Major Japanese doctrinal shift : less manned, more unmanned and stand-off

[Maro.Kyo]

空自捜索機や陸自戦闘ヘリを廃止、無人機で代替へ…防衛予算効率化

【読売新聞】　政府は、航空自衛隊の救難捜索機や陸上自衛隊の戦闘ヘリコプターなどを廃止する方針を固めた。２０２３年度から５年間の防衛費が約４３兆円に大幅増となる中、無人機で代替するなどして、防衛装備品や部隊の「スクラップ・アンド・ビル

www.yomiuri.co.jp

Yomiuri Shinbun reported that there's a major shift of JSDF force mix incoming. This is following a major increase in defense spending by the Japanese.

In short, they will replace a major share of their manned aerial assets in favor of unmanned and stand-off assets. Firstly, JGSDF will axe the entirety of their attack and reconnaissance helo fleet, which currently comprises of AH-64DJ (12), AH-1S (47) and OH-1 (33) and replace them with UAVs and UCAVs. JMSDF will also reduce the number of P-1 MPA procurement (33 less) and accelerate the retirement of their SH-60K fleet (75) which has been procured since the early 2000s, also in favor in unmanned assets like the MQ-9B SeaGuardian and their newer SH-60L. SeaGuardian is currently operated by JCG and will be placed in trial operation within the JMSDF. Following major reduction of manned assets, the JASDF will retire their U-125A CSAR aircraft. Decision to retire U-125A also stems from JASDF's assessment that CSAR helos suffice to match potential CSAR demands during wartime. Apart from increased focus on UAVs, they will also procure more stand-off assets. These include both the air-breathing, long-range cruise missile assets, both air and surface launched, as well as ballistic and hypersonic assets currently in development.

Currently, there are 5 attack helo squadrons of the JGDSF: 2 on the North Japan (1 on Hokkaido and 1 on Northern Honshu), 2 on central Japan and 1 on West Japan (on Kyushu, armed with AH-64DJ). Historically, Japanese attack helo squadrons' task was to deter possible amphibious and airborne assault of the Soviets from the North East, but following the end of Cold War and more recently the war in Ukraine, the threat from the Russians have constantly and recently significantly reduced, which would have aided such decision.

As observed by the deployment of their handful of AH-64DJ squadrons in Kyushu, current JGSDF attack helo squadrons are also tasked with rapid deployment to the Nansei Islands of the South West alongside their Rapid Deployment Regiments in case there's an escalation with China. For such reason JGSDF was preparing the AH-X program to procure around 40 new attack helos to replace the AH-1S and the AH-64DJ. These helos were meant to operate both above land and sea and were required to have enhanced salinity resistance compared to their AH-64DJs, which were showing problems as a result of frequent coastal deployments and exposure to higher salinity. Following the latest doctrinal changes, the AH-X program is also believed to have been cancelled. This is in-line with current USMC doctrinal changes which focuses swifter and more effective operation in the SCS. It's safe to say that the JGSDF and their Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade, as well as land-based Rapid Deployment Regiments are faced with similar operational requirements and demands compared to the USMC in the future.

Overall I think it's a very decisive shift of doctrine in a right direction, though we'll need to wait for official confirmation as well as details regarding replacement programs.

 

[Grey Havoc]

Firstly, JGSDF will axe the entirety of their attack and reconnaissance helo fleet, which currently comprises of AH-64DJ (12), AH-1S (47) and OH-1 (33) and replace them with UAVs and UCAVs.

I suspect that will not work out well. At all. And aping the USMC's rush to destruction is likely to boomerang even worse on the JSDF as a whole, at the very least, I fear.

 

[Maro.Kyo]

I suspect that will not work out well. At all. And aping the USMC's rush to destruction is likely to boomerang even worse on the JSDF as a whole, at the very least, I fear.

At least the Japanese bases spread across the Nansei Isles, one of them being Okinawa, provides them stronger foothold than the US in SCS. Permanantly fielding UCAVs that have sufficient range, such as the Reaper or Avenger on their airbases in Nansei could be more advantageous than their current attack helo fleet that will only deploy alongside the the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade. On the flip side, without autonomous capabilities, controlling those UAVs in the same airspace might be a problem.

