 am »
Beware the wide-angle lens. There's distortion towards the edges of the image - note the outward "lean" of the J-11 tails. Even the pair of J-20s show different tail angles.

The implication being that the J-11's appear longer in this photo than they are in reality? Resulting in an underestimation of the J-20 length?

Edit!
I've confused myself reading about barrel distortions... I think the J-11 at the edge of the photo would appear shorter than it actually is...
« Last Edit: November 02, 2017, 07:16:32 am by Mat Parry »

Offline starviking

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #70 on: November 02, 2017, 08:00:26 am »
Perhaps the square patterning on the runway could be used to provide some correction for distortion?

Offline Mat Parry

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #71 on: November 02, 2017, 08:38:52 am »
A very good point

Online latenlazy

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #72 on: November 02, 2017, 10:26:53 am »
Deino at SDF did a pixels measurement and the J-20 seems to be about 20.9 m long or 68.7 ft.

Heh.  I came up with 20.8m about year ago and was roundly poo-pooed.

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,15609.msg295664.html#msg295664

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,15609.msg295674.html#msg295674

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,15609.msg295723.html#msg295723
If you felt "poo-pooed" by my comment, then you should know that it was for your choice of methodology. Getting the estimate close doesn't change what a poor methodology arbitrarily trying to match feature sizes of two very different planes is.

Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #73 on: November 02, 2017, 10:44:10 am »
Deino at SDF did a pixels measurement and the J-20 seems to be about 20.9 m long or 68.7 ft.

Heh.  I came up with 20.8m about year ago and was roundly poo-pooed.

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,15609.msg295664.html#msg295664

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,15609.msg295674.html#msg295674

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,15609.msg295723.html#msg295723
If you felt "poo-pooed" by my comment, then you should know that it was for your choice of methodology. Getting the estimate close doesn't change what a poor methodology arbitrarily trying to match feature sizes of two very different planes is.

If you get the right answer then it wasn't a "poor methodology".  Not any worse than any others being used certainly.  "Two different planes" yes.  Two different canopies?  Nope.  Sure, I'd preferred to have a handy known item next to the J-20 to use for reference, but you use what you have.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2017, 10:50:41 am by sferrin »
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Offline Trident

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #74 on: November 02, 2017, 11:13:41 am »
Playing around with the image (using various J-16s and J-20s, rotating the middle J-16 before measuring it, comparing the pixel sizes of the 5x6 concrete slab arrays around the middle J-16 and middle J-20...) I get:

Length 20.9 +-0.1m
Span 12.9 +-0.1m

So yes, I would agree that Deino is underestimating span by a significant amount, but his result for length seems pretty accurate to me. As you might surmise from the fact that I'm providing error margins, I certainly don't think this image allows an estimate to within less than 0.2 to 0.1m anyway.

EDIT: I should perhaps add that I measured the J-20 from nose tip to tail shelf tip - looking at a couple of almost perfect beam photos of late J-20 prototypes (with the extended shelves), the fin TE tip is NOT the rear most point.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2017, 11:28:24 am by Trident »

Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #75 on: November 02, 2017, 11:41:44 am »
Another attempt ...   ;)  (left my previous try)

... problem is, the J-16 is a bit distorted and the J-20's radome-tip is not exactly visible.
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #76 on: November 02, 2017, 06:19:38 pm »
Deino at SDF did a pixels measurement and the J-20 seems to be about 20.9 m long or 68.7 ft.

Heh.  I came up with 20.8m about year ago and was roundly poo-pooed.

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,15609.msg295664.html#msg295664

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,15609.msg295674.html#msg295674

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,15609.msg295723.html#msg295723
If you felt "poo-pooed" by my comment, then you should know that it was for your choice of methodology. Getting the estimate close doesn't change what a poor methodology arbitrarily trying to match feature sizes of two very different planes is.

If you get the right answer then it wasn't a "poor methodology".  Not any worse than any others being used certainly.  "Two different planes" yes.  Two different canopies?  Nope.  Sure, I'd preferred to have a handy known item next to the J-20 to use for reference, but you use what you have.
Uhhh yeah that wouldn't fly in *any* of my science or math classes. You'd get zero points for getting the right answer with the wrong approach.

Oh they're the same canopies are they? Where's your evidence? Or is this one of those magical eyeball facts? Ever heard that it's often better to not presume if you don't have food facts?
« Last Edit: November 02, 2017, 06:21:29 pm by latenlazy »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #77 on: November 02, 2017, 08:33:37 pm »
my own take

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #78 on: November 03, 2017, 03:19:08 am »
You all did nice work. So At most it's about 21m or just as long as Flanker. and the wingspan is less.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #79 on: November 03, 2017, 03:35:31 am »
Okay, finally got my laptop with photoshop back. I straightened out both the Flanker and J-20 in the picture to the best of my abilities. For the Flanker I got 204 pixels for the length and 136 pixels for the wingspan (I included the wingtip pylons...wasn't sure whether the Flanker's wingspan should include that, but I figure it should since it's a staple of the design). For the J-20 I got 193 pixels for the length and 120 pixels for the wingspan. That makes the J-20 about 20.7~20.8 meters long, with a wingspan of just roughly 13 meters. I'll note though that if you try to retroactively reconstruct the lengths of the Flanker and J-20 using the wingspan estimates you will get 22.05 meters in length for the Flanker and 20.9 meters in length for the J-20. Do this exercise in reverse, and you get a wingspan of 14.62 meters for the Flanker and 12.9 meters for the J-20. At first I thought this was distortion, but more likely than not it's actually measurement error from the the low pixel count from the images. Every pixel contributes about 0.1 meters of error. Without higher quality pics this is about as close as we can get, I think.

I also tried to measure the angle of the J-20's leading and trailing edge sweeps. The leading edge seems to be about 48 degrees, though with the distortion and pixelation it was kind of hard to tell. My measurements varied between 47 degrees and 49 degrees for the three different planes in the original picture, so I figure all things considered with perspective and camera tilt the actual figure would probably be squarely in the middle. The same problems applied to the trailing edge, though I arrived at 12 degrees.

Using the sweep angles, we can use an alternative approach to calculating wing area other than the trapezoidal area method which might incur fewer measurement errors. This method breaks the reference wing into three sections—an isosceles triangle with the wingspan length as the base and equal opposite angles of the leading edge sweep (48 degrees), a long rectangle with the width of the wingspan and the height of the wingtip length, and another isosceles triangle with the the wingspan length as the base and equal opposite angles of the trailing edge (12 degrees).

When I tried the trapezoidal method I got a midchord length of 9.95 meters and a wingtip length of 1.6 meters. That equals an wing area of 75 m^2. Using the alternative method I'm suggesting, I got 46.92+8.98+20.8, which adds up to 76.7 m^2. The difference isn't big, but I think if we know the wingspan and the wingtip length we can save ourselves the trouble of trying to estimate yet another length since the wing sweep angles give us constants to work with.


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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #80 on: November 03, 2017, 03:41:41 am »
Uhhh yeah that wouldn't fly in *any* of my science or math classes. You'd get zero points for getting the right answer with the wrong approach.

Uhhh, just because *you* think it's the "wrong approach" doesn't make it so.  Maybe when you get out of school, and in the real world, you'll learn there's more than one "right" way to do a thing.  I came to the same conclusion your so-called "right" approach did.  That is not open to dispute.

Oh they're the same canopies are they? Where's your evidence? Or is this one of those magical eyeball facts? Ever heard that it's often better to not presume if you don't have food facts?

Go back and read the relevant threads.  It's been done to death here.  P.S. you should follow your own advice.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2017, 03:44:58 am by sferrin »
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #81 on: November 03, 2017, 03:46:38 am »
Uhhh yeah that wouldn't fly in *any* of my science or math classes. You'd get zero points for getting the right answer with the wrong approach.

Uhhh, just because *you* think it's the "wrong approach" doesn't make it so.  Maybe when you get out of school, and in the real world, you'll learn there's more than one "right" way to do a thing.
I've been out of school for years now, and have seen that attitude lead to many problems in my professional life...of course there are multiple "right" ways to do things, but they all entail sound reasoning behind their method. Arbitrarily choosing a standard ruler that you don't actually know with any certainty is a standard ruler doesn't count as a good method.

Quote

Go back and read the relevant threads.  It's been done to death here.
In case you forgot, I was a participant in those "relevant threads". Then, as now I asked people to provide evidence for their conjectures, and they all came empty handed, which basically renders those conjectures more or less baseless.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #82 on: November 03, 2017, 03:54:39 am »
I've been out of school for years now, and have seen that attitude lead to many problems in my professional life...of course there are multiple "right" ways to do things, but they all entail sound reasoning behind their method. Arbitrarily choosing a standard ruler that you don't actually know with any certainty is a standard ruler doesn't count as a good method.

There was nothing "arbitrary" about it.  It's what was available.  And in your "professional life" you should have also learned you don't always have the luxury of waiting until all the data is in, or a perfect solution is handed to you on a silver platter.  Sometimes you have to go with what you have and make the best of it.  You almost sound bitter that I got as close as I did. 

In case you forgot, I was a participant in those "relevant threads". Then, as now I asked people to provide evidence for their conjectures, and they all came empty handed, which basically renders those conjectures more or less baseless.

Then you weren't in the right threads.  I provided evidence.  If you require network logs showing a Chinese incursion into LM and subsequent Chinese CATIA files used to produce the J-20s canopy as your "standard" then I'm sorry, can't help you.  Feel free to continue ignoring the obvious just because it doesn't sit well with you.
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #83 on: November 03, 2017, 03:58:40 am »
All modern aircraft have four dimensions: span, length, height and Photoshop.
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #84 on: November 03, 2017, 04:06:44 am »
There was nothing "arbitrary" about it.  It's what was available.
Assuming that the canopies of two different planes have identical dimensions (their shapes aren't even congruent), and using an *illustration* rather than photos is pretty arbitrary.

Quote
And in your "professional life" you should have also learned you don't always have the luxury of waiting until all the data is in, or a perfect solution is handed to you on a silver platter.  Sometimes you have to go with what you have and make the best of it. 
In my professional life, when I have to make do I make the caveats very clear and don't assume the figures are any good (a lot of my work is data intensive). Besides, when you did your estimates we already had *two* other methods with known reference objects (the satellite pic and the truck in front of 2001 when the plane first came out, both of which yielded rather precise estimates).

Quote
You almost sound bitter that I got as close as I did.

Being a bit presumptuous there aren't we?

Quote
Then you weren't in the right threads.  I provided evidence.  If you require network logs showing a Chinese incursion into LM and subsequent Chinese CATIA files used to produce the J-20s canopy as your "standard" then I'm sorry, can't help you.  Feel free to continue ignoring the obvious just because it doesn't sit well with you.

Ah yes, of course. Because China hacked F-22 data, they chose to adopt the *exact* same canopy design dimensions and all, never mind that they were sticking it on a different plane with different dimensions. That's how engineering works after all. Just cut and paste. The "obvious" doesn't suggest what you may seem to think it does.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2017, 04:09:50 am by latenlazy »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #85 on: November 03, 2017, 04:20:38 am »
There was nothing "arbitrary" about it.  It's what was available.
Assuming that the canopies of two different planes have identical dimensions (their shapes aren't even congruent), and using an *illustration* rather than photos is pretty arbitrary.

Quote
And in your "professional life" you should have also learned you don't always have the luxury of waiting until all the data is in, or a perfect solution is handed to you on a silver platter.  Sometimes you have to go with what you have and make the best of it. 
In my professional life, when I have to make do I make the caveats very clear and don't assume the figures are any good (a lot of my work is data intensive). Besides, when you did your estimates we already had *two* other methods with known reference objects (the satellite pic and the truck in front of 2001 when the plane first came out, both of which yielded rather precise estimates).

Quote
You almost sound bitter that I got as close as I did.

Being a bit presumptuous there aren't we?

Quote
Then you weren't in the right threads.  I provided evidence.  If you require network logs showing a Chinese incursion into LM and subsequent Chinese CATIA files used to produce the J-20s canopy as your "standard" then I'm sorry, can't help you.  Feel free to continue ignoring the obvious just because it doesn't sit well with you.

Ah yes, of course. Because China hacked F-22 data, they chose to adopt the *exact* same canopy design dimensions and all, never mind that they were sticking it on a different plane with different dimensions. That's how engineering works after all. Just cut and paste. The "obvious" doesn't suggest what you may seem to think it does.

Ye Gods.  You're really bothered by this aren't you?  Let it go.  We'll just have to agree to disagree. 
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #86 on: November 03, 2017, 04:23:38 am »
There was nothing "arbitrary" about it.  It's what was available.
Assuming that the canopies of two different planes have identical dimensions (their shapes aren't even congruent), and using an *illustration* rather than photos is pretty arbitrary.

Quote
And in your "professional life" you should have also learned you don't always have the luxury of waiting until all the data is in, or a perfect solution is handed to you on a silver platter.  Sometimes you have to go with what you have and make the best of it. 
In my professional life, when I have to make do I make the caveats very clear and don't assume the figures are any good (a lot of my work is data intensive). Besides, when you did your estimates we already had *two* other methods with known reference objects (the satellite pic and the truck in front of 2001 when the plane first came out, both of which yielded rather precise estimates).

Quote
You almost sound bitter that I got as close as I did.

Being a bit presumptuous there aren't we?

Quote
Then you weren't in the right threads.  I provided evidence.  If you require network logs showing a Chinese incursion into LM and subsequent Chinese CATIA files used to produce the J-20s canopy as your "standard" then I'm sorry, can't help you.  Feel free to continue ignoring the obvious just because it doesn't sit well with you.

Ah yes, of course. Because China hacked F-22 data, they chose to adopt the *exact* same canopy design dimensions and all, never mind that they were sticking it on a different plane with different dimensions. That's how engineering works after all. Just cut and paste. The "obvious" doesn't suggest what you may seem to think it does.

Ye Gods.  You're really bothered by this aren't you?  Let it go.  We'll just have to agree to disagree.
Not really. I have a habit of pointing out bad logic when I see it though.

Besides, who dug up old posts to complain about being poo-pooed, exactly?  ::)
« Last Edit: November 03, 2017, 04:25:31 am by latenlazy »

Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #87 on: November 03, 2017, 04:31:24 am »
Not really. I have a habit of pointing out bad logic when I see it though.

And insulting those who disagree with you apparently as well.  The least you could do is not put words in my mouth.

Who dug up old posts to complain about being poo-pooed, exactly?  ::)

Which apparently triggered you into an extended fit.  And it wasn't a complaint, it was amusement. Now, can we put our big-boy pants on and let this little tiff go?
« Last Edit: November 03, 2017, 04:37:47 am by sferrin »
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #88 on: November 03, 2017, 04:38:50 am »

And insulting those who disagree with you apparently as well.  The least you could do not put words in my mouth.
You think questioning the quality of your arguments is insulting? Where did I put words in your mouth?

Who's sounding bitter now?

Quote
Which apparently triggered you into an extended fit.  And it wasn't a complaint, it was amusement. Now, can we put our big-boy pants on and let this little tiff go?
Ah, it takes two to tango friend. Anyways, I'll agree to let this one go here if you will.

Offline LowObservable

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #89 on: November 03, 2017, 06:41:33 am »
All modern aircraft have four dimensions: span, length, height and Photoshop.

Indeed. It seems I was about right on the length three years ago, but gave it a bit too much span, according to these photos. I can't put my hand on my notes right now so I am not sure why I did that.

Fortunately the important bit in this case is the length, and most particularly not the LOA but the length from nose tip to the ends of the exhausts.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #90 on: November 03, 2017, 01:37:46 pm »
Then you weren't in the right threads.  I provided evidence.  If you require network logs showing a Chinese incursion into LM and subsequent Chinese CATIA files used to produce the J-20s canopy as your "standard" then I'm sorry, can't help you.  Feel free to continue ignoring the obvious just because it doesn't sit well with you.

Considering how much all the burgeoning new stealth fighter programmes in Japan, SK, Turkey, India, are all looking increasingly like F-22/35, I actually think it's a fairly reasonable request, otherwise the only logical conclusion derived from your position is that all those nations have had access to Lockmart's inner sanctum as well...

Whereas in reality, as Reaper logically said in the Japanese next gen fighter thread:

Similar requirements + available technology result in similar looking concepts. And normally you pick the more conventional/proven configuration, since things get difficult at later development stages anyway (see X-35 vs X-32).
   


Actually, if you really want to argue your position, what you'd really want is some proof in Chinese networks indicating that they have actually integrated the data regarding F-35/22 attained by espionage, into developing their own fighters.

Hacking each other's networks should be no surprise -- I expect the US to have hacked CAC and AVIC to gain as much information about J-20 as China would have done for F-35/22. Cyber espionage is a thing, I don't think anyone disputes that.

But to argue for proof that one side has integrated the hacked info into their own product needs something a bit more substantial than "they look very similar," considering how many products of this category do seem to look very similar to each other.

Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #91 on: November 03, 2017, 02:50:38 pm »
Similar requirements + available technology result in similar looking concepts.

