Possible upcoming skirmish (or worse) in or around Korean Peninsula?

[Grey Havoc]

The South Korean Military still has yet to truly recover from the (dire) failure of leadership of the last few ROK governments, and the new government hasn't started out well. The US Forces on the ground can no longer be even considered a 'tripwire force' (thanks to Rumsfeld, though Gates didn't help). Real reinforcement of the theater in a reasonable timeframe if a major conflict breaks out must be considered doubtful, in part due to the policies and biases of the current US administration ('Diversity' alone has proven very effective at rotting the US Army and other Armed Services from the inside out, adding to the existing/ongoing damage from TMA). The USAF is something of a busted flush, due in part to an over emphasis on drone warfare in the last decade. The US Navy in particular is in a very poor state, material and personnel wise. And the USMC has major problems of it's own. As for other UN Forces, well... [grimaces]

Added to the fact that, except for certain favoured 'minorities'/groupings, morale is at rock bottom in the services, and you have a recipe for disaster. Without allied tactical nukes in place, South Korea may actually be much in the same position as pre-Blitzkrieg France.

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

The South Korean Military still has yet to truly recover from the (dire) failure of leadership of the last few ROK governments, and the new government hasn't started out well. The US Forces on the ground can no longer be even considered a 'tripwire force' (thanks to Rumsfeld, though Gates didn't help). Real reinforcement of the theater in a reasonable timeframe if a major conflict breaks out must be considered doubtful, in part due to the policies and biases of the current US administration ('Diversity' alone has proven very effective at rotting the US Army and other Armed Services from the inside out, adding to the existing/ongoing damage from TMA). The USAF is something of a busted flush, due in part to an over emphasis on drone warfare in the last decade. The US Navy in particular is in a very poor state, material and personnel wise. And the USMC has major problems of it's own. As for other UN Forces, well... [grimaces]

Added to the fact that, except for certain favoured 'minorities'/groupings, morale is at rock bottom in the services, and you have a recipe for disaster. Without allied tactical nukes in place, South Korea may actually be much in the same position as pre-Blitzkrieg France.

Morale in the US Military is pretty damn high actually, I know because all my closest friends are in still in it. (though some of them are indeed unhappy with women in combat, and no one likes the budget cuts, but in time of war, funding happens) they are crossing their fingers for Korea, especially the Reservists.

The USAF still has an extremely credible force, and a lot of that force is combat tested (and no I'm not talking just drones) Conventional warfare would be lovingly welcomed BTW. the mere fact that the USAF had no problems sending a B-2 mock attack from central Missouri tells me that jets are ready and serviceable. There is almost always an ARG or Super Carrier around (I'm betting both are there now or close with more to follow thanks to NK telegraphing their intentions to anyone who will hear)
Just because drones make the headlines, doesn't mean the rest of the military isn't training as usual, deploying, participating in Red Flags and other combat practice.

I actually feel more confident now than I would have in 2000. IMHO you are very much cherry picking here. I think we still have an extremely lethal force, made more lethal with actual real world experience, and ever improving weapons; and you think that the WoT has degraded all other aspects of warfare, while busting the morale of the force. Even if the conventional forces remained static post 2000 they are being crewed by much more capable and experienced individuals. (yes, even the minorities :)

The USMC has actually recieved more funding the last 11 years (and an increase in size) then it has in a LONG time. The only problem with the Marines right now it getting back into the mode of NOT being flushed with cash like we have been for a while.

the recent attack in Libya shows that the US still has what it takes in conventional warfare, and that wasn't even a full court press.

USN pacific fleet still rules the roost by a wide margin...

The very fact that the US is participating in the Korean exersizes, (as it always does year after year,) shows the force is quiet capable. I would be concerned if the exersizes were being canceled and the B-2s too busted to fly, and F-15s, F-16s unable to fly etc.

