V Bombers instead of TSR2

failure of the ABM research told so potently.

Britain was, to put it simply, too close. USSR could counter any British missile defense by simply deploying more IRBM in Eastern Europe. IRBM were much cheaper to ICBM, so it was obvious that UK would not be able to create any efficient defense.

It MIGHT be justifable if ABM was deployed to provide additional defense to silo- or mobile missiles... Problem is, that any kind of ship-based solution would still be more efficient.
 
#40 Arch: Tornado was indeed a bargain: nit-picking about delay/cost of collaboration misses the point that a solo UK-Tornado would have been chopped at some point between its start, 5/68 and production commitment, say 10 years later. MBB titanium wing centre box was licensed from Grumman F-14A, essentially F-111B; first avionics suite defined in 1971/72 included Texas TFR/GMR from F-111 (was it D?) and other FRG-led US kit, like LITEF Main Computer, was also from F-111 models.

#10 Hood: be no more mystified on apparent lack of B-52H-like upgrades of UK V-Bombers. Between 6/60, Skybolt Agreement, and 4/63, Polaris Agreement, MBF took highest priority - say in Mods. - other types had mods. introduced only after all pre-mod. stock was consumed: but for Mk.2 Victor/Vulcan...Now! or sooner! But as we tussled to work through operational realities, one by one we deleted expensive nice-to-haves: contrail suppression, autoland; we bought TFR, ECM, and poured concrete on three dozen dispersal sites, all without working through the logic. When we did, we thought we would replace Mk.2 Vs with VC10 as loitering, even Continuous Airborne Alert Skybolt platforms. That is why BOAC was given largesse to not cancel their Super order. Then 12/62 Skybolt, so RAF-as-Deterrent platform, went away. For the uses to which Victor/Vulcan were put after RN took that, mid-1969, every cost factor was higher than anything bespoke - 5 crew for Vulcan B.2MRR? Every cost factor bar one: acquisition capital, which was £0. So they served on, well, flexibly, until becoming just too hard.
 
No Valiant B.2's ....

Regards
Pioneer
Short production run planned for 25-50 Target Marker 'Pathfinder' aircraft. They were never intended to replace the Valiant Fleet.
 
Still mystifies me why after putting literately the entire resources of the aircraft industry into building them that the V-Bombers never got any improvements following the Mk.2 versions beyond adding a TFR to the Vulcan and tinkering with some SLAR technology for Victor and of course the Blue Steel saga. The Vuclans still had a nominal nuclear strike role until 1980 and yet were flying museums of state of the art circa 1957.

We have a thread on V-bomber avionic developments here.

It's probably just a matter of roles and timing, the last major planned upgrade for the Vulcan was the conversion for Skybolt carriage, and that was limited to what was required specifically for the Skybolt mission. Once that was cancelled the Vulcan fleet was always interim to something, Polaris, then F-111K (only very briefly), then AFVG and then MRCA, which became Tornado but arrived significantly later than planned. Much of this during the lean times of the 1970s.

Another thought came to my mind. Skybolt had its own asterial navigation system, did it actually require any upgrading of the navigational equipment on board the Vulcan to get its location fix before launch?
If not it might explain why there was no impetus to do anything to the V-bombers; let the 'smart' weapons do the legwork and we'll just keep running a bus service to Moscow with these old crates. It must have seemed a big boon to at a stroke increase the fighting potential of the V-force at the cost of buying some missiles and some re-wiring work for two hardpoints. Lots of bang per pounds, shillings and pence.
 
What were the relative prices of the Valiant, Vulcan and Victor.
 
I have seen no numbers, probably because there are none. UK (and US) did not see a need, or possibility, to collect all costs to acquire any one product. When you see £5,000 per Spitfire, £50,000 per Heavy, these were...just numbers. The deployed military asset had stores and kit ex-inventory, with no-one in charge of guessing a total. So, when we negotiated with US Mutual Security Program Office for a "50%" contribution to Valiant Unit price, that was...just a number. With radio? Tow bar? Clearly not with nice new Officers' Mess for the new all-Officer crew. That is Functional Costing, which is still not fully applied in UK, because nothing would ever be bought if we did that. (20,000 extra police officers? No chance if you calculate back to a shift-on-the-beat the 30 years' of pension they will enjoy after 30 years' service).

We had 3 deployed from (at least 5 prototype schemes: AWA flying wing, Short aero-isoclinic wing) without measuring cost-of-acquisition of any. Choices of: not proceeding with Valiant B.2, of duplicating Mks.1 Victor/Vulcan, then duplicating Mks. 2, then reducing Victor Mk.2, then not buying Phase upgrades of Vulcan, were not driven by comparative acquisition cost, nor certainly by comparative cost-of-ownership, as we had no means of collecting that, did not comprehend the concept.