 

[starviking]

So the ARDB is going to have Ospreys, but no escorts? Putting this change on the “results” from the Ukraine War, when we don’t have definitive results, seems like a bureaucrat’s money-saving idea, rather than one based on sound doctrinal analysis. Of course, we DO know that the Russians have not only bad doctrine, but have ignored whatever doctrine they have.

Looking at it cynically, no attack helos means no allied requests for close support aid in any future conflict in the area. It also could save more cash, as why not get rid of the Osumi APDs if the support helos are gone? Surely the Ospreys can operate from the Okinawan main island?

The US125 seems to make a bit more sense, but with the P-1s being capped I wonder about the possibility of maritime surveillance being stretched.

 

[red admiral]

Are any other UAS mentioned apart from MQ-9? I can see that with Seaspray this gives a nice long range and persistent surveillance capability, but it only has light weapons.

Was quite a lot of the P-1 fleet ordered for above water rather than below water surveillance?

 

[Maro.Kyo]

So the ARDB is going to have Ospreys, but no escorts? Putting this change on the “results” from the Ukraine War, when we don’t have definitive results, seems like a bureaucrat’s money-saving idea, rather than one based on sound doctrinal analysis. Of course, we DO know that the Russians have not only bad doctrine, but have ignored whatever doctrine they have.

Yes, such criticism is also coming out of Japan, that such radical decision was too premature and overall, it seems like a way to save money so that thsy could build-up their non-existent long-range strike missile assets. All of their new long range missile programs, both cruise and ballistic, subsonic and hypersonic are named with "図書防衛用" prefix, which means "for Island defense". Here the "island" is Senkaku Islands, or in broader sense the entire Nansei Island region so one could see where this is going. They are planning to spend around $50 billion for it, so no wonder they need to cut some costs elsewhere, despite significant increase in defense spendings.

Looking at it cynically, no attack helos means no allied requests for close support aid in any future conflict in the area. It also could save more cash, as why not get rid of the Osumi APDs if the support helos are gone? Surely the Ospreys can operate from the Okinawan main island?

No attack helos but there will be UCAVs and we're already seeing how UCAVs are replacing some operational domain of attack helos. Terrain in the Nansei region means helos are limited in utilizing their greates strength, ie terrain masking. Osumi LPDs will still vital for not just their ARDB but also for deployment of heavier RDR equipments. This is especially true since the two Izumo class ships are now aircraft carriers and would need to retain operational readiness level as an aircraft carrier in the region.

 

[Maro.Kyo]

Are any other UAS mentioned apart from MQ-9? I can see that with Seaspray this gives a nice long range and persistent surveillance capability, but it only has light weapons.

For the attack helo replacement, it is rather up in the air, although there ain't much option other than the Reaper and Avenger. That's unless they develop their own UCAV, which I kinda doubt they will.

For the P-1 replacement, there are currently only two MPA UAVs and BAMS, being one of them, couldn't really fulfill the ASW role since it isn't equipped eith sonarbuoys. Of course it will be useful against Chinese SSKs when they snorkle but overall, SeaGuardian with ASW package seems like JMSDF's choice. Now the question is how they'll integrate the UAV controlling system to the P-1s. For one, they could procure the L3Harris CDL equipment which is already in use with the P-8A. The other option is to develop their own STANAG 4586 MUM-T equipment and to integrate into P-1. The former seems like a go-to choice, but in case the US refuses to integrate said equipment to foreign MPA, here P-1, they will have to proceed with the latter option.

Was quite a lot of the P-1 fleet ordered for above water rather than below water surveillance?

Both. P-3 and now P-1 are both vital part of JMSDF's ASW (alongside SH-60Ks) and ASuW (alongside F-2) operations. Though the question is if the new, long range Island Defense Anti Ship Missile based on Type 12 can be launched from F-2s. It seems like the F-2s will rather be tasked with ASM-3As while P-1 acts as a long-range air-launched missile platform alongside their F-15JSI which will operate JASSM.

