Why is AusAirPower so reviled?

[torginus]

I've recently discovered http://www.ausairpower.net/ and have been reading through the articles posted there with great enjoyment. The guy seems to know what he is talking about, and seems to be far better educated and informed than many professional analysts who expert opinion appears in the press from time to time.
The only controversial opinion he seems to hold in my observation is his revulsion towards the F-35 and regret that the F-22 project was cancelled. Considering his site wasn't updated in a decade, I feel like that opinion was quite justified, seeing how the F-35, despite overcoming many issues since then, still has ways to go, to say politely.

However it seems many people regard his analyses as 'out there' and not very trustworthy. Why is this the case? Which particular opinions of his set off the alarm bell?

 

[Vanessa1402]

APA actually started decently and a trust worthy source. Then he became so obsessed with the F-22 and F-35 that his analysis become a cycle of confirmatory bias. Basically anything f-35 = horrible. Anything F-22 = god given.

 

[Fighterreaper97]

I think that both the f-22 & f-35 are flawed designs the Buffalo ii being worse due to the misguided believes of the hypocritical military brasshats that interdiction/strike missions/ aircraft can win wars when in reality it’s not true at all. Air superiority fighters protecting close air support aircraft which protect friendly armored infantry platoons not bombing bridges roads highways factories supply convoys railways houses which are flawed & stupid ideas. The f-35 while being designated as a multirole fighter is in reality like the f-105 f-111 A-6 intruder B-26 marauder an interdiction & strike aircraft or to put in honest words a bomber not a fighter!

 

[Archibald]

Maybe it is just because Kopp is such an aggressive dickwad, at least in his opinions and writtings ? (note: I don't know him personally nor do I have any axe to grind).
My understanding is:
- he wanted to keep Australian F-111s going forever, to absurdland
- he argued that any present day successors (F-35s & Superbugs) were pieces of junk

I think his wet dream would have been the FB-22, but since it never happened he ended frustrated and saying stupid things, also arguing in circles with himself.
That's one major risk of creating Internet websites / blogging: ranting in circles. Kopp seems to have spiraled into this.

 

[Foo Fighter]

When we become disengaged, it is easy to lose perspective. Hitler, Putin etc. The obvious examples are easy to spot but those in positions to influience our defence, not quite so easy.
Telling the difference between them and logic is key.

 

[Fighterreaper97]

When we become disengaged, it is easy to lose perspective. Hitler, Putin etc. The obvious examples are easy to spot but those in positions to influience our defence, not quite so easy.
Telling the difference between them and logic is key.

The current ongoing war in Ukraine has shown that interdiction & strike missions don’t win wars period. While the Azov Regiment isn’t a bunch of normal people due to far right & neo national socialism, Putin haven’t been forgiving either attacking his own People loving the rape torture abuse & other crimes against humanity including nearly destroying the Chernobyl reactor!
Decency and kindness are the future not politics on both sides being forced into your windpipes nor capitalism

 

[sferrin]

I think that both the f-22 & f-35 are flawed designs the Buffalo ii being worse due to the misguided believes of the hypocritical military brasshats that interdiction/strike missions/ aircraft can win wars when in reality it’s not true at all. Air superiority fighters protecting close air support aircraft which protect friendly armored infantry platoons not bombing bridges roads highways factories supply convoys railways houses which are flawed & stupid ideas. The f-35 while being designated as a multirole fighter is in reality like the f-105 f-111 A-6 intruder B-26 marauder an interdiction & strike aircraft or to put in honest words a bomber not a fighter!

For example, this would fit right in at Airpower Australia.

 

[Archibald]

Yes, because while the F-35 may look like a brick and has (maybe) less manoeuverability than a F-16 in "dog fight", that is, close-air-combat-with-guns... (takes a deep breath) it doesn't matters anymore.
Things like
- AESA radars
- short range and medium range and long range AAMs
- stealth
- network warfare backed by AWACS and datalinks
Prabably mean close air to air dog fight with gun will become the exception rather than the rule.

A F-35 may suck a little in raw performance and agility wise compared to say, a F-15EX - what matters in the end is - it can stealthy sneak behind the said F-15 and kill it with an AMRAAM without the F-15EX pilot ever being aware something was out there chasing him.

