IAI Arrow 3

Arrow 3, people, discuss it or take the discussion elsewhere.
 
Is there any indication yet as to how many Arrow 3s the IDF fired at Iranian ballistic missiles?
 
NMaude said:
Is there any indication yet as to how many Arrow 3s the IDF fired at Iranian ballistic missiles?
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This is a good point. Based on the fact there were 120 BMs, 36 CMs and 185 drones, that's only 341 objects total. If an Arrow 3 costs $3.5m, then unless an Arrow 3 was fired at every single once of them, these estimates of $1-1.3bn do not hold water. Even if an Arrow 3 was used on every BM, that's $420m, and assuming a David's Sling ($1m) for the other 221 missiles/drones, that's only $640m. And we know some drones were shot down with APKWS and Sidewinder outside Israel. So the total cost was likely nearer $500m.

Now given that Iran used 50 MRBMs, plus 70 SRBMs, plus 36 CMs and 185 large drones, what's the bet that cost something similar? And last I looked Israel's GDP is ~25% higher than Iran's.

Archibald said:
From another thread (source @Grey Havoc )
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Former financial advisor to the IDF Chief of General Staff estimates a cost of about 4-5 billion NIS, or 1-1.3 billion USD.

https://www.ynet.co.il/economy/article/rkl6kwygr

This is not sustainable. This is 5% of the IDF's annual budget spent in one night.

A single David's Sling missile costs $1 million. A single Arrow costs $3.5 million without specifying the variant (likely Arrow 2).

He estimates the cost for Iran was about 10% of that.
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Forest Green said:
This is a good point. Based on the fact there were 120 BMs, 36 CMs and 185 drones, that's only 341 objects total. If an Arrow 3 costs $3.5m, then unless an Arrow 3 was fired at every single once of them, these estimates of $1-1.3bn do not hold water. Even if an Arrow 3 was used on every BM, that's $420m, and assuming a David's Sling ($1m) for the other 221 missiles/drones, that's only $640m. And we know some drones were shot down with APKWS and Sidewinder outside Israel. So the total cost was likely nearer $500m.

Now given that Iran used 50 MRBMs, plus 70 SRBMs, plus 36 CMs and 185 large drones, what's the bet that cost something similar? And last I looked Israel's GDP is ~25% higher than Iran's.
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Plus, Israel has options for international sourcing of components that Iran doesn't. Or, if Iran does, has to spend a lot more for them due to needing to smuggle them in. I've heard that the markup on smuggled goods is usually upwards of 200%.
 
Germany is buying Arrow 4 to complement their Arrow 3 systems

The Air Force has decided to procure Arrow 4 air defense system currently in development in Israel. This is what the deputy inspector of the Luftwaffe, Lieutenant General Lutz Kohlhaus, said this today in his opening speech at the Ground Based Air Defence Summit of CPM GmbH in Berlin.
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www.hartpunkt.de

Bundeswehr will israelisches Waffensystem Arrow 4 beschaffen

Die Luftwaffe hat sich dazu entschieden, dass gegenwärtig in Israel in Entwicklung befindliche Luftverteidigungssystem Arrow 4 zu beschaffen.
www.hartpunkt.de www.hartpunkt.de
 
NMaude said:
There's an Arrow 4? That's news to me.
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Not yet. But there will be, quite soon. Given how important BMD is for Israel and the 2nd wind from customers.

Development of Arrow 4 was first reported in 2017.
www.defensenews.com

Israel begins concept work on Arrow-4 defender

Israel is working with state-owned Israel Aerospace Industries and other firms to evaluate technologies needed to improve the ability to track, target and ultimately destroy threats.
www.defensenews.com www.defensenews.com

Development of Arrow 5 was briefly mentioned in 2023.
www.calcalist.co.il

העסקה הביטחונית הגדולה בתולדות המדינה: אושרה מכירת חץ 3 לגרמניה בכ-14 מיליארד ש' | כלכליסט

זו הפעם הראשונה שמערכת הנשק המתקדמת מיוצאת לחו"ל. ההתעניינות של גרמניה במערכת של התעשייה האווירית עלתה דרמטית בעקבות פלישת רוסיה לאוקראינה. לדברי מנכ"ל תע"א, בועז לוי, פיתוח הדורות הבאים של מערכת ההגנה מפני טילים נמצאת בעיצומה ולא תופרע בשל הפניית משאבים
www.calcalist.co.il www.calcalist.co.il

Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 both comprise the AWS - Arrow Weapon System.
Arrow 3 covers the exo-atmospheric region and Arrow 2 the upper atmospheric region. Below them are David's Sling and until recently Patriot.

In contrast with the Hartpunkt report, which I may have mistranslated, Arrow 4 is a replacement of Arrow 2, not its evolution.
Similarly Arrow 5 is a replacement of Arrow 3.
Because the 2023 article says IAI is developing Arrow 5 from its own funds, it indicates very early, perhaps conceptual stage of development. But Arrow 4 is supposed to be right around the corner, and by the time Arrow 3 are delivered to Germany in critical mass - it could be ready for production as well.
 

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