US Belenko moment, F-14/15/16 in soviet/chinese hands

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lancer21

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Inspired by the discussion on Iran, suppose for a moment that they went for a split F-14/F-15 buy and/or the revolution takes places a bit later allowing the F-16s to arrive which i understand was planned for 1979. Supposed the new iranian government agrees to give to USSR/China samples of their US fighters in return for economic /military help or hefty payments or whatever.

My main interest is how would F-14/15 and possibly F-16 in soviet hands will affect their aircraft development. At this time the MiG-29 and Su-27 were not in service yet. Especially in regards to radars and electronics, would there be time to incorporate features or even downright copy the AWG-9, APG-63 and APG-66 for use on the MiG-29, Su-27 and other aircraft? How about the AIM-54, AIM-7F and AIM-9L?

Same question re China, they were far behind the USSR let alone the US in 1980, but with access to the US teens, radars, electronics, engines etc, it will be a revolution for them. Could we see chinese copies of F-14/15/16?

Also, was there a small possibility of an F-14 defecting from Iran before the revolution? Maybe a soviet plant, or a disgruntled pilot?
 
lancer21 said:
Also, was there a small possibility of an F-14 defecting from Iran before the revolution? Maybe a soviet plant, or a disgruntled pilot?
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No known defections of Iranians to the USSR in an F-14.

theaviationgeekclub.com

Soviets never received any (Iranian) Tomcat. But they published this F-14 “booklet” for their top fighter pilots. - The Aviation Geek Club

Soviets never received any (Iranian) Tomcat. But they published this F-14 “booklet” for their top fighter pilots.
theaviationgeekclub.com theaviationgeekclub.com

Interestingly enough, they have tried to recover F-14 aircraft, as indicated by the article below, but were unsuccessful.
theaviationgeekclub.com

The F-14 Tomcat posed such a serious threat to the Soviets that they once tried to fish one that fell off the aircraft carrier USS John F. Kennedy - The Aviation Geek Club

The F-14 Tomcat posed such a serious threat to the Soviets that they once tried to fish one that fell off the aircraft carrier USS John F. Kennedy
theaviationgeekclub.com theaviationgeekclub.com
 
Thanks for the input, and fascinating to hear about the attempted soviet F-14 recovery. Next best thing after a defection i guess, and it's very early to have happen in 1976, could have had major influence on soviet electronics in the works at the time.

In an ATL, perhaps they manage to snap the nose off with the AWG-9, and fetch that AIM-54. Or maybe a better equipped soviet ship is in the area to lift the whole F-14. Maybe they have the idea earlier of having a suitably equipped ship trailing US carriers just for the purpose of trying to "fish" any crashed US aircraft.

Fascinating premise. Was the F-14 carrying AIM-7F in 1976, or it's too early?
 
lancer21 said:
Inspired by the discussion on Iran, suppose for a moment that they went for a split F-14/F-15 buy and/or the revolution takes places a bit later allowing the F-16s to arrive which i understand was planned for 1979. Supposed the new iranian government agrees to give to USSR/China samples of their US fighters in return for economic /military help or hefty payments or whatever.

My main interest is how would F-14/15 and possibly F-16 in soviet hands will affect their aircraft development. At this time the MiG-29 and Su-27 were not in service yet. Especially in regards to radars and electronics, would there be time to incorporate features or even downright copy the AWG-9, APG-63 and APG-66 for use on the MiG-29, Su-27 and other aircraft? How about the AIM-54, AIM-7F and AIM-9L?

Same question re China, they were far behind the USSR let alone the US in 1980, but with access to the US teens, radars, electronics, engines etc, it will be a revolution for them. Could we see chinese copies of F-14/15/16?

Also, was there a small possibility of an F-14 defecting from Iran before the revolution? Maybe a soviet plant, or a disgruntled pilot?
Click to expand...

Main problem, before the revolution: the Shah and his supporters (including the elite pilots) were anti-communists.

Also: Iranian Tomcat pilots chased MiG-25s away late 1978, painting them with AWG-9 radar and scaring the living shit out of them.

