What are the futuristic technologies that are likely to show up in aircraft in the next 10-20 years? Maybe on a larger timescale?

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torginus

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Since the end of the Cold War, I feel like the progress in the domain of military aviation has crawled to a snail's pace.
AESA radar, high thrust engines, variable cycle, supersonic VTOL, stealth, advanced composites etc. that are the hallmark of a state-of-the-art or even futuristic aircraft today have all existed in the 80s as advanced prototypes/or bleeding edge production hardware.

I feel like, other than the monstrous increase in computing power, there is little modern technology that could surprise an 80s Skunkworks engineer.
And I suspect the improvements in processing speed translate to actual tangible advantages. My suspicion, that just as with conventional hardware, we have hit diminishing returns.

So my question is, what's the genuinely sci-fi tech that could make it to production in the coming decades?
Detonation engines? Photonic radar? Nuclear propulsion? (Sc)Ramjets on fighter? Plasma stealth? Fluid dynamic/plasma based TVC? Morphing skins?
 
Air frame and engine technology are comparatively mature, but there is still plenty of room for advancements of avionics.
One major challenge will be a shortage of skilled personnel in First-World countries.
We are already seeing electronic automation as a partial cure in First-World military aircraft: swarming, net-centric warfare, AI, etc.
A parallel step will be increased automation of civilian airplanes. As electric commuter airplanes are introduced, they will also incorporate increased automation in the cockpit until human pilots are mere formalities. We will see full-automated cockpits first in commuter airplanes serving concrete runways. Remote co-pilots will be the next step. This will allow more reliable dispatch rates in miserable weather, which will first benefit courier companies.
Those courier companies will soon introduce automated loading with LD-3 baggage containers.
 
The aircraft carrier killed the battleship and the SAM-2 killed the manned jets, it makes no sense to invest more in obsolete technologies. Any robot is superior to the most advanced fighter.
 
UAVs, singly or swarm, surely with 'Boss-Level' smarts trained on war-games...

'Rotating Detonation' may prove interesting, as could provide ram-jet thrust/weight from a standing start.

'Reaction Engine' Sabre Cycle, with its wondrously efficient heat-exchanger and potential for SSTO may change much. The simpler version, without rocket parts, allows hyper-cruise. Antipodal in a couple of hours, any-one ??

Disclosure: When I first read of RE's heat exchanger's capillary design, I contacted them suggesting they use 'Fast Fourier' frequency analysis of its 'Aeolian Harping' as diagnostics. They neither confirmed nor denied, but sent a BIG 'Smiley'...
 
Beyond AI pilots, AI or AI-assisted generals. Not only for the logistical firstest with the mostest, but taking an active role in strategy and tactics. The precedent is the 'centaur' concept in chess, where human players collaborate with AIs.

medium.com

“Centaurs” Are Often More Powerful than Computers

What Range by David Epstein teaches us about AI
medium.com medium.com
www.huffpost.com

Centaur Chess Shows Power of Teaming Human and Machine

The story of IBM's Deep Blue computer defeating world chess champion Garry Kasparov in 1997 has been told so many times that it's practically shorthand for the philosophical debate over man vs. machine.
www.huffpost.com www.huffpost.com

Advanced chess - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
Dragon's Teeth, or Grow Your Own Army. 3D printed guns are pretty crappy compared to military weapons, but the Wright Flyer was a pretty crappy plane compared to a modern fighter or airliner. 3D printing is in fact increasingly making an impact in industry and the advantage is that a printer that makes a ploughshare today can make a sword tomorrow. Moreover, if equipment (which might be disposable, single-use) can be made clandestinely at distributed locations, logistics takes on new dimensions.

Demonic Possession, or I'm Sorry Dave, I'm Afraid You're Cursed. There's an episode of Mr Robot in which it's demonstrated that smart homes might not be a good idea. If computers can be hacked, then the 'Internet of Things' means that smart appliances can be too. Roombas may not be very effective tanks even with cats riding them, but batteries are potential bombs, which is why you have to take your laptop on board a plane as carry-on luggage and it gets X-rayed beforehand. A co-ordinated cyberattack on a highly-integrated physical (infrastructure) system could not merely shut it down, but repurpose it for offensive purposes.

(50 Shades of) Gray War. There will be no black and white distinction between war and peace. Antagonists will try to seek advantage by crossing traditional boundaries between concepts. As long ago as WWI, Clemenceau said that war was too important to be left to the generals and today 'Hybrid War' is a manifestation of this crossing-over.

Also...

The emergence of a European Defence Force. The Ukraine-Russia standoff right now will certainly rattle European nations however it develops and support for Macron's efforts for a continental force will increase. I don't think that it will appear as a new institution, but emerge from existing structures simply for reasons of time and money. Buzzwords like 'flexibility,' 'commonality,' and 'interoperability' will dominate in planning and procurement. How is this different from an existing multinational organisation such as NATO? First, because it's 'more so' and secondly, it will exist virtually or as potential in multiple national forces, but when an algorithm with the authority of a Field Marshall determines that there's a certain probability that war has already started, then everyone changes their hats, badges, and flags (metaphorically). Intra-EU military procurement will be increasingly and formally co-ordinated and aimed not at reducing strategic arms but building a coherent transnational force: 'If you, a big nation, agrees to build an aircraft carrier, then we, a small nation, will agree to start producing/buying IFVs.'

Many of you who live in large countries with military forces that have wide capabilities may not appreciate this approach, but as a small country, New Zealand has had to make ruthless choices about what it can afford. We disbanded the combat wing of our air force decades ago, but retain the maritime patrol and logistics/transport wings. A navy that would serve our national interests best would consist of many River-class patrol boats and be deployed for fisheries and customs protection along with SAR. However, we have frigates that were procured (in a joint venture with Australia) specifically so that they could operate alongside other navies or substitute for ships in other navies that were called away to combat.

How would it work in practice? Dunno.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_MaJDK3VNE
 
It was suggested over a decade ago, that it would be possible to process and cancel a return radar reflection before that reflection left the complex composits that might become possible. That radar delaying materials matched with embedded recievers, processors and transmitters could achieve this.

Beyond outright invisibility to radar, it would also be possible to switch cancellation off and on at electric speeds across a fusilage.
The upshot of which is potentially the ability to create false velocity returns from real un-cancelled radar reflections.
Making it seem an aircraft is moving at a different speed to it's real speed.
Also to alter the size of the reflection, spoofing the recipient into thinking it is scanning a small UAV, instead of a large manned fighter.

The stitching together of multiple images from multiple cameras, in real time is central to the F35 DASS. This could increasingly become coupled to image processing, allowing the computers to identify and track objects in those real-time images.
Making impossible to hide targets within resolution of such cameras.

A more wacky option is to to use powerful stand-off radar illuminators and have just passive Reception of the reflections.

The rise of MANET (Mobile Ad-hoc Network) is another wonder still to play out to it's full potential. Obviating the need for nodes and a clear line of sight transmission. It is essentially graceful in degradation.

Flipside is optical LOS Comms, can be far more secure than microwave based systems.
The coupling of such optical comms with MANET is a powerful counter to current EW instruments.
 
I seem to remember reading in Flight about a decade ago that optical camouflage that could make a plane 'invisible' by blending it into the background colour was just around the corner...
 
Like James Bond's car. Maybe there are no warplanes 10 or 20yrs from now. What is everything
is done by satellites or space based weapons systems. You may never see your enemy or see
their weapons coming.
 

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