USAF to Retire B-1, B-2 in Early 2030s as B-21 Comes On-Line

76 BUFFs, how about at least 100. 95 was low enough, jeepers. and low altitude infiltration (forward canards a etc)
The numbers have fallen greatly since the end of the Cold War. The SAC order of battle as of 1989:

B-52G 160 (PAA) bombers in 9 combat coded squadrons and 1 training squadron
B-52H 80 (PAA) Bombers in 5 combat coded squadrons
FB-111 60 (PAA) Bombers in 4 combat coded squadrons and 1 training squadron
B-1B 95 (PAA) Bombers in 5 combat coded squadrons and 1 training squadron

Total: 395 (PAA) Bombers in 23 combat coded squadrons and 3 training squadrons

Note in 89/90/91 the FB-111's became F-111G's and were given to TAC as the B-1B came online in 90/91
 
It appears there are 88 buffs currently, as well as talk of reproducing a full CAD/CAM for the B-1 so why not do the same for the B-52? Who knows where these programs go.
 

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Great from a study point of view. If they don't build them at 2x the planned rate than all they are really doing is adding a hypothetical inventory number that will have to be funded decades from now. Far easier to sanction that as opposed to a production rate increase. Assuming the USAF is preparing to spend $6-7 Billion a year on its current max buy rate, where is SASC going to find the money to double that?
 

Rattling an increasingly rusty saber, I fear.

It will be a sad day when the last B-1B retires to the Boneyard leaving the USAF without a supersonic bomber and only relying on the subsonic and old B-52H and the maintenance heavy B-2, to be replaced by the subsonic B-21.
 

Rattling an increasingly rusty saber, I fear.

It will be a sad day when the last B-1B retires to the Boneyard leaving the USAF without a supersonic bomber and only relying on the subsonic and old B-52H and the maintenance heavy B-2, to be replaced by the subsonic B-21.
Meanwhile Russia will have the supersonic Blackjack & Backfires.
 
... and stealth is 100 times more pertinent than supersonic flight since 1977 and Have Blue.
Besides, Tupolev bombers have RCS the size of Moscow.
 
... and stealth is 100 times more pertinent than supersonic flight since 1977 and Have Blue.
Besides, Tupolev bombers have RCS the size of Moscow.

What about the anti-stealth radars that Russia and China have in development right now? I certainly would not be in a stealth aircraft when these radars become operational.
 
... and stealth is 100 times more pertinent than supersonic flight since 1977 and Have Blue.
Besides, Tupolev bombers have RCS the size of Moscow.

What about the anti-stealth radars that Russia and China have in development right now? I certainly would not be in a stealth aircraft when these radars become operational.
As i understand it they have about half the normal range against stealth jets due to how they operate. If they work, which is still up in the air.

As is even if they do work, they be smash by JASSM, Harms, and AARGMs while being blinded by Malds anyways. Allowing stealth to happen by going with the thinking they cant see you if they dead. Leaving the fighters scrambling to find them.

And speaking of which...

What of the new Patriots systems and SHORAD? To say nothing of the Air Force?

The TU22 and TU190 can only do supersonic at attitudes and not on the deck. Which is um...

Gestures at US experience with that.

Isn't that handy.
 
... and stealth is 100 times more pertinent than supersonic flight since 1977 and Have Blue.
Besides, Tupolev bombers have RCS the size of Moscow.

What about the anti-stealth radars that Russia and China have in development right now? I certainly would not be in a stealth aircraft when these radars become operational.
As i understand it they have about half the normal range against stealth jets due to how they operate. If they work, which is still up in the air.

As is even if they do work, they be smash by JASSM, Harms, and AARGMs while being blinded by Malds anyways. Allowing stealth to happen by going with the thinking they cant see you if they dead. Leaving the fighters scrambling to find them.

And speaking of which...

What of the new Patriots systems and SHORAD? To say nothing of the Air Force?

The TU22 and TU190 can only do supersonic at attitudes and not on the deck. Which is um...

Gestures at US experience with that.

Isn't that handy.
It is if you're trying to give your 10,000lb missiles a range boost.
 
Supersonic performance may have some uses/ utility for a strategic bomber.
But the associated trade-offs and opportunity costs for that capacity are very substantial, particularly if trying to combine with low RCS/ general low oberservability/ “stealth” characteristics, especially if trying to incorporate high supersonic (Mach 2, Mach 3, plus) performance.
Generally speaking other capabilities (and the need to make the end product remotely affordable) have proven to be more important, and all (strategic bomber producing) major powers appear to have come to this determination (understood next generation Chinese and Russian bombers are variations on the stealthy subsonic flying wing theme).
The likes of the Backfire and Blackjack (like the B-1B) spend tiny proportions of their time at supersonic speed and the capability is largely irrelevant for anything apart from some extremely niche mission profiles against non-peer opponents.
Arguments like country X has largely irrelevant capacity Y so I want my country to have it too are not very convincing to me.
 
