USAF/USN 6th Gen Fighters - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA, ASFS News & Analysis [2008- 2025]

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bring_it_on said:
I think the solution would still be to double down on full kit installs on Block 2 SH's to get the additional 4,000 hours (15 years) and upgrades. With a mix of Block 1, 2's and Block 3 SH's, the former mix of block 1 and some block 2's would be what the F/A-XX begins replacing in the 2030s. I wouldn't be surprised if the F/A-XX production program is half or slightly more than half of the overall SH effort due to cost and other advancements in technologies leading to more unmanned component in the air wing. My overall point is that the Navy has options of the table..from adding more aircraft to the SLM and funding that effort better to increasing F-35C buys. Both of these can be used to hedge against F/A-XX delays.

We will know more about F/A-XX timelines if the Navy moves forward on the program later this year. But if they begin buying aircraft towards the end of the decade, and hope to have it operational early-mid next decade, then we can realistically expect about 180-200 in hand or on order by 2040..or about 1/3 of the SH fleet currently operational. Another 250 to 300 or so SH's would have gone through the 10,000 hour SLM process by then.
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Agreed. Though I still think we're going to see closer to 300x FAXX in the fleet, just because the Navy is hedging against UCAVs.
 
Scott Kenny said:
Agreed. Though I still think we're going to see closer to 300x FAXX in the fleet, just because the Navy is hedging against UCAVs.
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Also while the USN may want more UCAVs, it seems unlikely they will be large strike capacity machines, at least initially. I suspect they will be counter air and EW platforms mostly, just because those missions do not require much payload. If you want a high payload UAV, you are probably going to pay manned fighter like prices. That is not an attritable asset.
 
Josh_TN said:
Also while the USN may want more UCAVs, it seems unlikely they will be large strike capacity machines, at least initially. I suspect they will be counter air and EW platforms mostly, just because those missions do not require much payload. If you want a high payload UAV, you are probably going to pay manned fighter like prices. That is not an attritable asset.
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Very true.

And I suspect that the FAXX size is really close to the point where there's no real performance gain for going unmanned. We know that the B21 is definitely above that size.
 
F/A-XX is going to be supersonic. When you have a payload and size limit due to Navy's requirements the choice of manned becomes clear. A strike-oriented UCAV for the air wing would probably be multi-mission, subsonic and longer ranged than F/A-XX. It naturally would not be a CCA (which targets low cost / somewhat attritable requirements).
 
F/A-XX will be a manned, supersonic, next-gen follow-on fighter to the F/A-18 E/F and will fill the role for combat air patrol/air superiority and should fill the gap left after F-14 retirement. With that said, the USN still needs a purposed built medium attack/strike platform, whether manned, unmanned or a combination of both. The former A-6 and A-7 platforms were very good attack jets as examples.
 
Desertfox said:
Probably closer to 500 as the USAF is forced to buy them when NGAD goes under.
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That would be re-birth of a modern F-4 Phantom for the USAF, the USAF did not and does not like USN aircraft but the F-4 and A-7 did the USAF right.
 
Went to Boeing St Louis last week, got to tour the F-15EX line and the EMD MQ-25s. Boeing is still building their huge, new production building and composites center which is and maybe was for NGAD. But as we know, Kendall put the temporary brakes on NGAD. I've been doing aerospace for a very long time and with around 2 years to go (maybe), I still have some shelf life, hard to predict in these times how program awards are going to go. I think Boeing was initially selected for USAF NGAD but with Boeing's current woes, I can see where Kendall hit the pause button. NG may win F/A-XX and I cannot see LM winning USAF NGAD since they have F-22 and there will be a lot more F-35s built. Boeing may still get selected NGAD in order to keep three primes in the game and for years, NG used to be the underdog.
 
I would not exclude the possibility if NGAD were cancelled, but it still seems like a low probability. But FA-XX would probably have shorter runway requirements and still have a longer range than any other USAF fighter. If there is a large strike capacity, there presumably is a large AAM capability as well. And the USN would eat the dev costs. It probably would not be the worst plan B.
 