Ministers were told late-64 of £10Mn .Valiant R&D, “£57Mn. cost to RAF (for) 100" {they had 104} Wynn,P486.
Valiant Unit price >£350,000 Gunston,Bombers P.53.
V+
Thor, 1961: “deterrent Forces...10% (of) Defence budget"; 8/57 guess: Mk.1 Victor/Vulcan: £750K Unit cost. C.Ashworth,Bomber Cmnd, 95 ,PSL, P162.
Wynn,P55 has US’ ’64 guess £1Bn. for Mk.1 V-Force+B.Danube/V.Club/R.Beard/Y.Sun 1.
Who knows?
 
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Did it matter?
Cost of not having delivery system is?
 
Despite the Vulcan extreme coolness-factor, I often think the real lost opportunity was not to build more Victor. That was one hell of a terrific bomber.
If medium-subsonic bombers of the 50's were to be ranked, I would guess
- Victor
- Tu-16
- Vulcan
- Valiant
- B-47
 
The fatigue problems led to the Valiant being replaced from 1965 in the tanker role by converted Victors but the squadrons assigned to SACEUR at Marham were not replaced until 1968 when Vulcans gave up carrying Blue Steel.
Frustrated by TSR2 being out of control with no cost estimates sticking, the Home government finds itself still in office with a majority of three.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Maudling (there s no money cock!) tells the newly formed MOD its big ticket items must go.
TSR2 heads the list of projects. With dollars to valuable to spend on F111 or F4 the RAF is told to run on the Vulcan B1 as a UK based replacement for Valiants and Canberras assogned to SACEUR. From 1968 they will be replaced by Vulcan B2.
Sale of BuccaneerS50 to S Africa continues. The RAF is told to buy S2s to replace P1154 in RAF Germany.
The RAF lobby hard to have Hercules replace the troubled 681 They are told to buy a mix of Hercs and more Belfasts.
The Navy are told that F4 is to be cancelled to save scarce dollars and that CVA01 is too complicated and expensive. It must run on two existing carriers (Eagle and Hermes) into the 70s.
It is encouraged to work with RAF on a fighter derived from the BAC P45 which becomes AFVG in 1966, UKVG in 67 and MRCA in 68.
The resulting aircraft is small and powerful enough to operate off Hermes. Two new carriers (Furious and Illustrious are laid down in 1972 and 1976 A third, Ark Royal, is laid down in 1980).





.
One needs to follow the Operational Requirement (OR) not the money, until later. Originally, the TSR 2 was to replace the Canberra; however, Watkinson (Defence Minister at the time) wanted the TSR 2 to have a strategic capability! The first of the 'moving requirement goalposts'. As a consequence of movinig the goalposts, a redesign had to take place; one cannot just increase range, weight, bomb bay strengths, etc... without having to readdress them. More money! Added to the foregoing there were two project managers: one MOD, the other BAC, but only one system design authority, BAC. In a contract of the nature in question, if the MOD wants to change something, or find out what would happen if the MOD did change the something, it is an additional 'line item' in the contract, more money! However, the design authority was not strong enough to hold the task together, with the result more money was being wasted! The Government drew the plug on the grounds of cost, and placed the blame on the contractor. So now enters the F-111, said to be a 'swing-wing' fighter-bomber; this aircraft had two major weaknesses: firstly, the wing pivots upon which were placed enormous aerodynamic loads; secondly, the combat fighter role, your wing loading is too high for any good manoeuvrability. Think about air-to-air combat and what it involves, wide variations in altitude, speed, and 'g' loading. Example: you are initially staright and level at 25,000 feet flying Mach 1.5, and are about to be attacked from the forward quarter, so you turn into your attacker, but you need to slow down to get a reduced radius turn, you have have to bring your wings forward which takes too long; you have just lost the engagement! Another feature to look at in this sorry saga is the way in which defence equipment was procured, but that's for another time.
 
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Think about air-to-air combat and what it involves, wide variations in altitude, speed, and 'g' loading. Example: you are initially staright and level at 25,000 feet flying Mach 1.5, and are about to be attacked from the forward quarter, so you turn into your attacker, but you need to slow down to get a reduced radius turn, you have have to bring your wings forward which takes too long; you have just lost the engagement!
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the F-14 seems to have made it work. Granted, both it and the Tornado ADV are predominantly interceptors rather than air-superiority fighters; but Hollywood aside, I was under the impression that for its day, the Tomcat was quite competitive.
 
