RuAF future trends?

[Ainen]

That would be sensible, non-VLO Ru MPA doesn't have wartime value v NATO. Force ratio over maritime flanks is simply not there.

Tu-202(origin of PAK-DA) was a very long range MPA in the first place; it can be a return to the roots of sorts.

4 man crew will be useful, too.

 

[Avimimus]

This mass wasn't achievable via flankers (in fact, it's hard to say what even was achievable via flanker fleets; fighting with Japan?), it isn't achievable via Su-57.

Almost all of the Su-27 were supplied to the PVO (and a few to the naval units). The Mig-29 was supposed to be the main VVS fighter.

TU-142?????

PAK DA, if it ever arrives, as a Maritime Patrol Aircraft????

I suspect Russia is looking at TU-204 for that role... (suspect MC-21 and SJ-100 are not suitable for conversion for a variety of factors).

It depends on the task. If the Maritime Patrol requires very long range and carrying a large number of anti-ship missiles... there is a conceivable role for at least some of the PAK DA having dual use.

 

[Ainen]

Almost all of the Su-27 were supplied to the PVO (and a few to the naval units). The Mig-29 was supposed to be the main VVS fighter.

That was Soviet Union. 2000-2010s VKS and MA shifted into flankers almost entirely.
Mig procurement was limited to roughly 2 regiments of SMT/UB, 1 rgt of 29KR for the navy, and some mig-35s (less than squadron) for T&E.
Large part of that is mig fault, but result is still the same.

 

[Scott Kenny]

I don't know if Russia will ever design a Maritime Patrol Aircraft based on the PAK-DA as they did with the Tu-95/Tu-142 pair, but as I see it now they might in the future when the PAK-DA finally enters service whenever that will be.

I'm not feeling that. IMO a converted airliner is more likely.

I don't see the reasoning for an LO MPA.

 

[Ainen]

I'm not feeling that. IMO a converted airliner is more likely.

I don't see the reasoning for an LO MPA.

Proliferation of LO fighter aircraft, against which it's almost impossible to protect a pax jet - especially in Russian conditions.
It's conceivable that China can set up a persistent security mesh that can keep MPAs safe.

But Russia? Norway alone has 52 F-35s; that's without others. That's also before we compare general force ratios - i.e. that even without stealth aircraft, working conditions are just unfeasible for Russian MPAs exactly in the seas where they're needed the most.

Flip side of the coin is of course that Norwegian/British P-8s can be potentially just as thoroughly screwed by, among others, PAK-DAs themselves. Potentially, in interesting combinations: since "810"(next generation LRAAM) fits into the Russian standard bay, it means it fits into literally any bay aircraft conceived, from cheap "incr. 1" Grom onwards.