Boeing Military has done much better than Boeing Commercial, I still think Boeing is in the lead for NGAD and they also have T-7A in their pocket.

I would have expected NG (YF-23) to be lead on NGAD and Boeing (F/A-18E/F) to be lead on FA-XX, but its interesting they are not.
 
Hydroman said:
Went to Boeing St Louis last week, got to tour the F-15EX line and the EMD MQ-25s. Boeing is still building their huge, new production building and composites center which is and maybe was for NGAD. But as we know, Kendall put the temporary brakes on NGAD. I've been doing aerospace for a very long time and with around 2 years to go (maybe), I still have some shelf life, hard to predict in these times how program awards are going to go. I think Boeing was initially selected for USAF NGAD but with Boeing's current woes, I can see where Kendall hit the pause button. NG may win F/A-XX and I cannot see LM winning USAF NGAD since they have F-22 and there will be a lot more F-35s built. Boeing may still get selected NGAD in order to keep three primes in the game and for years, NG used to be the underdog.
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Boeing is very likely to get the Navy contract and they have known that for a while.
 
Hydroman said:
…. I think Boeing was initially selected for USAF NGAD but with Boeing's current woes, I can see where Kendall hit the pause button. ….
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Really? This is based on what statements or announcements?
 
quellish said:
Boeing is very likely to get the Navy contract and they have known that for a while.
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I'm at the point quellish that things could go in any direction regarding US defense procurement but you could be right about Boeing, lots of new construction in St Louis.
 
I am in the same boat Hydroman (excuse the pun). Boeing could have easily won the F/A-XX contract and obviously have since the new buildings going up in St Louis, how would you explain that. It is only a matter of time before news filters out on who has won the contract.
 
In terms of maintaining 3 separate big players in aerospace, grumman should be getting more contracts.
It has the b21, sure. And e-2. But what else?
Boeing has the stingray, t-7, kc46, any future tanker, p-8. Anything else?

Oh, just remembered, the sentinel is NG. Boeing was competing for that but ultimately withdrew. Sentinel is huge compared to most other programs.

If Boeing somehow got the sentinel contract I'd say NG chances for navy's fa-xx would be much better.
 
NG withdrew from the NGAD competition about a year ago, maybe a bit less. If the DOD wants three primes capable of designing and building fast jets, then Boeing will get NGAD and NG will get F/A-XX. Lockheed Martin already has F-35.

If NG re-enters the NGAD competition we could get the inverse.

Lockheed is only competing for NGAD at the moment.

It's also possible that Lockheed gets NGAD and Boeing gets F/A-XX. Surely Boeing will get something. This would leave NG with only B-21.
 
www.eurasiantimes.com

6th-Gen Aircraft: U.S. Explores Joining Euro-Japanese GCAP Fighter Program As Its NGAD Is Heading Nowhere

A truly global sixth-generation fighter jet can be in the offing. As financial constraints throw a spanner in the US Air Force and the US Navy’s plan to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet, the US is exploring the option of joining the European-Japanese consortium. The US Air Force and the...
www.eurasiantimes.com www.eurasiantimes.com

U.S. Explores Joining Euro-Japanese GCAP Fighter Program As Its NGAD Is Heading Nowhere​

Possible in current budget environment?
 
ntexastom said:
www.eurasiantimes.com

6th-Gen Aircraft: U.S. Explores Joining Euro-Japanese GCAP Fighter Program As Its NGAD Is Heading Nowhere

A truly global sixth-generation fighter jet can be in the offing. As financial constraints throw a spanner in the US Air Force and the US Navy’s plan to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet, the US is exploring the option of joining the European-Japanese consortium. The US Air Force and the...
www.eurasiantimes.com www.eurasiantimes.com

U.S. Explores Joining Euro-Japanese GCAP Fighter Program As Its NGAD Is Heading Nowhere​



Possible in current budget environment?
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No, plus I cannot imagine any of those countries want the U.S. involved at this point.
 