Main problem, after the revolution: the Iranian communist party was decimated by Khomeiny and his bearded cronies.

Now, between February 1979 and the hostages crisis (November 1979) Iran could have fallen to a different anti-Shah leadership. The Mullahs did not dominated immediately, there was (AFAIK) a brief window of opportunity for something else.

Now that's one heck of a what-if: what-if by some miracle the communists carried the day, or at least a regime drifting close enough from USSR (or China) to pass them american military gear ?

Had the Soviets been a bit less dumbarse, instead of invading Afghanistan and get their asses kicked, they should have influenced post-Shah Iran to gain access a) to their oil and b) to their Tomcat and other US military gear.

But - it was Brezhnev, it was Andropov, terminally ill and seniles, plus all the others brontosaurus...
 
lancer21 said:
My main interest is how would F-14/15 and possibly F-16 in soviet hands will affect their aircraft development. At this time the MiG-29 and Su-27 were not in service yet. Especially in regards to radars and electronics, would there be time to incorporate features or even downright copy the AWG-9, APG-63 and APG-66 for use on the MiG-29, Su-27 and other aircraft? How about the AIM-54, AIM-7F and AIM-9L?
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The Soviets had already acquired the AIM-7 during Vietnam, and it heavily influenced development of the R-23 and R-27 missiles. Similarly, the R-33 and R-73 are already under development in 1979, and the latter especially is already better than the Lima Sidewinder. When it comes to weapons, at best I can see the Soviets reverse-engineering the Phoenix's ARH seeker to get the R-33S sooner.

As far as radars, Zaslon is also already under development, and frankly the problems with the MiG-29 and Su-27 radars are less on the design side and more manufacturing, a function of the more primitive Soviet electronics industry. I don't think having those radars on hand to take apart would help all that much.

Getting their hands on the F100, on the other hand, would likely help them a great deal with engine development, much like getting J79s helped them a great deal.

lancer21 said:
Same question re China, they were far behind the USSR let alone the US in 1980, but with access to the US teens, radars, electronics, engines etc, it will be a revolution for them. Could we see chinese copies of F-14/15/16?
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China straight-up does not have the technological and manufacturing expertise at this time to take advantage.
 
I often forget the Soviets (and the Chinese ?) collected Sidewinders, Sparrows and J79s out of Phantom wrecks in Vietnam. Was that story ever told in a (serious) book or technical paper ?

China straight-up does not have the technological and manufacturing expertise at this time to take advantage.
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Chang Hong (CH-1)

China's armed forces have operated the Chang Hong (CH-1) long-range, air-launched autonomous reconnaissance drone since the 1980s.
www.globalsecurity.org www.globalsecurity.org

They seemingly struggled to reverse-engineer the Ryan Firebee turbojet - J69, which was actually a licence-build Turboméca Marboré of Fouga Magister fame.

WP11 Engine

www.globalsecurity.org www.globalsecurity.org

Fun fact: both USSR and PRC got a very advanced Lockheed D-21B drone "for free": courtesy of failed missions and failing self-destruct systems, in November 1969 (USSR) and March 1971 (PRC). Only the Soviets tried to copy it, as the Tupolev Voron.

Back to Tomcats...
 
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There is an important aspect to remember is that the USSR didn’t necessarily lack detailed knowledge (plans etc.) of a lot of these US aircraft and their systems and weapons (via a combination of the Wests more open society and via espionage).
What they did lack was the ability to replicate and manufacture them (in some areas they were roughly a match, in others they were far behind, in very very few areas were they sustainably more advanced than their Western equivalents).
Hence a Belenko-type incident in the opposite direction is likely to be less useful to the USSR than the real-world equivalents of defections to the West.
 
Agreed. The issue with Soviet avionics was largely the state of Soviet computing technology.

