USAF/USN 6th Gen Fighters - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA, ASFS News & Analysis [2008- 2025]

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Minimally, at least some training flights do not need to happen for simple quals or basic maneuvering. You would only need CCAs actually flying for large scale realistic exercises like the various Flags, and you could probably rotate the force in and out of these to limit flight hours on individual airframes to limit maintenance. Also the commercial engines that Incr1 uses probably have far lower requirements; those likely will outlast the airframes.
 
Josh_TN said:
Minimally, at least some training flights do not need to happen for simple quals or basic maneuvering. You would only need CCAs actually flying for large scale realistic exercises like the various Flags, and you could probably rotate the force in and out of these to limit flight hours on individual airframes to limit maintenance. Also the commercial engines that Incr1 uses probably have far lower requirements; those likely will outlast the airframes.
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Pretty simple to address that. Build an ability to support (logistically and for training etc) about 1000 CCA's. Build another 1000 more and store. You can think the former having something like $400K - $600K CPTPY with the latter a fraction (say <$100K CPTPY of storage and sustainment cost). But for something like this to happen, Congress and OSD would need to overcome the optics of moving something costing $10-15 Million from the factory to a storage warehouse...sort of like what we do with weapons - though in this case they are meant to boost manned fighter shortfalls.
 
Sundog said:
Not to mention, JIC anyone hasn't noticed, a lot of training is going virtual. Even the T-7 will be able to to perform BFM against virtual generated opponents or even a plane that isn't in the sky, but shows up on the systems and is flown by a pilot in a simulator. They can do the same with CCAs.
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Exactly what I said!
 
Forest Green said:
https://www.twz.com/air/20-billion-...-development-of-usafs-next-generation-fighter
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A smaller NGAD should be a non starter. So what's the role? Is the only reason to have a manned NGAD platform is to have a man in the loop in an air battle? You don't really need them as a network node. Sensors and weapons are distributed to CCAs, which will increase the cost of CCAs. What happens when the CCAs expend all their weapons? You bug out? Well, sometimes you can't.

The strategy of the high-low mix is what the USAF employed during the height of the Cold War. There is no substitute for the capabilities of and exquisite fighter like the F-15 or F-14. When it is combined with less expensive assets it makes the force more effective.

Josh_TN said:
Regarding what sensors would/should be carried by CCAs, I think the need for multiple signals for range data in passive collection means that every platform has to be carrying. Defensive equipment might be less consequential, but at the same time these will be expensive enough that you do not want them shot down with trash fire at max AAM range because they blindly blunder into a missile in a straight line. CM ejectors seem like a minimum, and if there is any kind of ranging or collision avoidance radar, it seems to me you would want that to have EW modes as well.
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Mitchell's notional CCA, costing $15-40 million has an AESA radar and IRST. The cost may not be realistic. Whatever the case, how far does the CCA need to operate from the manned fighter to impart an adequate level of survivability to it? F-35s operate up to 50 miles away from each other, but they have onboard sensors. 5th Gen enemy aircraft complicates the matter. Would passive sensors like IRST be adequate?

Josh_TN said:
Minimally, at least some training flights do not need to happen for simple quals or basic maneuvering. You would only need CCAs actually flying for large scale realistic exercises like the various Flags, and you could probably rotate the force in and out of these to limit flight hours on individual airframes to limit maintenance. Also the commercial engines that Incr1 uses probably have far lower requirements; those likely will outlast the airframes.
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Great idea, but what do the support people do without any aircraft to maintain or launch in peacetime? Sure, they could pull CCAs out and check their health, but whatever they do in peacetime will not come close to wartime. You will not have enough work for them. What about the pilots?
 