I'm not saying the US military is perfect, or that it doesn;t have problems, its just that those problems tend to disappear when its time to beat the bejesus out of someone. At the very least ROK/US problems will not be nearly as bad as NK problems. AKA Food, money for training, etc.

i can't vouch for the ROK, but I have heard nothing but things about the individuals involved in it. very competent and capable bunch which is still possible, despite idiotic leadership (the US knows something about this too)

If NK goes out on their own, against a force that has never been asleep on the job. (Korea always being a potential powder keg) I am not worried. If China goes with NK (not likely) you have a world war on your hands and that does get much tougher. If NK goes nuclear, that even easier because conventional forces don't have to be as overwhelming, we have just a tad more nukes than NK

 

[Grey Havoc]

I'm still dubious, but I suppose the proof will be in the pudding.

 

[chuck4]

The South Korean Military still has yet to truly recover from the (dire) failure of leadership of the last few ROK governments, and the new government hasn't started out well. The US Forces on the ground can no longer be even considered a 'tripwire force' (thanks to Rumsfeld, though Gates didn't help). Real reinforcement of the theater in a reasonable timeframe if a major conflict breaks out must be considered doubtful, in part due to the policies and biases of the current US administration ('Diversity' alone has proven very effective at rotting the US Army and other Armed Services from the inside out, adding to the existing/ongoing damage from TMA). The USAF is something of a busted flush, due in part to an over emphasis on drone warfare in the last decade. The US Navy in particular is in a very poor state, material and personnel wise. And the USMC has major problems of it's own. As for other UN Forces, well... [grimaces]

Added to the fact that, except for certain favoured 'minorities'/groupings, morale is at rock bottom in the services, and you have a recipe for disaster. Without allied tactical nukes in place, South Korea may actually be much in the same position as pre-Blitzkrieg France.

This analogy is ridiculous. Pre-blitzkrieg France faced the one of the most modern army and airforce in the world, easily the best trained, with the most progressive tactical doctrine in the world, backed by a enormous reserve of me power with as much combat experience as any on earth. You are telling me this role is now assumed by North Korea?

If the capability and morale of ROK and US is to be asserted to bd the equivalent of 1940 France, then i think that of North Korea might be the equivalent of a mix of 1936 Ethiopia and 1938, Poland, rather than 1940 Germany.

 

[Evil Flower]

North Korea has been planning and preparing for this assault for 60 years straight. That has to account for something.

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

North Korea has been planning and preparing for this assault for 60 years straight. That has to account for something.

That cuts both ways

 

[chuck4]

North Korea has been planning and preparing for this assault for 60 years straight. That has to account for something.

They've been overpreparing for the narrow military preparedness aspect of war with the south, and chronically underinvesting in everything else that really matters in any war - technological capability,industrial capacity, financial strength and geopolitical alliances, that their actual war fighting capability is very weak.


They really don't have the ability to invade the south in the sense of taking and holding terrotory, nor even fight a true war with the south in any the sense of realistically expecting achievement of durable improvement in the economic, military or geopolitical position of the north via military action. All they've got is the ability to launch one massive, suicidal spoiling raid across the DMZ, and that's it. They shot their wad and Kim can go into his bomb proof bunker and swallow his cyanide capsule.


For those who are fixated on ever higher military budget for ever greater short term preparedness, north Korea ought to offer a shinning example of just what over investment in the military buys in terms of national strength and true war fighting capability in the long term.

 

[2IDSGT]

All they've got is the ability to launch one massive, suicidal spoiling raid across the DMZ, and that's it. They shot their wad and Kim can go into his bomb proof bunker and swallow his cyanide capsule.

Second that.

Afterword, China would doubtless be one of the first to send blankets, food, medicine and toys to the devastated areas, though I doubt the PRC would actually be all that broken-up about the removal of Korea as an economic competitor in the region.

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

They really don't have the ability to invade the south in the sense of taking and holding terrotory, nor even fight a true war with the south in any the sense of realistically expecting achievement of durable improvement in the economic, military or geopolitical position of the north via military action. All they've got is the ability to launch one massive, suicidal spoiling raid across the DMZ, and that's it. They shot their wad and Kim can go into his bomb proof bunker and swallow his cyanide capsule.