You mean like the YF-22 and YF-23?  Or the X-32 and X-35?  Or the F-16 and J-10?  Or the YF-16 and YF-17?  Or the A-9 and A-10? Or the Convair 200 and the XFV-12?  Or the Lockheed Blackbird and the Convair Kingfish?  If you really want to beat this dead horse, you're welcome to go look at all the previous threads.  It's all there. 
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #92 on: November 03, 2017, 02:51:23 pm »
All modern aircraft have four dimensions: span, length, height and Photoshop.

Indeed. It seems I was about right on the length three years ago, but gave it a bit too much span, according to these photos. I can't put my hand on my notes right now so I am not sure why I did that.

Fortunately the important bit in this case is the length, and most particularly not the LOA but the length from nose tip to the ends of the exhausts.
If I recall correctly you and I both put the span at somewhere around 13.5 meters. Given that we were working with satellite photos that was entirely within the very large margin of error we had. That said, I think there's still an off chance that the wingspan might be a bit bigger than 13 meters given the potential for different image distortions. Given the margins of error we're working with a difference of 1 or 2 pixels can skew measurements just enough to be of notice.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #93 on: November 03, 2017, 02:53:31 pm »
Similar requirements + available technology result in similar looking concepts.

You mean like the YF-22 and YF-23?  Or the X-32 and X-35?  Or the F-16 and J-10?  Or the YF-16 and YF-17?  Or the A-9 and A-10? Or the Convair 200 and the XFV-12?  Or the Lockheed Blackbird and the Convair Kingfish?  If you really want to beat this dead horse, you're welcome to go look at all the previous threads.  It's all there.
Nothing will stop a man from insisting that a cat and a dog are uncannily similar if they're committed to the notion.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #94 on: November 03, 2017, 03:07:41 pm »
Clearly China has had an effective cyber-espionage program for many years.

Unfortunately, Western programs have expanded their attack surface by forming worldwide networks of small companies to build political support, and some of these have not been as cyber-aware as they should be.

However, when it comes to appearances: as the man said, stealth is "shape, shape, shape and materials", so high-rez photos tell their own story. And finally, there are advantages to being the "fast follower" rather than the trail-breaker.

Conclusion: cyber-exploits have probably helped, but in areas we can't see in photos.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #95 on: November 03, 2017, 03:17:52 pm »
Clearly China has had an effective cyber-espionage program for many years.

Unfortunately, Western programs have expanded their attack surface by forming worldwide networks of small companies to build political support, and some of these have not been as cyber-aware as they should be.

However, when it comes to appearances: as the man said, stealth is "shape, shape, shape and materials", so high-rez photos tell their own story. And finally, there are advantages to being the "fast follower" rather than the trail-breaker.

Conclusion: cyber-exploits have probably helped, but in areas we can't see in photos.

I have no doubt espionahe helped immensely, but the idea that entire parts were copied to the letter reflects a caveman's understanding of engineering. If the espionage is for improving your own technology, the value is in the basic research and science that stolen designs can tell you, not the particular solutions that were derived from that body of knowledge. China is very clearly inventing their own solutions at this point. Anything they've taken from other countries emerges digested and reformulated when employed into their own designs. That doesn't mean they didn't benefit immensely from stolen information. It just means they're not as crude and unsophisticated in their efforts as some would like imply. No matter how much they benefited from stolen knowledge they still built a different plane.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2017, 03:19:42 pm by latenlazy »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #96 on: November 03, 2017, 03:27:09 pm »
Similar requirements + available technology result in similar looking concepts.

You mean like the YF-22 and YF-23?  Or the X-32 and X-35?  Or the F-16 and J-10?  Or the YF-16 and YF-17?  Or the A-9 and A-10? Or the Convair 200 and the XFV-12?  Or the Lockheed Blackbird and the Convair Kingfish?  If you really want to beat this dead horse, you're welcome to go look at all the previous threads.  It's all there.

Or how about KFX, F-3, TFX, AMCA, FC-31...?


Keep in mind, I'm not saying that there is 0 chance of any hacked F-35 or F-22 info that could've been used in FC-31 or J-20, but I am saying that if the foundation of that argument is because J-20 and FC-31 look very similar to F-35 and F-22 then the argument is a very weak one, when considering how all the other nation's stealth fighter programmes also look like F-35 and F-22.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #97 on: November 03, 2017, 03:31:36 pm »
Clearly China has had an effective cyber-espionage program for many years.

Unfortunately, Western programs have expanded their attack surface by forming worldwide networks of small companies to build political support, and some of these have not been as cyber-aware as they should be.

However, when it comes to appearances: as the man said, stealth is "shape, shape, shape and materials", so high-rez photos tell their own story. And finally, there are advantages to being the "fast follower" rather than the trail-breaker.

Conclusion: cyber-exploits have probably helped, but in areas we can't see in photos.

I think that is a reasonable argument. Either directly or indirectly I expect the espionage has helped to inform and accelerate China's stealth programmes to some degree.


I just find the argument of "they look similar therefore it's proof they've applied hacked data" to be flimsy.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #98 on: November 03, 2017, 10:10:32 pm »
Well in the case of the J-11 it was more than just "looking similar" so they do have a history of directly copying whatever they can.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #99 on: November 03, 2017, 11:00:35 pm »
Well in the case of the J-11 it was more than just "looking similar" so they do have a history of directly copying whatever they can.
In the case of the J-11 the entire internals of the plane were reworked.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #100 on: November 03, 2017, 11:09:13 pm »
Well in the case of the J-11 it was more than just "looking similar" so they do have a history of directly copying whatever they can.

There are many more examples of REing products -- J-15, Z-8, Z-9, Y-8, H-6, J-7 etc depending on how far you want to go back.


But we're talking about J-20 and FC-31 here.
Unless a person is going into it with the prior assumption of "it's a Chinese product, therefore it must involve copying in some form," then I can't see how one could use the basis of similar appearances to argue that hacked information was used, given how similar all other stealth fighters under development look to F-35/22.


Or I suppose a better question is, do they deserve the benefit of doubt for each individual product in a case by case basis unless otherwise suggested -- or is an inference going to be made based on past products that all Chinese products involve copying and thus presume that it will be involved for every other product of theirs in the present and in the future unless proven otherwise?

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #101 on: November 04, 2017, 03:14:42 am »
Clearly China has had an effective cyber-espionage program for many years.

Unfortunately, Western programs have expanded their attack surface by forming worldwide networks of small companies to build political support, and some of these have not been as cyber-aware as they should be.

However, when it comes to appearances: as the man said, stealth is "shape, shape, shape and materials", so high-rez photos tell their own story. And finally, there are advantages to being the "fast follower" rather than the trail-breaker.

Conclusion: cyber-exploits have probably helped, but in areas we can't see in photos.

I think that is a reasonable argument. Either directly or indirectly I expect the espionage has helped to inform and accelerate China's stealth programmes to some degree.


I just find the argument of "they look similar therefore it's proof they've applied hacked data" to be flimsy.

Agreed.
The Chinese aviation industry will have learned from its international contemporaries from various legitimate and not-so-legitimate information sources. It will also have learned from its own experience and research.
The fruits of this collective knowledge is then seen in its products.
For example, in a different time and context, the variable inlets of the J-8 II probably owe a lot to Egyptian MIG-23s sold to China. But it’s massively simplistic to say that these inlets (or the overall J-8 II) is a copy of the MIG-23; they’ll be a whole lot of information and experience from other sources involved.

In any case historic claims of one country copying (without license production or similar intentional consensual technical exchange) another countries aircraft have tended to be exaggerated and overblown; how many times were Cold-War Soviet aircraft inaccurately described as copies of Western equivalents?
In the Cold War such claims tended to relate at least as much to a psychological need to minimize an adversaries perceived technical skill and capabilities (while trying to maintain a sense of your own aviation industry’s superiority) as it did to any legitimate examples of espionage.
Such propaganda said a lot about the propagandist.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2017, 07:31:35 am by kaiserd »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #102 on: November 04, 2017, 05:06:05 am »
But we're talking about J-20 and FC-31 here.

I never said anything about the FC-31 but was speaking of the J-20 specifically (and not the newer ones with the new canopy).
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #103 on: November 04, 2017, 05:07:41 am »
Well in the case of the J-11 it was more than just "looking similar" so they do have a history of directly copying whatever they can.

There are many more examples of REing products -- J-15, Z-8, Z-9, Y-8, H-6, J-7 etc depending on how far you want to go back.

If you go into other areas you can add the RAM (short range naval SAM), Goalkeeper, Mk41 VLS (hell, many of the bolt patterns are even the same on that one), S-300, Brahmos, etc. etc. etc.
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #104 on: November 04, 2017, 01:34:26 pm »
But we're talking about J-20 and FC-31 here.

I never said anything about the FC-31 but was speaking of the J-20 specifically (and not the newer ones with the new canopy).

My argument still stands.

Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #105 on: November 04, 2017, 02:34:46 pm »
But we're talking about J-20 and FC-31 here.

I never said anything about the FC-31 but was speaking of the J-20 specifically (and not the newer ones with the new canopy).

My argument still stands.

Not really.  Short of getting your hands on the Chinese CATIA files, and throwing them into the LM files for comparison, you're not going to get better.  And if that's your metric for "not flimsy" then nobody ever copied anybody, which obviously isn't the case.   

« Last Edit: November 04, 2017, 03:19:06 pm by sferrin »
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #106 on: November 04, 2017, 04:00:06 pm »
But we're talking about J-20 and FC-31 here.

I never said anything about the FC-31 but was speaking of the J-20 specifically (and not the newer ones with the new canopy).

My argument still stands.

Not really.  Short of getting your hands on the Chinese CATIA files, and throwing them into the LM files for comparison, you're not going to get better.  And if that's your metric for "not flimsy" then nobody ever copied anybody, which obviously isn't the case.


I think that's a pretty reasonable burden of proof that your argument demands.


But at the very least, the premise of merely looking similar is a flimsy one for your conclusion... unless you want to go into it with the presumption leaning towards "guilty until proven innocent" rather than "innocent until proven guilty".

Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #107 on: November 04, 2017, 04:14:45 pm »
But at the very least, the premise of merely looking similar is a flimsy one for your conclusion... unless you want to go into it with the presumption leaning towards "guilty until proven innocent" rather than "innocent until proven guilty".

So let's hear what your criteria would be for "a virtual certainty they based A on B", short of engineering files.   I'm all for making a convincing argument but some would be satisfied with nothing short of engineering drawings. 
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #108 on: November 04, 2017, 04:22:52 pm »
Well in the case of the J-11 it was more than just "looking similar" so they do have a history of directly copying whatever they can.

There are many more examples of REing products -- J-15, Z-8, Z-9, Y-8, H-6, J-7 etc depending on how far you want to go back.

If you go into other areas you can add the RAM (short range naval SAM), Goalkeeper, Mk41 VLS (hell, many of the bolt patterns are even the same on that one), S-300, Brahmos, etc. etc. etc.

HQ-10, sort of not really -- the missile itself traces a different lineage to RIM-116. The launcher and concept is very similar, but that's about it. The HQ-10 missile itself doesn't even roll like the RAM does afaik.

Type 730, sort of not really -- they had assessed the samos system back in the day, which probably provided the basis for Type 730 and Type 1130 afterwards to be developed. Advancement of the samos derivative and adding on their own FCS incidentally led to a similar configuration to goalkeeper, but you'd be hard pressed to argue it's a goalkeeper copy.

VLS -- lol if only the 054A's VLS was as large as the Mk-41 VLS, then they possibly wouldn't have had to develop the new universal VLS for 052D/055.

HQ-9 -- probably the closest one could come to arguing it is a copy of S-300, in the same manner that HQ-16 is a copy of Shtil, though both are systems which are significantly modified from their original versions that were imported not only internally but externally as well.

CX-1 -- multiple supersonic AShMs of Russian descent or influence adopt that kind of configuration.


There are more solid examples of direct copying that are easier to demonstrate in a black and white way which I listed in my previous post, but the systems you list stand on much more shaky ground which are from a much more recent era compared the most of the ones I listed, back in the day when actual full RE and copying was still the primary mode of acquiring new systems.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #109 on: November 04, 2017, 04:30:58 pm »
But at the very least, the premise of merely looking similar is a flimsy one for your conclusion... unless you want to go into it with the presumption leaning towards "guilty until proven innocent" rather than "innocent until proven guilty".

So let's hear what your criteria would be for "a virtual certainty they based A on B", short of engineering files.   I'm all for making a convincing argument but some would be satisfied with nothing short of engineering drawings.

"Based A on B" is a loose way of describing it.
I'm sure that CAC designed J-20's canopy based on and derived from what they saw on F-22's canopy, which wasn't exactly difficult given the amount of public images and appearances that F-22 made over the years.


But from what I understand, your argument is that they integrated hacked data from F-22/35 into the J-20's development process or design, based on the appearance of say, the canopy, which IMO is a different claim to make.
So, in my last reply I expressed that I believe engineering drawings would be a reasonable level of proof for the claim you're making.
That would be my criteria. Or perhaps, if we had some sort of internal correspondence in AVIC or CAC along the lines of "we hacked F-22's canopy, let's use it on J-20".

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #110 on: November 04, 2017, 08:18:06 pm »
VLS -- lol if only the 054A's VLS was as large as the Mk-41 VLS, then they possibly wouldn't have had to develop the new universal VLS for 052D/055.

Jeez, and here I thought we were having a serious discussion.  Ah well.  For your perusal, two completely unique VLS systems:

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #111 on: November 04, 2017, 08:49:34 pm »
VLS -- lol if only the 054A's VLS was as large as the Mk-41 VLS, then they possibly wouldn't have had to develop the new universal VLS for 052D/055.

Jeez, and here I thought we were having a serious discussion.  Ah well.  For your perusal, two completely unique VLS systems:

And I thought we were too.

As far as eight grid hot launch module with a central vent can look unique from their deck top appearance -- yeah there are differences we can see just by eyeballing.


If you want to push your case, you're better off trying to find evidence about how both are the same size, dimensions, with the same under deck structure, launch control units, if you can get it. If the location of four bolts for each module is your argument that they are identical systems then I half expect you to argue the 052D and Burke are the same ship class because both have their radar arrays in the same configuration around their deckhouse.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #112 on: November 04, 2017, 11:16:31 pm »
Released on October 20, 2017 from PLAAF weibo social media account of four J-20 stealth fighter jets flying in formation.

Source:
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/j-20-5th-gen-fighter-thread-vi.t8169/page-44
« Last Edit: November 04, 2017, 11:52:26 pm by Triton »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #113 on: November 05, 2017, 01:13:46 am »
If you want to push your case, you're better off trying to find evidence about how both are the same size, dimensions, with the same under deck structure, launch control units, if you can get it. If the location of four bolts for each module is your argument that they are identical systems then I half expect you to argue the 052D and Burke are the same ship class because both have their radar arrays in the same configuration around their deckhouse.

And that's just it.  You're not going to come up with the same bolt patterns in the same locations on the same design by chance.  Sure, they used socket-head caps instead of hex head, and changed a few minor details but it's obvious they started with the real deal and worked from that.  If you don't want to believe that, that's fine with me.  Frankly I don't care.
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #114 on: November 05, 2017, 01:37:23 am »
Released on October 20, 2017 from PLAAF weibo social media account of four J-20 stealth fighter jets flying in formation.

Source:
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/j-20-5th-gen-fighter-thread-vi.t8169/page-44

Here even 5.
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #115 on: November 05, 2017, 01:14:43 am »
So The good value we can work for to the dimension of J-20's are about 21 meter length and 13 meters of wingspan. is that so ?

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #116 on: November 05, 2017, 01:48:27 am »
VLS -- lol if only the 054A's VLS was as large as the Mk-41 VLS, then they possibly wouldn't have had to develop the new universal VLS for 052D/055.

Jeez, and here I thought we were having a serious discussion.  Ah well.  For your perusal, two completely unique VLS systems:

By your logic did the French (and British & Italians) also “copy” the US with their VLS system;
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sylver_Vertical_Launching_System
(I am not pretending to be a VLS expert, for a good explanation of the differences between these system please see http://ukarmedforcescommentary.blogspot.ie/2013/10/vertical-launching-systems-and-type-26.html?m=1).
Did the Europeans copy the US? Did the Chinese copy the US or the Europeans, or neither or both?
Or does similar technology end up looking similar because different parties are looking for very similar solutions for very similar problems, and are more likely to go for solutions that have previously been proven?

By your logic it would seem every US jet engine is a copy of British jet engines and every US jet aircraft is a copy of WW2 German aircraft because both historically incorporate a lot of technical research data, experience etc. from these non-US sources. And every aircraft flying today is a rip-off of the Wright Brothers.