Think about air-to-air combat and what it involves, wide variations in altitude, speed, and 'g' loading. Example: you are initially staright and level at 25,000 feet flying Mach 1.5, and are about to be attacked from the forward quarter, so you turn into your attacker, but you need to slow down to get a reduced radius turn, you have have to bring your wings forward which takes too long; you have just lost the engagement!
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the F-14 seems to have made it work. Granted, both it and the Tornado ADV are predominantly interceptors rather than air-superiority fighters; but Hollywood aside, I was under the impression that for its day, the Tomcat was quite competitive.
When you say 'made it work' what do you mean? Have you any information on air-to-air engagements with non-US fighters that shows superior manoeuvre performance of the F-14? When I talk about air combat manoeuvre, I mean 'stick and rudder' combat; that does not necessarily imply higher speeds. If you look at air-to-air combat in Vietnam between the F-4 and the MIG-21 you find the MIG-21 performance superior in most cases to the F-4. The F-4 had better engines, its climb rate was faster than the MIG-21; however, the F-4 had a higher wing loading than the MIG-21, so its manoeuvre performance was not as good, The original design of the F-4 did not include guns! The pentagon said that guns were outdated, so they were not fitted. The missiles on the other hand ( the AIM-7 and the AIM-9) had a dreadful performance; so back to guns in podded form. The ADV variant of the Tornado was derived from the original Tornado; it was not a 'stick and rudder' air superiority fighter, such as the F-16. I know the F-16 appeared later, but its design was largely influenced by a Colonel John Boyd USAF. Boyd wrote a book on air-to-air combat; it's a good read (he also invented the OODA Loop for assessment of transient options!)
 
Have you any information on air-to-air engagements with non-US fighters that shows superior manoeuvre performance of the F-14? When I talk about air combat manoeuvre, I mean 'stick and rudder' combat; that does not necessarily imply higher speeds.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Sidra_incident_(1981)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Sidra_incident_(1989)

Both resulted in air to air kills.


Tomcats obtained a firing position but did not have weapon-release clearance.

Numerous air to air kills are reported in Iranian service.
 
Shame GB couldn't sell some V-bombers to France for the force de frappe... the twist would be: Mirage IVA is already the nuclear bomber BUT the Victor (or Vulcan, eventually) can be bought as a tanker (instead of the C-135FR) with a secondary nuclear bomber capability...
 
The humiliation of France and Britain at Suez in 1956 by the USA threatening to pull the financial plug might have led to the UK joining France in becoming sceptical about the nuclear guarantee of NATO.
Instead of Blue Streak and Skybolt, the 1957 Sandys Review "Lessons of the recent Egyptian Crisis" leads to development of a French led joint programme to develop an IRBM/Space Launcher called Diamant/Blue Gem.
The UK will provide a force of Victor B/SR/K2 aircraft and France the Mirage IV. The Vulcan force will be replaced by the Vickers/Dassault Super Mirage/Vindicator powered by the same Olympus engines as the Sud Aviation/Bristol Alliance supersonic airliner.
 
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Have you any information on air-to-air engagements with non-US fighters that shows superior manoeuvre performance of the F-14? When I talk about air combat manoeuvre, I mean 'stick and rudder' combat; that does not necessarily imply higher speeds.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Sidra_incident_(1981)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Sidra_incident_(1989)

Both resulted in air to air kills.


Tomcats obtained a firing position but did not have weapon-release clearance.

Numerous air to air kills are reported in Iranian service.
Yes, I've seen these reports before. Firstly, the skill, professionalism, and training of the US pilots is very high, particularly if they are graduates of the Fighter Weapons School at Nellis AFB in Nevada (as was Col John Boyd USAF). Secondly, the US aircraft in both events were under control by other air assets. Thirdly in the 1981 incident; the AA-2 Atoll missile was a direct copy of the US AIM-9B (which was a miserable failure in Vietnam); the versions the US fighters were launching was the AIM-9L (a much improved missile compared to the B version (the AIM-9 is an IR missile, while the AIM-7 is a semi-active missile). In the later engagement, there was only one visual instance of a 'hard' turn by the pilot (if you listen to the breathing of the pilot, there was little change indicating medium 'g' turn) which was just before the rear quarter engagement. In the second incident the Libyans were using early versions of the AIM-7. From the audio, only one US pilot called 'Tally' (a Vis ID), the second US pilot converted his 'Fox 1" head-on to a "Fox 2" rear quarter shot. A good day's work, but the actions did not exercise combat engagement such as those in Vietnam between F-4s and MIG 21s where manoeuvre, rather than 3rd agency control, was the order/survival of the day.

Having just thought about what I said is not quite true; in Vietnam the Americans did try to set up an early warning for F-4s and F-105s flying in 'MIG Alley' but owing to communications issues it did not work as well as it should have done.
 
One needs to follow the Operational Requirement (OR) not the money, until later. Originally, the TSR 2 was to replace the Canberra; however, Watkinson (Defence Minister at the time) wanted the TSR 2 to have a strategic capability! The first of the 'moving requirement goalposts'. As a consequence of movinig the goalposts, a redesign had to take place; one cannot just increase range, weight, bomb bay strengths, etc... without having to readdress them. More money! Added to the foregoing there were two project managers: one MOD, the other BAC, but only one system design authority, BAC. In a contract of the nature in question, if the MOD wants to change something, or find out what would happen if the MOD did change the something, it is an additional 'line item' in the contract, more money! However, the design authority was not strong enough to hold the task together, with the result more money was being wasted! The Government drew the plug on the grounds of cost, and placed the blame on the contractor.