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzXQqakQFjE

ntexastom said:
www.eurasiantimes.com

6th-Gen Aircraft: U.S. Explores Joining Euro-Japanese GCAP Fighter Program As Its NGAD Is Heading Nowhere

A truly global sixth-generation fighter jet can be in the offing. As financial constraints throw a spanner in the US Air Force and the US Navy’s plan to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet, the US is exploring the option of joining the European-Japanese consortium. The US Air Force and the...
www.eurasiantimes.com www.eurasiantimes.com

U.S. Explores Joining Euro-Japanese GCAP Fighter Program As Its NGAD Is Heading Nowhere​

Possible in current budget environment?
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Mutually-assured kill switch as standard.
 
Is it absurd to say that NG leaving NGAD means F/A-XX for the win and Lockheed leaving F/A-XX means it has NGAD?
 
totoro said:
In terms of maintaining 3 separate big players in aerospace, grumman should be getting more contracts.
It has the b21, sure. And e-2. But what else?
Boeing has the stingray, t-7, kc46, any future tanker, p-8. Anything else?

Oh, just remembered, the sentinel is NG. Boeing was competing for that but ultimately withdrew. Sentinel is huge compared to most other programs.

If Boeing somehow got the sentinel contract I'd say NG chances for navy's fa-xx would be much better.
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Northrop is a big player in the design and production of f-35. that giant cash cow gonna keep giving them for a while.
Also RQ-180
 
Alot of that expansion in St Louis began in 2023 and includes other adjacent activities like coatings and advanced testing capabilities (not to mention standing up an advanced composites plant in Mesa that was scheduled for full operation in the Fall of 22). In June 2024 Boeing announced the 1.1mm sqft Advanced Combat Aircraft manufacturing center and obviously that was the month DAF started making anxious noises on NGAD, so the timing always struck me as notable, which for whatever reason at the time nudged me toward thinking that Boeing thought they were getting awarded NGAD. Of course on the other hand, the timing also fits with the coming F/A-XX decision and the collection of Phantom Works and Boeing advanced manufacturing assets could be invaluable for Incr 2 CCAs or a strike-oriented successor to Stingray.
 
Boeing clearly thinks it is winning one of these contracts. I had heard at least one rumor that USAF was impressed with their NGAD submission. And I would think NG the horse to bet on for FAXX, given their B-21 success.

But Quellish stated he thought Boeing had FAXX, and while there is a bit of tension between us, I would not bet against his predictions.
 
Josh_TN said:
Boeing clearly thinks it is winning one of these contracts. I had heard at least one rumor that USAF was impressed with their NGAD submission. And I would think NG the horse to bet on for FAXX, given their B-21 success.

But Quellish stated he thought Boeing had FAXX, and while there is a bit of tension between us, I would not bet against his predictions.
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Boeing is a dumpster fire ATM. 737 Max et. al. makes me personally squirm at the thought of giving them F/A-XX, and I have no skin in the game. That being said, Boeing will get F/A-XX. :)
 
Josh_TN said:
Boeing clearly thinks it is winning one of these contracts. I had heard at least one rumor that USAF was impressed with their NGAD submission. And I would think NG the horse to bet on for FAXX, given their B-21 success.

But Quellish stated he thought Boeing had FAXX, and while there is a bit of tension between us, I would not bet against his predictions.
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I know I've shared these images alot, but there's no speculation that this patent is from boeing, and it is for a high lift device for landing. Easter egg: The tail hook is down!
 

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Desertfox said:
Probably closer to 500 as the USAF is forced to buy them when NGAD goes under.
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That would honestly be a nightmare scenario for USAF. They hate buying Navy planes!