No one is denying that the Chinese have and continue to undertake a lot of cyber espionage (likely all the major and some of the more minor powers do, if not to the same scale). If you have an issue with that perhaps another topic room or forum is the best place to expand on this.
By hook or by crook they will have learned from the lessons that lead up to and include the F-22 and F-35 and other contemporary advanced aircraft projects (probably including the likes of the Super Hornet, Eurofighter Typhoon, Rafale etc.) and are further down the road then they would otherwise have been with their own projects like the J-20. And they may apply certain identical technical solutions to specific issues or specific aspects of design.
But attempting to label emergent Chinese aircraft designs as “copies” is not accurate in this context.

We can have an interesting sociological conversation on why in specific contexts there is a drive by members of one group to downplay the abilities and achievements of members of another group, if you would like. Again probably best done in another topic room or forum.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2017, 01:50:43 am by kaiserd »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #117 on: November 05, 2017, 02:43:07 am »
But we're talking about J-20 and FC-31 here.

I never said anything about the FC-31 but was speaking of the J-20 specifically (and not the newer ones with the new canopy).

My argument still stands.

Not really.  Short of getting your hands on the Chinese CATIA files, and throwing them into the LM files for comparison, you're not going to get better.  And if that's your metric for "not flimsy" then nobody ever copied anybody, which obviously isn't the case.
We don’t need to go that far. Your specific claim, unless you’re moving the goalpost, was that the J-20’s canopy was *identical* to the F-22’s. Not *derived*, but *identical*. Comparing exact shape and measure of both canopies (no eyeballing here) would be a very direct way to either disprove or provide strong evidence for that point. The original claim was not a loose claim by any means. It is a very sweeping and specific one, so the burden of proof is commensurate. It is *not* obviously the case that there was some copying going on. We have no reason to doubt a lot of data was stolen. We do not have cause to narrow down how that information was used. If copying was so evident...then we’d be seeing copying wouldn’t we? Why isn’t China putting together F119s or churning out their own F-22’s? The definition of copying is pretty specific, after all.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #118 on: November 05, 2017, 01:52:11 pm »
If you want to push your case, you're better off trying to find evidence about how both are the same size, dimensions, with the same under deck structure, launch control units, if you can get it. If the location of four bolts for each module is your argument that they are identical systems then I half expect you to argue the 052D and Burke are the same ship class because both have their radar arrays in the same configuration around their deckhouse.

And that's just it.  You're not going to come up with the same bolt patterns in the same locations on the same design by chance.  Sure, they used socket-head caps instead of hex head, and changed a few minor details but it's obvious they started with the real deal and worked from that.  If you don't want to believe that, that's fine with me.  Frankly I don't care.

Really? Four bolts in each corner of each eight cell module in two VLS designs means one must be a copy of the other?

Are you serious?

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #119 on: November 07, 2017, 03:30:48 am »
new pics

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #120 on: November 07, 2017, 03:38:53 am »
Flow visualization!

Is the aircraft in the upper two images actually inverted?

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #121 on: November 07, 2017, 04:07:11 pm »
Flow visualization!

Is the aircraft in the upper two images actually inverted?
Nope, completely different angles. The top one is from last year’s Zhuhai Airshow. The bottom one is presumed to be from testing. We have a few other photos that give us some sense of the plane’s  vortical flow patterns.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #122 on: November 09, 2017, 11:47:33 pm »
Better now ?? (via SDF)

He was my North, my South, my East and West,
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #123 on: November 10, 2017, 04:53:48 am »




A couple of thoughts.

1) I think the centre J-20 is at a very slight angle to the runway centreline.

2) The varying distortion can be seen if you look at the open canopies. Slight on the rear J-20 pair, marked on the right-rear J-16.

3) The difference in distortion on the rear J-20 canopies (n.b. not the mirroring, the fact the mirroring isn't identical), despite both aircraft being aligned on equivalent runway block joints, seems to indicate the camera aimpoint was slightly off the centreline.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2017, 04:57:41 am by DWG »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #124 on: November 10, 2017, 09:10:58 am »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #125 on: November 10, 2017, 09:54:37 am »
Regardless of method, it won't be that precise with photo analysis. 12.9m span, 20.9m length is the estimate.
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #126 on: November 10, 2017, 02:56:09 pm »
Better now ?? (via SDF)

Selecting the right photo is good  :)

For future reference and anyone else who is not aware:
« Last Edit: November 20, 2017, 06:02:54 am by flateric »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #127 on: November 10, 2017, 03:15:32 pm »
Humm.... Sat alt should turn metric perspective flat... Deino, sorry but this view is... a fake  :-\

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #128 on: November 10, 2017, 03:21:44 pm »
Humm.... Sat alt should turn metric perspective flat... Deino, sorry but this view is... a fake  :-\

The photo was taken from a drone, not a satellite  ;D

c'mon, not that hard to figure out...

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #129 on: November 10, 2017, 07:53:27 pm »
Humm.... Sat alt should turn metric perspective flat... Deino, sorry but this view is... a fake  :-\

That's not from a satellite.  Probably from a quad-rotor "drone".
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #130 on: November 11, 2017, 11:47:27 am »
Pretty obvious from the start, hence the argy about measurements from lower-rez satellite photos. Not only is this from a wide-angle lens, but to add to the fun it looks as if it might be a non-symmetrical crop.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #131 on: November 11, 2017, 01:28:14 pm »
Pretty obvious from the start, hence the argy about measurements from lower-rez satellite photos. Not only is this from a wide-angle lens, but to add to the fun it looks as if it might be a non-symmetrical crop.

There are *lots* of problems with using this picture to get measurements, but until we have something better this the best we can do.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #132 on: November 11, 2017, 02:39:26 pm »
Pretty obvious from the start, hence the argy about measurements from lower-rez satellite photos. Not only is this from a wide-angle lens, but to add to the fun it looks as if it might be a non-symmetrical crop.

Could be an after effect.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2017, 02:57:47 pm by TomcatViP »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #133 on: November 19, 2017, 03:13:45 pm »


« Last Edit: November 21, 2017, 05:00:46 pm by sferrin »
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #134 on: December 11, 2017, 05:11:40 pm »
Awesome.
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #135 on: December 11, 2017, 05:35:35 pm »
Awesome.

Every time I see a pic of that plane it just looks so godly oversize... Its like an f-22 went on a cycle of nandrolone and testosterone. But as I understand its that big because its an uber long range power projection tool.

Has anyone, some whiz kid, done a hypothetical rcs calculation?

Forgive a naive question, but have the chicoms ever announced the total planned buy?
« Last Edit: December 11, 2017, 05:39:20 pm by Airplane »
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #136 on: December 11, 2017, 10:01:56 pm »
Awesome.

Every time I see a pic of that plane it just looks so godly oversize... Its like an f-22 went on a cycle of nandrolone and testosterone. But as I understand its that big because its an uber long range power projection tool.

Considering the aircraft is basically meant to be an F-22 with longer range... it shouldn't be a surprise.

If anything, when thinking about the westpac threat environment that both sides will face and the likely dearth of air refuellers and forward air bases, imo it is the F-22 which looks small and under sized for that area of operation rather than J-20 as over sized.



Quote
Has anyone, some whiz kid, done a hypothetical rcs calculation?

Depends on what your opinion of Carlo Kopp is.


Quote
Forgive a naive question, but have the chicoms ever announced the total planned buy?

Nope. if they did that would be an exception to the rule.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #137 on: December 12, 2017, 05:18:28 pm »
Awesome.

Every time I see a pic of that plane it just looks so godly oversize... Its like an f-22 went on a cycle of nandrolone and testosterone. But as I understand its that big because its an uber long range power projection tool.

Considering the aircraft is basically meant to be an F-22 with longer range... it shouldn't be a surprise.

If anything, when thinking about the westpac threat environment that both sides will face and the likely dearth of air refuellers and forward air bases, imo it is the F-22 which looks small and under sized for that area of operation rather than J-20 as over sized.

The F-22 was designed for the NATO theater which is much smaller.  A shame they could never get four tanks working on the F-22.  FB-22-1 below would have been more useful for the Pacific theater.

Four EFTs would be helpful in enhancing ferry range to theatre, but I'm not sure about operating in theatre with EFTs during combat missions for a stealth aircraft.

J-20 can carry four EFTs and I would be surprised if it ever carries them outside of Chinese airspace defended by IADS during a high end conflict.


In any case, I think between the YF-22 and YF-23, the latter's greater size and longer range would've made it more suitable for the pacific theatre that we see now.
The J-20 IMO is very much the result of an aircraft that wants to be able to compete with F-22 as close as it can get in certain performance parameters while exceeding it in endurance and range.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #138 on: December 13, 2017, 08:22:16 am »
Off-topic posts deleted ... X-44, FB-22 and PCA are all irrelevant to the J-20.

Stay on topic please.

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Offline Triton

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #139 on: February 12, 2018, 02:06:52 pm »
"China appears to have rushed its J-20 stealth fighter into service with an 'embarrassing' flaw"
by Alex Lockie

February 12, 2018

Source:
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-j-20-stealth-jet-fighter-rushed-embarrassing-flaw-2018-2

Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #140 on: February 12, 2018, 02:45:39 pm »
As soon as they fix the engine they're back in business.  Even with the original engines they'll still be a headache for the West.

(Nice turn there at 0:24)

« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 02:50:40 pm by sferrin »
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #141 on: February 12, 2018, 02:54:37 pm »
That all depends on it the "stealth" is any good, how good the LPI modes of the radar are, and how well the electronics can stay EMCON (ie don't leak).
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Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #142 on: February 12, 2018, 03:05:33 pm »
That all depends on it the "stealth" is any good, how good the LPI modes of the radar are, and how well the electronics can stay EMCON (ie don't leak).

Yes, but I can't imagine it's not better than the Su-35. 
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Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #143 on: February 12, 2018, 04:45:48 pm »
More pics.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 05:45:55 pm by sferrin »
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #144 on: February 13, 2018, 03:08:08 pm »
Could be  those looking for the antecedents to the J-20 should be looking in Moscow not  Fort Worth

As this article  which  is quoting long time British  expert Jim Smith and is  in Hushkit shows this comparison with the MiG  1.44 tactical fighter design of the 1990s. It first flew in 2000.

"The theory goes that China bought research data and possibly worked with MiG to create the J-20."

https://hushkit.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/j-20-mig-144.jpg?w=830

Of course the forward fuselage is  completely different
"The J-20 uses the Lockheed Martin model for reduced radar conspicuity. The Raptor-like forward fuselage, angle alignment and F-35-style inlets are a far cry from the squashed forward fuselage and underslung box intake arrangement of the MiG....... Not everything can be judged from the outline of an aircraft, and is possible that much in the way of internal structure or materials was directly informed by the Russian aircraft."

The rest of the article here
https://hushkit.net/2018/01/03/ask-the-expert-what-does-the-j-20s-configuration-reveal/


Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #145 on: February 13, 2018, 04:19:12 pm »
LM for the tech and shaping, Russia for the overall design.  (Yes, yes, China has competent engineers.)
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #146 on: February 13, 2018, 04:32:12 pm »
...
J-20 can carry four EFTs and I would be surprised if it ever carries them outside of Chinese airspace defended by IADS during a high end conflict.


In any case, I think between the YF-22 and YF-23, the latter's greater size and longer range would've made it more suitable for the pacific theatre that we see now.
...
To be fair, I am not even sure if unrefueled range of J-20 is that large to call it especially long-legged, heavy usage of EFTs for clearly non-frontline configuration sujests it can be actually not that large.
Otherwise, why so many? Addition of this capability doesn't come for free.


The further, the more it seems what J-20 is quite pure air superiority bird with only secondary a2g or anything else.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #147 on: February 13, 2018, 06:13:16 pm »
Smith thinks the particular configuration - the delta- allows more fuel and a  broad  under fuselage  gives  a longer weapons bay.

  And looking at the Chinese  strategic outlook anti ship missiles are going to go hand in hand with long range  or if you are  thinking of  anti air weapons, then long range missiles against  AWACS or tankers come into the picture.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #148 on: February 13, 2018, 08:45:09 pm »
Chinise are already familiar with canard delta configuration

because of j10. j20 seems like twin stealth ver. of j10 to me.

base of j10 is LAVI not mig 1.44.

my speculation is not official.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #149 on: February 13, 2018, 10:10:14 pm »
So completely different in scale to  J-10.

Historically China  has a culture of  copying other designs ( yet likely their engineers are just as competant as other countries, maybe just to  hurry  development along which happened with the  MDD F18 versions).
Best example is the  JF-17 which can be traced back via earlier version to the Mig -21. And even then they had help from Grumman for the modifications to move  inlet from nose to wing roots

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #150 on: February 14, 2018, 05:47:52 am »
Smith thinks the particular configuration - the delta- allows more fuel and a  broad  under fuselage  gives  a longer weapons bay.
But it's Bay is as long as it's necessary to comfortably fit current bwr missiles(pl-15).
Heavy usage of dtop tanks(as well as proliferation of Flanker family) sujests what internal range isn't that great either.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #151 on: February 14, 2018, 11:41:56 am »
I dont think Ive seen a photo of the J-20 with drop tanks ?

And this  comparison image  of the J-20 with Su-27 , Pak-FA and F-22 shows its a bigger plane than the F-22, and along with  commentary of the design expert I mentioned, supports the  large  internal fuel.

https://i1.wp.com/fightersweep.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/size-chart.jpg?resize=1024%2C516&ssl=1

Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #152 on: February 14, 2018, 11:56:40 am »
I dont think Ive seen a photo of the J-20 with drop tanks ?

See page 2 of this topic.
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #153 on: February 14, 2018, 01:36:07 pm »
Have seen the pictures months ago and pondering them...seems like the Chinese want "Global self-deployment" capability. J-20 can Ferry itself anywhere without a refuel? Range and fuel fraction alone clean is probably higher than any other 5th Gen machine out there.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #154 on: February 14, 2018, 07:57:50 pm »
I dont think Ive seen a photo of the J-20 with drop tanks ?

And this  comparison image  of the J-20 with Su-27 , Pak-FA and F-22 shows its a bigger plane than the F-22, and along with  commentary of the design expert I mentioned, supports the  large  internal fuel.

https://i1.wp.com/fightersweep.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/size-chart.jpg?resize=1024%2C516&ssl=1

That comparison image was one of the first made back when prototype 2001 came out and nobody knew how big it really was. In other words, that comparison is wrong.

This one from CSIS is much more accurate.


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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #155 on: February 14, 2018, 08:02:19 pm »
...
J-20 can carry four EFTs and I would be surprised if it ever carries them outside of Chinese airspace defended by IADS during a high end conflict.


In any case, I think between the YF-22 and YF-23, the latter's greater size and longer range would've made it more suitable for the pacific theatre that we see now.
...
To be fair, I am not even sure if unrefueled range of J-20 is that large to call it especially long-legged, heavy usage of EFTs for clearly non-frontline configuration sujests it can be actually not that large.
Otherwise, why so many? Addition of this capability doesn't come for free.


The further, the more it seems what J-20 is quite pure air superiority bird with only secondary a2g or anything else.

I'm not sure what you mean by "heavy usage of EFTs for clearly non-frontline configuration".

As you describe, four EFTs are obviously a non-frontline configuration, meaning the addition of those four EFTs is for other purposes, such as ferry in safe environments. There will obviously be situations where having four EFTs may be useful, and it makes sense to flight test that configuration.

Whether an aircraft is able to carry four or two EFTs or whatever I think should have no implication for what we estimate its internal fuel capacity is.

Offline Ainen

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #156 on: February 14, 2018, 11:27:31 pm »
Whether an aircraft is able to carry four or two EFTs or whatever I think should have no implication for what we estimate its internal fuel capacity is.
Ability to carry 4 fuel tanks requires additional complication of fuel system.
No one will do it without a proper reason. Even more so for a 5th generation fighter.

Simplest possible reason is a ferry range, of which they want really a lot(5500 was quoted by Xinhua).
Without these EFTs we just drop 8+t of fuel out of equation. Which basically is a full Raptor worth of fuel.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #157 on: February 15, 2018, 12:19:57 am »
F-22 is internally configured to carry up to four tanks. But in the end they never tested for four, only two.
F-35 is plumbed for two tanks, never tested though.
Su-35 same as above, two tanks, never tested.

Range is certainly something Chinese require as A) they gravely lack in air refueling capacity, and B) their operational requirements likely include ability to operate at first island chain line, meaning up to 450 nm away from coastline. If one wishes to operate from bases more inland, to protect them from enemy attacks, that may add further few hundred nm to range requirement.

I will repeat one of my older posts:
My personal volume measurements (from available images and scaling j-20 to be 20,5 m long) say Raptor is around 46 cubic meters while J-20 is around 56 cubic meters. If true, that'd be some 20% larger. How much of it is useful? Who knows... Longer intake ducts would eat up a large portion, i'd say 4-5 cubic meters. Larger weapon bays should take around 1 more cubic meters. Internal structure could go either way, though. Future engines might be a bit larger but who's to know. Anyway, I'd say there might be room for 3-5 cubic meters of internal fuel, over the volume F-22 has.

So i don't believe it's implausible J-20 carries 35% more fuel than F-22 internally, if not more.  The four tanks seen would add to that. They seem to be sized pretty close to US 600 gallon tanks, so that would add another 7+ tons. Of course, actual range is hard to predict, fuel consumption may be somewhat worse than F-22.
 