I agree. North Korean occupation will last as long as South Korean food stocks last

If the South opened a clear corridor from the DMZ to Pusan I would love to see how far the North could get unopposed. Tanks are hungry beasts, and I don't think North K has a lot of practice with long road marches, and all the wonderful logistics that entails.

I think the north would expend itself, gain ground at great cost, be slowed, and then stopped, with a counter attack that goes straight to Pyongyang. Not that that could ever happen:

If you even wanted to drive that far. South Korea doesn't have to "win" they just have to "not lose" a propaganda state held together by force of arms, isn't much when the arms are destroyed and the propaganda clearly shown.

Thats not to say I think it would be "easy" or "bloodless" but North Korea is a country unlike any other and its fragile in interesting ways.

I have seen the "rogue dictator state against world" act time and again, and damned if the world doesn't win every time. Even if North Korea took the south in an incredible blitzkreig attack, how on earth do they survive the war to liberate the south by the world? they hold it for about as long as it takes the west to get their act together. Iraq held Kuwait for what... Seven months?

 

[chuck4]

All they've got is the ability to launch one massive, suicidal spoiling raid across the DMZ, and that's it. They shot their wad and Kim can go into his bomb proof bunker and swallow his cyanide capsule.

Second that.

Afterword, China would doubtless be one of the first to send blankets, food, medicine and toys to the devastated areas, though I doubt the PRC would actually be all that broken-up about the removal of Korea as an economic competitor in the region.

I think the Chinese would take the opportunity to invade north Korea and establish a buffer zone to keep Americans and South Koreans away from their borders. If they succeed they would have no reason to let Kim regime survive even as a puppet because it would not be to their benefit to be too closely associated with the blunders of the kim regime after the war.

So I can see no possible good outcome for Kim in attacking.

 

[TomS]

Even with all their "preparations" the NKA can't roll south without at minimum days of mobilization. And when they do, JSTARS has its best week ever while US bombers dump damned near every Sensor Fuzed Weapon in the inventory into the advancing force. The ROK military may have its issues, but I'd be pretty confident of their ability to stop and hold a North Korean offensive blunted by US and ROKAF air power.


My favorite tactic would be a series of poorly concealed food depots along the main line of advance. See the Germany 1918 offensive, where Germans troops in several areas stalled when they found abandoned British supply depots just behind the lines.

 

[GTX]

Have you ever considered that it is in Sth Korea's interest to have the Nth Koreans constantly ranting and making noise like this?

 

[Steve Pace]

Kim's a spoiled brat and needs a good spanking! -SP

 

[chuck4]

Have you ever considered that it is in Sth Korea's interest to have the Nth Koreans constantly ranting and making noise like this?

It's not really. It makes south Korea look weak and it's future exposed to uncertainty and doubt, which also effects it investment environment. It makes Korea come across as still an troubled, internally divided country ever on the verge of civil war and groping and stumbling in the dark to sort its own house out.


As long as the north remains quite, people can forget Korea is technically divided and can believe the south can develop smoothly and in time absorb north Korea peacefully. When north Korea act up people have to start to discount the possibility of south Korea developing peacefully to any great status without a bloody civil war or possibly become embroiled in a war with china over north Korea.


A quite north Korea is definitely more in south Korea's interest than a bellicose and ostensibly insane north Korea.




Incidentally, china has the same perception and aspiration with respect to Taiwan. The Chinese thinks so long as Taiwan remains outside beijing's control, china would come across as something less than a superpower because the country is not united and has not gotten its own house in order. it also thinks the rest of the world ought to just accept that china will grow smoothly and eventually absorb Taiwan peacefully. Part of this goal is to be achieved by gradually robbing Taiwan of any capacity to be an independent power, such as a significant military. This is why American sales of arms to Taiwan unfailingly raise howls of protest from Beijing and cause Beijing to retaliate in a variety of ways diplomatically, economically and commercially.

 

[GTX]

Why would the the Sth even want to absorb the Nth?

 

[chuck4]

Why would the the Sth even want to absorb the Nth?

