SpaceX Newsletter

[Michel Van]

before Musk sell the Bear skin, he must shot a bear!

Means fist get new Falcon 9 into orbit without problems.
then try to land the first stage in one piece !
and the Grasshopper trials are nothing compare to trajectory or better say falling down of falcon 9 first stage after use.


See what happen on Falcon one flights, how first stage "reuse" test ended all failures.

 

[blackstar]

before Musk sell the Bear skin, he must shot a bear!

Means fist get new Falcon 9 into orbit without problems.

I'm guessing that's a Russian saying?

SpaceX has to do more than simply launch their rocket. They have to do that again and again, reliably, and on schedule.

I believe that SpaceX originally had something like 4 launches scheduled for 2013 and as of mid-September they have so far done 1. They will certainly not do all 4, and are probably likely to only accomplish 2. I think they have 6 launches scheduled for 2014 (and to that you could add however many they miss in 2013--so does that mean EIGHT launches to accomplish in 2014?).

So far they have been a boutique company, building one at a time. What they need to demonstrate is that they can build and launch regularly, with high reliability. Lots of people get caught up in the fact that they have all these orders. But most of them are simply provisional, meaning that the buyer can walk away after a certain time.

 

[Bill Walker]

I wonder if the 25% reduction is a misunderstanding of what he said. In another interview he said the first stage accounts for 3/4ths of the cost.

SpaceX Chief Says Reusable First Stage Will Slash Launch Costs
By Peter B. de Selding | May. 31, 2013

Musk said that a rocket’s first stage accounts for three-quarters of its total price tag, so a vehicle with a reusable first stage can be produced at far less cost — assuming the hardware is fully and rapidly reusable.
http://www.spacenews.com/article/launch-report/35562spacex-chief-says-reusable-first-stage-will-slash-launch-costs

So if reusability can cut that by a factor of 1/00, that should be large reduction in the total cost. It would appear the total cost should be reduced to be 25% of the original cost, not simply reduced by 25%.

Bob Clark

Just because you can re-use the first stage doesn't mean you can re-use it for free. It has to be recovered, inspected, possibly repaired, probably transported a few times, and re-fueled. That all takes time, facilities, and mostly money. Reducing to 25% is just not realistic.

 

[OM]

before Musk sell the Bear skin, he must shot a bear!

...Yes, but the problem is that while Elon *has* been shooting bear, instead of bagging Yogi, he's only managed to wound Boo-Boo.


[Old Rooskii proverb vs American hunting joke]