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Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #158 on: February 15, 2018, 05:13:12 am »
So i don't believe it's implausible J-20 carries 35% more fuel than F-22 internally, if not more.  The four tanks seen would add to that. They seem to be sized pretty close to US 600 gallon tanks, so that would add another 7+ tons. Of course, actual range is hard to predict, fuel consumption may be somewhat worse than F-22.

Just look at the difference in fuel load between the YF-22 and the F-22A, and they were pretty much the same size.
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Offline Ainen

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #159 on: February 15, 2018, 05:35:22 am »
So i don't believe it's implausible J-20 carries 35% more fuel than F-22 internally, if not more. 
Yes, I feel it to be like this too.Maybe a bit smaller.
Basically, it brings us to the typical 5th generation internal range window.
Raptor is just below it, because of changes between YF-22 and F-22A.


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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #160 on: February 18, 2018, 11:03:29 pm »
Whether an aircraft is able to carry four or two EFTs or whatever I think should have no implication for what we estimate its internal fuel capacity is.
Ability to carry 4 fuel tanks requires additional complication of fuel system.
No one will do it without a proper reason. Even more so for a 5th generation fighter.

Simplest possible reason is a ferry range, of which they want really a lot(5500 was quoted by Xinhua).
Without these EFTs we just drop 8+t of fuel out of equation. Which basically is a full Raptor worth of fuel.

Yes, of course the engineering and testing to allow an aircraft to carry four or two EFTs needs time, and money and effort.

However, that merely means the Air Force would've believed that it would have been worthwhile for the aircraft to have that ability. It does not convey to us on what the aircraft's internal fuel capacity/range is, nor does it tell us what the aircraft's internal+EFT fuel capacity/fuel range is.


In other words, we know the Air Force definitely has fuel and range requirements, both with and without EFTs, but the fact that they decided to allow the aircraft to carry four EFTs doesn't tell us what those requirements are.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #161 on: February 19, 2018, 12:05:38 am »
It may just mean they are short on tankers.
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Offline Ainen

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #162 on: February 19, 2018, 08:29:30 am »
In other words, we know the Air Force definitely has fuel and range requirements, both with and without EFTs, but the fact that they decided to allow the aircraft to carry four EFTs doesn't tell us what those requirements are.
It's the most logical explanation. AndI believe design of aircraft to be logical more often than not.  :)
There are too few reasons to do it on a stealth fighter this way apart from additional ferry range.
Otherwise internal fuel wins.

2Paul
You mean as a buddy tanker? While possible, sounds a bit wasteful on a non-naval 5th gen fighter.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2018, 08:31:03 am by Ainen »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #163 on: February 19, 2018, 11:20:29 am »
No - I mean, they may want it to be able to deploy long distances (China itself is kind of big) without relying on tanker support like the US does for its F-22s.
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Offline VTOLicious

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #164 on: February 19, 2018, 11:32:24 am »
No - I mean, they may want it to be able to deploy long distances (China itself is kind of big) without relying on tanker support like the US does for its F-22s.

And J-20 doesn't feature in flight refueling so far...
http://chinesemilitaryreview.blogspot.co.at/2013/02/boom-tanker-in-flight-refueling-chinese.html?m=0

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #165 on: February 19, 2018, 12:15:10 pm »
No - I mean, they may want it to be able to deploy long distances (China itself is kind of big) without relying on tanker support like the US does for its F-22s.

And J-20 doesn't feature in flight refueling so far...
http://chinesemilitaryreview.blogspot.co.at/2013/02/boom-tanker-in-flight-refueling-chinese.html?m=0

I’ll let the real experts on the J-20 chip in on this but there are many more at least as reliable sources that the J-20 has a retractable refueling probe and it seems hardly credible that it would’t have this feature from the get-go.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #166 on: February 20, 2018, 02:01:34 pm »
No - I mean, they may want it to be able to deploy long distances (China itself is kind of big) without relying on tanker support like the US does for its F-22s.

And J-20 doesn't feature in flight refueling so far...
http://chinesemilitaryreview.blogspot.co.at/2013/02/boom-tanker-in-flight-refueling-chinese.html?m=0

Since when? We have not many but at least a few clear images of the probe already posed.  So this report is quite unreliable and wrong.
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #167 on: February 20, 2018, 05:13:23 pm »
The article was from 2013 - cut it some slack :)
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #168 on: February 21, 2018, 01:56:11 pm »
The point is, with 4 large external drop tanks and full internal fuel wouldn't the J-20 be able to self deploy anywhere in the world without the need for aerial refueling? That would save assets and time, resources, and equipment to be used elsewhere.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #169 on: February 22, 2018, 12:25:33 am »
stealthy planes are voluminous and heavy. they consume a lot of fuel, compared to their previous gen brethren of the same class. Just compare f-22 range with its fuel load and F-15 range with its. Adding some tanks on f35 (or j20) does not equate to same benefits as adding them to f-16. The example of the famous norwegian sales brochure for f-35: addition of two 480 gallon tanks increased range by only 15% or so, even though weight wise they added 35% more fuel. So even though J-20 may carry over 10 tons of fuel internally and 7  more tons externally, overall ferry range may still be around 4000 km, even with all that fuel. If so, that'd be comparable to F-15c without cft.
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #170 on: February 22, 2018, 06:23:21 pm »
In other words, we know the Air Force definitely has fuel and range requirements, both with and without EFTs, but the fact that they decided to allow the aircraft to carry four EFTs doesn't tell us what those requirements are.
It's the most logical explanation. AndI believe design of aircraft to be logical more often than not.  :)
There are too few reasons to do it on a stealth fighter this way apart from additional ferry range.
Otherwise internal fuel wins.

I agree aircraft design is logical. But I think additional ferry range is a perfectly sensible reason to develop this capability to carry four EFTs.

The ability to rapidly redeploy within the comparative safety of Chinese airspace using EFTs alone without relying on tankers to get from one end of the country to the other, in fast moving crises, and to immediately enter the combat area by ditching EFTs with full internal fuel in a stealthy configuration can be invaluable.


Not to mention the general benefits of increased flexibility of greater ferry range for things like global or regional self deployment if that ever becomes a necessity.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2018, 06:25:18 pm by Blitzo »

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #171 on: February 22, 2018, 06:57:59 pm »
...
J-20 can carry four EFTs and I would be surprised if it ever carries them outside of Chinese airspace defended by IADS during a high end conflict.


In any case, I think between the YF-22 and YF-23, the latter's greater size and longer range would've made it more suitable for the pacific theatre that we see now.
...
To be fair, I am not even sure if unrefueled range of J-20 is that large to call it especially long-legged, heavy usage of EFTs for clearly non-frontline configuration sujests it can be actually not that large.
Otherwise, why so many? Addition of this capability doesn't come for free.


The further, the more it seems what J-20 is quite pure air superiority bird with only secondary a2g or anything else.

Just circling back to this point, specifically the underlined part...

I think I would agree with you that J-20 is itself not "long legged," in the modern context and in the theatre it is expected to operate in, because the future of air power in APAC will likely be one where air superiority fighters have increasingly greater range and persistence. In that context, J-20's internal fuel range and endurance is probably average.

However, what that means is that F-22's internal fuel would comparatively have to be called "short legged" in the same sort of context.



But otherwise, even with a large or larger internal fuel capacity for J-20, it would still make sense to have a non-stealthy "ferry" configuration with more internal fuel tanks for certain mission profiles or deployments where it may be useful.
As far as designing and testing the aircraft for four EFTs go, I think the treasure and time spent on that is fairly small compared to what the rest of the aircraft's design and development would be, yet spending that small amount of time and money opens up substantial flexibility. Just because the F-22 only carries two EFTs rather than four doesn't necessarily mean it is not worth doing in other aircraft. If anything I wonder if the USAF might be kicking themselves a little for not spending the cash to allow the Raptor to carry four EFTs, in hindsight.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #172 on: March 07, 2018, 09:55:13 am »
 ;)
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Offline Ainen

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #173 on: March 09, 2018, 09:41:13 pm »
However, what that means is that F-22's internal fuel would comparatively have to be called "short legged" in the same sort of context.
Well, it is. Her combat persistence is probably it's weakest point.

ATF studies began with some truly long endurance/high speed concepts.
Soviets also played with them, and drawn precisely something most experts expect from J-20.(Article 70.1, or MDP ).
Only difference, it had to be literally twice as heavy,  and forget about any serious maneuvering capability.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #174 on: March 10, 2018, 02:02:26 pm »
However, what that means is that F-22's internal fuel would comparatively have to be called "short legged" in the same sort of context.
Well, it is. Her combat persistence is probably it's weakest point.

ATF studies began with some truly long endurance/high speed concepts.
Soviets also played with them, and drawn precisely something most experts expect from J-20.(Article 70.1, or MDP ).
Only difference, it had to be literally twice as heavy,  and forget about any serious maneuvering capability.

Well, my point was that if J-20 is not called "long legged" but rather merely having "average" range/endurance, then it must be in the context of comparing it with other fighters of its generation and category and role, primarily the F-22.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #175 on: March 12, 2018, 11:21:39 am »
Heureka  ;) ... I was right with my conclusion yesterday:  As expected the first operational unit is the 172nd Air Brigade assigned to the Flight Test & Training Base (FTTB) based at Cangzhou/Cangxian.   

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Offline Hood

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #176 on: March 13, 2018, 05:22:55 am »
An interview in China Daily with an air force test centre head, seems to indicate that further multi-role developments of the J-20 are likely and confirms that the type will not be exported, but no details were given.
Also Flight quotes an interesting part from the interview, "In the past, we had to follow others' paths when it came to designing military aircraft because our research and development capabilities were primitive in this regard, but now we have become capable of designing and making what we want to have." This may be confirmation that the J-20 did not rely on imported designs/expertise, though perhaps a bit disingenuous given number of programmes undertaken since the 1980s (Super-7, JF-17, Xian JH-7, J-10 etc.) which must have helped the learning curve somewhat.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/chengdu-j-20-to-become-multi-role-platform-446703/

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #177 on: March 14, 2018, 12:46:27 am »
An interview in China Daily with an air force test centre head, seems to indicate that further multi-role developments of the J-20 are likely and confirms that the type will not be exported, but no details were given.
Also Flight quotes an interesting part from the interview, "In the past, we had to follow others' paths when it came to designing military aircraft because our research and development capabilities were primitive in this regard, but now we have become capable of designing and making what we want to have." This may be confirmation that the J-20 did not rely on imported designs/expertise, though perhaps a bit disingenuous given number of programmes undertaken since the 1980s (Super-7, JF-17, Xian JH-7, J-10 etc.) which must have helped the learning curve somewhat.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/chengdu-j-20-to-become-multi-role-platform-446703/

I don't see how that is disingenuous considering the first part of that quote is "In the past, we had to follow others' paths when it came to designing military aircraft".

In any case, I am more interested in whether it is referring merely to adding the strike capability to J-20 (which would be a simple enough thing to add on to the aircraft as it is), or if they are thinking about other more dedicated roles in cyber, EW, ISR, UAV/UCAV control.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #178 on: March 15, 2018, 06:07:33 pm »
http://www.defenseworld.net/news/22133/China_to_Commence_Research_on_Sixth_gen_Jet_Based_on_J_20_Stealth_Fighter#.WqsYkXwh02y

Quote
China is preparing to commence research on a sixth-generation fighter aircraft from experience gained in the developing the fifth-generation J-20 stealth jet, its most modern fighter to date.

The J-20 stealth fighter jet will be given more capabilities than merely penetrating an enemy's air defense networks, according to its chief designer, Yang Wei, a deputy director at Aviation Industry Corp of China and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Yang Wei told China Daily that designers will develop variants of the radar-evading J-20 and will open research on its successor, a sixth-generation fighter jet, Global Times reported.
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Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #179 on: March 31, 2018, 05:41:15 am »
Allegedly a new J-20 prototype spotted ... :o ???

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #180 on: April 08, 2018, 05:07:47 pm »
Don't know if this has been posted or not yet. . .
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #181 on: May 20, 2018, 06:27:12 am »
http://idrw.org/did-indias-su-30s-were-able-to-see-chinese-j-20-stealth-aircraft/

Indian said their Su-30 could detect J-20, and they thought J-20 could not change regional balance of air-power.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #182 on: May 20, 2018, 11:06:24 am »
http://idrw.org/did-indias-su-30s-were-able-to-see-chinese-j-20-stealth-aircraft/

Indian said their Su-30 could detect J-20, and they thought J-20 could not change regional balance of air-power.

The J-20 could have been fitted with RCS enhancement devices like US stealth aircraft. They have been photographed with them.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2018, 04:45:14 pm by sferrin »
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #183 on: May 20, 2018, 06:16:49 pm »
http://idrw.org/did-indias-su-30s-were-able-to-see-chinese-j-20-stealth-aircraft/

Indian said their Su-30 could detect J-20, and they thought J-20 could not change regional balance of air-power.

The J-20 could have been fitted with RCS enhancement devices like US stealth aircraft. They have been photographed with them.

I am willing to bet India is smart enough to know if they are reading returns on a radar reflector or an aircraft. The world has grown up. Detected with what wavelength of radar is the question.... THE question. If they can't target it with said radar wavelength, it doesn't really matter as we all know. Or maybe China left off a lot of ram in order to make the detection intentional but more plausible than a radar reflector which reflects all wavelengths. There are easy methods of determining whether or not a return is from a reflector!
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #184 on: May 20, 2018, 11:51:53 pm »
Indian Air Force generals may be politically savvy enough not to say "our Su-30s are completely useless now China has J-20s", too.

Quote
Air Chief Marshal B.S. Dhanoa, while addressing the media at Halwara on Thursday, said that signals from the J-20s can be picked up easily by existing radar from several kilometers away against the currently held belief. Air Chief Marshal Dhanoa also said that the IAF is better equipped and prepared to tackle any threat from China.

Quote
"The Sukhoi's radar can see them. The new Chinese jets are not so invisible after all. No special technology is required to detect the J-20, as it can be detected by ordinary radar stations," Indian Air Force commander Arup Shaha said.
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #185 on: May 21, 2018, 05:27:40 am »
Indian Air Force generals may be politically savvy enough not to say "our Su-30s are completely useless now China has J-20s", too.

Quote
Air Chief Marshal B.S. Dhanoa, while addressing the media at Halwara on Thursday, said that signals from the J-20s can be picked up easily by existing radar from several kilometers away against the currently held belief. Air Chief Marshal Dhanoa also said that the IAF is better equipped and prepared to tackle any threat from China.

Quote
"The Sukhoi's radar can see them. The new Chinese jets are not so invisible after all. No special technology is required to detect the J-20, as it can be detected by ordinary radar stations," Indian Air Force commander Arup Shaha said.

I would even go a bit further... My point is that so far no J-20A ever deployed to that area, so from what event should the IAF get these radar emissions and should have had an option to track a J-20 with an MKI or a ground station?? IMO these reports are as faked as this alleged super-secret spy mission purported in some media a J-20 was flying already missions over Korea.
Second so far all J-20s seen outside were equipped with Luneburg lenses in order to track and follow them ..

And finally – but that’s a personal opinion – the media is hyping that report and none of them is in a position to say anything that matters. We know that the Indian media and IAF have the tendency to brag about their capabilities. IMO it is a purely internal effort to convince the Indian public that their leaders and the IAF has everything under control. In return if you take a look at where are PLAAF bases in the Western TC related to India, there is barely anything. India is completely irrelevant and surely the Chinese side have much more serious issues in the Eastern and Southern TCs against Taiwan and the SCS Islands. These are the area, that matters for China, … but by the Indian self-perception it could not be that China does not care about them.

So better forget this report.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #186 on: May 21, 2018, 11:34:11 am »
It's entirely likely that they are making these claims for public consumption, in order to play down the cancellation of the Russian-Indian FGFA.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #187 on: May 21, 2018, 12:20:02 pm »
"I would even go a bit further... My point is that so far no J-20A ever deployed to that area, so from what event should the IAF get these radar emissions and should have had an option to track a J-20 with an MKI or a ground station?? "

It is very likely that J-20 has been detected by IAF assets: The PLA has deployed the J-20 to Tibet for testing.  Tibet is located such that J-20s flying their test program from Daocheng Yading Airport (DCY)could easily be located by Indian AWACs and maybe even Su-27's patrolling along the border. Further, it should be recalled that J-20 does not offer all aspect stealth and from certain quarters the J-20 is very detectable.

"China is apparently in the process of testing out the Chengdu J-20, the country’s first ever fifth-generation stealth fighter, in the Tibetan mountains"

https://tacairnet.com/2016/09/08/china-has-been-secretly-testing-its-j-20-stealth-fighter-in-tibet/

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #188 on: May 21, 2018, 12:46:01 pm »
"The J-20 has been characterized as having medium stealth with its best performance from the front and the worst from the rear. Business Insider quotes a senior scientist at Lockheed Martin as saying, “It’s apparent from looking at many pictures of the aircraft that the designers don’t fully understand all the concepts of LO [low observable] design.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017-10/professional-notes-us-f-35-versus-prc-j-20

So given how the J-20 presented itself if is quite possible that the Indians detected it during its test program in Tibet

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #189 on: May 21, 2018, 03:34:29 pm »
“It’s apparent from looking at many pictures of the aircraft that the designers don’t fully understand all the concepts of LO [low observable] design.