Because without north Korea, south Korea of about 45 million people would be too small to ever be mentioned in the same breath as Japan, much less china. It would always be a second rate power even in its own backyard, having to truckle to one outside power or another for it's own security, that is assuming it doesn't have to further divide its relatively meager resources to deal with its own countrymen across DMZ.


Uniting all Koreans under the same state is not only a long cherished national dream, it would also give Korea about 70 million people, sufficient to make itself a power eventually more or less on par with, say, France or even Germany, not to be neglected even in the neighborhood of Japan and china.


Furthermore, a united Korea means the Chinese can't keep Korea down by simply playing one Korea off against the other. It also means for the large Korean diaspora in china, these is now a real national homeland to look to. If all Korean diaspora in china returns to a united Korea, Korea would have 90 million people, that would put it in Japan's league, which honestly, is perhaps the deepest Korean aspiration of them all.

 

[kcran567]

Exactly. Are you really interested in setting up to do business in S Korea if N Korea is constantly threatening to rain nuclear hell down and turn S Korea into a red hot molten sea of fire? even if the threats are hollow, it gives cause for concern to business.


Also, NK promised to rain nucear hell on Los Angeles, Austin TX, and New York. Why Austin? thats where Samsung is located. So it shows that NK is trying to hurt SK financially because the sanctions are working.

 

[Abraham Gubler]

Did anyone in this thread stop to think why the North Koreans are doing all this for THEIR reasons? It has nothing to do with war with the South or the USA or the UN embargo but everything to do with Kim III cementing his place as another Kim Il Sung. What makes this round so much different to his father’s similar efforts is that this is the first time there has been a change of leadership since the North had widespread access to satellite TV. So part of the propaganda effort has been directed outsides so the Koreans in the north get the message via the secondary sources of South Korean and western TV media. Who are all obliging the party line to the letter.

The ideology of North Korea is an imperialist, racist, emperor worship system copied from WWII Imperial Japan. The basic message that every North Korea is raised on is that they are the most racially pure people in the world and this imbibes them with an unprecedented childlike innocence. The only way their innocent race can be protected from the evils of every other human is through the unique brilliance and military astuteness of Kim Il Sung and his descendants.

For Kim Jong-Un to secure his leadership position he needs to demonstrate this unique ability to defend the North Koreas from the evils of corrupted South Korea and the USA. To do that he needs a crisis which is what we have here. There is no way they want to actually go to war until circumstances like an American force withdrawal and South Korea economic collapse will mean they can win.

 

[chuck4]

The news say the US just sent f-22s to south Korea. This is interesting because the north Koreans aren't actually in danger of gaining air superiority for a second anywhere even if the f-22s stayed in Kansas. A more effective way to make north Korea reflect harder is to deploy f-15e to south Korea to bomb their land forces.


So the f-22s are probably there to impress the Chinese.

 

[chuck4]

Did anyone in this thread stop to think why the North Koreans are doing all this for THEIR reasons? It has nothing to do with war with the South or the USA or the UN embargo but everything to do with Kim III cementing his place as another Kim Il Sung. What makes this round so much different to his father’s similar efforts is that this is the first time there has been a change of leadership since the North had widespread access to satellite TV. So part of the propaganda effort has been directed outsides so the Koreans in the north get the message via the secondary sources of South Korean and western TV media. Who are all obliging the party line to the letter.

The ideology of North Korea is an imperialist, racist, emperor worship system copied from WWII Imperial Japan. The basic message that every North Korea is raised on is that they are the most racially pure people in the world and this imbibes them with an unprecedented childlike innocence. The only way their innocent race can be protected from the evils of every other human is through the unique brilliance and military astuteness of Kim Il Sung and his descendants.

For Kim Jong-Un to secure his leadership position he needs to demonstrate this unique ability to defend the North Koreas from the evils of corrupted South Korea and the USA. To do that he needs a crisis which is what we have here. There is no way they want to actually go to war until circumstances like an American force withdrawal and South Korea economic collapse will mean they can win.

