Virgin Galactic's orbital plans

Things not going rosy for the VSS either.


Not good at all coming on the back of the launch failure, if the investors win I could quite possibly see the end of Virgin Galactic which would be sad in the long term for Spaceflight. :(
 

VIRGIN ORBIT UPDATE ON UK MISSION ANOMALY
FEBRUARY 14, 2023 4:34PM EST

LONG BEACH, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- On 9 January 2023, during the first attempted orbital launch from the United Kingdom, Virgin Orbit’s LauncherOne experienced an anomaly, leading to a premature shutdown of the rocket and failure to reach orbit.

Virgin Orbit began its investigation into the failure within hours of the conclusion of the mission, under the leadership of distinguished aerospace veteran Jim Sponnick and Virgin Orbit Chief Engineer Chad Foerster. The failure investigation team received immediate access to extensive telemetry data collected during the mission from the ground stations in the UK, Ireland, and Spain, as well as systems onboard its carrier aircraft, providing a robust dataset that the investigation team has thoroughly examined.

The investigation includes oversight by U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch (acting as the Space Accident Investigation Authority (SAIA) for the United Kingdom) and also participation by personnel from the Department of Defense, National Transportation Safety Board, and the National Reconnaissance Office. The U.K. Civil Aviation Authority will also be involved in investigation process.

The investigation has confirmed that the Virgin Orbit team successfully executed pre-flight preparations, carrier aircraft takeoff, captive carry flight, and rocket release. The ignition, first stage flight, stage separation, second stage ignition, and fairing deployment of the LauncherOne rocket were nominal. Each of these milestones constituted a first-of-its-kind achievement for any orbital launch attempt from western Europe. LauncherOne performed successfully on all four prior operational flights, accurately delivering 33 payloads to their required orbits.

The investigation team is utilizing a comprehensive fault tree, a very detailed timeline, and several other products to conduct the investigation in a rigorous manner. Key observations at this point in the investigation:

The data is indicating that from the beginning of the second stage first burn, a fuel filter within the fuel feedline had been dislodged from its normal position.
Additional data shows that the fuel pump that is downstream of the filter operated at a degraded efficiency level, resulting in the Newton 4 engine being starved for fuel. Performing in this anomalous manner resulted in the engine operating at a significantly higher than rated engine temperature.
Components downstream and in the vicinity of the abnormally hot engine eventually malfunctioned, causing the second stage thrust to terminate prematurely.
The early thrust termination ended the mission, and the second stage and its payloads fell back to Earth, landing in the approved safety corridor in the Atlantic Ocean.
The investigation is employing a detailed action plan to develop key analyses and tests to replicate flight conditions and to aid in determining the root cause or causes of the failure. All potentially credible scenarios, including the one described above are being investigated. Numerous tests are underway to support the investigation and help lead to definitive conclusions. Ultimately, all credible causes of the failure will be addressed prior to the next LauncherOne mission.

Dan Hart, CEO of Virgin Orbit, said: “In space launch, a failure is painful for all involved. Intense disappointment gets quickly channeled into the motivation to dig into the cause, to understand all contributing elements and to thereby get back to flight with a better system and a wiser team. Our investigation is not yet complete; the team is hard at work and we’ll pursue the cause and contributors to wherever the system analysis takes us. However, with many clear clues from extensive data assessment now understood, we are modifying our next rocket with a more robust filter and we are looking broadly to assure that all credible contributors to mission failure are rooted out and addressed. With those modifications being incorporated on our factory floor, we will proceed cautiously toward the launch of our next rocket, which is well into the integration and test process.”

Virgin Orbit’s next launch will occur from the Mojave Air and Space Port in California for a commercial customer. The company anticipates announcing more details about that mission in the coming weeks.
 

Branson's Virgin Orbit to pause ops, furlough nearly all employees​


 

Branson's Virgin Orbit to pause ops, furlough nearly all employees​



So, that's the end then. You can't furlough all the staff and expect to resume operations.
 
View: https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1636118398093471744


Scoop - Virgin Orbit $VORB is pausing operations and beginning a nearly company-wide unpaid furlough, leadership told staff in an all hands meeting minutes ago, sources tell CNBC:


KEY POINTS

Virgin Orbit is furloughing nearly all its employees and pausing operations for a week as it looks for a funding lifeline.