Yep.  It's easy to copy the answer off somebody else's paper, but when you have to solve a new problem that strategy has. . .limitations.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2018, 04:32:53 am by sferrin »
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #190 on: May 21, 2018, 04:18:48 pm »
Quote
Overall, the J-20 is likely to be a serious threat to U.S. aircraft, ships, and bases for the foreseeable future. While the F-35 has better stealth and sensor capability and the J-20 may not be a matchup one-on-one, the Chinese may be able to put more of them in the sky. In 2017, General Herbert Carlisle, Commander Air Combat Command, stated that in the South China Sea the threat may be “10 squadrons of J-20s, plus Su-35s…and Su-30s and J-10s and J-11s.” So, while not as good as the F-35, the J-20 does not have to be as stealthy or have sensor parity to have an impact on the Far East military balance.

Source:
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017-10/professional-notes-us-f-35-versus-prc-j-20

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #191 on: May 21, 2018, 04:41:42 pm »
“It’s apparent from looking at many pictures of the aircraft that the designers don’t fully understand all the concepts of LO [low observable] design.
Yep.  It's easy to copy the answer off somebody else's paper, but when you have to solve a new problem that strategy has. . .limitations.

Its also possible they understand the concepts fine but chose not to implement them all. For example, if the requirement was for head-on stealth only, then it would be stupid of Chengdu to implement full-aspect stealth.
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #192 on: May 21, 2018, 05:13:31 pm »
“It’s apparent from looking at many pictures of the aircraft that the designers don’t fully understand all the concepts of LO [low observable] design.
Yep.  It's easy to copy the answer off somebody else's paper, but when you have to solve a new problem that strategy has. . .limitations.

Its also possible they understand the concepts fine but chose not to implement them all. For example, if the requirement was for head-on stealth only, then it would be stupid of Chengdu to implement full-aspect stealth.

Whatever its capabilities, the J-20 still makes us wish that the United States Air Force had more than 187 combat coded F-22 Raptor fighters. The espionage and the reverse engineering saved time, but in the end the J-20 is also limited to the manufacturing capabilities of the Chinese aerospace industry.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2018, 05:18:26 pm by Triton »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #193 on: May 21, 2018, 06:01:03 pm »
“It’s apparent from looking at many pictures of the aircraft that the designers don’t fully understand all the concepts of LO [low observable] design.
Yep.  It's easy to copy the answer off somebody else's paper, but when you have to solve a new problem that strategy has. . .limitations.



Its also possible they understand the concepts fine but chose not to implement them all. For example, if the requirement was for head-on stealth only, then it would be stupid of Chengdu to implement full-aspect stealth.

Whatever its capabilities, the J-20 still makes us wish that the United States Air Force had more than 187 combat coded F-22 Raptor fighters. The espionage and the reverse engineering saved time, but in the end the J-20 is also limited to the manufacturing capabilities of the Chinese aerospace industry.

Chinese manufacturing is very, very good. We the USA have literally speaking, trained them. The majority of ALL tooling for automotive components is now made in china and then said tooling is shipped to places like Mexico where the tools are turned on and parts are molded. This is a fact.

The Chinese mandate by law that if something is built in china, like a jeep (which is now a reality) that the majority of all the components must be built in china.

The great god of greed to squeeze every penny of profit possible out of everything sold in the USA has lead the USA to handing the Chinese the keys to the kingdom.

Chinese manufacturing is extremely good. I would rank it better than Russian.

I work with Chinese engineers in China... While they are getting better the US is losing its skills. This is very frightening and no one cares. You have to look to fringe news and opinion sources to even learn these things which is also frightening.
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Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #194 on: May 21, 2018, 06:08:00 pm »
“It’s apparent from looking at many pictures of the aircraft that the designers don’t fully understand all the concepts of LO [low observable] design.
Yep.  It's easy to copy the answer off somebody else's paper, but when you have to solve a new problem that strategy has. . .limitations.

Its also possible they understand the concepts fine but chose not to implement them all. For example, if the requirement was for head-on stealth only, then it would be stupid of Chengdu to implement full-aspect stealth.

I wonder how much of the whole "all aspect stealth" idea comes from round vs flat engine nozzles. For most stealth aircraft, the least stealthy aspect is the rear aspect, and even aircraft with flat engine nozzles from the six o'clock aspect will have the innards of their turbofans exposed to radar.


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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #195 on: May 22, 2018, 04:33:20 am »
“It’s apparent from looking at many pictures of the aircraft that the designers don’t fully understand all the concepts of LO [low observable] design.
Yep.  It's easy to copy the answer off somebody else's paper, but when you have to solve a new problem that strategy has. . .limitations.

Its also possible they understand the concepts fine but chose not to implement them all. For example, if the requirement was for head-on stealth only, then it would be stupid of Chengdu to implement full-aspect stealth.

Agreed.  On the other hand I'd think the Lockheed people would recognize that pretty easily.  I don't think they're saying, "they didn't put all aspect stealth on their jet therefore they don't understand stealth".  I think they're saying, "they've got these areas they obviously tried to make stealthy, and they might look stealthy to the casual observer but because of X, Y, & Z they're really not".   
« Last Edit: May 22, 2018, 04:45:16 am by sferrin »
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #196 on: May 22, 2018, 04:33:52 am »
Chinese manufacturing is very, very good. We the USA have literally speaking, trained them. The majority of ALL tooling for automotive components is now made in china and then said tooling is shipped to places like Mexico where the tools are turned on and parts are molded. This is a fact.

The Chinese mandate by law that if something is built in china, like a jeep (which is now a reality) that the majority of all the components must be built in china.

The great god of greed to squeeze every penny of profit possible out of everything sold in the USA has lead the USA to handing the Chinese the keys to the kingdom.

Chinese manufacturing is extremely good. I would rank it better than Russian.

I work with Chinese engineers in China... While they are getting better the US is losing its skills. This is very frightening and no one cares. You have to look to fringe news and opinion sources to even learn these things which is also frightening.

Transparency can be an issue with 'made in China'

Before my Father retired from Airbus the A320 plant in China had never produced an aircraft with even a single concession recorded... the joke was that the paint on these 'perfectly manufactured' airliners was suspiciously thick

Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #197 on: May 22, 2018, 04:35:39 am »
I work with Chinese engineers in China... While they are getting better the US is losing its skills. This is very frightening and no one cares. You have to look to fringe news and opinion sources to even learn these things which is also frightening.

That's the problem with business in the West.  They'll sell their Golden Goose for a buck if that dollar will make it onto this quarters report.  Planning for the future is a foreign concept.  (And too often "the future" is anything beyond the end of the current budget cycle.)
« Last Edit: May 22, 2018, 04:46:52 am by sferrin »
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #198 on: May 22, 2018, 06:37:08 am »
At the end of the day, learning to achieve low radar cross section is a matter of trial and error. They have their plane, they measure the RCS from various angles, using various radars. While they may not know how to achieve certain things as well as Lockheed Martin, they do know when something is good enough. Evidently J-20, as it is, was deemed good enough to invest all that money in developing a plane with all those LO features. Had the state of tech been so low that designers told PLAAF "We can't achieve what you're asking for, not even close" then PLAAF wouldn't have invested in futile development effort, preferring to spend its budget on more stuff that actually worked as requested.
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Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #199 on: May 22, 2018, 07:01:14 am »
"I would even go a bit further... My point is that so far no J-20A ever deployed to that area, so from what event should the IAF get these radar emissions and should have had an option to track a J-20 with an MKI or a ground station?? "

It is very likely that J-20 has been detected by IAF assets: The PLA has deployed the J-20 to Tibet for testing.  Tibet is located such that J-20s flying their test program from Daocheng Yading Airport (DCY)could easily be located by Indian AWACs and maybe even Su-27's patrolling along the border. Further, it should be recalled that J-20 does not offer all aspect stealth and from certain quarters the J-20 is very detectable.

"China is apparently in the process of testing out the Chengdu J-20, the country’s first ever fifth-generation stealth fighter, in the Tibetan mountains"

https://tacairnet.com/2016/09/08/china-has-been-secretly-testing-its-j-20-stealth-fighter-in-tibet/


Just tow points to consider:

1. You know that was a prototype briefly deployed during high altitude and cold weather testing at Daocheng Yading Airport and so they most likely were fitted with Luneburg-lenses as we've seen them most often esp. when operating from civilian bases.

2. Even if officially located in the Garzê Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Sichuan province, China, it is not what most Indians rate as Tibet... Therefore I'm not sure - and the report itself is more than vague too - what Indian radar assets were right that moment close enough to monitor: The report itself only claims: could probably ... but surely not there was !

IMO again that report hypes things that are most unlikely ever happened ... the whole report is a piece of BS.
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
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My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
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For nothing now can ever come to any good.
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Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #200 on: May 22, 2018, 07:08:06 am »
Had the state of tech been so low that designers told PLAAF "We can't achieve what you're asking for, not even close" then PLAAF wouldn't have invested in futile development effort, preferring to spend its budget on more stuff that actually worked as requested.

Not necessarily.  You'll never get an honest to god stealth aircraft by quitting. 
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #201 on: May 22, 2018, 09:36:55 am »
The key quote from VH that began this discussion can be traced back from Schneider's lackluster USNI piece (he's more of a nuke wonk) to a non-attributed quote in faux newspaper Business Insider, which is actually an aggregator augmented by low-experience bloggers. The author of that particular piece is a 2015 college grad fresh from an internship gig at Atlanta's Creative Loafing, so we can pretty much guarantee that the context is wrong.

Afterburning flat nozzles are good for stealth (unless you have the burners on, in which case it don't matter a lick) but the problem is all that hot, high-pressure air that wants nothing more than to make them round, as the laws of physics dictate.




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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #202 on: May 22, 2018, 10:12:53 am »

Chinese manufacturing is very, very good. We the USA have literally speaking, trained them. The majority of ALL tooling for automotive components is now made in china and then said tooling is shipped to places like Mexico where the tools are turned on and parts are molded. This is a fact.

The Chinese mandate by law that if something is built in china, like a jeep (which is now a reality) that the majority of all the components must be built in china.

Chinese manufacturing is extremely good. I would rank it better than Russian.

I work with Chinese engineers in China... While they are getting better the US is losing its skills. This is very frightening and no one cares. You have to look to fringe news and opinion sources to even learn these things which is also frightening.

You should reconsider your statement that Chinese engineering is 'extremely good' According to these recent public  experiences with Chinese engineering the verdict has come down that Chinese engineering is shoddy and in many cases dangerous to the end user. And do not forget that even after many years and investments of billions of dollars the Chinese still cannot build a decent jet engine.

Check out this story on electric buses being manufactured by Chinese company BYD, and in service with LA Metro:
"But largely unbeknownst to the public, BYD's electric buses are contending with a record of poor performance and mechanical problems."
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-electric-buses-20180520-story.html

And of course there is this report on the Chinese manufactured Bay Bridge in San Francisco which is falling apart due to shoddy workmanship and poor welds after just 12 years in service.
http://media.sacbee.com/static/sinclair/sinclair.jquery/baybridge/index.html




Offline VH

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #203 on: May 22, 2018, 10:24:58 am »

Just tow points to consider:

1. You know that was a prototype briefly deployed during high altitude and cold weather testing at Daocheng Yading Airport and so they most likely were fitted with Luneburg-lenses as we've seen them most often esp. when operating from civilian bases.

2. Even if officially located in the Garzê Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Sichuan province, China, it is not what most Indians rate as Tibet... Therefore I'm not sure - and the report itself is more than vague too - what Indian radar assets were right that moment close enough to monitor: The report itself only claims: could probably ... but surely not there was !

IMO again that report hypes things that are most unlikely ever happened ... the whole report is a piece of BS.

You should recall that Russian AWACS monitored allied air operations during the Gulf war from orbits over the Caspian Sea. If that happened it is highly possible that Indian AWACS cued by intelligence were able to track and detect the J-20 during its deployment to Tibet. The Indians are not chumps when it comes to air operations. Their prowess was discovered during their participation at Red Flag.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2018, 10:28:05 am by VH »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #204 on: May 22, 2018, 10:39:44 am »
You should reconsider your statement that Chinese engineering is 'extremely good' According to these recent public  experiences with Chinese engineering the verdict has come down that Chinese engineering is shoddy and in many cases dangerous to the end user.

As in all things, "it depends".  I certainly wouldn't consider this a product of "shoddy engineering":



Then you have smartphones, computers (China leads the world in supercomputing now), as well as basic manufacturing.  I recently bought a Kevin John  Venom (knife - don't know where they come up with the names) straight from China for $230 shipped.  Better build quality than most of the rest of my knives at a fraction of the price.  Even mom & pop shops in China are modernizing. 

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Offline kaiserd

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #205 on: May 22, 2018, 11:40:32 am »
Can we try to keep to the actual topic and not drift off to a number of contributers pet gripes about particular countries?

Offline kcran567

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #206 on: May 22, 2018, 02:27:14 pm »
Sounds like Pierre Sprey has been visiting India and has a few new followers there (Stealth is a Myth), India PR.

The possibility mentioned that the J-20 had its lens reflector deployed makes sense. Wouldn't Indian operators know the difference? 

Could atmospheric conditions make stealth aircraft more visible (wet, rain), wonder what the conditions were if indeed India was able to track with the MKIs or AWACs. Just putting it out there.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2018, 02:40:26 pm by kcran567 »

Offline Steven

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #207 on: May 23, 2018, 01:03:56 am »
It certainly does seem like the J-20 design made some compromises in terms of low observability and it likely won't reach the level of signature reduction of the F-22, but perhaps that wasn't the goal in the first place. That said, in the Pacific, operational considerations would make range a greater design driver. I wouldn't dismiss Chinese engineering and manufacturing out of hand; for instance, consumer electronics are generally of good quality. You can also point out engineering failures of any country so singling out any one in particular isn't very constructive, and to be frank a certain poster here comes across as having some kind of vendetta.

However, even though it is advancing at a remarkable rate (some of it no doubt through IP theft), China still lags the West in terms of experience and technology in several key fields in aeronautics, with propulsion being the most obvious.
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #208 on: May 23, 2018, 02:38:06 am »

Not necessarily.  You'll never get an honest to god stealth aircraft by quitting.

What I *tried* to say is: it's not the Chinese industry that would quit and wait for better, but PLAAF. If J-20 was so unsatisfactory for PLAAF, then they would likely not buy it. They would just pay for some research programmes for low observable tech like BAE's Replica, maybe even some flying demonstrator, like SAC did with FC-31, but would not pay for research of myriad of other subsystems and their integration into an actual combat flying machine. It'd still be expense for Chinese MoD, of course, but most of the money would be "saved" and could be channeled into other viable PLAAF needs.
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Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #209 on: May 23, 2018, 02:59:35 am »
Sounds like Pierre Sprey has been visiting India and has a few new followers there (Stealth is a Myth), India PR.

The possibility mentioned that the J-20 had its lens reflector deployed makes sense. Wouldn't Indian operators know the difference? 

Indeed, would they?


Quote
Could atmospheric conditions make stealth aircraft more visible (wet, rain), wonder what the conditions were if indeed India was able to track with the MKIs or AWACs. Just putting it out there.

Not impossible, but considering when the requirements for J-XX would've been put out the PLAAF would've likely wanted the aircraft to operate in the westpac environment (including ECS and SCS and beyond) which can be pretty wet and rainy, I would be surprised if they hadn't kept such demands in mind. Not to mention the aircraft would've considered operations for an India contingency in mind as well...

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #210 on: May 23, 2018, 03:12:48 am »
It certainly does seem like the J-20 design made some compromises in terms of low observability and it likely won't reach the level of signature reduction of the F-22, but perhaps that wasn't the goal in the first place. That said, in the Pacific, operational considerations would make range a greater design driver. I wouldn't dismiss Chinese engineering and manufacturing out of hand; for instance, consumer electronics are generally of good quality. You can also point out engineering failures of any country so singling out any one in particular isn't very constructive, and to be frank a certain poster here comes across as having some kind of vendetta.

All aircraft are indeed a result of compromise between various different performance demands operating under the level of echnology that a nation's industries have mastered.


Range vs kinematic performance vs RF VLO vs IR VLO vs internal payload vs cost vs maintainability etc for each and every aircraft are tweaked a bit to match a nation's own optimal demands and operational preferences.


Of course, the quote from the "Lockheed scientist" is vague enough that it could mean anything. "not fully understanding" all the "concepts" of LO design in this case could literally be the guy saying, oh look J-20's engines have round nozzles without serrations that is obviously not quite as stealthy as an F-22's F119 engine nozzles -- or on the other end of the spectrum it can be what a few people seem to be insinuating,like the developers of J-20 and/or the PLAAF have basically chosen to ctrl+c, ctrl+v a few random bits and pieces of external superficial stealth shaping from US stealth fighters without actually doing any research, development or trials to see how it all works together on the aircraft. 