 

[Hood]

Does anybody take ASW seriously anymore?
It's like the complete lack of active submarine warfare since 1945 (barring 1982 and lobbing Tomahawks into the Middle East) has led to serious complacency. The multiplicity of UUVs in the next 15-20 years could become a serious threat (China churns out SSKs, imagine how many UUV combat subs it could build for coastal defence?).
Also cutting the P-1 production run will surely increase unit costs too?

While the loss of a reconnaissance helicopter force is probably less serious, I would think that having gunships for amphibious landing support would be critical (the UK's offensive naval air component from HMS Ocean during Ellamy was AAC WAH-64s).
If the Apache's are rusting at sea (seems odd as I don't think the AAC have had trouble with their Westland-assembled examples) then I'd suggest replacing with a marinised helicopter. Wildcat would be a good replacement, toting a mass of ASMs (no Hellfire/Brimstone sadly though) and good for ASW too, though the SH-60L should have a reasonably good weapons payload too (including Hellfire).

 

[Maro.Kyo]

Does anybody take ASW seriously anymore?

JMSDF has taken ASW very seriously ever since the cold war. Just takr a look at their ASW aircraft fleet and doctrine for the past decades.

Also cutting the P-1 production run will surely increase unit costs too?

They've already acquired more than 40 P-1s and if the numbers given by Yomiuri are true, production will end soon. Overall procurement cost wouldn't change much because of it. The problem would be the total lifecycle cost, which has already been rising.

If the Apache's are rusting at sea (seems odd as I don't think the AAC have had trouble with their Westland-assembled examples) then I'd suggest replacing with a marinised helicopter. Wildcat would be a good replacement, toting a mass of ASMs (no Hellfire/Brimstone sadly though) and good for ASW too, though the SH-60L should have a reasonably good weapons payload too (including Hellfire).

WAH-64 had more extensive marinisation package than the AH-64DJ, which is why. This is also one of the reasons they were planning to scrap the AH-64DJ fleet all together in favor of AH-X. Both the Viper and Apache Guardian are marinized with same mil-std compliance and are way better than 64D in that regard. Though that is not to say that the Viper and Apache Guardian have same marinisation measures, since the viper went beyon what is required by the mil-std. The requirements of AH-X wouldn't have been met with Wildcats though, and using SH-60L for amphibious assault or the deterrence of it would cause some survivability issues. Also they'll already be busy doing ASW. Their interrim solution until UCAVs seems to be arming their utility helos, more to be specific their new UH-2 and Black Hawks.

 

[starviking]

I hope they pass on the attack helos to Taiwan - at least they could cause China problems at the other end of Okinawa.

 

[Maro.Kyo]

I hope they pass on the attack helos to Taiwan - at least they could cause China problems at the other end of Okinawa.

The problem is that those helo assets are not really in optimal shape rn. AH-64DJs as I've said have corrosion issues to the rotor shaft due to prolonged exposure to salinity. AH-1S are too old, and OH-1s have serious supply-chain issues due to disasterous program management, especially the procurement. Overall, all three of those helos are not suitable for continued operation.

 

[timmymagic]

The problem is that those helo assets are not really in optimal shape rn. AH-64DJs as I've said have corrosion issues to the rotor shaft due to prolonged exposure to salinity.

I'm guessing they were faced with substantial upgrade costs to the E variant as well as Boeing are stopping supporting the D variant in the near future as well.

OH-1s have serious supply-chain issues due to disasterous program management, especially the procurement.

They must have been one of the most expensive helos ever by unit cost. Am I right in saying that their utility must be low based on the limited numbers of weapons integrated? Or have more been added over time?

 

[Maro.Kyo]

I'm guessing they were faced with substantial upgrade costs to the E variant as well as Boeing are stopping supporting the D variant in the near future as well.

That is also part of the "reasons" I've mentioned above. There's a significant difference in avionics between the two variants that it's not economically sound to upgrade those handful of AH-64DJs, at all.

They must have been one of the most expensive helos ever by unit cost. Am I right in saying that their utility must be low based on the limited numbers of weapons integrated? Or have more been added over time?