So what were these changes from the TSR2 being a Canberra replacement to a strategic capability ?

Watkinson was defence minister from 59 to 62

The tactical Canberra carried 8 x 1000lbs bombs or Nuclear weapons over a 850mile radius of action.

By way of an example, the Strategic Victor carried 35 x 1000lbs with a range of 5217 n miles, radius of action 2500 n miles.

So let’s follow the OR evolution as you suggest;-

OR339 iss1 was raised in May57. Para 7 defines it roles as (a) delivering low level tactical nuclear weapons with a weather limited range (b) tactical reconnaissance (c) tactical electronically reconnaissance (d) delivery of tactical nuclear weapons at medium/high level in all weather (e) Delivery of conventional weapons in place of the nuclear weapons. Further on it specified 4 x 1000lbs, with an overload capability of 6 x 1000lbs. Para 17 requires a radius of action at 1000 n miles.

This was replaced by OR343 iss1 on 8 May 59.

Heading 3 defines it roles as (a) tactical reconnaissance all weather (b) delivering low level tactical nuclear weapons without a weather limited range (c) Delivery of conventional weapons in place of the nuclear weapons (d) a flexible medium level strike and reconnaissance. Further on it specified 4 x 1000lbs bombs with a radius of action at 1000 n miles.

In essence this is down scoped from OR339.

OR343 iss 2 was raised on 2 May 61. There were no changes to the Heading 3 “Roles” or radius of action. However the number of conventional bombs was raised to 6 (back up to OR339)

Amendment 1 was in Aug 61. This introduced the internal carriage of two tactical nuclear weapons ( The newly emerging WE177 package size allowed this with close to no modifications)

Amendment 2 occurred after 62.

Clearly the contractual specification documents do not record an evolution into a strategic role, during Watkinson defence minister period, in fact, quite the opposite. So he did not drive cost into the project by moving the goal posts as claimed. TSR2 at no point in it’s life came close to a strategic level role, and proposals to future enhance it with stand off missile had zero impact on development costs.

The reality is that contractual OR evolution, with only two issues and 5 amendments, all of which are minor in nature, means new or revision to, requirements can be categorically ruled out as a cancellation contributor.

As for your assertion on the project management structure/eventually cancellation, I would suggest this is a gross over simplification of what really went on.

I would recommend you read “TSR2 Britain’s lost. Bomber” by Damien Burke. It explains in detail the issues and problems with the project.
 
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The confusion over the TSR2's role inflation is due in part to the politics of the 1964 General Election in which various politicians and journalists stressed the nuclear role of the TSR2 as part of a wider campaign against Britain's nuclear deterrent.
The Labour Government rowed back on its electoral rhetoric and kept Polaris (albeit with one less SSBN) and the V force until Polaris arrived.
TSR2 and later F111K became confusingly involved in the debate over Britain's East of Suez forces. The NATO and CENTO nuclear role as Canberra and Valiant replacement with WE177s was in fact more crucial. But TSR2 and F111K die because their costs kept going up.. The replacement with Vulcans in the UK and Cyprus and later with Buccaneers in Germany was a much better use of Britain's limited resources.
A Canberra replacement should have looked closer to Buccaneer than TSR2 from the beginning. Replacing the 48 Valiants later Vulcans was a harder call. In the event the US provided the Lakenheath F111 wing to plug the NATO gap when the Vulcans retired.
Tornado was limited by German participation to a shorter range smaller aircraft that finally filled the gap left by cancelling TSR2 and P1154.
A larger longer ranged Tornado (UKVG) was technically feasible but beyond the means of the cash strapped Britain of 1968.
 
How close did the supersonic variant of Victor come to be adopted? Was it purely a company sponsored proposal or was it developed against a specific requirements?
 
ztc #57: You are challenging Received Wisdom (RW) 3 times: RW is that Mission creep, tactical-strategic:
- was Min.of Defence Watkinson's idea (or at least #50 has it so);
- adversely impacted BAC cost/time to deliver TSR.2; specifically:
- substitution of WE177 for Red Beard was a delaying factor.
You say, No! No! No!

I think you have a hat-trick of 3 goals.

RW is also of BAC incompetence/, and/or of politicians' (Wilson/Healey's) shenanigans/, or worse. I say, No!

The cost/time drift that killed it was not caused by weapon options. (This forum's CJG), Aeroplane 9/18 has schemes for carriage, B43, RB, WE177A, WE177B, and for 10 ASMs in (his term) the gap-filler “flap”, 12/62 (Skybolt chop)-4/63 (Polaris Sales Agreement). I say you, ztc, are right, that None contributed to the embarrassment endured by (27/6/60) Minister of Aviation/(13/7/62) Defence P.Thorneycroft (PT).

