In addition, the Russians conduct extremely effective counter-drone actions, focusing on the fight against both Ukrainian intelligence and strike drones. Since most of the Ukrainian logistics currently relies on unmanned aerial vehicles, their systematic elimination is a serious problem. At the battalion level 70-80% of logistics efforts go to the supply of UAV units, and only 20-30 percent to support the infantry. Preserving the capabilities of UAVs is a higher priority for Ukrainians than ensuring the actions of linear units.
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Where will this war be in six months?
This, of course, is very difficult to predict. Our baseline scenario assumes that the previous pattern of actions will continue, but we observe that the front is beginning to gradually "leak". The Russians have imposed a war of attrition on Ukraine, and Kiev decided to take up the challenge, which at some point could lead to a sharp acceleration of events. Perhaps we are now entering the first stage. It remains an open question whether the crash will occur or whether the Ukrainians will decide to move additional strategic reserves and specialized drone units to stop the Russian flow of unmanned aerial vehicles. The Ukrainian Command of unmanned Systems appears to be closely studying the actions of the Russians, and in the coming weeks and months, it will prioritize the destruction of Rubicon drone units and other Russian unmanned formations.
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As for the implementation of a strategic operation, the purpose of which would be to reverse the negative trend that the Ukrainians have been in for two years, there is currently no chance. The Ukrainians are too short of troops. Although, given the character and personality of General Sirsky, I would not be at all surprised if limited offensive operations were undertaken.
Could more help by the West make a difference here?
In my opinion, no. The fundamental problems faced by Ukrainians are Ukrainian problems. This applies to: the quality of command, the number of soldiers on the front line, the methods of using forces, both manpower and drones. etc. [..] The transfer of hundreds more ATACMS missiles to the Ukrainians would not change the nature of this war. After all, to recapture a town, you need infantry, supported by drones and artillery. And the Ukrainians are short of infantry, artillery is effectively defeated - Western equipment is not a panacea for all the problems of Ukraine. The main problems that Ukraine faces must be solved by the government in Kiev, and not by Western states.