Broadly speaking, the integrated circuit was more of an industrial manufacturing process revolution than an intellectual breakthrough. The Soviet Union didn't lack the theoretical understanding, the problem was the continual and relentless progress in miniaturisation and integration of components. As MSI and LSI moved to VLSI, there was an immense cost in continual retooling and upgrading of production processes. In the west, this cost was subsidised by widespread adoption of computing technologies in the civilian world - for example, the personal computer revolution. In the Soviet Union, this didn't happen, the Communist party was fearful of civilian and personal computer use, and computer production was skewed to military needs.

Large production runs helped the West master quality control and get good yields from each process. You get better by building a lot. The USSR struggled with lower volumes and a historic lack of attention to QA.

Spending on a new factory was centrally planned and funded, and constant demand for brand new processes and tooling was simply unaffordable. Each new generation of ICs improved on the processes of the generation before to shrink everything down again. It wasn't easy to skip forward several generations just because you had an example of a newer IC to analyse - the IC doesn't contain details on the process and techniques used in constructing it.

Therefore, getting a copy of an AN/APG-63 or AWG-9 wouldn't necessarily allow you to copy its circuits without researching and developing a whole new set of manufacturing processes and then building a brand new production line, at the expense of potentially millions or billions of rubles.
 
It is known that the Iranian F-14 was in the USSR and was tested. The issue of copying the aircraft, as far as I remember, was raised only twice. This concerned the B-29 and Me-262. Instead of the second, they made their own Su-9

Problems with radio electronics in the USSR had two reasons.
1. Cybernetics is a corrupt wench of imperialism https://zampolit-ru.livejournal.com/11880680.html
2. The choice of "closed architecture" in the seventies
 
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There was no Iranian f-14 in the USSR. This is the testimony of multiple Iranian pilots who were either F-14 pilots or high ranking IIAF/IRIAF members. Furthermore, not one single person from the Iranian side has ever made such a claim to the contrary including those who have a bone to pick with the regime and might want to use this as a tool to attack them.

There was an almost non existent chance of an F-14 pilot defecting to the USSR pre-revolution. The f-14 pilots were handpicked from the best phantom and tiger pilots and their loyalty to the Shah was made sure of. Air Force pilots were generally treated very favorably given the Air Force being the Shah’s favorite branch and the public having admiration and respect for them.

Post-revolution there might have been opportunities for defection with pilots being persecuted by the regime and the war carrying on for 6 years longer than it should have, however, if a pilot were to have defected they would most likely have gone to a U.S. ally. The vast majority of pilots were Pro-American and had animosity for Russia/USSR due to historical invasions and land grabs.
 
paralay said:
Problems with radio electronics in the USSR had two reasons.
1. Cybernetics is a corrupt wench of imperialism https://zampolit-ru.livejournal.com/11880680.html
2. The choice of "closed architecture" in the seventies
Click to expand...
I am struggling to stay polite.
A machine translation of part what was linked to:
Soviet Marxist ideologists did not like cybernetics and, as life has shown, they were right. The “Philosophical Dictionary” states with precise clarity: “Cybernetics is a reactionary pseudoscience that arose in the USA after World War II ... Cybernetics vividly expresses one of the main features of the bourgeois worldview - its inhumanity, the desire to turn workers into an appendage of the machine, into an instrument of production and a weapon of war … The instigators of a new world war are using cybernetics in their dirty practical deeds.” There was a joke in Moscow: "Cybernetics is the corrupt girl of imperialism."
Click to expand...

Cybernetics was and still is taught at Dutch universities as part of the syllabus in biology.
If you don't have a grasp of cybernetics, you don't have a grasp of biology.

Cybernetics is involved in any discipline that touches the concept of feedback.
en.wikipedia.org

Feedback - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

I may have missed an attempt at humourous comment.
 
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There was a period of attacks on cybernetics in the USSR. Perhaps there was some right meaning in this, but it prevented the development of technology
 
paralay said:
The issue of copying the aircraft, as far as I remember, was raised only twice. This concerned the B-29 and Me-262.
Click to expand...
North American F-86 and Lockheed U-2 also were subjects of copying, aren't they? The first one, indirectly, leads to the re-establishing of Sukhoi Design Bureau. And Beriev works on reverse-engineering of U-2. Perhaps, DC-3 could also been mentioned, as a basis of extensive modifications for the Soviet Li-2.
 
paralay said:
"Artificial intelligence", as a consequence of the development of cybernetics, already wants to kill a person....
Click to expand...
Applying scientific theory to the development of weaponry is a political decision. Its application to weaponry does not invalidate the theory.

