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Author Topic: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III  (Read 51609 times)

Offline PaulMM (Overscan)

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Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« on: January 11, 2017, 10:55:54 am »
Part 3 of the J-20 topic starts here.

Part 2 was here

Interesting close-up pic posted on CDF by Deino...
« Last Edit: January 11, 2017, 11:36:13 am by PaulMM (Overscan) »
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Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2017, 01:57:49 pm »
It is notoriously difficult to prove the non- existence of things, be they security breaches, the F-19 or the Loch Ness monster.

You have conjecture. That's it. There may be something there. And maybe not.

Well the fact that there have been LARGE data breaches isn't "non-existent".  I would be astonished if they collected all that information and then didn't bother to read it. That the J-20's initial canopy was damn near a carbon copy of the F-22's canopy, even down to some of the hardware, is not disputable.  (Geometrically at least. Chemical composition can't be eye-balled.)

No one's denying there weren't data breaches -- however I don't believe there is evidence to suggest they were involved in J-20s development. The data breaches could very well have been to look for weaknesses in F-22 and F-35 to develop countermeasures for them (if we knew what kind of data China took then that would be greatly useful in clearing that up).

The fact that J-20's canopy seemingly looked identical to F-22's could just as well have resulted from having access to pictures of F-22 as well..


This entire argument basically comes down to the idea that China hacked Lock Mart and gained data on F-35 and F-22, then a few years later they come up with a stealth fighter that has some superficial resemblance to some aspects of F-35 and F-22, therefore said stealth fighter probably resulted from data gained from F-35 and F-22.

But then we remember that all the superficial resemblance and similar design features of J-20 to F-35 and F-22 could have been attained or cued through open, non-espionage means due to the US's ridiculously transparent development cycle for JSF and ATF (also, considering how the stealth fighter designs of other nations like Japan, South Korea, Turkey, India etc are shaping up, it seems like everyone's benefited from Lockheed Martin's pioneering work). And we don't even know what kind of data or documents China took which might help us to inform us about what they could have done with it.


So with all that in mind, I'd say the evidence suggesting J-20 was developed with assistant from pilfered Lockmart data right now is scant at best, and the only conclusion we have right now is that such a possibility was not impossible -- however I think we are very, very far from saying such a possibility was likely.

And as Latenlazy said in the last thread -- nations conduct espionage for all sorts of reasons, and it is rather surprising to me that the emergence of J-20 makes one think that the espionage against F-35/22 thus inevitably must have benefitted J-20. I think that says more about what the individual's perceptions of CAC, 611 and/or the Chinese aerospace industry at large, rather than proper assessment of the evidence, facts and context we have at our disposal.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2017, 02:03:22 pm by Blitzo »

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2017, 01:59:45 pm »
Thanks Deino...I am being forced to get my info from wider sources recently unfortunately.
Deino, are these in actual squadron usage already, or an Operational Conversion Unit? Is there a most recent indication of how many serial production machines there are?
Either way, as said, it is a mightily impressive pace.

I think they would be currently in the the Chinese equivalent of OT&E.

Unfortunately we don't have any clear grasp of how many production aircraft there are... At least 4-6, maybe more, but none ever all taken in the same picture.

Offline kaiserbill

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2017, 02:45:17 pm »
Thanks Deino...I am being forced to get my info from wider sources recently unfortunately.
Deino, are these in actual squadron usage already, or an Operational Conversion Unit? Is there a most recent indication of how many serial production machines there are?
Either way, as said, it is a mightily impressive pace.

I think they would be currently in the the Chinese equivalent of OT&E.

Unfortunately we don't have any clear grasp of how many production aircraft there are... At least 4-6, maybe more, but none ever all taken in the same picture.

Thanks for that feedback Blitzo..The last I saw on another site was 4 production aircraft I think but that was a few weeks back.
As said, the programme seems to be moving rapidly, relatively speaking.

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2017, 03:11:18 pm »
Thanks for that feedback Blitzo..The last I saw on another site was 4 production aircraft I think but that was a few weeks back.
As said, the programme seems to be moving rapidly, relatively speaking.

no problem

To be honest, if only four production aircraft were built for the whole of 2016 (beginning with 2101) then I think that would actually be a bit on the slow side. don't get me wrong, going from prototype s/n 2001 in early 2011 to LRIP s/n 2101 just five years later is no small feat, but for the whole of 2006 2016 I would be surprised if only four new J-20s were built in total.