B2Blain said:
Mitchell's notional CCA, costing $15-40 million has an AESA radar and IRST. The cost may not be realistic. Whatever the case, how far does the CCA need to operate from the manned fighter to impart an adequate level of survivability to it? F-35s operate up to 50 miles away from each other, but they have onboard sensors. 5th Gen enemy aircraft complicates the matter. Would passive sensors like IRST be adequate?
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I think a radar capable of tracking 5th gen fighters is a non starter in this class of aircraft. It might have a collision avoidance/ECM system, but long range active detection of a J-20 seems iffy even for F-35. However forcing J-20s to either radiate or close to IRST range seems like a workable option, especially if there is a less expensive layer of passive sensor UAVs working with CCA. Turn on your radar? They will snigff you out. Don’t turn on your radar? You’re the one with two huge turbofans and a much larger surface area in the IR spectrum. Choose your pain.
 
So nothing til 2050? Insanity. We went from Kendall saying “we’ve moved so quickly with this digital design stuff will have the next generation ready in the quickest time ever” (to paraphrase) to “we really can’t build an F-22 successor so we will shoot for a better F-35 by 2050”.

Really?
 
bobbymike said:
So nothing til 2050? Insanity. We went from Kendall saying “we’ve moved so quickly with this digital design stuff will have the next generation ready in the quickest time ever” (to paraphrase) to “we really can’t build an F-22 successor so we will shoot for a better F-35 by 2050”.

Really?
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Something is not clear , is there something in work for long range strike family we don't know about ? it is like the priority is to protect the long range strike budget instead of 6th gen fighter, something is strange in this NGAD history, Chinese show 6th gen , all must be going in this direction and Kendall speak about financing other priority, B-21 is on track and on budget , so what else is so important ?
 
bring_it_on said:
Amazing insight from Hunter..repeating (almost verbatim) essentially what uniformed officials have been saying for the last few years.

Hunter held little sway over NGAD as I believe it was in the SecAF's portfolio and out of his.
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There is a hurry for the new administration to take the decision too time is lost in questions and bla-bla, time to go full throttle on NGAD , China is making a sprint and it could be a big danger for the world.
 
WatcherZero said:
Kendall says the Air Force cant afford the $20bn it would take to develop an air-superiority F-22 successor and that their thinking now was to not develop NGAD and instead focus on developing an F-35 multi-role successor for service entry around 2050.

https://www.defensenews.com/air/202...35-successor-casts-2050-vision-for-air-force/
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To clarify, Kendall was speaking of where he sees the Air Force going by 2050, but that date isn’t tied with any milestone for the proposed F-35 successor from NGAD, which could enter service considerably earlier.

That said, rescoping the NGAD from the F-22 successor to a smaller F-35 successor will likely add years to the schedule, as companies will need to essentially design a new aircraft, even if it draws heavily from their current PCA bids. Not to mention that all the work in terms of air vehicle and propulsion integration with NGAP will have to be redone. We saw a similar slide in schedule when NGB was canceled and then re-scopes into the LRS-B.
 
dark sidius said:
There is a hurry for the new administration to take the decision too time is lost in questions and bla-bla, time to go full throttle on NGAD , China is making a sprint and it could be a big danger for the world.
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No bucks, no Buck Rogers! It wasn't like the previous administration (or the one before it) was aiming to spend 4-5% of GDP on defense. AF cannot overcome the bow wave it faces in the 2030s unless it gets a serious funding increase which likely won't happen absent a huge DOD spending boost beyond the 1-2% real growth that we are probably looking at under the incoming administration. Would love to be proven wrong but there are unlikely to be wholesale changes within DOD spending profiles (spending across services) in the new admin and we are also unlikely to see huge savings from DOGE (and whatever we do see are unlikely to go to DOD). So back to square one..how will the AF budget grow over the next ten years to support current and expected acquisition priorities?

icyplanetnhc (Steve) said:
That said, rescoping the NGAD from the F-22 successor to a smaller F-35 successor will likely add years to the schedule, as companies will need to essentially design a new aircraft, even if it draws heavily from their current PCA bids.
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What's to stop from that being the case and then Kendall coming back to the building and wanting to rescope that F-35 follow on to a C-17 follow on?
 