I have no doubt north Korea is doing this for its own reason. I also have no doubt Kim has no intention of committing suicide by actually launching an all out attack. However there remains the possibility of brinksmanship crossing some as yet unforeseen or not uniformly recognized threshold, and explode into large scale armed conflict. It's not all together clear that, once large scale armed conflict is initiated by accident, it really wouldn't then go on to develope into all out war. I for one was surprised when Kim's father sent a torpedo into a ROK warship and judged that to be below threshold for initiation of a regime ending all out war.. As it turned out, it was below the threshold, but I would not have bet on it ahead of time. I am not clear that the full range of younger Kim's notion of acceptable behavior really does not overlap with ROK's range of "we rather fight than take this".

 

[Grey Havoc]

Some of the equipment that NK might use in another 'incident' or at the start of something bigger:

http://covertshores.blogspot.ie/2010/06/north-korean-small-submarines-file.html
http://covertshores.blogspot.ie/2010/06/north-korean-semi-submersible-craft.html

 

[Abraham Gubler]

However there remains the possibility of brinksmanship crossing some as yet unforeseen or not uniformly recognized threshold, and explode into large scale armed conflict. It's not all together clear that, once large scale armed conflict is initiated by accident, it really wouldn't then go on to develope into all out war. I for one was surprised when Kim's father sent a torpedo into a ROK warship and judged that to be below threshold for initiation of a regime ending all out war.. As it turned out, it was below the threshold, but I would not have bet on it ahead of time. I am not clear that the full range of younger Kim's notion of acceptable behavior really does not overlap with ROK's range of "we rather fight than take this".

Well they haven’t fired anything yet which makes this all pretty tame by Korean standards. But in recent years the North has moved their ‘incidents’ from the DMZ and trying to infiltrate the South to contesting the Northern Limit Line on the western littoral area. While not pleasant for the islanders and the RoK Navy it has the significant benefit of making any violent escalation or accident removed from the greater majority of military forces. Anyway the North has done all sorts of crazy things like launching direct attacks by a SF platoon on the President of the South and it never started a general war. Frequency of television reporting may be emotive but it does not mean things are getting out of hand.

 

[Grey Havoc]

Perhaps North Korea intends to try for a quick kick at Japan's shins?

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/asia/korean_peninsula/AJ201304010077

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

The news say the US just sent f-22s to south Korea. This is interesting because the north Koreans aren't actually in danger of gaining air superiority for a second anywhere even if the f-22s stayed in Kansas. A more effective way to make north Korea reflect harder is to deploy f-15e to south Korea to bomb their land forces.


So the f-22s are probably there to impress the Chinese.

F-22s can carry bombs too.

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

Exactly. Are you really interested in setting up to do business in S Korea if N Korea is constantly threatening to rain nuclear hell down and turn S Korea into a red hot molten sea of fire? even if the threats are hollow, it gives cause for concern to business.

It doesn't seem to slow anyone down.

 

[chuck4]

The news say the US just sent f-22s to south Korea. This is interesting because the north Koreans aren't actually in danger of gaining air superiority for a second anywhere even if the f-22s stayed in Kansas. A more effective way to make north Korea reflect harder is to deploy f-15e to south Korea to bomb their land forces.


So the f-22s are probably there to impress the Chinese.

F-22s can carry bombs too.

It would be silly to risk it in that role, since any attrition amongst the F-22 fleet incurred doing a job other planes can do at least as well has almost no chance of being made good for the next 15-20 years. So don't use the F-22 to do any job another less valuable plane can do almost as well or better.

 

[chuck4]

Exactly. Are you really interested in setting up to do business in S Korea if N Korea is constantly threatening to rain nuclear hell down and turn S Korea into a red hot molten sea of fire? even if the threats are hollow, it gives cause for concern to business.

It doesn't seem to slow anyone down.

How would you know? If you have money to invest and are considering foreign direct investment in South Korea, whether your return on investment might be crimped by a war is definitely something you must consider.

 

[kcran567]

The news say the US just sent f-22s to south Korea. This is interesting because the north Koreans aren't actually in danger of gaining air superiority for a second anywhere even if the f-22s stayed in Kansas. A more effective way to make north Korea reflect harder is to deploy f-15e to south Korea to bomb their land forces.