Company executives briefed staff on the situation in an all-hands meeting at 5 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
 
View: https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1636118398093471744


Scoop - Virgin Orbit $VORB is pausing operations and beginning a nearly company-wide unpaid furlough, leadership told staff in an all hands meeting minutes ago, sources tell CNBC:


KEY POINTS

Virgin Orbit is furloughing nearly all its employees and pausing operations for a week as it looks for a funding lifeline.

Company executives briefed staff on the situation in an all-hands meeting at 5 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

It will be sad if it means that it is the end for Virgin Orbit. :(
 
View: https://twitter.com/shorealonefilms/status/1638012386941751296


Virgin Orbit's Boeing 747-400, "Cosmic Girl" at Long Beach Airport. Her fate doesnt look good. per CNBC. The latest on Virgin Orbit, as leadership continued to talk with investors through the weekend to find a funding lifeline 03-20-23

View: https://twitter.com/shorealonefilms/status/1638011971269435394


MORE:
Sad sight to see @ #VirginOrbit today… #AlmostEmptyParkingLot #SadSpace 03-20-23
 
Possibly just mostly dead. VO appear to be close to getting an additional $200 million from Matthew Brown (Why? Who knows?) Based on their previous spend rates, that probably buys them at best 5-6 months. Some VO staff are going back to work tomorrow to prep for the next planned launch.

 
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Indecent.
Startups are all about hypes and/or performances. Let's not forget that the entire world recently watched Virgin Galactic and Virgin Orbit launch attempts...
 
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Indecent.
Startups are all about hypes and/or performances. Let's not forget that the entire world recently watched Virgin Galactic and Virgin Orbit launch attempt...

And watched VO fail in that much hyped attempt. Which is probably why Virgin Orbit is dying now, instead of a couple of years from now.

I mean, the business model was a dead end anyway (too small, no growth path, etc.), but failing on a flight that was insanely spun up for weirdly nationalistic purposes was really bad. If that mission had worked, they might have angled for a OneWeb-like bailout to preserve a "sovereign UK launch capability." But now they don't even have a truly reliable launch capability, sovereign or otherwise.
 
A lot of actors around the world would have had interest in seeing this launch fail. The odds to succeed were thin.
Business wise, Branson would have known better than not selling his shares at the tip of a predictible increase in value, for what remains a seesaw share value (startup).
 
Let's see who will buy Virgin Orbit as it enters bankruptcy, I think that whoever takes over will have to put some serious money into it. If no one buy's VO I can see it being the end.
 
What about all the sensitive tech? I guess it would be hard for a non-US buyer to get its hands on.
 
It depends. I mean, how sensitive is it? One would think it would have to be conformal to certain standards. A trained technical crew on the other hand..
 
I do not think that whoever takes over VO will be allowed to know about the sensitive technology in the rocket or the launch plane, they should only be concerned with the business side of things and let the engineers worry about the technical stuff.
 
I do not think that whoever takes over VO will be allowed to know about the sensitive technology in the rocket or the launch plane, they should only be concerned with the business side of things and let the engineers worry about the technical stuff.

No one will be interested in buying VO as a going concern. Certainly not after VO fired85-90% of their staff. The remainder are probably mostly security guards, inventory management, and some IT folks, plus the accountants and maybe a few people who know what tech they have and where the files are saved.

And frankly, it's not obvious that VO's technology is all that valuable. RP-1/LOX motors are rather commonplace, and their unique air-launch tech is still a dead end approach no matter who owns it. I would not be totally surprised to discover that the engines on their 747 are the most valuable assets VO has left.
 
I think you miss the point: it's the only rocket business in the world that you can relocate anywhere.
You name it: Emirates, Africa, Asia. Wherever you want to set it, it will follow you.
And it's a turn key solution (well, nearly...).

This adds considerable value to the offer.
 
I could see Israel working with Ukraine to Skybolt this thing as payback for the loss of AN-225. Glomar it into a whopper of an air-to-surface missile carrier...
 
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I think you miss the point: it's the only rocket business in the world that you can relocate anywhere.
You name it: Emirates, Africa, Asia. Wherever you want to set it, it will follow you.
And it's a turn key solution (well, nearly...).

This adds considerable value to the offer.
The launcher is relocatable, the production facilities aren't. At least not easily, between the loss of technical knowledge and ITAR. VO's operations know-how is fading very fast with the layoffs and will probably be unrecoverable within a month or two -- the smart folks from VO probably already have offers elsewhere.