There's a possibility that the B-21 ends up as the manned CCA controller for air dominance not because it is best suited for that role, but because we don't end up starting production on anything else.
 
bring_it_on said:
No bucks, no Buck Rogers! It wasn't like the previous administration (or the one before it) was aiming to spend 4-5% of GDP on defense. AF cannot overcome the bow wave it faces in the 2030s unless it gets a serious funding increase which likely won't happen absent a huge DOD spending boost beyond the 1-2% real growth that we are probably looking at under the incoming administration. Would love to be proven wrong but there are unlikely to be wholesale changes within DOD spending profiles (spending across services) in the new admin and we are also unlikely to see huge savings from DOGE (and whatever we do see are unlikely to go to DOD). So back to square one..how will the AF budget grow over the next ten years to support current and expected acquisition priorities?



What's to stop from that being the case and then Kendall coming back to the building and wanting to rescope that F-35 follow on to a C-17 follow on?
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Do you realy think Mr Trump and Mr Musk will let China winning the technological race ? They have no choice this time it is not a joke , China is soon to becoming the first Air Force and surely Space Force in the world , and when it will arrive, we will surely live in a more dangerous world than today.
 
dark sidius said:
Do you realy think Mr Trump and Mr Musk will let China winning the technological race ? They have no choice this time it is not a joke , China is soon to becoming the first Air Force and surely Space Force in the world , and when it will arrive, we will surely live in a more dangerous world than today.
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I think their understanding of strategic matters is quite limited and thier control of the House of Representatives fleeting, even assuming they cared. We will see how NGAD is prioritized shortly; personally I suspect a lot of people will be disappointed.
 
joshjosh said:
There's a possibility that the B-21 ends up as the manned CCA controller for air dominance not because it is best suited for that role, but because we don't end up starting production on anything else.
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Good luck. It costs $600-700 Million a pop and we are planning to produce seven a year.
 
joshjosh said:
There's a possibility that the B-21 ends up as the manned CCA controller for air dominance not because it is best suited for that role, but because we don't end up starting production on anything else.
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Broadly speaking, I don't think there will be combat aircraft "controllers". Just cogs in machine.
 
bring_it_on said:
Good luck. It costs $600-700 Million a pop and we are planning to produce seven a year.
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Agree and the production couldn't scale quickly enough to get to the point it would be valuable. Seems like the solution is more F-35 and CCA integration. Enough CCA can overcome a perceived 6th gen gap between platforms and allow the F-35 to penetrate with sufficient munitions and gas. Would require NGAS but an unmanned NGAS seems more cost effective with wider application than a manned NGAD at this point.
 
_Del_ said:
Broadly speaking, I don't think there will be combat aircraft "controllers". Just cogs in machine.
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You still have to account for EW effects on the battlespace and space superiority, which some of the C2 solutions will rely on, is not certain so some form of LOS comms between platforms has to be the fall back.
 
Ozair said:
Seems like the solution is more F-35 and CCA integration.
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Problem with that is that the AF has consistently cut the number of F-35A's it plans on acquiring each year. The plan to buy more is always magically right outside the FYDP. The AF's buy rate is inconsistent with its plan to field 1,700 odd F-35A's. Its more consistent with them buying somewhere in the 800-1200 levels.
 
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bring_it_on said:
Problem with that is that the AF has consistently cut the number of F-35A's it plans on acquiring each year. The plan to buy more is always magically right outside the FYDP.
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And if they bought more before the software is ready making them more expensive to update, we'd bitch about that, too.

That's not a shot at you or anyone. There are just choices being made between bad options. I don't think anyone is happy about the F-35 situation.
 