Unfortunately, it is not only difficult to ascertain how many production J-20s have actually been handed to the Air Force, but also difficult to ascertain how many total J-20s have been produced since s/n 2101!
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 04:14:53 pm by Blitzo »

Offline kaiserbill

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2017, 12:22:32 am »
Yes...I see your point. What we've seen are only what's been captured on images and probably doesn't reflect what has actually been built.
The total production figures in mind for a high end platform like this will be interesting.

Offline FighterJock

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2017, 06:39:23 am »
Yes...I see your point. What we've seen are only what's been captured on images and probably doesn't reflect what has actually been built.
The total production figures in mind for a high end platform like this will be interesting.

Indeed it will be interesting for the total production figures.  And also what aircraft will be replaced with the J-20As?  For starters, I don't think that it will be the latest J-8s as they have not long come out of an upgrade program.

Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2017, 04:04:46 am »
Yes...I see your point. What we've seen are only what's been captured on images and probably doesn't reflect what has actually been built.
The total production figures in mind for a high end platform like this will be interesting.

Indeed it will be interesting for the total production figures.  And also what aircraft will be replaced with the J-20As?  For starters, I don't think that it will be the latest J-8s as they have not long come out of an upgrade program.

There are quite reliable reports about more than a dozen LRIP-birds out there. No. 11 was spotted in October and this - from yesterday - is said to be #13.
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Offline FighterJock

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2017, 04:46:10 am »
Yes...I see your point. What we've seen are only what's been captured on images and probably doesn't reflect what has actually been built.
The total production figures in mind for a high end platform like this will be interesting.

Indeed it will be interesting for the total production figures.  And also what aircraft will be replaced with the J-20As?  For starters, I don't think that it will be the latest J-8s as they have not long come out of an upgrade program.

There are quite reliable reports about more than a dozen LRIP-birds out there. No. 11 was spotted in October and this - from yesterday - is said to be #13.

With Low Rate Initial Production under way with 13 aircraft operational according to reports, how long will it be before Full Rate Production starts? 

Offline totoro

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2017, 05:42:06 am »


Indeed it will be interesting for the total production figures.  And also what aircraft will be replaced with the J-20As?  For starters, I don't think that it will be the latest J-8s as they have not long come out of an upgrade program.
There are still j8d, produced in late 80s and early 90s, that are long in the tooth, even if theyve been modernized to H standard a decade ago. Furthermore, a few dozen of su27 have already been retired, so the rest of them will also need replacement soon.

Of course, just like with j10 producton, it may be so j20 come to j11 regiments, which would then provide their airframe to regiments which currently operate old j8 and su27.
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Offline kaiserbill

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2017, 08:50:08 am »

There are quite reliable reports about more than a dozen LRIP-birds out there. No. 11 was spotted in October and this - from yesterday - is said to be #13.

I had no idea that they had moved so rapidly on the programme. Seems like only yesterday when we were still viewing test prototypes... Thanks for the info Deino.

Offline FighterJock

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2017, 10:53:57 am »


Indeed it will be interesting for the total production figures.  And also what aircraft will be replaced with the J-20As?  For starters, I don't think that it will be the latest J-8s as they have not long come out of an upgrade program.
There are still j8d, produced in late 80s and early 90s, that are long in the tooth, even if theyve been modernized to H standard a decade ago. Furthermore, a few dozen of su27 have already been retired, so the rest of them will also need replacement soon.

Of course, just like with j10 producton, it may be so j20 come to j11 regiments, which would then provide their airframe to regiments which currently operate old j8 and su27.

So how many Su-27 fighter squadrons do the PLAAF actually have? 

Offline Deino

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #12 on: January 15, 2017, 12:49:15 am »
Serials 78273 and 78274 !
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
My working week and my Sunday rest,
My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
...
For nothing now can ever come to any good.
-------------------------------------------------
W.H.Auden (1945)

Offline CiTrus90

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #13 on: January 15, 2017, 01:28:22 am »
Awsome pics, thanks for sharing Deino!
Regards.

L. Landino

Offline totoro

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #14 on: January 15, 2017, 04:31:07 am »


So how many Su-27 fighter squadrons do the PLAAF actually have?

According to scramble.nl orbat, there arent any pure su27 regiments. Plaaf seems to be mixing them up with j11a.  One could roughly calculate from the given orbat of 6 su27/j11a regiments, and the fact su27 are oldest flankers plaaf has and are probably first in line to be retired, that there are two dozen su27sk left in service. Alongside slightly higher number of su27ubk left.
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