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Rattling an increasingly rusty saber, I fear.

It will be a sad day when the last B-1B retires to the Boneyard leaving the USAF without a supersonic bomber and only relying on the subsonic and old B-52H and the maintenance heavy B-2, to be replaced by the subsonic B-21.
Meanwhile Russia will have the supersonic Blackjack & Backfires.

It's a bit of a stretch to call the B-1B supersonic. Technically, at altitude, barely, yes.

It's also worth noting PAK DA is by all accounts sub sonic. Tu-160/22M3 are retained for the same reason the B-1 is: they are built and available.
 

Rattling an increasingly rusty saber, I fear.

It will be a sad day when the last B-1B retires to the Boneyard leaving the USAF without a supersonic bomber and only relying on the subsonic and old B-52H and the maintenance heavy B-2, to be replaced by the subsonic B-21.
Meanwhile Russia will have the supersonic Blackjack & Backfires.

It's a bit of a stretch to call the B-1B supersonic. Technically, at altitude, barely, yes.

It's also worth noting PAK DA is by all accounts sub sonic. Tu-160/22M3 are retained for the same reason the B-1 is: they are built and available.
They're building NEW Blackjacks and the Backfires will be around for a long time.
 

Rattling an increasingly rusty saber, I fear.

It will be a sad day when the last B-1B retires to the Boneyard leaving the USAF without a supersonic bomber and only relying on the subsonic and old B-52H and the maintenance heavy B-2, to be replaced by the subsonic B-21.
Meanwhile Russia will have the supersonic Blackjack & Backfires.

It's a bit of a stretch to call the B-1B supersonic. Technically, at altitude, barely, yes.

It's also worth noting PAK DA is by all accounts sub sonic. Tu-160/22M3 are retained for the same reason the B-1 is: they are built and available.
They're building NEW Blackjacks and the Backfires will be around for a long time.

I think they've built *a* new Blackjack, yes, as well as getting a partial and a test airframe into flying shape. I seem to remember a discussion on this or another board that indicated this is largely because the tooling and line was left largely intact, but I can't find any links to that.
 
Meanwhile Russia will have the supersonic Blackjack & Backfires.
That's what the Hypersonics are for (If they can get them to work) :p
Now imagine you had a supersonic platform, or just any platform, to launch them from. A Bacikfire-C can carry three 13,000lb class weapons externally. (Obviously not at supersonic speed.) The Blackjack could probably top that and carry them internally. A B-52 could carry two and a B-21 none. Both the B-21 and B-52 internal bays are too short for something that big.
 
At this point in time the Tu-160s are cruise missile platforms, for which supersonic capability is wasted.

As for the hypersonic weapons you speak off, sound what you want is a 747/C-17/C-5, since its a size issue not a speed issue.
 

Rattling an increasingly rusty saber, I fear.

It will be a sad day when the last B-1B retires to the Boneyard leaving the USAF without a supersonic bomber and only relying on the subsonic and old B-52H and the maintenance heavy B-2, to be replaced by the subsonic B-21.
Meanwhile Russia will have the supersonic Blackjack & Backfires.

It's a bit of a stretch to call the B-1B supersonic. Technically, at altitude, barely, yes.

It's also worth noting PAK DA is by all accounts sub sonic. Tu-160/22M3 are retained for the same reason the B-1 is: they are built and available.
They're building NEW Blackjacks and the Backfires will be around for a long time.

If we're really unlucky they might have a whole two dozen Blackjacks in the '50's when the USAF has 100+ each of B-21 and B-52?

The bomber gap exists, but only in the context of the United States absolutely mogging everyone else in the world for the foreseeable future. Getting rid of geriatric trash like the B-1 is a good idea considering it's worthless in the context of a strategic forces conversation. Actual dead weight. Maybe they can afford to buy enough engines to fly the wings off the B-52s if they jettison them earlier.

Meanwhile Russia will have the supersonic Blackjack & Backfires.
That's what the Hypersonics are for (If they can get them to work) :p
Now imagine you had a supersonic platform, or just any platform, to launch them from. A Bacikfire-C can carry three 13,000lb class weapons externally. (Obviously not at supersonic speed.) The Blackjack could probably top that and carry them internally. A B-52 could carry two and a B-21 none. Both the B-21 and B-52 internal bays are too short for something that big.

Blackjack is a worse cruise missile platform than the B-52 and it comprises the bulk of RuAF's strategic air forces. If you're concerned about Blackjack then I suggest you take a look at the fact that Russia is unlikely to have more than 20 of them in the future, given the industrial issues Russia faces.

A whole single digits of functional strategic bombers are really going to overwhelm NORAD I'm sure, but I'm not quaking in my boots.

Not sure where you got the idea that Blackjack, with its two 8 meter bomb bays, can somehow carry a pair of Kh-22s though. That's kinda loony and Tom Clancy-ish in a way, but that's beyond the conversation.