_Del_ said:
And if they bought more before the software is ready making them more expensive to update, we'd bitch about that, too.
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The point is that there is no chance in hell (short of dramatic increases in naitonal security spending or prioritization) that we buy the F-35's we planned to buy originally. a 30-40% cut to that number is likely to be the case. So if the option is that we'll just have more F-35A's because there's no NGAD then the reality is that the F-35's fleet won't even reach its own stated planned inventory level let alone grow to meet inventory levels of future programs that we chose not pursue..Must also remember that the administration also killed perhaps the most valuable F-35 modernization effort as far as its relevance in the Pacific was concerned.
 
Ozair said:
Seems like the solution is more F-35 and CCA integration.
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At this time there is no way for an F-35 to control / manage a CCA, and there is no clear plan to get there. There are also conflicting visions of what the end result will be.

F-35s that can control CCAs have not been built yet, and there is currently no plan for when that will be or how.
 
bring_it_on said:
Problem with that is that the AF has consistently cut the number of F-35A's it plans on acquiring each year. The plan to buy more is always magically right outside the FYDP. The AF's buy rate is inconsistent with its plan to field 1,700 odd F-35A's. Its more consistent with them buying somewhere in the 800-1200 levels.
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Original SARs, for example 2013, has the build rate at 80 frame a year all the way through to the late 2030s. While I agree consistent procurement has been a rock show to date there are, as you know, reasons why.

Were the USAF to commit to an F-35/CCA plan then could easily see the F-35 getting back to the 80 a year number or even approaching 100 with some additional investment. Given later SARs already extended out the build to 2043 and also the potential absence of a viable replacement means it becomes almost the only option.

Then NGAD can wholly invest in CCAs and push that as fast and as far as it can go.
 
bring_it_on said:
Must also remember that the administration also killed perhaps the most valuable F-35 modernization effort as far as its relevance in the Pacific was concerned.
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Could see that coming back if manned NGAD doesn't go forward. Would be all post 2030 deliveries at this point but certainly feasible.
 
bring_it_on said:
The point is that there is no chance in hell (short of dramatic increases in naitonal security spending or prioritization) that we buy the F-35's we planned to buy originally. a 30-40% cut to that number is likely to be the case. So if the option is that we'll just have more F-35A's because there's no NGAD then the reality is that the F-35's fleet won't even reach its own stated planned inventory level let alone grow to meet inventory levels of future programs that we chose not pursue..Must also remember that the administration also killed perhaps the most valuable F-35 modernization effort as far as its relevance in the Pacific was concerned.
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I think we'll ultimately end up with about the same amount.

A lot will depend on what shape the manned NGAD platforms look like and how well they keep cost down. If they do a great job keeping cost down, then the A-buy likely gets smaller, but it's going to be in production for allied countries for a long time, and an existing platform frequently finds new production life over time.

Original F-16 buy was 650. Many more of later sub-models (C and later blocks) were eventually produced for the Air Force because it was in production and added affordable "mass" as the latest buzzword trend would call it.

Would not surprise me to see an even larger buy of later blocks of F-35, and the older (still functional but not as fancy blocks) sold or leased to allied nations on the cheap. We might eventually see a trimmed down F-35 model that further reduces costs (no, EOTS, maybe. Maybe no radar, if you wanted to get really radical).

The Marines love theirs. The Navy would probably love to cancel it and buy a new platform, but their track record is so bad, it would be foolish. Congress will likely force them to buy at least the number of C-models originally planned unless the follow-up program starts producing hardware that works and promises to be affordable quickly.

A lot will depend on how fast they get the software sorted and what direction they decide to go on NGAD platforms (cost, complexity, and perhaps even more importantly readiness).
 
Ozair said:
Were the USAF to commit to an F-35/CCA plan then could easily see the F-35 getting back to the 80 a year number or even approaching 100 with some additional investment. Given later SARs already extended out the build to 2043 and also the potential absence of a viable replacement means it becomes almost the only option.
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It isn't the only option. The other option is to simply not buy the F-35's originally planned. The AF is clearly headed towards such a reality (unless it reverses course).