Well, the most expensive helo must have been the AH-64DJs since the (again) disastrous procurement program led to a program cost of over ¥20 billion per unit, which was around $180 million before the crazy inflation and exchange rates we're experiencing this year.

OH-1 is, as the name suggests, a scout-observe helicopter, which was meant to replace their aging OH-6 fleet. The only armament was Type 91 manpads and it was supposed to be enough. It did fulfill its role as a OH rather well I'd say, and by that their utility doesn't really matter, since it wasn't meant to be multi purpose or do things it was not meant to.

Though, like I've said, a bad project management led to serious supply-chain issues and a premature end of production as a result. At the time the Japanese MoD was funding a utility helicopter program called the UH-X based on the OH-1 but the aforementioned issue, alongside a collusion case basically killed it. MoD was also considering a attack-reconnaissance helicopter based on OH-1 as a candidate of AH-X and I think there's a high chance that had the OH-1 program persist without those issues, a OH-1 based AH-X would have been chosen for commonality. Now we know they're all dead, and AH-X is scrapped all together in favor of drones. In that sense, utilization of OH-1 as a platform was abysmal at best. Also, I think the range of munitions the OH-1 would have been able to operate would have stayed limited, even in the case where an AH-X based on OH-1 was developed. Again, OH-1 is a OH. The problem is rather that there's not enough attack helos that the OH-1 should support in the first place, though OH-1 also act as an aerial FO for their artilleries' FDCs and in that regard, it's main problem is that it wasn't able to replace JGSDF's OH-6.

 

[Maro.Kyo]

陸上自衛官の定員約2000人を海・空に振り替えへ　人員を有効活用

防衛省は、限られた人員を有効に活用するために、陸上自衛官の定員をおよそ2000人、海上自衛隊と航空自衛隊に振り替える方針で最終調整しています。 　現在、陸上自衛官はおよそ14万人で海・空自衛官はそれぞれ4万3000人程度が勤務しています。 　今後も少子化が進むことが考えられることから、防衛省は陸上自衛官の定員およそ2000人を海・空自衛官の定員に振り替えることで最終調整しています。 　また、海上自衛隊では既存の艦船や潜水艦のほかに、水上・水中航走体などと呼ばれる無人機部隊を新編する方針です。...

news.tv-asahi.co.jp

Following the doctrinal shift, JSDF will also move 2000 of GSDF personnel to MSDF and ASDF. It also will start accepting female students to the JGSDF Engineering Highschool, JSDF's only junior military academy.

 

[helmutkohl]

any updates on the AFV side? IRC, they wanted to move on to other types of wheeled platforms over tracked

 

[Maro.Kyo]

any updates on the AFV side? IRC, they wanted to move on to other types of wheeled platforms over tracked

Patria AMV chosen over Mitsubishi MAV as APC replacement. More on https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/th...ombat-vehicle-mmcv-programs.40183/post-568836

 

[Grey Havoc]

I think effectively gutting the GSDF is going to backfire, and likely pretty quickly.

 

[Maro.Kyo]

I think effectively gutting the GSDF is going to backfire, and likely pretty quickly.

We should think about the role of JGSDF in present day. Their traditional role was to:

1. Deny the Soviets from assaulting Hokkaido and (if the Soviets have taken over Hokkaido) stop them from getting into Honshu
2. Eliminate any SpecOps forces that have infiltrated in-land, often in urban areas
3. Provide defense for the Air and Naval bases in Japan
4. Provide disaster support/relief as well as general civilian support

After the Cold War, "1" was a diminishing threat. They started to focus more on "2" and introduced equipments for urban warfare. "2" itself have also undergone changes, since now they were not only dealing with SpecOps but also terrorists.

Then there was China. After China's rise and the dawn of new Cold War, GSDF have been assigned a new role; defend the Nansei Isles from the Chinese, which effectively replaced "1". That is not to say that the threat from the Russians were non-existent, since they were continuing to have disputes over Kuril Islands, which the Japanese call the "Norther Territory", it was clear that the possibility of an actual war in Hokkaido was very slim. Introduction of wheeled platforms like the Type 19 wheeled SPG or the FWCV program, establishing ARDB and the restructuring of existing combat units into RDR all reflect the new priority.