So the f-22s are probably there to impress the Chinese.

F-22s can carry bombs too.

It would be silly to risk it in that role, since any attrition amongst the F-22 fleet incurred doing a job other planes can do at least as well has almost no chance of being made good for the next 15-20 years. So don't use the F-22 to do any job another less valuable plane can do almost as well or better.

This is why i've alway been a fan of numbers rather that the gold plated f-22's/35s. Are the ultra expensive f-22s going to be useful on the Korean Peninsula in such limited numbers available?

 

[Abraham Gubler]

How would you know? If you have money to invest and are considering foreign direct investment in South Korea, whether your return on investment might be crimped by a war is definitely something you must consider.

Yet still:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/south-korea/gdp-growth

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

The news say the US just sent f-22s to south Korea. This is interesting because the north Koreans aren't actually in danger of gaining air superiority for a second anywhere even if the f-22s stayed in Kansas. A more effective way to make north Korea reflect harder is to deploy f-15e to south Korea to bomb their land forces.


So the f-22s are probably there to impress the Chinese.

F-22s can carry bombs too.

It would be silly to risk it in that role, since any attrition amongst the F-22 fleet incurred doing a job other planes can do at least as well has almost no chance of being made good for the next 15-20 years. So don't use the F-22 to do any job another less valuable plane can do almost as well or better.

We also just sent B-2s which cost much more than many and are much fewer in numbers F-22s... when we could have sent B-52s.

 

[chuck4]

The news say the US just sent f-22s to south Korea. This is interesting because the north Koreans aren't actually in danger of gaining air superiority for a second anywhere even if the f-22s stayed in Kansas. A more effective way to make north Korea reflect harder is to deploy f-15e to south Korea to bomb their land forces.


So the f-22s are probably there to impress the Chinese.

F-22s can carry bombs too.

It would be silly to risk it in that role, since any attrition amongst the F-22 fleet incurred doing a job other planes can do at least as well has almost no chance of being made good for the next 15-20 years. So don't use the F-22 to do any job another less valuable plane can do almost as well or better.

We also just sent B-2s which cost much more than many and are much fewer in numbers F-22s... when we could have sent B-52s.

We did send B-52s. Also, B-2, B-1 and B-52 can attack with stand off weapons. F-22 can't.

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

The news say the US just sent f-22s to south Korea. This is interesting because the north Koreans aren't actually in danger of gaining air superiority for a second anywhere even if the f-22s stayed in Kansas. A more effective way to make north Korea reflect harder is to deploy f-15e to south Korea to bomb their land forces.


So the f-22s are probably there to impress the Chinese.

F-22s can carry bombs too.

It would be silly to risk it in that role, since any attrition amongst the F-22 fleet incurred doing a job other planes can do at least as well has almost no chance of being made good for the next 15-20 years. So don't use the F-22 to do any job another less valuable plane can do almost as well or better.

This is why i've alway been a fan of numbers rather that the gold plated f-22's/35s. Are the ultra expensive f-22s going to be useful on the Korean Peninsula in such limited numbers available?

When you go for quantity over quality its not the airplanes that are gold plated, its the logistics that are gold plated.

We don't need to send a whole lot of F-22s to make a difference. Thats why you buy gold plated airplanes.

 

[2IDSGT]

North Korea blocks S Korea from joint zone
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2013/04/20134304954907439.html

 

[kcran567]

The news say the US just sent f-22s to south Korea. This is interesting because the north Koreans aren't actually in danger of gaining air superiority for a second anywhere even if the f-22s stayed in Kansas. A more effective way to make north Korea reflect harder is to deploy f-15e to south Korea to bomb their land forces.


So the f-22s are probably there to impress the Chinese.

F-22s can carry bombs too.

It would be silly to risk it in that role, since any attrition amongst the F-22 fleet incurred doing a job other planes can do at least as well has almost no chance of being made good for the next 15-20 years. So don't use the F-22 to do any job another less valuable plane can do almost as well or better.