The word cybernetics may have been coined in the 1940s, its mechanisms can be recognised over centuries of human history. In technology, as well as in politics. The discipline of cybernetics identifies these mechanisms, codifies them.

Back to Belenko?
 
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paralay said:
Li-2 was produced under license, the rest did not advance beyond the proposal
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Correct, though as Silencer1 notes the F-86 clone team under Kondratyev was folded into the reconstituted Sukhoi OKB and exposure to the F-86 seems to have influenced Sukhoi somewhat on the T-1 and subsequent Su-7 / Su-9 . The USSR did copy the F-86 ranging radar.
 
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paralay said:
Li-2 was produced under license
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That's true, however, the extensive works have been accomplished in order to adapt DC-3 to the Soviet standards and regulations. On the other hand, the familiarization with the state-of-the-art American fabrication technologies significantly boosts Soviet aircraft-production industry. Moreover, Li-2' line of modifications and versions allows to "close the gaps" in many needs of civil and military aviation: airliner, paratrooper transport, long-range bomber etc. IfI remember correctly, even the project of autogyro has been made on the basis of Li-2!
 
Thanks for the input, interesting to read the different views. My own opinion is that it's quite possible that this will be another german jets/engines/Tu-4/K-13/S-13/K-25 etc. moment for USSR, ie provide a leap forward.

First, having the actual aircraft means they will be dissected, analyzed and tested thus proving a good picture of their real capabilities, hence providing reccomendations on how to tackle them and develop countermeasures.

Second, especially having access to the electronics and computers will imo dramatically shorten the development of similar systems in USSR which they were doing anyway, by seeing what works and how it's done, saving time a lot of the trial and error inherent in such endeavours. Were they not just beggining to work on digital systems at this time comparable to the US systems, such as Zhuk, N-011 etc with slotted antennas, digital FBW systems etc. etc.? The soviet electronics industry was heading towards the same direction as the US regardless, isn't it?

Third, i think they would cherry pick items of interest to gradually integrate on the existing fighters, such as improved computers, displays, HUD, ECM etc, i suspect by the second half of the decade these could appear on MiG-29, Su-27, MiG-31 etc. providing f.e. TWS modes for the MiG-29, Su-27, improved situational awareness, better RWR and so on. While the likes of MiG-29M, Su-27M, MiG-31M might have their developments relatively less protracted/ shorter since they'd have access to US systems which were supposed to have soviets equivalents in the M series anyway?

Regarding the F-100PW-100 engine, apart from perhaps the materials, what would they find interesting about it (genuine question) ? As i understand already the RD-33 and AL-31F designs were frozen at this time isn't it? But perhaps they might get a smokeless RD-33.

And regarding the AIM-7F, yes the soviets studied and copied the AIM-7E (K-25), but the F is a generation ahead, what do you think they will find interesting about it, apart from the electronics obviously? They might incorporate such items of interest in the R-27R and ER later in the decade.
 
Regarding China, yes they were decades behind, but this will be even more revolutionary for them. At this time they were working anyway on their sort of F-16 equivalent, the J-13, having an actual F-16 i think they will just drop everything and proceed to copy it or morph it into a chinese equivalent. Same for the F-15. Yes it will take a long time, what i think will happen is one design institute will focus on F-16 and one on F-15. It will i think take at least 10 years just to get to prototype flight status, and at least 15 to production status but even if the chinese equivalents will be half as capable as the US original, it will still be a huge leap for them. Then they will gradually improve on that.

Meanwhile they will gradually integrate US based electronics, avionics and missiles into the existing J-7, J-8 and Q-5 as they are assimilated, though not sure about the honeymoon thing, the US will be absolutely pissed for China to have their hands on their latest fighters.