So F-35 vs F-15EX 1-0

The trauma of Vietnam where missile-truck Phantoms had their asses kicked by crude MiG-17s poppin out of nowhere, is still lingering.

But since Vietnam, Falklands and GW1 have confirmed that the next generation of missiles works well enough. Add stealth on top of that... time to move away from 1970's thinking.

The F-16 and fighter mafia made sense in 1972 (LWF with gun and Sidewinders), but only 10 or 20 years later A2A combat had erased the Vietnam nightmare. The F-16 itself moved to Sparrow and AMRAAMs right from block 30 / 40 (can't remember which block exactly).

 

[Foo Fighter]

I do think we need to get way from believing that ANY one system will win a war. I never did believe it but this theory of xyz will never win a war is popping out of the woodwork more and more these last few years.

I have zero understanding, why?

 

[kaiserd]

The internet and the wider complications of the modern world have a lot of people looking for simple answers to complicated questions (though the same people may think they are in fact dealing with simple questions).

And thanks to the internet and other aspects of the modern world there is no shortage of those who, for money or just for the attention or just be a contrarian, will happily echo back these false simple answers. Hence selective “research” leads to the versions of the “answers” you were looking for.

My recollection is that AusAirPower was at best a superficially “good” source that didn’t really stand up to much scrutiny.
What ever the respective qualities and limitations of the F-22 versus F-35 (and vice versa - though undoubtedly AusAirPower had an irrational hatred of the F-35 and spread false or misleading claims about it) my primary recollection is of the claims made for a theoretical updated F-111 that bordered on the completely fantastical and untethered to reality.
And recollections of advanced Flanker variants being incorrectly presented as the 2nd coming and somehow simultaneously (1) slaughtering F-35s with ease while also (2) being ineffective against upgraded F-111s.

 

[apparition13]

The f-35 while being designated as a multirole fighter is in reality like the f-105 f-111 A-6 intruder B-26 marauder an interdiction & strike aircraft or to put in honest words a bomber not a fighter!

Nah, it's basically a stealthy Lavi. An attack aircraft (for strike, interdiction, and CAS) that is also a capable fighter.

 

[F-2]

They where very good in the 80s and 90s (if they where around back then and it’s not just Kopps old papers) but he sorta became a mouth piece

The f-35 while being designated as a multirole fighter is in reality like the f-105 f-111 A-6 intruder B-26 marauder an interdiction & strike aircraft or to put in honest words a bomber not a fighter!

Nah, it's basically a stealthy Lavi. An attack aircraft (for strike, interdiction, and CAS) that is also a capable fighter.

its a hornet with a vipers acceleration

 

[Coiler]

The story I've heard (which could be wrong) is this:

Kopp started as a reputable analyst with a legitimate knowledge of electronics, who, during the Cold War, held conventionally pro-western views. What changed was him and his company putting in a ridiculously quixotic bid for a combination of F-22s and Super F-111s (somehow they'd get the big aviation giants to be subcontractors).

So APA became effectively a lobbying site no different from a Lockheed-made site designed to promote the F-35. Thus the change in tone. The F-35 and Super Hornet are treated terribly because they're the competition. The handful of Indonesian Flankers are turned into a megathreat that can only be countered by these F-22/F-111s because the program needs a justification.

 

[sferrin]

I do think we need to get way from believing that ANY one system will win a war. I never did believe it but this theory of xyz will never win a war is popping out of the woodwork more and more these last few years.

I have zero understanding, why?

Who, specifically, said "this system will, by itself, win the war"?

 

[trose213]

Super F-111s

What?

 

[isayyo2]

Super F-111s

What?

Started off reasonably with the RAAF pilfering the then recently retired F-111 USAF fleet to bolster their numbers; spiraled into F119 powered, AESA radar and AIM-120 slinging Super Aardvarks.

Why Australia Should Retain Its F-111 Fleet

Index of technical reports, articles and papers covering the General Dynamic F-111, and the strategic, tactical and operational reasons why Australia should retain this aircraft in service. Topics include F-111, F-111C, RF-111C, F/RF-111C/G, F111, pig, RAAF, airforce, Aardvark, jets, aircraft...

www.ausairpower.net

 

[timmymagic]

So APA became effectively a lobbying site no different from a Lockheed-made site designed to promote the F-35. Thus the change in tone.