Offline Steven

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #211 on: May 23, 2018, 06:22:16 am »
It certainly does seem like the J-20 design made some compromises in terms of low observability and it likely won't reach the level of signature reduction of the F-22, but perhaps that wasn't the goal in the first place. That said, in the Pacific, operational considerations would make range a greater design driver. I wouldn't dismiss Chinese engineering and manufacturing out of hand; for instance, consumer electronics are generally of good quality. You can also point out engineering failures of any country so singling out any one in particular isn't very constructive, and to be frank a certain poster here comes across as having some kind of vendetta.

All aircraft are indeed a result of compromise between various different performance demands operating under the level of echnology that a nation's industries have mastered.


Range vs kinematic performance vs RF VLO vs IR VLO vs internal payload vs cost vs maintainability etc for each and every aircraft are tweaked a bit to match a nation's own optimal demands and operational preferences.


Of course, the quote from the "Lockheed scientist" is vague enough that it could mean anything. "not fully understanding" all the "concepts" of LO design in this case could literally be the guy saying, oh look J-20's engines have round nozzles without serrations that is obviously not quite as stealthy as an F-22's F119 engine nozzles -- or on the other end of the spectrum it can be what a few people seem to be insinuating,like the developers of J-20 and/or the PLAAF have basically chosen to ctrl+c, ctrl+v a few random bits and pieces of external superficial stealth shaping from US stealth fighters without actually doing any research, development or trials to see how it all works together on the aircraft.

Well, Chengdu does appear to take many cues from Western VLO designs through both publicly available information and (almost certainly) espionage. Even VLO shaping itself consists of tradeoffs and compromises. While the stealth of the J-20 is no doubt more complex and nuanced than what most of us can eyeball, it's likely that engineer from a company with extensive VLO experience like Lockheed would be able to identify design features that he wouldn't agree with, at least from a VLO perspective.

But again, the J-20 doesn't need to compete with the F-22 in every characteristics to be able to perform its intended mission.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2018, 01:15:51 pm by Steven »
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Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #212 on: May 23, 2018, 01:53:19 pm »
Well, Chengdu does appear to take many cues from Western VLO designs through both publicly available information and (very likely) espionage.

Considering most international stealth fighter projects that are emerging take quite a fewcues from designs first pioneered by US stealth fighters, yeah.
Tbh this is something that I've never contested since we first saw the photos of J-20 back in late 2010. It would have been concerning if J-20 did not feature similar stealth shaping principles to other stealth fighters.

Quote
Even VLO shaping itself consists of tradeoffs and compromises. While the stealth of the J-20 is no doubt more complex and nuanced than what most of us can eyeball, it's likely that engineer from a company with extensive VLO experience like Lockheed would be able to identify design features that he wouldn't agree with, at least from a VLO perspective.

Assuming that the article is not talking out of its backside and they actually managed to get a LockMart scientist or engineer to make a serious and informed comment about the J-20 based off various photos -- the statement itself is still so damn vague that one could ascribe whatever meaning to it that we wanted.

Even we are able to easily ID a few points of J-20's design and configuration which are obviously not as stealthy as it could be. The current Al-31 engines for example have round nozzles without serrations. The actuators under the wing are F-22 style rather than flat like the F-35. So is that what the guy means?

Or, is it more extreme like what some people here suggested, like CAC literally copy and pasted bits and pieces from F-22 and F-35 without actually thinking about what they were doing and applying their own R&D?



Quote
But again, the J-20 doesn't need to compete with the F-22 in every characteristics to be able to perform its intended mission.

Agree, but also not really what this discussion over the last few pages seems to have been about. Rather, the discussion is more about interpreting what on earth the Lockmart guy meant.

Offline kcran567

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #213 on: May 23, 2018, 02:44:36 pm »
Nobody mentioned that maybe the Indians' did detect the J-20... But did the J-20 have the final definitive (F-35 type-chevron-axisymmetric) nozzle on during the supposed detection. That would make a big difference, no?

Flat nozzles were mentioned in an earlier post, doesn't the F-35s nozzle match or surpass the F-22s?

Did the Indians claim Radio/Radar detection, IR detection, or both?
« Last Edit: May 23, 2018, 02:47:36 pm by kcran567 »

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #214 on: May 23, 2018, 04:18:19 pm »
Nobody mentioned that maybe the Indians' did detect the J-20... But did the J-20 have the final definitive (F-35 type-chevron-axisymmetric) nozzle on during the supposed detection. That would make a big difference, no?

In service J-20s certainly are not flying with serrated F-35 nozzles -- but would it make that big of a difference in this case?
For example, if F-35's F-135 serrated nozzle was replaced with a nozzle more akin to, say what the F110 on an F-16 has, how much bigger of an RCS would it have to allow the IAF commander to make such ambitious claims?

My suspicion, assuming the IAF commander isn't just making stuff up for political reasons, is the J-20s likely had luneberg lenses, and either the IAF recognizes they had luneberg lenses and are choosing to report it anyway for PR where such talk is of little consequence, or that the IAF did not realize the J-20s had luneberg lenses on which would be a much bigger concern.



Quote
Did the Indians claim Radio/Radar detection, IR detection, or both?

Pretty sure they were claiming Su-30 radar and "ordinary radar stations"  ;) are able to detect J-20. So RF.

Quote
"The Sukhoi's radar can see them. The new Chinese jets are not so invisible after all. No special technology is required to detect the J-20, as it can be detected by ordinary radar stations," Indian Air Force commander Arup Shaha said.

Offline VH

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #215 on: May 23, 2018, 07:43:27 pm »
Since the J-20 has been deployed over ocean areas it will soon be able to assess the true radar signature of the Chinese fighter and see how easy it is to detect and track.
"..The People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s (PLAAF) purported first fifth-generation stealth fighter aircraft, the Chengdu Aerospace Corporation (CAC) J-20A multirole fighter, conducted its first over-the-sea combat exercise, the PLAAF announced this week."
 
https://thediplomat.com/2018/05/chinas-j-20-fighter-undergoes-first-over-the-sea-combat-training/

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #216 on: May 23, 2018, 09:42:40 pm »
Since the J-20 has been deployed over ocean areas it will soon be able to assess the true radar signature of the Chinese fighter and see how easy it is to detect and track.
"..The People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s (PLAAF) purported first fifth-generation stealth fighter aircraft, the Chengdu Aerospace Corporation (CAC) J-20A multirole fighter, conducted its first over-the-sea combat exercise, the PLAAF announced this week."
 
https://thediplomat.com/2018/05/chinas-j-20-fighter-undergoes-first-over-the-sea-combat-training/

Considering they'll likely be operating with Luneberg lenses, I doubt it.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #217 on: May 23, 2018, 10:05:10 pm »
This “maybe China doesn’t know how to do VLO designs because it allegedly doesn’t jibe well with the eyeballs of a nameless LockMart guy quoted in a clickbait article” is a silly point of contention. Regardless of what details anyone thinks they can ascertain from their eyeballing, at the end of the day a plane’s RCS is measurable and we can be sure that CAC the PLA will have measured it with the J-20. Regardless of what details one can nitpick at in a photo what ultimately matters is how a design  does with those tests. If the J-20’s RCS wasn’t up to spec then it would still be in development. There’s nothing magical or secret about the science of stealth, nor is there only one way to do stealth. I find it more than a little telling that some of the same guys who are lobbing accusations that China must have stolen and copied technology for the J-20 are also insisting that the J-20 must be deficient because it doesn’t match the same surface details or design choices of the designs it’s allegedly copied. One would think that if Chinese engineering and design chops weren’t up to par they would have just stuck with the same techniques of the evidently “superior” solution given the data they acquired, especially since the value of that data is mostly in the *details*. If someone is trying to have it both ways maybe they’re not being completely genuine about their arguments going either direction.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2018, 10:08:32 pm by latenlazy »

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #218 on: May 23, 2018, 10:45:46 pm »
This “maybe China doesn’t know how to do VLO designs because it allegedly doesn’t jibe well with the eyeballs of a nameless LockMart guy quoted in a clickbait article” is a silly point of contention. Regardless of what details anyone thinks they can ascertain from their eyeballing, at the end of the day a plane’s RCS is measurable and we can be sure that CAC the PLA will have measured it with the J-20. Regardless of what details one can nitpick at in a photo what ultimately matters is how a design  does with those tests. If the J-20’s RCS wasn’t up to spec then it would still be in development. There’s nothing magical or secret about the science of stealth, nor is there only one way to do stealth. I find it more than a little telling that some of the same guys who are lobbing accusations that China must have stolen and copied technology for the J-20 are also insisting that the J-20 must be deficient because it doesn’t match the same surface details or design choices of the designs it’s allegedly copied. One would think that if Chinese engineering and design chops weren’t up to par they would have just stuck with the same techniques of the evidently “superior” solution given the data they acquired, especially since the value of that data is mostly in the *details*. If someone is trying to have it both ways maybe they’re not being completely genuine about their arguments going either direction.

Nah, what some people seem to be saying is to try and get the best of both worlds:
A: J-20 only "looks" superficially similar to F-22 and F-35, and directly copies and pastes bits from those aircraft... but...
B: ... they "only" directly copy/pasted bits of those aircraft without actually understanding what they were doing and implying their testing and trials of what they copied were also somehow incompetent/not reflective of good understanding of RF stealth.


Putting it another way, they're saying J-20 is a copy of various bits of aircraft all mixed together in a way that doesn't work and only looks stealthy but really isn't.  ::)

Offline VH

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #219 on: May 24, 2018, 12:15:15 pm »
There’s nothing magical or secret about the science of stealth, nor is there only one way to do stealth.
Really? It would be interesting to hear the other ways you can achieve stealth without resorting to tried and proven methods. For example the J-20 has chosen to go their own way by using anhedral in their design of canards where the Russian Su57 also uses canards but uses movable Leading Edge Root eXtensions(LERX), which are considered much more stealthy. Many consider the Su-57 more stealthy because of the way the canards are integrated into the plane of the LERX. Perhaps the design of the J-20 canards was a compromise the Chinese chose to live with. Like the round engines nozzles of the J-20.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #220 on: May 24, 2018, 02:05:15 pm »
There’s nothing magical or secret about the science of stealth, nor is there only one way to do stealth.
Really? It would be interesting to hear the other ways you can achieve stealth without resorting to tried and proven methods. For example the J-20 has chosen to go their own way by using anhedral in their design of canards where the Russian Su57 also uses canards but uses movable Leading Edge Root eXtensions(LERX), which are considered much more stealthy. Many consider the Su-57 more stealthy because of the way the canards are integrated into the plane of the LERX. Perhaps the design of the J-20 canards was a compromise the Chinese chose to live with. Like the round engines nozzles of the J-20.
Does the B2 achieve VLO the same way as the F-117? Does the F-22 achieve VLO the same way as the B-2? So yes, really. There are multiple different techniques used to achieve VLO. Sometimes they’re used in conjunction and in different combinations for different designs.

You can’t cherry pick individual features to make judgments about RCS. The whole airframe must be gauged as a cohesive system. The F-22 has large corner reflectors at its inlets from boundary layer diverters that the J-20 doesn’t have. Does that make it less stealthy than the J-20?
« Last Edit: May 24, 2018, 03:12:59 pm by latenlazy »

Offline robunos

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #221 on: May 24, 2018, 03:09:41 pm »
Re. the Indians' claimed detection of the J-20 . . . could the circumstances be similar to this ?

http://uk.businessinsider.com/strange-notches-on-f-35-raise-questions-over-first-combat-with-israel-2018-5?r=US&IR=T


"F-35s deployed abroad usually feature their typical four radar reflectors: to exaggerate their real RCS (Radar Cross Section) and negate the enemy the ability to collect any detail about their LO “signature”. As happened during the short mission to Estonia and then Bulgaria, carried out by the USAF F-35As involved in the type’s first overseas training deployment to Europe or when, on Aug. 30, 2017, four U.S. Marine Corps F-35B Lightning II joined two USAF B-1B Lancers for the JSF’s first show of force against North Korea: the F-35Bs flew with the radar reflectors, a sign they didn’t want their actual radar signature to be exposed to any intelligence gathering sensor in the area."

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #222 on: May 24, 2018, 04:20:55 pm »
Re. the Indians' claimed detection of the J-20 . . . could the circumstances be similar to this ?

http://uk.businessinsider.com/strange-notches-on-f-35-raise-questions-over-first-combat-with-israel-2018-5?r=US&IR=T


"F-35s deployed abroad usually feature their typical four radar reflectors: to exaggerate their real RCS (Radar Cross Section) and negate the enemy the ability to collect any detail about their LO “signature”. As happened during the short mission to Estonia and then Bulgaria, carried out by the USAF F-35As involved in the type’s first overseas training deployment to Europe or when, on Aug. 30, 2017, four U.S. Marine Corps F-35B Lightning II joined two USAF B-1B Lancers for the JSF’s first show of force against North Korea: the F-35Bs flew with the radar reflectors, a sign they didn’t want their actual radar signature to be exposed to any intelligence gathering sensor in the area."

cheers,
          Robin.

Yeah, luneberg lenses have been mentioned a few times and most photos of J-20 flying shows it with a luneberg lens.


Of course the question that's been raised a few times is whether the IAF would be able to tell the J-20 had a luneberg lens aboard... one would certainly hope so.

Offline VH

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #223 on: May 28, 2018, 05:10:41 pm »
There are more ways to detecting the J-20 than encountering an aircraft using a radar enhancing luneberg lens. The IR signature can provide valuable tracking data about the intruder aircraft. Especially since the J-20 with its inability to supercruise without the use of afterburner would light up the sky. If the J-20 deploys to the coastal regions it will have to manage how it conducts patrols to avoid long range detection by marauding Japanese F-35s. A mix of JSDF F-35s and F-15s could provide a credible counter to the J-20. This could get interesting.

"What the F-35 can already do is act as a sensor. Its Distributed Aperture System (DAS) can pick up the infrared emission of a threat, its computers can pinpoint the threat’s location, and its network connections can transmit tracking data to the rest of the force."
http://www.northropgrumman.com/Capabilities/ANAAQ37F35/Pages/default.aspx

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #224 on: May 29, 2018, 01:34:17 am »
There are more ways to detecting the J-20 than encountering an aircraft using a radar enhancing luneberg lens. The IR signature can provide valuable tracking data about the intruder aircraft. Especially since the J-20 with its inability to supercruise without the use of afterburner would light up the sky. If the J-20 deploys to the coastal regions it will have to manage how it conducts patrols to avoid long range detection by marauding Japanese F-35s. A mix of JSDF F-35s and F-15s could provide a credible counter to the J-20. This could get interesting.

"What the F-35 can already do is act as a sensor. Its Distributed Aperture System (DAS) can pick up the infrared emission of a threat, its computers can pinpoint the threat’s location, and its network connections can transmit tracking data to the rest of the force."
http://www.northropgrumman.com/Capabilities/ANAAQ37F35/Pages/default.aspx

Err obviously there are multiple ways of detecting and tracking a stealth aircraft.

But the question from robunos was about the circumstances of the Indian claim for detecting the J-20, which was that the Indians claimed they detected it with radar. So in that case obviously the luneberg lens would be a relevant factor.

Offline VH

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #225 on: May 29, 2018, 09:37:30 am »
You are correct of course regarding the various ways of detecting the J-20. The new question on the table will be how the J-20 fares against JSDF and American F-35s in the Pacific theater especially when F-35 is part of a networked air defense system and when J-20 must resort to using its afterburner to supercruise.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #226 on: May 29, 2018, 10:18:51 am »
You are correct of course regarding the various ways of detecting the J-20. The new question on the table will be how the J-20 fares against JSDF and American F-35s in the Pacific theater especially when F-35 is part of a networked air defense system and when J-20 must resort to using its afterburner to supercruise.

The F-35 doesn't supercruise at all. Is supercruise now important? I thought that the F-35 fanatics all said supercruise is a useless trick.
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Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #227 on: May 29, 2018, 10:40:35 am »
You are correct of course regarding the various ways of detecting the J-20. The new question on the table will be how the J-20 fares against JSDF and American F-35s in the Pacific theater especially when F-35 is part of a networked air defense system and when J-20 must resort to using its afterburner to supercruise.

The F-35 doesn't supercruise at all. Is supercruise now important? I thought that the F-35 fanatics all said supercruise is a useless trick.

Who said that?
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #228 on: May 29, 2018, 11:14:52 am »
You are correct of course regarding the various ways of detecting the J-20. The new question on the table will be how the J-20 fares against JSDF and American F-35s in the Pacific theater especially when F-35 is part of a networked air defense system and when J-20 must resort to using its afterburner to supercruise.

The F-35 doesn't supercruise at all. Is supercruise now important? I thought that the F-35 fanatics all said supercruise is a useless trick.
Who said that?

