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bobbymike

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http://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/372301-trump-nuclear-posture-sets-forth-reasoned-steps-to-ensure

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/02/06/trumps-plan-nuclear-weapons-makes-sense-ohanlon-column/305390002/

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/02/07/continuity_and_change_in_us_nuclear_policy_113025.html
 

totoro

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sferrin said:
"mid-course missile interception "

This is what GBI is. All the rest are terminal phase.
But one should not necessarily confuse the US use of the term "mid course" with what was written for the Chinese test. If one intercepts a medium range ballistic missile at its mid-course, that does not mean it can do the same with an ICBM. Yet it is still, technically speaking, a mid course interception. Frankly, we do not know what exactly went on in this test. But it is possible one of the many tests for HQ19 included a try at intercepting a MRBM at its mid course stage, as opposed to interceptions at other stages.

It'd be hard for china to actually test a mid course interception against ICBM, and such launches would have different no fly zones and would be much more noticable.
 

bobbymike

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https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/02/08/the_new_us_nuclear_posture_review_return_to_realism_113035.html
 

bobbymike

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https://www.themaven.net/warriormaven/future-weapons/mattis-nuclear-armed-f-35-can-change-deterrence-equation-POwPqD8BP0aOjNLyh82WLA
 

Triton

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"Putin ally warns of arms race as Russia considers response to U.S. nuclear stance"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/putin-ally-warns-of-arms-race-as-russia-considers-response-to-us-nuclear-stance/2018/02/10/23dd3cf2-0cf2-11e8-baf5-e629fc1cd21e_story.html?utm_term=.9c3bb174a079
 

bobbymike

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http://www.lamonitor.com/content/federal-budget-proposal-commits-funds-plutonium-pit-program
 

bobbymike

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https://www.exchangemonitor.com/low-yield-warhead-details-due-19-budget-big-nnsa-infrastructure-plans-will-wait-year/
 

bobbymike

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https://warontherocks.com/2018/02/discrimination-details-matter-clarifying-argument-low-yield-nuclear-warheads/
 

bobbymike

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https://www.defense.gov/Videos/videoid/585184/

National Defense University Center for the Study off Weapons of Mass Destruction NPR discussion.
 

bobbymike

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https://warontherocks.com/2018/02/must-mean-say-making-sense-nuclear-posture-review/
 

bobbymike

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https://www.defensenews.com/smr/munich-security-forum/2018/02/17/escalate-to-de-escalate-us-and-russia-trade-jabs-on-nuclear-arms-use/

https://www.cna.org/news/podcast
 

Flyaway

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Russia releases video of its modernized ballistic missile defense system

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2018/02/20/russia-releases-video-of-its-modernized-ballistic-missile-defense-system/

https://youtu.be/1sfFp0BqPps
 

sferrin

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I wonder what the difference between that and a standard Gazelle is.
 

bobbymike

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https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/02/20/the_nuclear_posture_review__fiction_and_fact_113080.html

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/02/20/department_of_energy_risking_nuclear_deterrence_and_national_security_113082.html

https://www.c-span.org/video/?441268-1/policy-forum-focuses-trump-administrations-nuclear-policy
 

bobbymike

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https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nuclear-triad/2018/02/21/out-of-moscow-washington-got-the-basics-of-russian-nuclear-strategy-all-wrong/

https://www.heritage.org/missile-defense/commentary/trumps-plan-protect-americas-nuclear-capabilities

Robust Modernization and Sustainment Programs

The 2018 NPR supports a robust modernization program for nuclear delivery systems: bombers, strategic submarines, and intercontinental-range ballistic missiles. These systems, deployed in the 1980s or earlier, provide a mix of attributes like survivability, flexibility, and responsiveness that strengthen deterrence and complicate adversaries’ efforts to attack the U.S. homeland and allies.
 

bobbymike

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https://thebulletin.org/grand-picture-verifying-nuclear-disarmament-what-needs-be-done11525

With today’s nuclear weapon modernization efforts and plans, as well as recent dangerous changes in nuclear policy, in particular the United States’ Nuclear Posture Review, the goal of a world without nuclear weapons—global zero—seems very far away. Given this peculiar situation, however, efforts to prepare for nuclear disarmament must be redoubled. This includes developing new verification approaches for a future in which sanity prevails and the numbers of nuclear weapons in the world are greatly reduced.
 

bobbymike

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https://www.defensenews.com/space/2018/02/26/nonstrategic-nukes-what-are-they-good-for/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Socialflow

WASHINGTON ― The announcement of two new low-yield nuclear weapons programs in the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review has led to a discussion about the utility of so-called nonstrategic, or tactical, nuclear weapons.

