Tupolev Tu-454

ComradeVortex said:
And this Tu-454 is also new to me…
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Not sure it's worth a separate topic yet, as out of all these aircraft, IMHO, at most one has a (financial) shot at getting built.
 

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How I see this whole thing:

-Russia doesn't really have a proper economic case for a long-range/widebody. Not enough captive market, hard to build a 1:1 competitive product while sanctioned.
-Russia has one hell of a political case for a long-range widebody. It's both basic connectivity of the large country, and prevailing geopolitical need: if you rely on faraway countries to counterbalance west, you at least have to be able to reach them.

It creates a painful dilemma, as needs aren't truly compatible:
"Core" need is relatively smaller, moderate range widebody.
Geopolitical need is a very long-range (any friendly capital) and impressive representative aircraft.
All that without enough money to finance even one proper development, but a clear need to produce something.


And here we have the options - all of which are reasonable in their own right, but none is a complete answer.
(1)MS-21-500: likely most competitive; best match and economic case for Russian needs, but worst for international purposes; there's also nothing directly available for it, it's a new aircraft.
(2)Tu-454 and MS-21-600: two competing projects, jumping off from the financed PD-26 engine. Reasonable medium, but neither best economic case nor the best geopolitical statement.

(3)Il-296: jumps off from Il-496(Il-96M) with new wing and demonstrated(but not built) PD-35; best realistic geopolitical statement, and best candidate for major long-haul routes(Far East, South East Asia, North America...eventually).
(4)SHFDMS: actually fully designed, but dead in water due to excellent risk management practices(RR engines); requires completely new engines.
Least competitive, and most competitive at the same time: China still will be doing that one way or another. If China does it alone, all gone, but designing a competitive widebody all by itself on the first try will be a very risky/ambitious project. Esp. since it appears that most actual design job on C(R)929 was done in Russia, and without it, it's just as dead in China, sanctions or no. I.e. either China starts ~from scratch, or it resurrects what's already done, but together.
 
 
Any chance of Tupolev getting any funds for even the smallest number possible for a Russian government order like VIP transport or similar with the MC-21 available for similar use
 

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