Ozair said:
Could see that coming back if manned NGAD doesn't go forward. Would be all post 2030 deliveries at this point but certainly feasible.
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Anything is possible. Billions diverted to F-35 modernizaiton over what is currently programmed would/could have consequences to the F35 investments in procurement. That could shift acquisition ramps further to the right just like block 4 and its constant delays has done.
 
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bring_it_on said:
It isn't the only option. The other option is to simply not buy the F-35's originally planned. The AF is clearly headed towards such a reality (unless it reverses course).
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To prevent an aging fighter fleet being completely geriatric I see no other option. F-15EX isn't a long term option and the USAF has already curtailed that for obvious reasons, what other platform is either in production or possible to be in production for the USAF within a ten year timeframe?
bring_it_on said:
Anything is possible. Billions diverted to F-35 modernizaiton over what is currently programmed would/could have consequences to the F35 investments in procurement. That could shift acquisition ramps further to the right just like block 4 and its constant delays has done.
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Yes good and bad consequences with every choice now, the USAF has been painted into a corner...
 
Ozair said:
To prevent an aging fighter fleet being completely geriatric I see no other option
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The AF has been consistently getting older. Its not a new thing. It has not done [been able to do] anything about it. If the current trends (over the last 10-15 years) are an indication it is unlikely to reverse that decline in any meaningful way.
Ozair said:
what other platform is either in production or possible to be in production for the USAF within a ten year timeframe?
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There is not any. The AF could simply walk away and decide to be a significantly smaller and/or different force because it decides that its future budget outlook is inconsistent with the sort of modernization or force structure it had anticipated.
 
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bring_it_on said:
The AF has been consistently getting older. Its not a new thing. It has not done [been able to do] anything about it. If the current trends (over the last 10-15 years) are an indication it is unlikely to reverse that decline in any meaningful way.
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That is my point. F-35/CAA combo is the means to reverse that is a meaningful way that also doesn't break the budget.
bring_it_on said:
There is not any. The AF could simply walk away and decide to be a significantly smaller and/or different force because it decides that its future budget outlook is inconsistent with the sort of modernization or force structure it had anticipated.
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An interesting hypothetical but not one I expect has much basis in reality. I suppose a Trump administration could go full iso and make those decisions but that isn't apparent given the China hawks he has appointed, the rhetoric that is already spewing forth and the current disposition of Congress which ultimately is the body funding or not that type of change.
 
Ozair said:
That is my point. F-35/CAA combo is the means to reverse that is a meaningful way that also doesn't break the budget.
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Sure, but my point was that the F-35 numbers are pretty baked in at this point and likely to be significantly lower than originally planned.. So its really a CCA future that you are painting..F-35/F-15 will be available in smaller than planned numbers..NGAD - from which the CCA was born could even not happen.
Ozair said:
An interesting hypothetical but not one I expect has much basis in reality.
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The outcome is actually the one based on looking at what the AF has done in the last decade plus. That is, shed force structure, asked to shed even more force structure, extend older aircraft, and defer modernization.

I for one don't think that this future will pan out though. I expect NGAD to be funded to 'preserve options' for the late 2020s / 2030s timeframe. That obviously does not solve the budget issues and bow wave of the 2030s but I think folks will be smart with this. But if one were to mererly look at what the AF has done, across administrations, one would come to the conclusion that it is destined to shrink just like it has since the 90s.
 
The additional “mass” may be besides the point if the F-35 is incapable of adequately meeting the operational requirements for the NGAD. A major reason cited for the Air Force’s reluctance in ramping up procurement numbers is that the service doesn’t consider the current Block 3F aircraft capable enough in their INDOPACOM war games.