The importance of nonstrategic assets for the U.S. and Russia was examined in detail in a Congressional Research Service report published Feb. 13.

The distinction between a strategic and nonstrategic weapon used to be defined by mission set, observable capabilities and whether the system is covered by existing strategic arms control agreements. Emerging systems, however, strain traditional identification practices, making the distinction somewhat obsolete.
https://breakingdefense.com/2018/02/no-trump-nuke-strategy-doesnt-doom-planet-usd-policy/

HERITAGE FOUNDATION: Just calm down and read the document. That, in essence, is the administration’s response to critics who call its new nuclear strategy irresponsible and dangerous. In fact, deputy undersecretary for policy David Trachtenberg said over and over here this morning, the Nuclear Posture Review is fundamentally conservative (with a small “c”). The 2018 NPR, he said,

is based on mainstream consensus about deterrence;
adapts deterrence to new threats, especially Russia;
was developed in concert with our allies;
adds only modest “supplements” to Obama’s buildup plans, namely two new low-yield nuclear weapons;
and will require sustained bipartisan support to implement.
 

bobbymike

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DOD: Nuclear Posture Review is a Response to a New Threat Environment

The Pentagon’s Nuclear Posture Review addresses a “much more challenging nuclear threat” that has emerged in recent years and is aimed at tailoring responses to specific emerging threats that have arrived, a senior Pentagon official said Monday. Even as the review calls for more capabilities, such as a low-yield submarine launched missile, and more response options for non-nuclear threats, such as large-scale cyber attacks, David Trachtenberg, the deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, pushed back harshly on reporting and analysis that claims the review is a new arms race or that it changes the US calculus in using nukes. The NPR “lays out the path to ensure that the United States’ nuclear deterrent is modern, robust, flexible, resilient, ready, and appropriately tailored to deter 21st century threats and reassure allies,” Trachtenberg said Monday at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C. The 2010 Nuclear Posture Review had claimed that if the US “led by example” in reducing its nuclear stockpile and pushed for treaty certification, the rest of the world would follow. However, “the threat environment moved in contrary and much more challenging directions,” such as Russia modernizing its stockpile and deploying an intermediate-range missile, Trachtenberg said. “These new threat realities drove the need to adjust nuclear posture,” he said. —Brian Everstine
 

bobbymike

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Heritage Foundation - DUSD Trachtenberg on the NPR

https://www.heritage.org/missile-defense/event/nuclear-posture-review-continuities-and-changes
 

Flyaway

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Vladimir Putin threatens US arms race with new missiles announcement

Russian president says Moscow has developed new line of nuclear-capable weapons that can breach US defences
Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia had developed and was testing a new line of strategic, nuclear-capable weapons that would be able to outmanoeuvre US antiballistic missile defences, suggesting a new arms race between Moscow and the west.

Speaking in a nationally televised address to Russia’s political elite, the president showed both video and animation of Russian ICBMs, cruise missiles, and other weapons that he said Russia had developed as a result of the US pulling out of the 1972 antiballistic missile treaty signed with the Soviet Union.

“You didn’t listen to our country then,” Putin said during the speech, where he said that some of the weapons were already being tested. “Listen to us now.”

The remarks came during a state of the union speech heavy on economic promises for the Russian people and sabre-rattling against the US in a presentation widely viewed as Putin’s first stump speech for Russian elections, set for 18 March. He is expected to win a fourth term as president.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/01/vladimir-putin-threatens-arms-race-with-new-missiles-announcement
 

sferrin

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This is interesting (from his speech):

"Russia has also began experimental use of a new small air-launched missile system called Kinzhal, or Dagger, that flies at 10 times the speed of sound with an unpredictable trajectory towards its target, Putin said.

