Multi-Object Kill Vehicle (MOKV)

[fredymac]

More like the types and number of decoys being used in the test. As mentioned in the STSS videos above, US observation assets are usually arranged to provide detailed analysis of the performance of the kill vehicle but they can also observe the effect and performance of the decoys. This would be similar to announcing tests of fighter radars and conducting the tests where frequency, waveforms, jamming countermeasures, etc can be observed by anyone.

 

[GTX]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lah98p1PbgQ

 

[Scott Kenny]

So then you don't believe deterrence works. That's twice you've said that now.

Deterrence works against rational actors.

Not all actors are rational. At the very least, Russia and China seem to believe in the concept of "escalate to de-escalate," translation "we're going to baby nuke you to get your attention before we go to a full strike."

A MOKV would give a protection against escalate to de-escalate, which means the attacker has to either commit to a full exchange or not shoot at all.

 

[whatismoo]

Deterrence works against rational actors.

Not all actors are rational. At the very least, Russia and China seem to believe in the concept of "escalate to de-escalate," translation "we're going to baby nuke you to get your attention before we go to a full strike."

A MOKV would give a protection against escalate to de-escalate, which means the attacker has to either commit to a full exchange or not shoot at all.

Outside of equatorial guinea in the 80s most actors are internally rational. Remember that rationality is a description of a process, not a statement of conformity with our worldview and starting axioms / values. Escalate to deescalate isn't really anything new, it's just re-introducing the principles from non-strategic nuclear escalation management from the 70s/80s. Using tailored strikes or threats of use to shape a crisis or control / manage escalation within a conflict or exchange has been a core principle of nuclear theory for the longest time. The best appraisal of Russian thinking that I've seen is from CNA's work which I've linked. As regards the Chinese, their theory tends not to be as mature (at least in public) regarding nuclear use, and they also usually don't just copy the Soviets/Russians.

https://www.cna.org/reports/2020/04/DRM-2019-U-022455-1Rev.pdf

 

[Dilandu]

we're going to baby nuke you to get your attention before we go to a full strike."

What are you talking about? China have no-first-use polcy for decades. And Russian doctrine explictly reserve the use of nuclear weapon only as answer to nuclear or massive conventional attack that threatens the nation existence.

 

[Scott Kenny]

What are you talking about? China have no-first-use polcy for decades. And Russian doctrine explictly reserve the use of nuclear weapon only as answer to nuclear or massive conventional attack that threatens the nation existence.

While Russian doctrine may say that, the Russian president has been threatening nukes for the last 3 years.

 

[snne]

While Russian doctrine may say that, the Russian president has been threatening nukes for the last 3 years.

Putin's failure to back up his words with actions aside, wouldn't you do the same if your adversaries were (threatening to) give nuclear-capable missiles and routinely provide intel and targeting data to your enemy?

 

[yeetmahboi]

While Russian doctrine may say that, the Russian president has been threatening nukes for the last 3 years.

Which is a very real threat, of course.
The Russians invaded Ukraine. There's no reason to assume they would not step it up another notch had the West came through with their promises of long range strike weapons that could target key energy or decision making centres.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Putin's failure to back up his words with actions aside, wouldn't you do the same if your adversaries were (threatening to) give nuclear-capable missiles and routinely provide intel and targeting data to your enemy?

If your adversaries were distributing nukes or nuclear-capable missiles, yes.

Which nuclear-capable missiles have been given to Ukraine?