This is why i've alway been a fan of numbers rather that the gold plated f-22's/35s. Are the ultra expensive f-22s going to be useful on the Korean Peninsula in such limited numbers available?

When you go for quantity over quality its not the airplanes that are gold plated, its the logistics that are gold plated.

We don't need to send a whole lot of F-22s to make a difference. Thats why you buy gold plated airplanes.

I get you're point.But even if the Raptor has a 100-1 kill ratio, 100 or more strike planes from NK some of which might have a tactical nuke, are the limited numbers of Raptors effective? There are so many targets that can be engaged and taken down. Any smart enemy would use numbers vs quality or a hi/lo mix. If N Korea has any good strike planning that is.

 

[GTX]

So according to Wikipedia (yeah, I know... ), Nth Korea has the following:

• Fighter aircraft: 484

• Strike aircraft: 194

• Trainer aircraft: 357

(I include the trainers, even though the majority are Nanchang CJ-6s (hardly a strike aircraft) since you never know).

The best of these are 35 MiG-29s, 56 MiG-23s, 150+ MiG-21s, 32 Su-25s and 18 Su-7s. Hardly a force to be worried about. What's more even if the key fighters such as F-22s, F-15s and F-16s don't mop them up there are also the extensive SAM forces. What's more you would also see allied forces involved plus carrier forces all supported by extensive AWACS and related.

Again, hardly something to be worried about...unless one is concerned about pilots/missile operators getting RSI from so many kills. ;D

That said though, I am still in the camp that believe this is all bluster from Nth Korea: Look at me, Look at me! I'm important... ;D

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

I get you're point.But even if the Raptor has a 100-1 kill ratio, 100 or more strike planes from NK some of which might have a tactical nuke, are the limited numbers of Raptors effective?

as GTX pointed out, its not just Raptors.

Any smart enemy would use numbers vs quality or a hi/lo mix. If N Korea has any good strike planning that is.

North Korea doesn't have numbers or quality. but even if we aren't talking about North Korea we are seeing large numbers of cheap aircraft get annihilated elsewhere (the mid east is a great example), and I don't use that word lightly, but yes annihilated, when facing superior yet fewer aircraft. Its not even an even contest. attrition warfare works when you have lots to give and are willing to sacrifice in order to hurt an enemy that has less and triumph in the end, but when you deliberately engage in attrition warfare and get unfavorable rates, thats called dying and losing. and when I say unfavorable rates, I mean the F-15 which has around 130 kills to zero. Its only attrition when the other guy is dying too! Even the soviets started to build more capable jets Flanker/Fulcrum when the sheer inferiority of their previous mass produced warplanes became apparent.

I just hope North Korea's version of a human wave attack is a good one, because they will only get to do it once. If NK expends its entire air force to get a tactical nuke off that's not attrition, its just suicide.

 

[2IDSGT]

I am still in the camp that believe this is all bluster from Nth Korea: Look at me, Look at me! I'm important... ;D

Of course it's just bluster, but the kid is painting himself into a corner where failing to do something major will result in a serious loss of face. At that point, his options will be: (1. Go to war and lose the throne; (2. Not go to war and lose the throne.

China (whatever their official pronouncements) is doubtless thrilled by this turn of events as they are almost certain to come out ahead no matter what happens. Any replacement for Un in a palace coup is unlikely to be western-friendly, probably resulting in a more-compliant satellite; and China stands to benefit from any nuclear event in the free world, as per their long-term policy of proliferation.

 

[Grey Havoc]

Something is on the cards.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2013/04/20134304954907439.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9968191/North-Korea-blocks-entry-to-Kaesong-industrial-zone.html

 

[GTX]

Something is on the cards.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2013/04/20134304954907439.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9968191/North-Korea-blocks-entry-to-Kaesong-industrial-zone.html

Not necessarily. Just more of the soap opera

 

[Grey Havoc]

I hope you're right.

On another note: http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/04/01/17552762-the-fortress-island-fixed-in-north-koreas-sights