This allows it to "overcome all existing and, I think, prospective air and missile defence systems," Putin said."
 

bobbymike

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sferrin said:
This is interesting (from his speech):

"Russia has also began experimental use of a new small air-launched missile system called Kinzhal, or Dagger, that flies at 10 times the speed of sound with an unpredictable trajectory towards its target, Putin said.

This allows it to "overcome all existing and, I think, prospective air and missile defence systems," Putin said."
No worries ::)

STRATCOM: US Nuclear Deterrent Nearly “Zero Percent” Modernized

The US military’s nuclear deterrent is almost “zero percent” modernized, while Russia, who poses the most significant threat to the country, has massively modernized its nuclear infrastructure and weapons over the course of the past 20 years, the head of US Strategic Command said Wednesday. STRATCOM Commander USAF Gen. John Hyten, speaking Wednesday at an Association of the US Army event in Arlington, Va., said the Pentagon’s recently released Nuclear Posture Review shows that nuclear deterrence is the top priority for the department, but that missile defense and the nation’s diplomats are also important in deterring threats. While Russia is the most “significant” threat, and North Korea is the most uncertain foe, China is leading the world in the speed at which it is developing. This includes China’s advances in space and hypersonics. While China is still behind the US in capacity, “holy cow they are moving fast,” Hyten said. The new NPR, which outlines modernization requirements and new capabilities to tailor deterrence to different threats, will help the US “deal with the pace of the threat,” he said. —Brian Everstine
 

fredymac

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bobbymike said:
No worries ::)

STRATCOM: US Nuclear Deterrent Nearly “Zero Percent” Modernized
The rationalizing is painful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8OOp5_G-R4
 

markfward

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English transcript of Putin's speech:

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56957
 

Flyaway

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What Putin’s scary-sounding nuclear weapons announcement really means

https://www.vox.com/world/2018/3/1/17066598/putin-speech-missile-nuclear-election
 

bobbymike

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https://www.buzzfeed.com/danvergano/nuclear-asteroid-deflection-nasa?utm_term=.aw9q7gLvg#.eqnNkBpLB

The asteroid Bennu, a boulder the size of a village, is circling the sun at 63,000 mph, now a comfortable 54 million miles from Earth.

But on Sept. 21, 2135, there is a 1 in 2,700 chance that it will hit us. What would we do?

Government scientists now have an official plan, just in case: They’ve designed a spacecraft to hit any large oncoming asteroids with a nuclear explosion.

The Hypervelocity Asteroid Mitigation Mission for Emergency Response (HAMMER) spacecraft — a collaboration between the National Nuclear Security Administration, NASA, and two Energy Department weapons labs — would either steer its 8.8-ton bulk (called an “impactor”) into a small asteroid, or carry a nuclear device to deflect a big one.

“If the asteroid is small enough, and we detect it early enough, we can do it with the impactor,” physicist David Dearborn of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory told BuzzFeed News. “The impactor is not as flexible as the nuclear option when we really want to change the speed of the body in a hurry.”
 

bobbymike

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https://breakingdefense.com/2018/03/rep-rogers-hill-must-fund-sea-launched-nuclear-cruise-missile-lower-yield-warhead/
 

bobbymike

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https://warontherocks.com/2018/03/why-america-must-modernize-its-nuclear-forces/

“We took a procurement holiday for almost 30 years and stopped modernizing our force.” That’s what Gen. Garret Harencak, the former Air Force assistant chief of staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Matters, told one of my nuclear seminars in 2013.

America’s nuclear force is aging: U.S. land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are now 47 years old, the B-52 strategic bomber is approaching 50 years, and the submarines are approaching 40 years — the longest any U.S. submarine has ever been at sea.

The new Nuclear Posture Review is a restrained and well-thought out roadmap for the future development and modernization of U.S. nuclear forces as well as a strategy for maintaining and improving America’s deterrent capability.
 

bobbymike

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http://www.airforcemag.com/MagazineArchive/Pages/2018/April%202018/Nuclear-Rohrshach-Test.aspx?utm_source=&utm_medium=&utm_campaign=

“We must modernize and rebuild our nuclear arsenal, hopefully never having to use it, but making it so strong and powerful that it will deter any acts of aggression,” President Donald Trump asserted in his February 2018 State of the Union address.