Plus, a very expensive aircraft isn't the only way to make a relocatable launch platform. ABL is demonstrating that you can launch with a set of cargo containers, a trailer, and and a flat piece of ground pretty much anywhere. Even a traditional site like Rocket Lab's Launch Complex One literally consists of a pad, a corrugated steel hangar, a fence, and a couple of fuel tanks. A competent construction firm could have it done in a couple of months, tops.
 
Do you realize that Space access is much facilitated (and efficient) depending on geography? That's what an air launch gives to you. Do you really think that an encroached small continental nation can do such with a container and a flat piece of ground?!

...

I fear that with our conversation we might have unleashed a furious @Archibald sick that his pedagogy didn't went through. :eek:


Regarding design and manufacturing, it doesn't even have to leave US ground. Strategic items might still be built there, especially if a degree of reusability is achieved.
 
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Air launch payload is too limited in mass and low orbits. Too many small launcher projects (two hundreds or even more !) while SpaceX had solen their marketshare by snatching small sats as Falcon 9 secondary payloads at bargain price.

747 helps a little but not much on the way to orbit, 900 m/s out of 9000 m/s, and that's NOT ten percent because the goddam fucking rocket equation is not linear / decimal but logarith / exponential in nature.

Btw satellite processing needs a clean / white room and this can't be moved along (wonder why they didn't put one inside the 747 belly, but that's another story).
 
The best temporary white room for a space vehicle is probably a rigorously void enclosure ;)
 
Do you realize that Space access is much facilitated (and efficient) depending on geography? That's what an air launch gives to you. Do you really think that an encroached small continental nation can do such with a container and a flat piece of ground?!

I'm not quite sure what you're getting at here.

The list of landlocked countries looking for sovereign access to space launch is pretty near zero. I can't think of a customer that meets the constraints you're suggesting.

The Israelis manage with some of the least favorable geography imaginable (there's a reason Ofeq goes to a retrograde orbit, after all). If a country is so hemmed in by hostile neighbors that they can't launch their own satellites, are those same neighbors going to allow a launcher aircraft to overfly them either?
 
Hostile isn't all about menacing military means. It can be your neighbor population not wanting a rocket overflying them regularly during coast up.
Think Switzerland, Singapore or Qatar.

Then airborne gives you also better geometry, proceeding with the launch over open sea, fair weather and closer to optimal orbit access routes.
 
There are too many small sat providers and not enough demand in my opinion especially with Falcon 9 offering ridesharing.

How can all these companies expect to compete and thrive when the supply outweighs the demand?

My personal prediction is SpaceX, RocketLab, and maybe 2-3 other companies will survive the next 10 years.
@TomcatViP
 
View: https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1658802901098135552


Virgin Orbit said it entered into a stalking horse agreement with Stratolaunch to sell mainly its aircraft assets, including the "Cosmic Girl" carrier aircraft, for $17 million in cash.

 
View: https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1658802901098135552


Virgin Orbit said it entered into a stalking horse agreement with Stratolaunch to sell mainly its aircraft assets, including the "Cosmic Girl" carrier aircraft, for $17 million in cash.


There are supposedly other interested parties, so Stratolaunch's bid is effectively a floor price. But it's also not far off the price of a used 747, so they clearly are pricing it for parts
 
Also, no OneWeb-style UK government buyout is in the offing.

 
VO is based in the US TomS, so I can agree with the UK Government's position on this matter. While it is sad that there won't be another OneWeb style buy out it is for someone who is based in the US with some serious money and the willpower to guide VO through these difficult times.
 
View: https://twitter.com/wapodavenport/status/1663724562029182979


"Branson, the company’s founder, sold nearly 75% of his shares for more than $1.4 billion before launch delays and high costs sent the stock down more than 90% from its all-time high and about 60% below the SPAC’s listing price."

"Many executives claimed during the boom that SPAC mergers were a better way for companies to go public than traditional initial public offerings"

“It wasn’t because it was a better financial technology—it was because it was just better for them.”

Kind of crazy that this kind insider trading is perfectly legal.
 
The remaining assets were purchased for the bargain basement price of $3.8 million. I saw bargain basement considering what Firefly are getting for their money.

View: https://twitter.com/spacenews_inc/status/1669746621838512128


Firefly to buy remaining Virgin Orbit assets

 
So - Stratolaunch got the 747, Rocketlab got the rockets, and Firefly got the rest ?
 

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