Just about everyone in every discussion comparing the gummed down performance from the -22 to the -35.

'The F-35 does not need to maneuver as well as an F-22'
'The F-35 does not need to supercruise like an F-22'

But again, the poster I replied to said the J-20 doesn't supercruise without AB when comparing it (J-20) to an F-35. The F-35 doesn't supercruise at all... So what's the advantage? The J-20 *will* supercruise with new engines... The F-35 will never supercruise even if you plucked an engine out of Clint Eastwood's Firefox and bolted it up to a -35.




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Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #229 on: May 29, 2018, 11:30:00 am »
You are correct of course regarding the various ways of detecting the J-20. The new question on the table will be how the J-20 fares against JSDF and American F-35s in the Pacific theater especially when F-35 is part of a networked air defense system and when J-20 must resort to using its afterburner to supercruise.

The F-35 doesn't supercruise at all. Is supercruise now important? I thought that the F-35 fanatics all said supercruise is a useless trick.
Who said that?

Just about everyone in every discussion comparing the gummed down performance from the -22 to the -35.

'The F-35 does not need to maneuver as well as an F-22'
'The F-35 does not need to supercruise like an F-22'


The F-35 doesn't need to.  It's not an F-22.  It was never designed to be an F-22.  It's like complaining the F-16 can't carry as many missiles as the F-15, isn't as fast, and doesn't have as capable of radar.  Does that mean the F-16 sucks in air combat?  Obviously not. 
« Last Edit: May 29, 2018, 11:34:10 am by sferrin »
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Offline Avimimus

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #230 on: May 29, 2018, 01:20:47 pm »
Obviously it is contextual... it depends on how dense the combat space is... who the enemies are.. what the preferred altitude of engagement is etc.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #231 on: May 29, 2018, 03:11:45 pm »
Quote
But the question from robunos was about the circumstances of the Indian claim for detecting the J-20, which was that the Indians claimed they detected it with radar. So in that case obviously the luneberg lens would be a relevant factor.

Not quite, the question I was asking was, do any of the experts her think that the J-20, that was claimed to be detected by the Indian Su-30, was fitted with a radar reflector (luneberg lens) in order to mask it's LO characteristics, rather than just increase it's RCS for safety reasons ?


cheers,
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Offline Triton

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #232 on: May 29, 2018, 04:13:08 pm »
The F-35 doesn't need to.  It's not an F-22.  It was never designed to be an F-22.  It's like complaining the F-16 can't carry as many missiles as the F-15, isn't as fast, and doesn't have as capable of radar.  Does that mean the F-16 sucks in air combat?  Obviously not.

The issue is that some decision makers justified the 187 aircraft F-22 production cap in light of the F-35's capabilities. They believed that resources should be shifted to the multirole F-35 to allow proliferation of a fifth-generation fighter to all three service branches. The United States Air Force still has to make up for a shortfall of 194 F-22 aircraft. Does the United States Air Force address this shortfall with the F-35, an improved F-15, and/or an arsenal plane?
« Last Edit: May 29, 2018, 04:33:36 pm by Triton »

Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #233 on: May 29, 2018, 04:32:33 pm »
The problem is that some decision makers justified the 187 aircraft F-22 production cap in light of the F-35's capabilities.

I think by "some" you mean TWO: Robert Gates and the devil on his shoulder whispering in his ear; Gordon England.  The USAF certainly didn't feel that way.   In fact, at one point the USAF was willing to cut their F-35 order by 500 (five-zero-zero) F-35s if they could have got another 100 F-22s.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2018, 04:44:01 pm by sferrin »
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #234 on: May 29, 2018, 04:58:29 pm »
The problem is that some decision makers justified the 187 aircraft F-22 production cap in light of the F-35's capabilities.

I think by "some" you mean TWO: Robert Gates and the devil on his shoulder whispering in his ear; Gordon England.  The USAF certainly didn't feel that way.   In fact, at one point the USAF was willing to cut their F-35 order by 500 (five-zero-zero) F-35s if they could have got another 100 F-22s.

Don't forget Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Senator John McCain, Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee John Warner, and General James Cartwright, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

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Re: Mitsubishi/LM F-22J Super Raptor/ F-22/F-35 hybrid ?
« Reply #235 on: May 29, 2018, 09:00:34 pm »
Quote
But the question from robunos was about the circumstances of the Indian claim for detecting the J-20, which was that the Indians claimed they detected it with radar. So in that case obviously the luneberg lens would be a relevant factor.

Not quite, the question I was asking was, do any of the experts her think that the J-20, that was claimed to be detected by the Indian Su-30, was fitted with a radar reflector (luneberg lens) in order to mask it's LO characteristics, rather than just increase it's RCS for safety reasons ?

cheers,
           Robin.

That is one of the main reasons to fit a radar reflector. Accurate measurement of the RCS is to be avoided where possible.
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Offline robunos

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Re: Mitsubishi/LM F-22J Super Raptor/ F-22/F-35 hybrid ?
« Reply #236 on: May 30, 2018, 04:05:24 am »
Thanks, Boss, that's what I'd assumed, after I'd read the piece . . .


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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #237 on: May 31, 2018, 10:07:27 pm »
The discussion about a Japanese "Super Raptor" or a LM F-22/F-35 hybrid were split from
this topic and the discussion can now be proceeded with here (without damaging this thread):

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,30367.msg330240/boardseen.html#new
It takes a long time, before all mistakes are made ...

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #238 on: June 01, 2018, 01:33:20 am »
The discussion about a Japanese "Super Raptor" or a LM F-22/F-35 hybrid were split from
this topic and the discussion can now be proceeded with here (without damaging this thread):

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,30367.msg330240/boardseen.html#new

Thanks Jemiba.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #239 on: June 03, 2018, 10:25:03 am »
J-20A + WS-10B
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
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For nothing now can ever come to any good.
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #240 on: June 03, 2018, 12:17:33 pm »
J-20A + WS-10B

Is the J-20A now testing twin WS-10B engines or is it still one engine?

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #241 on: June 03, 2018, 04:31:15 pm »
It always was a pair, I thought?

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #242 on: June 03, 2018, 05:51:25 pm »
J-20A + WS-10B

Is the J-20A now testing twin WS-10B engines or is it still one engine?

From what I recall, we had photos of a J-20A in yellow with dual WS-10 engines, and then rumours and drawings of a second J-20A with dual WS-10 engines as well.

Then earlier this year we also had rumours of another J-20 (possibly an earlier J-20 prototype) with one Al-31 and one WS-10 engine that featured a TVC nozzle.


The photo that Deino posted is likely a photo taken a while ago of one of the J-20As with dual WS-10s from earlier.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #243 on: June 08, 2018, 09:58:20 am »
This is new and may have bearing on the reported detection of a Chinese J-20 by Indian fighters:
"..India air force Su-30 jets to get indigenous infrared tracking system to locate Chinese J-20 jets
June 6, 2018...NEW DELHI – Indian Air Force (IAF) frontline jet fighter Sukhoi Su-30MKI soon will be equipped with indigenous infrared sensors to detect even a radar-evading stealth aircraft possessed by India's adversaries in day and night conditions. Zee News reports.
The Sukhoi Su-30MKI already has a radar that can detect and track the supposed stealth Chinese fighter Chengdu J-20 but with the government deciding to develop a long range dual band infrared imaging search and track system (IRST) for the aircraft under ‘Make II’ sub-category, the IAF jet will be able to locate any plane with stealth characteristics. The IRST can detect and track fighter jets, helicopters and missiles which emit infrared radiation.
The Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) approved the procurement of equipment for the India Defence Forces, including the development of the IRST for Su-30MKI. The system will be able to operate in day and night conditions and will substantially enhance the capabilities of the aircraft.

 A couple of months back, the IAF revealed that the Sukhoi Su-30MKI radar can see China's Chengdu J-20 hundreds of kilometers away."
https://www.militaryaerospace.com/articles/pt/2018/06/india-fighters-infrared.html?cmpid=enl_mae_wrap_up_2018-06-08&pwhid=008a220637c696d632aca29696b59236c3a895dff7da20939a1b5ac1a016430ca4cc56ea31df86c3d134e933ab6cc256e9c497d1f5c23504809625e20f41bd74&eid=288671000&bid=2131896

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #244 on: June 08, 2018, 04:17:08 pm »
This is new and may have bearing on the reported detection of a Chinese J-20 by Indian fighters:
"..India air force Su-30 jets to get indigenous infrared tracking system to locate Chinese J-20 jets
June 6, 2018...NEW DELHI – Indian Air Force (IAF) frontline jet fighter Sukhoi Su-30MKI soon will be equipped with indigenous infrared sensors to detect even a radar-evading stealth aircraft possessed by India's adversaries in day and night conditions. Zee News reports.
The Sukhoi Su-30MKI already has a radar that can detect and track the supposed stealth Chinese fighter Chengdu J-20 but with the government deciding to develop a long range dual band infrared imaging search and track system (IRST) for the aircraft under ‘Make II’ sub-category, the IAF jet will be able to locate any plane with stealth characteristics. The IRST can detect and track fighter jets, helicopters and missiles which emit infrared radiation.
The Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) approved the procurement of equipment for the India Defence Forces, including the development of the IRST for Su-30MKI. The system will be able to operate in day and night conditions and will substantially enhance the capabilities of the aircraft.

 A couple of months back, the IAF revealed that the Sukhoi Su-30MKI radar can see China's Chengdu J-20 hundreds of kilometers away."
https://www.militaryaerospace.com/articles/pt/2018/06/india-fighters-infrared.html?cmpid=enl_mae_wrap_up_2018-06-08&pwhid=008a220637c696d632aca29696b59236c3a895dff7da20939a1b5ac1a016430ca4cc56ea31df86c3d134e933ab6cc256e9c497d1f5c23504809625e20f41bd74&eid=288671000&bid=2131896

does this article add anything new? isn't this the same claim we've heard a month or so ago

Offline VH

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #245 on: June 08, 2018, 05:33:22 pm »
The USAF was surprised by the “surprising sophistication of Indian fighter aircraft and skill of Indian pilots” during a joint training exercise called Cope India at Gwalior. This was in 2004. The addition of an advanced IRST of Indian design on their front line Su-30 fighters may prove to be another surprise in the time of stealthy aircraft.
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/cope-india.htm

All I am saying is do not play India cheap. The backbone of the Indian Air Force is the Sukhoi-30MKI.  And India has been very resourceful in modifying older designs to perform tasks in the modern skies.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2018, 05:44:35 pm by VH »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #246 on: June 08, 2018, 06:46:55 pm »
The USAF was surprised by the “surprising sophistication of Indian fighter aircraft and skill of Indian pilots” during a joint training exercise called Cope India at Gwalior. This was in 2004. The addition of an advanced IRST of Indian design on their front line Su-30 fighters may prove to be another surprise in the time of stealthy aircraft.
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/cope-india.htm

All I am saying is do not play India cheap. The backbone of the Indian Air Force is the Sukhoi-30MKI.  And India has been very resourceful in modifying older designs to perform tasks in the modern skies.

I don't think anyone is playing India cheap? Upgrading aircraft with more modern subsystems is natural and good for many air forces.

I think your comments might be better suited for a dedicated IAF thread rather than the J-20 thread.

Offline VH

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #247 on: June 08, 2018, 09:02:38 pm »
Right now the subject is the J-20 and the material I posted has to do with the J-20. I do understand your sensitivity regarding detection of the J-20.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #248 on: June 08, 2018, 09:12:17 pm »
Right now the subject is the J-20 and the material I posted has to do with the J-20. I do understand your sensitivity regarding detection of the J-20.

I certainly think it is reasonable to treat their previous claims with a generous helping of salt, yes.

Directly quoting those articles without added commentary as you have done so would suggest that you believe their claims are reasonable.

Offline VH

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #249 on: June 09, 2018, 11:06:28 am »
I certainly think it is reasonable to treat their previous claims with a generous helping of salt, yes.

Directly quoting those articles without added commentary as you have done so would suggest that you believe their claims are reasonable.

I do think these claims are plausible. Any stealthy aircraft will have multiple signatures with radar being the most prominent. IR is a legitimate signature weighed against the computing power applied to interpret that signature. I have had the opportunity to crawl around one of the F-23 prototypes and was impressed with the attention to controlling the IR signature of the engine exhausts. Even F-22 has measures to control the IR signature of its engine exhaust. So it is highly plausible that J-20 could be detected by an advanced IRST. We will have to wait until this Indian IRST is in use to determine the final performance.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #250 on: June 09, 2018, 06:53:04 pm »
I certainly think it is reasonable to treat their previous claims with a generous helping of salt, yes.

Directly quoting those articles without added commentary as you have done so would suggest that you believe their claims are reasonable.

I do think these claims are plausible. Any stealthy aircraft will have multiple signatures with radar being the most prominent. IR is a legitimate signature weighed against the computing power applied to interpret that signature. I have had the opportunity to crawl around one of the F-23 prototypes and was impressed with the attention to controlling the IR signature of the engine exhausts. Even F-22 has measures to control the IR signature of its engine exhaust. So it is highly plausible that J-20 could be detected by an advanced IRST. We will have to wait until this Indian IRST is in use to determine the final performance.

I have no disagreements with the utility of IR sensors being useful for the counter stealth role. Whether they'll be able to be used at practical real life distances is another question of course, but I have no issue with the role of IRSTs. For example, the fact that F-35, J-20 and Su-57 all have an onboard IRST sensor I think will be beneficial for their air to air mission against opposing stealthy targets in certain circumstances.


But the original claims of Su-30MKI radars being able to detect or track J-20s at range should be treated with as much skepticism, just as much if PLAAF claimed J-16 radar could detect or track F-22, F-35 or Su-57 at range, or if a Super Hornet or F-15 could detect a J-20 or SU-57 at range.

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #251 on: July 20, 2018, 11:23:41 pm »
brief video/gfy of J-20 doing night exercises, with a neat breakaway halfway through

https://gfycat.com/BetterScarceGoat

Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #252 on: August 18, 2018, 04:57:59 am »
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
...
For nothing now can ever come to any good.
-------------------------------------------------
W.H.Auden (1945)

Offline TAKHISS

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #253 on: October 29, 2018, 06:09:29 pm »
Three J20s arrived to Zhuhai air show





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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #254 on: October 29, 2018, 06:35:10 pm »
4 J-20s in Zhuhai

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #255 on: October 30, 2018, 02:04:02 am »
Thanks for sharing nice pics. I heard the news that TVC nozzle is attached to J-10; Is that targets for J-20 application?

Is there maneuver demonstration using TVC' J-10?

Offline TAKHISS

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #256 on: October 30, 2018, 06:33:24 pm »
Thanks for sharing nice pics. I heard the news that TVC nozzle is attached to J-10; Is that targets for J-20 application?

Is there maneuver demonstration using TVC' J-10?
Let's wait,Zhuhai airshow begin on Nov 6

Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #257 on: October 31, 2018, 05:34:00 am »
They certainly know how to make lookers.  ;)

« Last Edit: October 31, 2018, 04:28:09 pm by sferrin »
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Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #258 on: November 01, 2018, 04:36:33 pm »
MOAR!

This guy also has a ton of excellent pictures of that latest J-10 that has been going around.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/145141267@N03/



« Last Edit: November 01, 2018, 04:43:54 pm by sferrin »
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #259 on: November 01, 2018, 08:32:04 pm »
Really makes you wonder how much is postulation based on photos of American 5th gens versus actual espionage. 

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #260 on: November 02, 2018, 02:46:25 am »
Very detailed pics make for interesting enhancements. Lots of panel detail (zoom in - its huge)
« Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 02:48:14 am by PaulMM (Overscan) »
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #261 on: November 02, 2018, 03:26:29 am »
Another.
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Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #262 on: November 02, 2018, 03:31:12 am »
Really makes you wonder how much is postulation based on photos of American 5th gens versus actual espionage.

Based on photos do you think it's more likely based on espionage or less?
"DARPA Hard"  It ain't what it use to be.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #263 on: November 02, 2018, 04:33:23 am »
Details
« Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 04:52:18 am by PaulMM (Overscan) »
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #264 on: November 02, 2018, 04:48:16 am »
It seems fairly clear the 3D vectoring nozzle on the J-10 is a prototype for eventual fitment to the J-20...

http://www.china-defense.com/smf/index.php?topic=7232.540
« Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 04:54:34 am by PaulMM (Overscan) »
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Offline LowObservable

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #265 on: November 02, 2018, 12:13:39 pm »
What makes the espionage argument moot - at least at the level of public knowledge, and probably at the level of knowledge possessed by the Western IC - is that while the J-20 clearly looks a lot like an F-22, and uses the same LO design philosophy, all the visible features could have been copied from open sources, a decade or more before the first flight. For example....

http://www.f22fighter.com/AffordableStealth.pdf

Chinese engineers, therefore, would have had several years in which to reverse-engineer visible features, understand their importance and work out how to manufacture them before J-20 development started. For example "how do we make an optically acceptable frameless canopy?" could have been a challenge set in 1997.