I don’t think any service officials have ever voiced the F-35 even with CCAs as some kind of substitute for NGAD.
 
icyplanetnhc (Steve) said:
The additional “mass” may be besides the point if the F-35 is incapable of adequately meeting the operational requirements for the NGAD. A major reason cited for the Air Force’s reluctance in ramping up procurement numbers is that the service doesn’t consider the current Block 3F aircraft capable enough in their INDOPACOM war games.
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USAF has been clear for a number of years now they are waiting for Blk 4.

icyplanetnhc (Steve) said:
I don’t think any service officials have ever voiced the F-35 even with CCAs as some kind of substitute for NGAD.
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Never a substitute but it has always been part of the plan that CCAs and F-35s would work together.

In March 2023, the USAF Secretary revealed the plan to pair at least 1,000 uncrewed CCAs with advanced manned fighters in the near future, in his keynote speech titled “One Team, One Fight” at the 2023 Air Force Association Warfare Symposium held in Colorado.

The plan is tentatively based on the assumption of teaming two CCAs with each of the 200 NGAD platforms and 300 F-35s.
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https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/collaborative-combat-aircraft-cca-usa/?cf-view
I'm not sure what else those 300 F-35s with CCA would be doing in a neer-peer conflict in the INDOPACOM region other that working with NGAD on all target sets. Take a step back then and look at potentially more capable CCA with F-35. It becomes an argument about where to spend the money for most value, on an attritable airframe you can re-configure rapidly with much lower life cycle costs compared to a high cost exquisite platform that will be difficult to change and adapt to circumstances. USAF has to move on CCAs, it has little choice, but it can decide to wait on NGAD and potentially mitigate the capability delta.
 
bring_it_on said:
Pretty simple to address that. Build an ability to support (logistically and for training etc) about 1000 CCA's. Build another 1000 more and store. You can think the former having something like $400K - $600K CPTPY with the latter a fraction (say <$100K CPTPY of storage and sustainment cost). But for something like this to happen, Congress and OSD would need to overcome the optics of moving something costing $10-15 Million from the factory to a storage warehouse...sort of like what we do with weapons - though in this case they are meant to boost manned fighter shortfalls.
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Tell Congress these are more like reusable cruise missiles than airplanes, they're designed to mostly be stored for "break glass in case of war" with a few being used up in training.



Josh_TN said:
I think a radar capable of tracking 5th gen fighters is a non starter in this class of aircraft. It might have a collision avoidance/ECM system, but long range active detection of a J-20 seems iffy even for F-35. However forcing J-20s to either radiate or close to IRST range seems like a workable option, especially if there is a less expensive layer of passive sensor UAVs working with CCA. Turn on your radar? They will snigff you out. Don’t turn on your radar? You’re the one with two huge turbofans and a much larger surface area in the IR spectrum. Choose your pain.
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Gonna be a whole lot of 4th and even 3rd gen fighters still flying for a long time. As well as non-stealthy weapons flying around.



Josh_TN said:
I think their understanding of strategic matters is quite limited and thier control of the House of Representatives fleeting, even assuming they cared. We will see how NGAD is prioritized shortly; personally I suspect a lot of people will be disappointed.
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Still got the House for 2 years.
 
bring_it_on said:
Sure, but my point was that the F-35 numbers are pretty baked in at this point and likely to be significantly lower than originally planned.. So its really a CCA future that you are painting..F-35/F-15 will be available in smaller than planned numbers..NGAD - from which the CCA was born could even not happen.
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I get what you are saying but I don't believe we are baked in yet on what the future numbers of F-35 are.

bring_it_on said:
The outcome is actually the one based on looking at what the AF has done in the last decade plus. That is, shed force structure, asked to shed even more force structure, extend older aircraft, and defer modernization.

I for one don't think that this future will pan out though. I expect NGAD to be funded to 'preserve options' for the late 2020s / 2030s timeframe. That obviously does not solve the budget issues and bow wave of the 2030s but I think folks will be smart with this. But if one were to mererly look at what the AF has done, across administrations, one would come to the conclusion that it is destined to shrink just like it has since the 90s.
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I don't think using the last 30 years is a good exemplar for the next 30.
 
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