PT
arrived to a MoA 9/12/59 Estimate of £90Mn.R&D/£1.7Mn. Unit; (shortly after PT lost his job 16/10/64) new Ministers went to DC (to discuss a/c and Defence), briefed on £741Mn. (R&D, £272Mn.+158 a/c), cf.£332Mn. for 158xF-111K. Wynn,P513/519/523/537/542. PT had received CAS ACM Elworthy's pitch for TSR.2 deletion, urging fixed-$ F-111A: he “had accepted (TSR.2) canx. (Costs) were escalating rapidly (quantity was) being steadily cut (he) feared that it would run the whole of the RAF budget dry” M.Quinlan(MoD,PS/CAS),RAFHS Jnl.24,01,P10.

So: whose fault then? I say: well, no-one, really.


Many experiments hit the buffers. Maybe PT should have chopped as soon as new (1/9/63) CAS gave him the chance. “albatross round our necks (Healey) took the decision which would have had to be taken by (a Tory Govt. MoD was) writing (it) would have (to go) just that (Labour) took the opprobrium” B.Jackson/E.Bramall, Chiefs,Brassey,92,P361. It's pragmatic, not a fault, for a decision-maker to kick a hot potato to his successor.

It wasn't really Industry's fault: what we tried to do at go-ahead (3/6/59 airframe, 18/12/59 B.Ol.22R) was to guess weapon, avionics, Mission domains a decade thence. So, recce: changed by (a different) Corona (KH-1, 11/8/60). Technology galloped. Not really BAC's fault, even at the point of cancellation, when Wilson offered to take as flyaways the 50 sets of material on order...at a flat fixed price which BAC could not assess: they had no clue what an engine (should) cost - R&D or Unit production. A tow-bar. MoA (till then) issued all that, free.

But, as this is AH: what if BAC had called Wilson's bluff, and a couple of years later did a Lockheed (C-5, 1970): said: we're too big to fail, so pay. Well...11/67 we quit East of Suez. Healey tried to have maybe 30 (then F-111K) delivered for RAFG; maybe in AH the OCU by then had a few TSR.2s? Would we have allowed avoidable spend to complete those too far down the line to be chopped, taken them, used them awhile before the impossibility of holding any military readiness on all this obsolete avionics, and withdrawn them? Look at the open equipment bay of the RAFM Cosford a/c...and weep for the sparks.
 
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Ken
Too true. Approx half my forty plus years in the industry has ended up in the scrap bin, mostly military projects but a few civil as well. Frequently the public misconception is that a project fails for single reason;- whilst I’m sure there might an example or two of this, in my personal experience is that they fail because of an accumulation of unfortunate and unforeseen events. A few of my successful projects have had choke points where failure has been but a hairs breath away....again a build up of unfortunate events.

Inspiring leadership at the top is key, and this is where the Military suffer in the age where projects take decades;- the top level cycles through various people many of which are not suited providing any leadership.

Technical ambition is next key, too little and it’s useless hence a worthless liability. To much and it sucks money like you wouldn’t believe, risks not flying all together, and furthermore only prices itself out of the market upon completion . A project’s ambition needs to sit in the Goldilocks zone which is very difficult to call at its launch. This is best done by a technically informed individual with vision and imagination. (Note;- it’s singular, committees <as per big company or defence senior staff thinking> are generally pretty poor at this)

These two factors are what Space X have got so right;- as can be observed, get em right and the results are spectacular.
 
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I was with Marconi Space awhile when pay was rubbish but graduates in (now IT) had no choice but to spend a couple of years there, to flesh out the CV. MSDS was the only place in UK that understood giga...
Now they go straight to Pixar or Marvel, paid more than Defence seniors.

Add on the point made somewhere here, that archives stop when paper stopped, c. year 2000, so we know nothing of decision-making processes of today. So how do we not make the same mistakes our fathers made?

There's a biz school project: compare and contrast, management process of Blue Streak, Space X.
 
TSR 2 was conceived as a low-level attack aircraft, rather in the way that the Low Altitude Bomber of the early 1950s was designed.

Could any of the V bombers succeed in this role? Well, obviously neither the Valiant or the Victor. The Vulcan could go in at low level, and indeed, after the cancellation of Skybolt, the WE177B low-level fusion device was produced in the rather fantastical idea that a Vulcan could go in over Moscow at low level and drop this device successfully.

Any nuclear deterrent has to be "credible". I would suggest that the idea of a Vulcan flying over Moscow at 100 feet to drop a free fall nuclear weapon stretches credibility to its limit.
 