The J-20 appeared at the end of 2010. On typical Western timescales, this would have meant that development started in 2004-05 with PDR or equivalent in 2006-07. However, this is somewhat earlier than the point at which anyone started to talk about cyber-espionage as a big deal - we started hearing about the Advanced Persistent Threat in 2008.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #266 on: November 02, 2018, 12:20:24 pm »
It seems fairly clear the 3D vectoring nozzle on the J-10 is a prototype for eventual fitment to the J-20...

http://www.china-defense.com/smf/index.php?topic=7232.540
One TVC engine may already be installed on a J-20 test unit.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #267 on: November 02, 2018, 12:31:08 pm »
What makes the espionage argument moot - at least at the level of public knowledge, and probably at the level of knowledge possessed by the Western IC - is that while the J-20 clearly looks a lot like an F-22, and uses the same LO design philosophy, all the visible features could have been copied from open sources, a decade or more before the first flight. For example....

http://www.f22fighter.com/AffordableStealth.pdf

Chinese engineers, therefore, would have had several years in which to reverse-engineer visible features, understand their importance and work out how to manufacture them before J-20 development started. For example "how do we make an optically acceptable frameless canopy?" could have been a challenge set in 1997.

The J-20 appeared at the end of 2010. On typical Western timescales, this would have meant that development started in 2004-05 with PDR or equivalent in 2006-07. However, this is somewhat earlier than the point at which anyone started to talk about cyber-espionage as a big deal - we started hearing about the Advanced Persistent Threat in 2008.

The J-20’s program start goes as far back as 2000. There’s a very likely chance that espionage contributed to and enhanced the development of the basic component technologies and techniques used on the J-20, but there’s a chasm between stealing information to enhance your own capabilities and straight up copying. If we want to be serious about how IP and technology can be purloined by foreign actors to accelerate their own technological development we need to have a more sophisticated understanding of how this actually works. It’s not as simplistic and straightforward as copying someone else’s answers on a test, and we ought to be careful not to fool ourselves into believing those who steal the technologies of others are intellectually inferior and incapable of innovating and expanding on that stolen knowledge on their own. The appropriate analogy is not a cheat sheet but a bootstrap, especially when it’s clear to anyone with an honest and sober mind that military and industrial development for many countries (not just China)  is not an honor contest but a no hold’s bar one.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 12:35:20 pm by latenlazy »

Offline kcran567

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #268 on: November 02, 2018, 01:45:13 pm »
Does a Zebra have stripes?

Where China was behind whether in wing tech or materials or structural tech they clearly used spying and espionage through corporate employees and students, maybe even outright buying the tech or bribing employees with "honeypots" or cash. It happened. And so did the "cyber" espionage before it became well known.
China now can go their own direction and even start to lead in certain areas, but they will still use all means of espionage to get what they need (physical infiltration, cyber hacking, student and employee theft of data) in many cases the tech is being given to them just to get access to Chinese markets.

They are experts of copying tech, see the J-15
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-rips-chinas-j-15-fighter-jet-which-beijing-stole-from-moscow-2018-9

How else did China leapfrog so fast to reach parity?

https://freebeacon.com/national-security/china-hacked-f22-f35-jet-secrets/

https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/kz9xgn/man-who-sold-f-35-secrets-to-china-pleads-guilty

https://www.investors.com/news/who-is-behind-the-lockheed-f-35-boeing-p-8-hack/
« Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 01:54:06 pm by kcran567 »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #269 on: November 02, 2018, 01:53:20 pm »
Does a Zebra have stripes?

Where China was behind whether in wing tech or materials or structural tech they clearly used spying and espionage through corporate employees and students, maybe even outright buying the tech or bribing employees with "honeypots" or cash. It happened. And so did the "cyber" espionage before it became well known.
China now can go their own direction and even start to lead in certain areas, but they will still use all means of espionage to get what they need (physical infiltration, cyber hacking, student and employee theft of data) in many cases the tech is being given to them just to get access to Chinese markets.

They are experts of copying tech, see the J-15
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-rips-chinas-j-15-fighter-jet-which-beijing-stole-from-moscow-2018-9

How else did China leapfrog so fast to reach parity?

https://freebeacon.com/national-security/china-hacked-f22-f35-jet-secrets/

https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/kz9xgn/man-who-sold-f-35-secrets-to-china-pleads-guilty

https://www.investors.com/partner-perspective/currents-of-disruption-tech-and-media-going-vertical-going-global/

Oh no, China and it’s dastardly companies are resorting to the devious espionage techniques of buying technology and hiring people from other companies in an open market, stuff decent normal non Chinese countries and companies would never be caught soiling their good reputations with ::). No real legit technology companies do this, no siree. Poaching and mimicking what your competitor is doing? Unheard of!

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #270 on: November 02, 2018, 01:55:21 pm »
Yeah, but the level they do it at is monumental in scope.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #271 on: November 02, 2018, 02:07:35 pm »
Yeah, but the level they do it at is monumental in scope.
Are we complaining about the rules of the game or are we complaining about it’s results? I think there’s a strong case to be made (though far from foolproof) that there are implicit and explicit norms of conduct for economic and technological competition that China is deliberately ignoring. However, it’s unreasonable to expect any country to comply to codes of conduct that are meant for the deliberate result of knee capping their chances to reach parity or be competitive though, and a bit disingenuous to begrudge countries for agitating against such arrangements. Trying to impose such expectations is likely to get more non compliance, not less. One wonders why so much of China’s technology trasfer and espionage efforts focus so much on state of the art materials, semiconductors, and aerospace.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 02:28:55 pm by latenlazy »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #272 on: November 02, 2018, 02:48:30 pm »
What makes the espionage argument moot - at least at the level of public knowledge, and probably at the level of knowledge possessed by the Western IC - is that while the J-20 clearly looks a lot like an F-22, and uses the same LO design philosophy, all the visible features could have been copied from open sources, a decade or more before the first flight. For example....

http://www.f22fighter.com/AffordableStealth.pdf

Chinese engineers, therefore, would have had several years in which to reverse-engineer visible features, understand their importance and work out how to manufacture them before J-20 development started. For example "how do we make an optically acceptable frameless canopy?" could have been a challenge set in 1997.

The J-20 appeared at the end of 2010. On typical Western timescales, this would have meant that development started in 2004-05 with PDR or equivalent in 2006-07. However, this is somewhat earlier than the point at which anyone started to talk about cyber-espionage as a big deal - we started hearing about the Advanced Persistent Threat in 2008.

Considering how many burgeoning stealth fighter programmes these days seem to emulate F-22 and F-35 design features (the KFXs, TFXs, F-3s, AMCAs of the world) one also has to wonder whether the convergence of performance requirements and limitations of technology would also mean certain design features simply work the best, or are the lowest risk.

Personally I think it will be interesting if all of those stealth fighters do end up being developed the way their concepts have been floated. It would mark a nice return almost to WWII propeller biplane days when the majority of fighters (single engine propeller biplane types) all looked very similar to each other with near identical configurations, but where everyone also recognized they were also their own distinct aircraft through the combination of small details.

In time, perhaps F-35, FC-31, KFX, TFX etc will all be acknowledged as being uniquely different aircraft just as Spitfire, Me 109, P-51 and A6M Zero all were even though they may all share the broadly similar configuration.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #273 on: November 02, 2018, 02:56:19 pm »
What makes the espionage argument moot - at least at the level of public knowledge, and probably at the level of knowledge possessed by the Western IC - is that while the J-20 clearly looks a lot like an F-22, and uses the same LO design philosophy, all the visible features could have been copied from open sources, a decade or more before the first flight. For example....

http://www.f22fighter.com/AffordableStealth.pdf

Chinese engineers, therefore, would have had several years in which to reverse-engineer visible features, understand their importance and work out how to manufacture them before J-20 development started. For example "how do we make an optically acceptable frameless canopy?" could have been a challenge set in 1997.

The J-20 appeared at the end of 2010. On typical Western timescales, this would have meant that development started in 2004-05 with PDR or equivalent in 2006-07. However, this is somewhat earlier than the point at which anyone started to talk about cyber-espionage as a big deal - we started hearing about the Advanced Persistent Threat in 2008.

Considering how many burgeoning stealth fighter programmes these days seem to emulate F-22 and F-35 design features (the KFXs, TFXs, F-3s, AMCAs of the world) one also has to wonder whether the convergence of performance requirements and limitations of technology would also mean certain design features simply work the best, or are the lowest risk.

Personally I think it will be interesting if all of those stealth fighters do end up being developed the way their concepts have been floated. It would mark a nice return almost to WWII propeller biplane days when the majority of fighters (single engine propeller biplane types) all looked very similar to each other with near identical configurations, but where everyone also recognized they were also their own distinct aircraft through the combination of small details.

In time, perhaps F-35, FC-31, KFX, TFX etc will all be acknowledged as being uniquely different aircraft just as Spitfire, Me 109, P-51 and A6M Zero all were even though they may all share the broadly similar configuration.
Perhaps we are seeing design convergence because we are now reaching the limits of what the current propulsion technologies allow for. There was a lot more room to explore novel and different designs when jet engines were new on the block and offering new power margins that allowed for a greater degree of experimentation (and also the range of workable conditions in the more extreme envelopes of flight are much less forgiving).
« Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 03:02:13 pm by latenlazy »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #274 on: November 02, 2018, 03:03:26 pm »
Perhaps we are seeing design convergence because we are now reaching the limits of what the current propulsion technologies allow for. There was a lot more room to explore novel and different designs when jet engines were new on the block and offering new power margins that allowed for a greater degree of experimentation.

I think limitations in terms of technology, funding, and broadly similar performance parameters are part of the reason for the crop of current 5th gen projects. In terms of technology, I think propulsion, aerodynamic/flight control system and rf stealth technology all come together to pose a combined technological limit at the current stage.

I think we are also starting to see some divergence in terms of 5+ gen or near 6th gen designs, some of which may be completely tailless, some of which may have tails, some of which may be somewhere between the two etc, as new technologies and not-yet-concrete performance goals begin to be developed for the next generation.

Flying wing UCAVs/UAVs have also reached a certain level of design convergence, and I expect flying wing UCAV designs to remain broadly static going forwards into the future.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #275 on: November 02, 2018, 03:05:56 pm »
You're really going to play dumb here?  Okay, well you have fun with that.   Personally I'll take "oafish and clumsy" over dangerously naive.

You can totally air complaints and concern if the tides of military development make you concerned over the way that geopolitical competition may go.

But that also means you'll be giving up any moral authority regarding the sanctity of "poaching and mimicking what your competitor is doing".
In other words, you're basically saying that you don't necessarily have an issue with the act of poaching/mimicking/etc itself in terms of military or technological development, but rather that you dislike it when a competitor does it.

Exactly. Maybe we need to be giving some serious thought about whether our much vaunted and extolled standards and virtues were just for show self justifications when things were convenient, or whether we are actually serious about them.

I personally have no issue with people having their own standards and virtues and their own double standards because that's just a part of life, but seeing as this forum is mostly about aerospace technology without a significant geopolitical slant I generally would appreciate some kind of internal consistency as far as standards and virtues are concerned, if simply to facilitate more productive discussion.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #276 on: November 02, 2018, 04:56:36 pm »
Perhaps we are seeing design convergence because we are now reaching the limits of what the current propulsion technologies allow for. There was a lot more room to explore novel and different designs when jet engines were new on the block and offering new power margins that allowed for a greater degree of experimentation.

I think limitations in terms of technology, funding, and broadly similar performance parameters are part of the reason for the crop of current 5th gen projects. In terms of technology, I think propulsion, aerodynamic/flight control system and rf stealth technology all come together to pose a combined technological limit at the current stage.

I think we are also starting to see some divergence in terms of 5+ gen or near 6th gen designs, some of which may be completely tailless, some of which may have tails, some of which may be somewhere between the two etc, as new technologies and not-yet-concrete performance goals begin to be developed for the next generation.

Flying wing UCAVs/UAVs have also reached a certain level of design convergence, and I expect flying wing UCAV designs to remain broadly static going forwards into the future.

It’s really too early to know what kinematic direction 6th gen fighter’s will take, I think, because we simply don’t know enough about the nature of combat by which these machines will be designed for. We don’t have enough data on how 5th generation fighters operate and perform in real live scenarios. For now I view most of these 6th gen mockups we’re seeing as speculative and exploratory designs. I think it will be a while before anything concrete comes from the concepts various aerospace design firms are throwing against the wall.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #278 on: November 03, 2018, 11:59:34 am »
Does a Zebra have stripes?

Where China was behind whether in wing tech or materials or structural tech they clearly used spying and espionage through corporate employees and students, maybe even outright buying the tech or bribing employees with "honeypots" or cash. It happened. And so did the "cyber" espionage before it became well known.
China now can go their own direction and even start to lead in certain areas, but they will still use all means of espionage to get what they need (physical infiltration, cyber hacking, student and employee theft of data) in many cases the tech is being given to them just to get access to Chinese markets.

They are experts of copying tech, see the J-15
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-rips-chinas-j-15-fighter-jet-which-beijing-stole-from-moscow-2018-9

How else did China leapfrog so fast to reach parity?

https://freebeacon.com/national-security/china-hacked-f22-f35-jet-secrets/

https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/kz9xgn/man-who-sold-f-35-secrets-to-china-pleads-guilty

https://www.investors.com/news/who-is-behind-the-lockheed-f-35-boeing-p-8-hack/

The first two examples cited here reinforce my thesis that China started hauling in lots of cyber-intel at a point where the J-20 had to be at the final-conceptual-design stage. Cyber could have helped solve development issues but probably didn't make the airplane any different, because, in 2008, future cyber couldn't be relied upon to address unsolved problems.

The third example is amusing. I recall cautioning a couple of Australian fans of You Know What, at least one of whom worked for a small sub, that they shouldn't go around bragging about their insider knowledge ("look mate, if you aren't cleared into the program you can't understand how good it is") on social media. Guess I was right. Again.

Copying is part of the evolution of engineered products:  think Vigilante, TSR.2, MiG-25 or every commercial airplane that looks like the 367-80. Cars like the VW Golf were inspired by the BMC Mini and 1100, but added new features that made them work better (for example, electric fans and forward-facing radiators). We'd have very little progress if people didn't copy stuff.

The bits that can be, and are kept secret, or that are just plain hard to copy, are (1) the parts and materials on the inside of the mold line and (2) how things are made. The former category (in the case of a stealth airplane) includes RAM, seals, how doors work, apertures &c. The latter category includes the art of achieving a very accurate OML.

In the J-20, we just don't know how many of these design challenges were met by engineering, or even reverse-engineering from the OML, and how many solutions were significantly aided by espionage. We do know that Chengdu and the PLA customer had to be pretty confident that solutions were within reach before the big tide of cyber stuff started rolling in, with the help of Australian and other braggarts.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #279 on: November 03, 2018, 01:04:45 pm »
New Chinese stealth fighter

https://i.imgur.com/LrPtexU.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/JjPAOhD.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/uRqr6o0.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/pHGVJ19.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/vsqUSt8.jpg

Uhhhhhhhhhhhh............

Not quite. Seems to be a generic 5th generation fighter model for a company making components.
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #280 on: November 03, 2018, 02:01:51 pm »
Removed  off-topic posts. Geopolitical opinions on China are off-topic, as are insults to other forum members.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2018, 05:45:48 pm by PaulMM (Overscan) »
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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #281 on: November 03, 2018, 07:01:00 pm »
The bits that can be, and are kept secret, or that are just plain hard to copy, are (1) the parts and materials on the inside of the mold line and (2) how things are made. The former category (in the case of a stealth airplane) includes RAM, seals, how doors work, apertures &c. The latter category includes the art of achieving a very accurate OML.

In the J-20, we just don't know how many of these design challenges were met by engineering, or even reverse-engineering from the OML, and how many solutions were significantly aided by espionage. We do know that Chengdu and the PLA customer had to be pretty confident that solutions were within reach before the big tide of cyber stuff started rolling in, with the help of Australian and other braggarts.

From the first paragraph it also follows that (since the information source available to us is pretty much limited to photography) we can't even, strictly speaking, be certain whether the challenges were successfully met at all.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2018, 07:02:31 pm by Trident »

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #282 on: November 05, 2018, 07:53:06 pm »
A new PV suggests carrier-based J-20 fighters

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #283 on: November 05, 2018, 08:45:13 pm »
And X-47s too.  ::)
"DARPA Hard"  It ain't what it use to be.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #285 on: November 06, 2018, 05:16:52 am »
Love the J-20.  After all the canard-ATF concepts back in the 80s I expected something like this to be the result.  Was disappointed in the "modern F-15" looking F-22.  (The F-23 did take my breath away though.) 
"DARPA Hard"  It ain't what it use to be.

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #286 on: November 06, 2018, 06:30:54 am »
Not as good as J-10B TVC but still cool considering that it still uses interim Russian engines.


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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #287 on: November 06, 2018, 08:39:34 am »
https://imgur.com/zNhH8J2

DARPA : Cool idea isn't it?

Airbus : I have the same idea

China : It's my idea now