I think sino F-16 might be built instead of J-10 (but be ready several years earlier), and sino F-15 instead of the OTL J-11/Su-27 production (they might still buy Su-27/30 to bridge the gap), sort the same story like the Z-20 (based on UH-60 but not identical) and KJ-600 (based but not identical to E-2).

I don't know what they will do with the F-14 though, obviously the radar and AIM-54 will be of huge interest (OTL they were interested in the MiG-31 which had roughly similar capability), but they might integrate a sino Phoenix onto the sino F-15. Or alternatively build the sino F-14 fighter bomber instead of the JH-7? Though it's VG wing is adding needless complication, perhaps with a fixed wing, and sino F-100 engines.
 
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The fly in the ointment for China remains the engines. It took 23 years for the WS-10 to go from start of development to actual operational status, and that's with reverse-engineering the engine core from the CFM56. I seriously doubt it would be much easier to reverse-engineer the F100.

So there will still be incentive to go with the Su-27, since Russia was willing to just sell them engines, and license-building Su-27s would still be faster than finishing reverse-engineering the F-15.
lancer21 said:
I think sino F-16 might be built instead of J-10 (but be ready several years earlier)
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It won't be. Most of the delays on the J-10 were engine troubles that were not solved until China got their hands on Russian AL-31 production. Those engine troubles aren't going away.

lancer21 said:
I don't know what they will do with the F-14 though, obviously the radar and AIM-54 will be of huge interest (OTL they were interested in the MiG-31 which had roughly similar capability), but they might integrate a sino Phoenix onto the sino F-15. Or alternatively build the sino F-14 fighter bomber instead of the JH-7? Though it's VG wing is adding needless complication, perhaps with a fixed wing, and sino F-100 engines.
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Nope, the JH-7 started development before this defection happens.
 
The chinese had ambitious aircraft plans right off the 1960's but the horrors and carnage of the Cultural Revolution screwed or stalled a lot of advanced projects for more than a decade...
 
Having the actual F-100 to study and dissect should ease the design process by a lot, instead of building the WS-10 around the CFM core (but having to design from scratch everything else), they can just use the F-100 as a template. This should reduce development time by years even with the chinese initial uphill battle to design such an engine.

There is also the WP-15 as a back-up (which may see some cross polination with F-100 or TF-30). I wouldn't expect the sino F-15 and F-16 to fly for another 10 years at least, so either the prototypes have the WP-15, or initial WS-10/F-100 examples or russian AL-31.

While they will buy Su-27/30, i doubt they will throw away 15 years of work on the sino F-15, plus it will have one big advantage, it will be entirely chinese and not subject to whatever licence conditions were agreed for Su-27. They could modify and sell the sino F-15 as they please. Same reason they HAVEN'T bought and licenced the MiG-29 instead of J-10.

Re the J-10, i still think the temptation would be great to go with the tried and tested and availabe F-16 configuration, which was tried in the J-13 design, unless they really wanted it to be a canard. But still, access to F-16 would greatly help with things like FBW design etc. etc.

As to the JH-7, design has barely started by 1980, and it's an inferior airframe compared to a fixed wing sino F-14, so it can be easily cancelled. Or they just go the US way and design a sort of chinese F-15E (based on the captured F-15), so they focus on only 2 airframes.

Really there are so many fascinating possibilities.
 
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Concerning this subject, years ago I downloaded a grainy satellite photo from the net showing a couple of F-14s purportedly on the ramp of a Soviet airfield across from the northern Iranian border. This was at the time of the revolution ousting the Shah's government. I can't seem to locate it as this topic has come up again. When originally posted it was dismissed as a hoax and was strongly denied.
A USAF friend of mine who used to work intel in Iran when the Shah was in power told me an Iranian pilot that got out to America related to him that as they were lopping of the heads of high ranking officials a few high ranking pilots escaped in a small number of F-14s to a Soviet airfield.
It would seem this subject is in the realm of bigfoot and UFOs and quickly dismissed but it would be interesting to run it to ground.

I was wondering if anyone had a copy of that photo?
 
Can you explain reasons for Russians to keep it in secret still?
 

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