“Perhaps someday in the future there will be a magical moment when the countries of the world will get together to eliminate their nuclear weapons,” he continued. “Unfortunately, we are not there yet.”
https://warontherocks.com/2018/03/wotr-podcast-a-big-debate-about-a-little-nuke/
 

bobbymike

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http://permalink.lanl.gov/object/tr?what=info:lanl-repo/lareport/LA-UR-18-20926

Weapons Engineering and Experiments (ADW) Capability Overview M, J, Q
and W Divisions February 7, 2018
 

bobbymike

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https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nuclear-triad/2018/03/19/dods-cost-of-low-yield-nuclear-warhead-for-submarines-set-at-485-million/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Socialflow

“All this would require us to reserve the last X number, tens of warheads, and instead of doing a full [life extension], do the primary only. It doesn’t require additional capacity,” Soofer said of developing the capability. On the Navy side, the service would “just take that warhead and make sure they can qualify” an SLBM on a sub.

The Pentagon has argued that developing low-yield nuclear weapons is needed to counter threats from China and particularly from Russia, which has invested significantly in its own low-yield weapons in what U.S. officials believe is part of its “escalate to deescalate” strategy. Under that concept, Russia would be willing to use a small nuclear weapon, assuming NATO allies — when faced with using a strategic nuclear weapon or not responding at all — will back down in a conflict.
 

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U.S. Says Russia Increasing Deployment of 'Banned' Cruise Missile

"WASHINGTON --- The commander of U.S. nuclear forces says that Russia has increased its deployment of cruise missiles that Washington asserts are in violation of a key Cold War arms-control treaty, a signal that Moscow continues to be undeterred by U.S. warnings.

The comments on March 20 by General John Hyten come with U.S. officials moving more aggressively to confront Moscow and the suspect ground-launched cruise missile, which Washington first publicly identified four years ago as being in violation of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty.

Since being accused in 2014 of developing the missile, Russia has repeatedly denied the U.S. assertions and claimed that Washington had essentially quit the Soviet-era arms-control pact already. Last year, a top U.S. military official said Moscow had begun deploying the missile."

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/191737/u.s.-says-russia-increases-deployment-of-more-%27banned%27-cruise-missile.html
 

bobbymike

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https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nuclear-triad/2018/03/20/nuclear-warhead-manager-seeks-fy19-funding-for-new-nuke-designs/

WASHINGTON — The agency in charge of managing America’s nuclear warheads is in discussions with the Office of Management and Budget about getting funding to start work on two new nuclear capabilities sought by the Trump administration.

The National Nuclear Security Administration, a semiautonomous agency within the Department of Energy, is a key player as the government seeks to create both a low-yield warhead for its submarine-launched ballistic missile and a new sea-launched, nuclear-capable cruise missile.

But while the Pentagon has identified those two systems as vital to national interests, and has set aside $22.6 million in fiscal 2019 for a low-yield ballistic warhead, the NNSA’s budget request for FY19 doesn’t contain any funds to support that work.

“We are leaning as far forward as we possibly can, working with OMB and [the Department of Defense]” on the question of FY19 funds, said Lisa Gordon-Haggerty, the NNSA head, during congressional testimony Tuesday.
https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nuclear-arsenal/2018/03/20/stratcom-head-to-deter-russia-us-needs-new-low-yield-nukes/

WASHINGTON — During a congressional hearing, the head of U.S. Strategic Command defended the Trump administration’s view that the United States will need new low-yield nuclear weapons to help deter Russia.

The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review recommends building two new “low-yield” nuclear weapons for the U.S. Navy: a low-yield warhead for existing submarine-launched ballistic missiles, or SLBM, and a nuclear-capable cruise missile that could be used by subs.

Gen. John Hyten, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday that he “strongly agrees” the Pentagon should procure those weapons.

“That capability is a deterrence weapon to respond to the threat that Russia in particular is portraying,” he said. “[Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin announced as far back as April of 2000 that the Russian doctrine will be to use a low-yield nuclear weapon on the battlefield in case of a conventional overmatch with an adversary.”
 