He also became very aggressive towards anyone who pointed out flaws with his logic. Some Australian posters from within the Australian defence industry/ex-miliary in particular, all of whom were being very gentle with him..

Kopp started as a reputable analyst with a legitimate knowledge of electronics, who, during the Cold War, held conventionally pro-western views.

Some of the Australian's who had had experience of him over the years disputed this quite vociferously...

 

[Rickshaw]

I knew Carlo from his early days of defence analysis. His problem is he specialised early on with AESA radar and it's use as a comms device. Indeed he became a world leader in the field. Unforunately he became convinced of his greatness. We have fallen out of contact but his advancing of the F-22/F-111 camp over the F-35/F-18 camp occurred despite the political reality. The F-22 was curtailed and never sold to any other nation. The F-111 was overturned by a combination of events such as the seal/de-seal controversy and the end of the Cold War. The F-111 was never the greatest aircraft downunder because the RAAF was never willing to spend massive amounts of money upgrading the aircraft unlike the USAF. Basically it lagged significantly behind the USAF versions for over 40 years until they decided to upgrade it's avionics. Carlo was unwilling to listen to that argument. Basically he had his view of events and nothing else would fit his view.

 

[stealthflanker]

In short he's way too stubborn with his argument so far.

That unfortunately overshadows the otherwise i would say unrivaled technical analysis ability of his. I think he is still the only one so far went deep into RCS and Radar analysis in at least open public domain.

He was one of my inspiration in actually trying to get into Radar realm.

 

[F-2]

He had an absolutely unrivaled ability to get info on obscure stuff. For years he was the only one who had pictures of Aim-9r for example.

 

[Fighterreaper97]

They where very good in the 80s and 90s (if they where around back then and it’s not just Kopps old papers) but he sorta became a mouth piece

The f-35 while being designated as a multirole fighter is in reality like the f-105 f-111 A-6 intruder B-26 marauder an interdiction & strike aircraft or to put in honest words a bomber not a fighter!

Nah, it's basically a stealthy Lavi. An attack aircraft (for strike, interdiction, and CAS) that is also a capable fighter.

its a hornet with a vipers acceleration

I personally don’t think that’s the case because ww2 style radars have caught up to low observable aircraft and can shoot them out of the sky & j-10s j-20s & mig-21-93s would tear the Buffalo ii apart. The F-35 while classed and designated as a multi role fighter, the F-35 is in reality an interdiction and strike aircraft/tactical bomber designed to carry nuclear weapons in its internal weapons bay. It would be outclassed in a dogfight via J-10s at close range combat whose 23mm cannon fire would tear the Buffalo ii to pieces at a slaughterhouse & it can’t perform the close air support effectively unlike the A-1H skyraider & A-10 Thunderbolt II who’s 30mm cannon is better at destroying battle tanks

 

[Ronny]

I personally don’t think that’s the case because ww2 style radars have caught up to low observable aircraft and can shoot them out of the sky & j-10s j-20s & mig-21-93s would tear the Buffalo ii apart. The F-35 while classed and designated as a multi role fighter, the F-35 is in reality an interdiction and strike aircraft/tactical bomber designed to carry nuclear weapons in its internal weapons bay. It would be outclassed in a dogfight via J-10s at close range combat whose 23mm cannon fire would tear the Buffalo ii to pieces at a slaughterhouse & it can’t perform the close air support effectively unlike the A-1H skyraider & A-10 Thunderbolt II who’s 30mm cannon is better at destroying battle tanks

Is that supposed to be sarcasm or you actually believe that?.

 

[Fighterreaper97]

I personally don’t think that’s the case because ww2 style radars have caught up to low observable aircraft and can shoot them out of the sky & j-10s j-20s & mig-21-93s would tear the Buffalo ii apart. The F-35 while classed and designated as a multi role fighter, the F-35 is in reality an interdiction and strike aircraft/tactical bomber designed to carry nuclear weapons in its internal weapons bay. It would be outclassed in a dogfight via J-10s at close range combat whose 23mm cannon fire would tear the Buffalo ii to pieces at a slaughterhouse & it can’t perform the close air support effectively unlike the A-1H skyraider & A-10 Thunderbolt II who’s 30mm cannon is better at destroying battle tanks

Is that supposed to be sarcasm or you actually believe that?.