Zircon is external carriage only by Backfires for anti-carrier group attacks by regiments. It's unlikely Russia will ever have more than two or three total warshots, which translates to about 100 missiles, simply because they don't expect Backfire regiments to survive long enough to get off maybe one or two raids before being killed by naval defense fighters and BARCAPs. So there won't be enough Zircons to arm all Backfires, much less Blackjack lol.

Whatever, if anything, replaces Kh-22, will probably be very similar in size to it, and again a Backfire weapon. Probably to fill out the ammo bunkers for the remaining Backfire regiments.

Neither are significant threats to an Aegis equipped battlegroup with F/A-18E/F, much less one with AMDRs, F-35C and NGAD.
 
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I think bombers and missiles are definitely threats, but the numbers are generally fairly low compared to the way the Chinese crank out weapons. Backfire numbers are stuck at ~60+ and Blackjacks likely not over twenty before B-21 comes on line. B-52H is 76 platforms with a handful of attrition spares in storage (10?). I think B-1s are expected to remain at 45 until replaced one for one. I wouldn’t call them trash but their forte is high speed low level subsonic, not high altitude supersonic. Direct replace for Kh-22 is Kh-32, though I’d assume an air launched Zircon is in the works.
 
The measure expires in 2023. I suspect that B-1s get retired before they have complete one for one replacement, or else if Congress continues to be involved, they are retained as museum pieces largely incapable of operations.
 
The measure expires in 2023. I suspect that B-1s get retired before they have complete one for one replacement, or else if Congress continues to be involved, they are retained as museum pieces largely incapable of operations.
That's how most transitions work, but if it's a squadron up at Ellsworth going from 12 old airframes with a sub 50% MC rate to say 6-9 brand new airframes for IOC building to a final of XX PAA it's not the end of the world. The big question is what is that final PAA going to be for the combat coded Raider squadrons? A single digit would be bad, 12 would be good, 16 like the good old days would be great. Anyone seen anything written about that?
 
The measure expires in 2023. I suspect that B-1s get retired before they have complete one for one replacement, or else if Congress continues to be involved, they are retained as museum pieces largely incapable of operations.
That's how most transitions work, but if it's a squadron up at Ellsworth going from 12 old airframes with a sub 50% MC rate to say 6-9 brand new airframes for IOC building to a final of XX PAA it's not the end of the world. The big question is what is that final PAA going to be for the combat coded Raider squadrons? A single digit would be bad, 12 would be good, 16 like the good old days would be great. Anyone seen anything written about that?
My first thought was that the plan would be same as B-2. It seems there are nineteen among three squadrons so perhaps six per. I think that number is constrained by limited numbers and perhaps the amount of support B-2 requires.

On one hand it would make sense to start off with a one for one replacement in squadrons until the aircraft is better known. On the other hand, Ellsworth is planning for ~30 Environmental Protection Shelters and it currently supports two bomber squadrons. So maybe the number is 15. Fifteen makes sense as the original plan was for 100 - 6 squadrons and the other ten for training and testing.

Time will tell.
 

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My first thought was that the plan would be same as B-2. It seems there are nineteen among three squadrons so perhaps six per. I think that number is constrained by limited numbers and perhaps the amount of support B-2 requires.

On one hand it would make sense to start off with a one for one replacement in squadrons until the aircraft is better known. On the other hand, Ellsworth is planning for ~30 Environmental Protection Shelters and it currently supports two bomber squadrons. So maybe the number is 15. Fifteen makes sense as the original plan was for 100 - 6 squadrons and the other ten for training and testing.

Time will tell.
Thanks, good stuff Neil. So, thirty shelters and the FTU sounds a lot like the training squadron gets 14 PAA and the combat coded squadron gets 12 PAA for 26 PAA plus four spares gets to 30. For reference, at the 7 BW ages ago when the 28th was the Bone FTU (no WIC or test) the PAA was 14 while the 9th was 12 as the lone combat coded squadron.
 
Is one of the three B-2 squadrons a training squadron I assume? AFAIK there are only twelve combat coded B-2s.
 
If I remember, the B-1A was originally M=2, but this capability was given up with the B-1B variant, which, among other things, got rid of a dorsal spine, and simplified (iirc, removed the variable geometry) for the engine inlets and reduced top speed to about M=1.25.

The reason that the speed was reduced was that the USAF did not consider the compromises necessary for M>2 performance to reduce the aircraft's overall effectiveness.
 
If I remember, the B-1A was originally M=2, but this capability was given up with the B-1B variant, which, among other things, got rid of a dorsal spine, and simplified (iirc, removed the variable geometry) for the engine inlets and reduced top speed to about M=1.25.

The reason that the speed was reduced was that the USAF did not consider the compromises necessary for M>2 performance to reduce the aircraft's overall effectiveness.
The dorsal spine was a one-off.
 

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