One needs to follow the Operational Requirement (OR) not the money, until later. Originally, the TSR 2 was to replace the Canberra; however, Watkinson (Defence Minister at the time) wanted the TSR 2 to have a strategic capability! The first of the 'moving requirement goalposts'. As a consequence of movinig the goalposts, a redesign had to take place; one cannot just increase range, weight, bomb bay strengths, etc... without having to readdress them. More money! Added to the foregoing there were two project managers: one MOD, the other BAC, but only one system design authority, BAC. In a contract of the nature in question, if the MOD wants to change something, or find out what would happen if the MOD did change the something, it is an additional 'line item' in the contract, more money! However, the design authority was not strong enough to hold the task together, with the result more money was being wasted! The Government drew the plug on the grounds of cost, and placed the blame on the contractor.

So what were these changes from the TSR2 being a Canberra replacement to a strategic capability ?

Watkinson was defence minister from 59 to 62

The tactical Canberra carried 8 x 1000lbs bombs or Nuclear weapons over a 850mile radius of action.

By way of an example, the Strategic Victor carried 35 x 1000lbs with a range of 5217 n miles, radius of action 2500 n miles.

So let’s follow the OR evolution as you suggest;-

OR339 iss1 was raised in May57. Para 7 defines it roles as (a) delivering low level tactical nuclear weapons with a weather limited range (b) tactical reconnaissance (c) tactical electronically reconnaissance (d) delivery of tactical nuclear weapons at medium/high level in all weather (e) Delivery of conventional weapons in place of the nuclear weapons. Further on it specified 4 x 1000lbs, with an overload capability of 6 x 1000lbs. Para 17 requires a radius of action at 1000 n miles.

This was replaced by OR343 iss1 on 8 May 59.

Heading 3 defines it roles as (a) tactical reconnaissance all weather (b) delivering low level tactical nuclear weapons without a weather limited range (c) Delivery of conventional weapons in place of the nuclear weapons (d) a flexible medium level strike and reconnaissance. Further on it specified 4 x 1000lbs bombs with a radius of action at 1000 n miles.

In essence this is down scoped from OR339.

OR343 iss 2 was raised on 2 May 61. There were no changes to the Heading 3 “Roles” or radius of action. However the number of conventional bombs was raised to 6 (back up to OR339)

Amendment 1 was in Aug 61. This introduced the internal carriage of two tactical nuclear weapons ( The newly emerging WE177 package size allowed this with close to no modifications)

Amendment 2 occurred after 62.

Clearly the contractual specification documents do not record an evolution into a strategic role, during Watkinson defence minister period, in fact, quite the opposite. So he did not drive cost into the project by moving the goal posts as claimed. TSR2 at no point in it’s life came close to a strategic level role, and proposals to future enhance it with stand off missile had zero impact on development costs.

The reality is that contractual OR evolution, with only two issues and 5 amendments, all of which are minor in nature, means new or revision to, requirements can be categorically ruled out as a cancellation contributor.

As for your assertion on the project management structure/eventually cancellation, I would suggest this is a gross over simplification of what really went on.

I would recommend you read “TSR2 Britain’s lost. Bomber” by Damien Burke. It explains in detail the issues and problems with the project.
Apologies for the delay in my reply. I spent 20 years flying aeroplanes in the Royal Air Force (RAF) therefore can argue that I know well one side of an Operational Requirement (OR); further, I spent 35 years as an air electronics systems design engineer in the Defence Industry, so I also know well the procurement side of ORs from design, develop, test, and manufacture of the required equipment. At the time in question, a military requirement started with a Staff Target, the Air Staff giving a ‘heads-up’ on what they are going to ask for; this Air Staff Target (AST) is followed by a General OR (GOR 339), in turn followed by the OR. An OR is what the Army/Navy/Air Force OR Branch thinks it needs to best meet warfare needs in the future, as spelt out in the latest Defence White Paper. OR Branch staff are not usually engineers, so they will seek advice from industry on what is possible to provide by way of equipment to meet the White Paper threat in 10-15 years’ time; which I have been involved in, so I do not need educating in ORs. However, the OR is not the specification[1]; the specification was issued by the Ministry of Supply (MoS), its reference was something like B 35/46, but the TSR 2 was never given an MoS reference and was just known as OR 343. The two down selected companies (out of nine) were English Electric and Vickers Armstrong, and the contract was awarded for a EE-Vickers joint project. In 1959 the Air Ministry sought Treasury approval for the TSR 2 for full development to Controller Air (CA) release, but only limited approval was given; the whole matter was to be reviewed, including an assessment of the Buccaneer. Three months later Harold Watkinson, as Minister of Defence asked the Chief of Staff for full review on the necessity of the TSR 2. In May of 1960, the Minister asked for a full study to give the TSR 2 a strategic capability by carrying a stand-off missile such as Blue Steel, the Government just having cancelled the supersonic strategic bomber, the Avro 730.

