SpaceX

We know that Starship can work - it's a reusable two stage rocket. Two big unknowns remain (which are related): the heatshield and its refurbishment, which impacts the turnaround and flight rate.
 
2026 will be moment of truth for Starship
Completion of Launch pad 1 and 3 (4 and 5 ?) and Gigabays will increase the launch cadence for Starship.
also return to launch site for Starship and catch with Mechazilla
and rendezvous of Starship for Tanking

However the Program stand or fail with Heatshield.
if there issue, SpaceX could operate Superheavy/Starship like Falcon 9 expelling second stage
Either until they found alternative Heatshield or continue operation with cheaper Starship disposal variant
 
Forest Green said:

SpaceX to launch next SDA missile tracking satellites​

SpaceX will launch 36 Tranche 2 Tracking Layer satellites — 18 built by L3Harris and 18 built by Lockheed Martin — plus eight FOO Fighter birds built by Millennium Space Systems.
breakingdefense.com

SpaceX to launch next SDA missile tracking satellites - Breaking Defense

SpaceX will launch 36 Tranche 2 Tracking Layer satellites — 18 built by L3Harris and 18 built by Lockheed Martin — plus eight FOO Fighter birds built by Millennium Space Systems.
breakingdefense.com breakingdefense.com
Click to expand...
 
Sferrin said:
IMO ULA is circling the drain.
Click to expand...
After Tony Bruno left ULA, the company is without leadership,
Since owners Boeing/Lockheed-Martin has no clou what to do,
and try to sell ULA unsuccessful.

Would Blue Origin buy ULA ?
I think not, why ?
BO has reusable New Glenn family, so why use disposable Vulcan Centaur ?
to make matter worst Tony Bruno work now at BO for Military contracts,
ULA cloud lost it major client the DoD !
 
Byeman said:
Not with more than 70 orders. More than than the total of Delta IV or Titan IV.
Click to expand...
If you take out Amazon and USSF launches you get to almost zero. I suspect once BO is really up and running then Amazon launches will transition to them and then ULA might only have the USSF launches as their staple. That market has also transitioned away from them over the last ten years as well. I expect the US Govt will keep them around and available as an additional launch provider but the future is hardly bright even with a new rocket. Were it available I wouldn't be buying ULA stock as a long term investment...
 
Ozair said:
If you take out Amazon and USSF launches you get to almost zero. I suspect once BO is really up and running then Amazon launches will transition to them and then ULA might only have the USSF launches as their staple. That market has also transitioned away from them over the last ten years as well. I expect the US Govt will keep them around and available as an additional launch provider but the future is hardly bright even with a new rocket. Were it available I wouldn't be buying ULA stock as a long term investment...
Click to expand...
A. Air Force and NASA launches is all they did in the first place. They will get some NASA launches soon
B. They were always contract to contract.
C. You never could buy ULA stock in the first place. It is owned by Boeing and LM
 
Byeman said:
Not with more than 70 orders. More than than the total of Delta IV or Titan IV.
Click to expand...
yes but would help that ULA on long term ?

I mean with growing reusable rockets Market (SpaceX, Blue Origin, RocketLab, Stroke etc.)
Vulcan-centaur could end up too expensive to launch in market that offers cheap launch prices.
 
Byeman said:
A. Air Force and NASA launches is all they did in the first place. They will get some NASA launches soon
B. They were always contract to contract.
C. You never could buy ULA stock in the first place. It is owned by Boeing and LM
Click to expand...
A: the launch market was smaller than it is today and there were essentially no competitors
B: large bulk contracts across multiple years and guaranteed govt contracts
C: Yes which is why I said "were it available"
 
Ozair said:
A: the launch market was smaller than it is today and there were essentially no competitors
B: large bulk contracts across multiple years and guaranteed govt contracts
Click to expand...
a. not really.
b1. They were not "guaranteed"
b.2 There were not large or bulk
 
Byeman said:
a. not really.
b1. They were not "guaranteed"
b.2 There were not large or bulk
Click to expand...
A: The US Govt is launching more satellites this decade and will continue to do so than it has in previous decades when the non traditionals were not in the marketplace. The non traditionals are taking the majority of those future launches. NSSL P3 L2 is a good example. ULA have gone from taking 95%+ of US Govt launches to 40%. Seems doubtful they will ever return to their dominant position.
B: Honest question, who else was the US Govt going to use other than Boeing and LM and after they became ULA? All Delta IV missions bar one were US Govt. Atlas V launches were 90%+ US Govt. How is that not guaranteed?
 
Ozair said:
A: The US Govt is launching more satellites this decade and will continue to do so than it has in previous decades when the non traditionals were not in the marketplace. .....
B: Honest question, who else was the US Govt going to use other than Boeing and LM and after they became ULA? All Delta IV missions bar one were US Govt. Atlas V launches were 90%+ US Govt. How is that not guaranteed?
Click to expand...
A. Not really. Still the same number of overall launches.
B. It had nothing to do with the formation of ULA. They were developed for the US gov't.
 
current state of Gigabay
G-5VKZUXsAEjvDd
 
Not quite half-way to R-7 numbers…but they will get there…faster if Starship founders

Elon needs to burn his skeptic card

On slosh hazards

Normally, a thin layer of air prevents a liquid from hitting a surface directly. The gas acts as a cushion and dampens the blow. In LNG ships, that air has been replaced by vapor from the LNG itself. And that vapor can condense back into liquid during impact. As a result, the cushion disappears, and the load on the wall increases sharply….It didn’t stop at drops. In another study, the team had a metal disk smash into the surface of a bath of the same liquid. By only lowering the temperature slightly, the maximum pressure on impact increased up to 15 times.

Think of it this way—every SS/SH launch ends in a violent RTLS abort type maneuver that can't help but slosh liquid methane about.

How safe does that seem now looking at things with different eyes?

Maybe this is why Boeing wanted wings for Space Freighter?
https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXMasterrace/comments/1h3iyoq/the_boeing_space_freighter_was_a_project_that

Less slosh with gliding, I would think.

But Elon likes his explosive propellants shaken, and not stirred, I suppose.
 
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BAROBA said:
Thanks Michel,
Only off by 2.88 million people.
You were in high school in the 1980's? :D
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on what, Belgium or Starlink ?
yeah was in school in Belgium, survived there 3 attempted murder...
 
Belgium :)
We are with 11.88 million now. When I went to school it was just shy over 9 million..
I know the feeling... I have some fun memories of high school too...
I was an average looking nerdy guy who hanged out with other nerdy kids... So we got our sharing of tough guys wanted to prove themselves.. Until one summer I learned myself some boxing-techniques, some weightlifting and some martial-arts.. All from books...
The first few weeks back in school were...Interesting...
The next years there was always a new guy that wanted to show how bad ass he was.. Somehow he always ended up with me.. And a face full of dirt... A fight always lasted about one second. The rest of the year was quiet...
 

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