If the lessons of the past aren’t learnt at all then history repeats itself at over again.

 

[F-2]

They where very good in the 80s and 90s (if they where around back then and it’s not just Kopps old papers) but he sorta became a mouth piece

The f-35 while being designated as a multirole fighter is in reality like the f-105 f-111 A-6 intruder B-26 marauder an interdiction & strike aircraft or to put in honest words a bomber not a fighter!

Nah, it's basically a stealthy Lavi. An attack aircraft (for strike, interdiction, and CAS) that is also a capable fighter.

its a hornet with a vipers acceleration

I personally don’t think that’s the case because ww2 style radars have caught up to low observable aircraft and can shoot them out of the sky & j-10s j-20s & mig-21-93s would tear the Buffalo ii apart. The F-35 while classed and designated as a multi role fighter, the F-35 is in reality an interdiction and strike aircraft/tactical bomber designed to carry nuclear weapons in its internal weapons bay. It would be outclassed in a dogfight via J-10s at close range combat whose 23mm cannon fire would tear the Buffalo ii to pieces at a slaughterhouse & it can’t perform the close air support effectively unlike the A-1H skyraider & A-10 Thunderbolt II who’s 30mm cannon is better at destroying battle tanks

We have a publicly available F-35 EM chart from an AIAA paper. F-16.net seems to think it’s around 19-20000 feet. It sure seems like the F-35 is capable in an unlikely close range fight.

 

[sferrin]

I personally don’t think that’s the case because ww2 style radars have caught up to low observable aircraft and can shoot them out of the sky & j-10s j-20s & mig-21-93s would tear the Buffalo ii apart. The F-35 while classed and designated as a multi role fighter, the F-35 is in reality an interdiction and strike aircraft/tactical bomber designed to carry nuclear weapons in its internal weapons bay. It would be outclassed in a dogfight via J-10s at close range combat whose 23mm cannon fire would tear the Buffalo ii to pieces at a slaughterhouse & it can’t perform the close air support effectively unlike the A-1H skyraider & A-10 Thunderbolt II who’s 30mm cannon is better at destroying battle tanks

Is that supposed to be sarcasm or you actually believe that?.

He actually believes it. Mind-boggling, isn't it?

 

[Opinionated Alchemist]

I think that both the f-22 & f-35 are flawed designs the Buffalo ii being worse due to the misguided believes of the hypocritical military brasshats that interdiction/strike missions/ aircraft can win wars when in reality it’s not true at all. Air superiority fighters protecting close air support aircraft which protect friendly armored infantry platoons not bombing bridges roads highways factories supply convoys railways houses which are flawed & stupid ideas. The f-35 while being designated as a multirole fighter is in reality like the f-105 f-111 A-6 intruder B-26 marauder an interdiction & strike aircraft or to put in honest words a bomber not a fighter!

So - I am new here - but not so new when it comes to air power - and the F-35.

And I absolutely think, that you totally misunderstand and misrepresent the Lightning II.
The USAF will probably double down in its doctrine for the NGAD project. That means, maneuverability (...) will have far less priority than stealth and range (range is the new thing I guess)!
The idea, that a modern multirole (or in the case of the F-35 multimillion) aircraft it “worse” than a designated (but older) air superiority aircraft is a fallacy. It is similar like: gas powered cars are faster than electric cars...

The F-35 has several technologies which makes it (and will make it) superior to jets like the F-15. Starting with stealth - but also modern threat-analyzing systems, DAS, sensor fusion, the best current aerial radar in the world, a totally augmented flight control system and so on.

It is a totally outdated understanding, that it will conduct CAS as the “classic” A-10 doctrine.

The F-35 in its current form (F-35A) could dominate an F-16 (repeating the previous test, when the F-35 could not keep up with the F-16). Because Lockheed Martin lifted its computer based limits (to the most degree) and because the Air Force introduced “the rules of engagement” for the F-35.

And we are not even talking about the 90+% of the times, when the F-35 is just a silent killer, because it will kill BVR - outside of the detection range of the enemy fighter.