The amalgamation of EE and Vickers was not voluntary, but imposed by the MoS (a shotgun marriage!) You cannot bring two companies together and expect them to act as a single company straightaway; in modern parlance it is called management of change. In my experience (my company was taken over three times!) it takes between one and two years for the single company to become effective and, yes, you can expect to spend a large sum of money in the process of merging! BAC was formed 1 January 1960.

What was not recognised at the time by either the Ministry of Aviation (MoA) or the manufacturer, was the working and cost of Titanium metal for the aircraft fabric; this metal was needed because of airframe heating at the speeds at which the TSR 2 was expected to fly (about 146°C, Concord was about 127°C). This problem was compounded by the (MoA) going against the consortium’s recommendation for the engines to be outside the fuselage; to put the engines inside the fuselage would need extensive heat shielding, therebye adding weight, increasing the wing loading (which was already high) lowering the manoeuvrability of the aircraft, as well as adding re-working costs. Another example is the designers wanted Rolls Royce engines, but the MoA overrode this and told them to use Bristol Siddeley engines, yet more cost. There were several occasions where the MoA overrode what the designers wanted to do: again, adding to the costs. There were several lines of development: airframe, engines, nav attack system, and reconnaissance system. The nav attack system was on the cusp of analogue and digital electronics which caused a lot of problems, while the recce system would come last in development. The hardware to software ratio of TSR 2 was in the order of 95% to 5%; for the F-35 it is about 5% to 95%!

Many years ago I was an engineer on a military high-speed data link. At a cocktail party for MOD personnel in Whitehall just before Christmas, I was asked by the MOD project manager to write a paper on including an additional function to the data link. As well as moving the goalposts, this question took my team of 11 engineers 10 man-days of effort to understand the implications, let alone write the paper. The cost to the company was some £85,000 which the MOD (PE) did not pick up! There were many such ‘moving-the-goal-posts’ requests. A friend of mine who co-wrote OR 334 said the biggest impediment to progress in TSR 2 development was that Whitehall ‘spawned’ committees, the consequence of which was to make an already suspect project management worse! Relations between the MoS, MoA, and the Air Ministry went from bad to worse, and infecting the MOD. This lack of trust exacerbated the financial arrangements; to add to the confusion, the OR was ‘upped’ on several occasions. Thus, the MoS/MoA, who in many ways were the pro- genitors of the project forfeited the trust of all, primarily because of the inaccuracy of their forecasts and their inability to oversee and organise the management of the project as a whole. My previous submission stands.

The epitaph for TSR2 was best put by Sir Sydney Camm, designer of the Hawker Hurricane. ‘All modern aircraft have four dimensions: span, length, height and politics. TSR2 got just the first three right.’

One final point is that I do a lot of research work, and I find that quite often different sources give differing information on the same subject. If you ask a soldier at the front “how went the war?” he will give you an answer; if you ask the General the same question, you will usually get a different answer. The moral here is that historical accounts often differ in perspective and detail, one does not get the full story if you get your information from a single source.

A question: Who was the TSR 2 design authority?

Your Victor range is somewhat high (OR 229,230, B 35/46).



[1] None of the V-bombers got the full OR, or specification.
 
Certainly the two engines that seem preferred, were the Conway and Medway turbofans.
Bristol, sadly had a potential winner in variations of the straight through Pegasus, but nothing came of these.
 
Apologies for the delay in my reply. I spent 20 years flying aeroplanes in the Royal Air Force (RAF) therefore can argue that I know well one side of an Operational Requirement (OR); further, I spent 35 years as an air electronics systems design engineer in the Defence Industry, so I also know well the procurement side of ORs from design, develop, test, and manufacture of the required equipment. At the time in question, a military requirement started with a Staff Target, the Air Staff giving a ‘heads-up’ on what they are going to ask for; this Air Staff Target (AST) is followed by a General OR (GOR 339), in turn followed by the OR. An OR is what the Army/Navy/Air Force OR Branch thinks it needs to best meet warfare needs in the future, as spelt out in the latest Defence White Paper. OR Branch staff are not usually engineers, so they will seek advice from industry on what is possible to provide by way of equipment to meet the White Paper threat in 10-15 years’ time; which I have been involved in, so I do not need educating in ORs. However, the OR is not the specification[1]; the specification was issued by the Ministry of Supply (MoS), its reference was something like B 35/46, but the TSR 2 was never given an MoS reference and was just known as OR 343. The two down selected companies (out of nine) were English Electric and Vickers Armstrong, and the contract was awarded for a EE-Vickers joint project. In 1959 the Air Ministry sought Treasury approval for the TSR 2 for full development to Controller Air (CA) release, but only limited approval was given; the whole matter was to be reviewed, including an assessment of the Buccaneer. Three months later Harold Watkinson, as Minister of Defence asked the Chief of Staff for full review on the necessity of the TSR 2. In May of 1960, the Minister asked for a full study to give the TSR 2 a strategic capability by carrying a stand-off missile such as Blue Steel, the Government just having cancelled the supersonic strategic bomber, the Avro 730.