Hydroman said:
Went to Boeing St Louis last week, got to tour the F-15EX line and the EMD MQ-25s. Boeing is still building their huge, new production building and composites center which is and maybe was for NGAD. But as we know, Kendall put the temporary brakes on NGAD. I've been doing aerospace for a very long time and with around 2 years to go (maybe), I still have some shelf life, hard to predict in these times how program awards are going to go. I think Boeing was initially selected for USAF NGAD but with Boeing's current woes, I can see where Kendall hit the pause button. NG may win F/A-XX and I cannot see LM winning USAF NGAD since they have F-22 and there will be a lot more F-35s built. Boeing may still get selected NGAD in order to keep three primes in the game and for years, NG used to be the underdog.
Click to expand...
I still see Boeing winning NGAD to keep 3 primes, and NG getting FAXX.

I'd laugh my ass off if the new Boeing plants end up making parts for LM and NG...


ntexastom said:
www.eurasiantimes.com

6th-Gen Aircraft: U.S. Explores Joining Euro-Japanese GCAP Fighter Program As Its NGAD Is Heading Nowhere

A truly global sixth-generation fighter jet can be in the offing. As financial constraints throw a spanner in the US Air Force and the US Navy’s plan to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet, the US is exploring the option of joining the European-Japanese consortium. The US Air Force and the...
www.eurasiantimes.com www.eurasiantimes.com

U.S. Explores Joining Euro-Japanese GCAP Fighter Program As Its NGAD Is Heading Nowhere​

Possible in current budget environment?
Click to expand...
No, mostly because adding the US would add enormous delays to the program that GCAP cannot afford.


quellish said:
Boeing is very likely to get the Navy contract and they have known that for a while.
Click to expand...
How so?
 
Scott Kenny said:
That would honestly be a nightmare scenario for USAF. They hate buying Navy planes!




I still see Boeing winning NGAD to keep 3 primes, and NG getting FAXX.

I'd laugh my ass off if the new Boeing plants end up making parts for LM and NG...



No, mostly because adding the US would add enormous delays to the program that GCAP cannot afford.



How so?
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The US would have to give up ITAR, that's why Japan did not want to team with the US. Europe does not have similar ITAR restrictions.
 
Boy everybody, these discussions are like a good chess match to see where all this goes or like the game Clue: Col. Boeing killed the competition and did it in the parlor with a rubber chicken then cried fowl!
 
As what was stated by totoro, Boeing does have KC-46 (needs help but USAF already pregnant), T-7 (started good, now issues, Saab not happy), F-15EX (going well, Boeing don't screw it up), P-8 (going well). F-18 E/F, last four birds this year. NG and LM more than likely have new classified programs of various types which is logical and has been that way for a long time. I'm sure Phantom Works is active in the B-World but not to the level of NG and LM. NG has B-21 but there is more, just don't about them.
 
Hydroman said:
As what was stated by totoro, Boeing does have KC-46 (needs help but USAF already pregnant), T-7 (started good, now issues, Saab not happy), F-15EX (going well, Boeing don't screw it up), P-8 (going well). F-18 E/F, last four birds this year.
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Boeing did already screw up with the F-15, the SA variant that the EX is built upon was over two years late to the Saudis in the middle teens.
 
Hydroman said:
As what was stated by totoro, Boeing does have KC-46 (needs help but USAF already pregnant), T-7 (started good, now issues, Saab not happy), F-15EX (going well, Boeing don't screw it up), P-8 (going well). F-18 E/F, last four birds this year. NG and LM more than likely have new classified programs of various types which is logical and has been that way for a long time. I'm sure Phantom Works is active in the B-World but not to the level of NG and LM. NG has B-21 but there is more, just don't about them.
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You have an idea of what NG an LM classified assets could be ? new capacity ?
 

“Game-Changer” – Trump Unleashes the Ultimate F-35 Successor for the US Air Force

IN A NUTSHELL ✈️ The U.S. is considering the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program as a successor to the F-35, with budget and strategic needs under scrutiny. The NGAD family includes the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), an unmanned semi-autonomous aircraft designed as a ‘loyal...
www.sustainability-times.com www.sustainability-times.com
It is realy time to take the decision. When this story will end ? Time to President Trump to go on the decision.
 
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