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https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2018/03/20/Lockheed-awarded-contract-for-Trident-II-production-support/4241521546755/

March 20 (UPI) -- Lockheed Martin has been awarded a contract for production and support of the Trident II D5, a submarine-launched ballistic missile.

The deal, announced Monday by the Department of Defense, is valued at more than $522.3 million under the terms of a fixed-price-incentive, cost-plus-incentive-fee, and cost-plus-fixed-fee contract, which is a modification to a previous award by the U.S. Navy.
 

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https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/fiscal-year-2019-budget-request-nuclear-forces-and-atomic-energy-defense-activities
 

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https://www.stimson.org/sites/default/files/file-attachments/Nuclear-NextGen-FINAL-WEB3.pdf

Balance Between Nuclear Deterrence and Disarmament Japanese View
 

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http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/general-us-needs-new-generation-nuclear-weapons-counter-25019

https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nuclear-arsenal/2018/03/20/stratcom-head-to-deter-russia-us-needs-new-low-yield-nukes/

“We have to devote considerable effort to war gaming this problem and ensure that existing systems, both conventional and nuclear, cannot meet this doctrinal challenge of ‘escalate-to-deescalate.’ ”

Reed later asked why the Defense Department simply couldn’t use lower-yield, air-launched weapons such as the Long Range Standoff Weapon, a cruise missile currently under development that will be able to be outfitted with either a nuclear or conventional warhead.

The reason, Hyten said, is that the United States needs a greater amount of variety in the low-yield weapons available in the nuclear arsenal.
 

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http://www.newsweek.com/us-nukes-will-be-useless-without-more-plutonium-military-warns-857441

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-us-military-wants-more-plutonium-triggers-for-nuclear-warheads/2018/03/22/b5d1516c-2d58-11e8-911f-ca7f68bff0fc_story.html?utm_term=.7c86238a1fe2

The U.S. military is concerned that the government isn’t moving quickly enough to ramp up American production of the plutonium cores that trigger nuclear warheads, as the Trump administration proceeds with a $1 trillion overhaul of the nation’s nuclear force.

Energy Secretary Rick Perry, the Cabinet official who oversees the nation’s nuclear labs, promised in testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday that he would meet the Pentagon’s demands, even though the only lab capable of producing the triggers hasn’t made one suitable for a nuclear weapon in years.

“It is important for us to be able to send a clear message that we can get it done, we can get it done on a timely basis and get it done in a way that taxpayers respect is thoughtful about their concerns,” Perry said in a rare appearance by the nation’s top energy official at the Senate body overseeing the military.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1473476/nuclear-enterprise-as-important-as-ever-dod-officials-tell-congress/
 

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http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2018/03/26/us-navys-virgina-attack-submarines-will-now-fire-nuclear-weapons-marking-dramatic-shift.html

The U.S. Navy is going to have its Virginia-class attack submarines be armed with nuclear warheads, marking a history shift in how the submarines are used.

“While Virginia-class submarines can use conventional deterrence to keep adversaries in check, a sub-launched cruise missile with a nuclear warhead would be incorporated into Virginias and give national command authority additional escalation control,” Rear Adm. John Tammen, Director, Undersea Warfare Division, told Congress.

The new weapon, part of the Trump administration's recent Nuclear Posture Review, is likely to bring a new element to the Pentagon’s current nuclear weapons deterrence posture. Currently, only the Ohio class and the emerging Columbia-class are capable of firing nuclear weapons.
 

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https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2018/03/27/us-nuclear-stockpile-decreasing-in-size-but-not-capability/

WASHINGTON — The number of nuclear warheads kept in U.S. stockpiles decreased by nearly 200 since the end of the Obama administration, according to information released by the Defense Department in response to a Freedom of Information Act request from the Federation of American Scientists. This reduction brings the total number of warheads down to 3,822 as of September 2017.

While this downsizing may seem to contradict the Trump administration’s position on U.S. nuclear posture, these reductions reflect “a longer trend of the Pentagon working to reduce excess numbers of warheads while upgrading the remaining weapons,” according to Hans Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at FAS.
 
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