The amalgamation of EE and Vickers was not voluntary, but imposed by the MoS (a shotgun marriage!) You cannot bring two companies together and expect them to act as a single company straightaway; in modern parlance it is called management of change. In my experience (my company was taken over three times!) it takes between one and two years for the single company to become effective and, yes, you can expect to spend a large sum of money in the process of merging! BAC was formed 1 January 1960.

What was not recognised at the time by either the Ministry of Aviation (MoA) or the manufacturer, was the working and cost of Titanium metal for the aircraft fabric; this metal was needed because of airframe heating at the speeds at which the TSR 2 was expected to fly (about 146°C, Concord was about 127°C). This problem was compounded by the (MoA) going against the consortium’s recommendation for the engines to be outside the fuselage; to put the engines inside the fuselage would need extensive heat shielding, therebye adding weight, increasing the wing loading (which was already high) lowering the manoeuvrability of the aircraft, as well as adding re-working costs. Another example is the designers wanted Rolls Royce engines, but the MoA overrode this and told them to use Bristol Siddeley engines, yet more cost. There were several occasions where the MoA overrode what the designers wanted to do: again, adding to the costs. There were several lines of development: airframe, engines, nav attack system, and reconnaissance system. The nav attack system was on the cusp of analogue and digital electronics which caused a lot of problems, while the recce system would come last in development. The hardware to software ratio of TSR 2 was in the order of 95% to 5%; for the F-35 it is about 5% to 95%!

Many years ago I was an engineer on a military high-speed data link. At a cocktail party for MOD personnel in Whitehall just before Christmas, I was asked by the MOD project manager to write a paper on including an additional function to the data link. As well as moving the goalposts, this question took my team of 11 engineers 10 man-days of effort to understand the implications, let alone write the paper. The cost to the company was some £85,000 which the MOD (PE) did not pick up! There were many such ‘moving-the-goal-posts’ requests. A friend of mine who co-wrote OR 334 said the biggest impediment to progress in TSR 2 development was that Whitehall ‘spawned’ committees, the consequence of which was to make an already suspect project management worse! Relations between the MoS, MoA, and the Air Ministry went from bad to worse, and infecting the MOD. This lack of trust exacerbated the financial arrangements; to add to the confusion, the OR was ‘upped’ on several occasions. Thus, the MoS/MoA, who in many ways were the pro- genitors of the project forfeited the trust of all, primarily because of the inaccuracy of their forecasts and their inability to oversee and organise the management of the project as a whole. My previous submission stands.

A question: Who was the TSR 2 design

I too have a working knowledge of OR and how these translate into contractual speciations. The OR forms the Top Level Requirements, and thus drives the Aircraft platform Requirements document, engine requirements documents, etc etc. It’s not credible that the development contract (KD/2L/013/CB42(a)) would have ignored this and been for an aircraft with strategic requirements.

The suggestion of TSR2 being paired with is Blue Steel is absurd and Avro 730 was cancelled in 1956-7. The first contract against OR343 was placed in June 59 and the development aircraft contract was placed in October 1960. The September 1960 brochure “A study of the TSR2 in the over load condition to fulfil other roles” had no impact on either the development or production aircraft.

There’s no doubt that the forced union between VA and EE drove significant delays and costs into the project;- eg the Bomb bay crossed the frontier boundary between the two companies, the actuators at both ends were functionally the same but were designed/purchase independently from two different suppliers.

TSR2 was predominantly an aluminium alloy airframe. The aluminium alloy used in the development aircraft was X2020, but this was to replaced by a more conventional aluminium alloy in the production aircraft. A 146 C skin temperature is not compatible with an aluminium airframe;- what is the source? (It’s odd that this appears to be a simple pro rata of Concorde cruise speed to TSR2 mach limiting speed;- OR343 had a required cruise of Mach 1.7 at 40kft for 100nm <approx 5 mins>;- not even a thermal equilibrium supercriuse like Concorde).

It’s not the call of the airframer as to the engine choice. Why would the brand new Medway be cheaper than the almost there Olympus? Immediately after TSR2 cancellation RR made a real mess of putting a well understood Spey in the F4;- Mac Dac chief test pilot said “with an engine as bad as that who needs an enemy” and it entered service with a 42k ft service ceiling restriction.

Your suggestion that moving the goalposts seems not to be based on evidence from the TSR2 documents but on the bases of observations in other industries. If the OR was “upped” what were these “ups”? (Do you have copies of the OR’s? Issues and amendments?) The actual written words in the OR issues and amendments doesn’t reflect an significant changes, and certainly not the “increase range, weight, bomb bay strengths, etc” of your original claim.

Yes the committee spawning got out of control and adversely contributed to cost and time overruns, but again there was a lot more to the projects demise.

The TSR2 airframe design authority was BAC Weighbridge.
 
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