I don't think they are gutting GSDF entirely but rather restructuring them accordingly to the new role. Though it is correct to say that the GSDF will lose significant part of their fighting capability as a ground force in a conventional warfare, and you could say that they are "effectively gutting" them in that sense, I think the restructured GSDF will be more useful and adapted to the broader counter-China strategy.

 

[Grey Havoc]

I hope that you are right.

 

[Maro.Kyo]

長射程ミサイルに5兆円　政府調整　防衛力整備計画で計上 - 日本経済新聞

政府は6日、月内に決定する防衛装備品などの経費額を示す「防衛力整備計画」で長射程ミサイルの関連経費に5兆円規模を計上する調整に入った。与党側に伝えた。新たに保有する「反撃能力」の手段で新計画の目玉とする。陸上自衛隊の国産ミサイル「12式地対艦誘導弾」を長射程に改良する。沖縄県・尖閣諸島など島しょ防衛用の「高速滑空弾」や迎撃が

www.nikkei.com

Japan to spend ¥5 trillion ($36 billion) in ramping up their long-range strike capabilities. This includes ¥300 billion ($2.18 billion) for small sat reconaissance and surveillance constellation and ¥200 billion ($1.45 billion) in building necessary infrastructure like munition storage facilities. Further details in their respective threads:

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/japanese-cruise-missiles.40672/page-2

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/japanese-hypersonic-missiles.29394/#post-569354

note : USD/JPY rxchange rates stayed around 1:110 for a fes years before this year's inflation and exchange rate spree. Currently it sits around 135.

 

[Maro.Kyo]

【フォト】自衛隊・輸送機、潜水艦にも反撃力　極超音速誘導弾を開発へ

政府が１６日に閣議決定する予定の防衛力整備計画に、自衛隊の輸送機や潜水艦に長射程ミサイルを搭載・発射可能にする方針を明記することが分かった。他国領域のミサイル…

www.sankei.com

Japan is planning to arm their transport aircraft and submarines with their new long-range missiles, including their newer hypersonic missiles. This is part of their new doctrine of counter-offesive capabilities against enemy bases. Such decision is going to be formaly anounced as part of their new Medium-term Defense Program in 16th of December.

The most significant change is that they are considering arming their submarines with VLS so that they could arm them with hypersonic missiles. This is a significant departure from their traditional submarine doctrine, which was to deter/contain Soviet and Chinese naval forces, especially submarines, from entering the pacific. Due to this reason, their submarines and torpedoes up until now were focused in deeper submergable and operational depths but sacrificed internal volume and crew comfort and habitability. Such changes are probably not achievable with current 29SS/Taigei class SSKs and will require a new hull design.

 

[skyblue]

陸上自衛官の定員約2000人を海・空に振り替えへ　人員を有効活用

防衛省は、限られた人員を有効に活用するために、陸上自衛官の定員をおよそ2000人、海上自衛隊と航空自衛隊に振り替える方針で最終調整しています。 　現在、陸上自衛官はおよそ14万人で海・空自衛官はそれぞれ4万3000人程度が勤務しています。 　今後も少子化が進むことが考えられることから、防衛省は陸上自衛官の定員およそ2000人を海・空自衛官の定員に振り替えることで最終調整しています。 　また、海上自衛隊では既存の艦船や潜水艦のほかに、水上・水中航走体などと呼ばれる無人機部隊を新編する方針です。...

news.tv-asahi.co.jp

Following the doctrinal shift, JSDF will also move 2000 of GSDF personnel to MSDF and ASDF. It also will start accepting female students to the JGSDF Engineering Highschool, JSDF's only junior military academy.

This is exactly like the premise of a typical anime.

 

[helmutkohl]

政府、ミサイル垂直発射型の潜水艦整備へ　海中からの反撃能力行使も | 毎日新聞

　政府は、長射程ミサイルを海中から発射可能な垂直発射装置（VLS）を備えた潜水艦を保有する方針を固めた。近く閣議決定する「防衛力整備計画」など安全保障関連3文書に明記する。政府は安保3文書に他国のミサイル発射拠点などをたたく「反撃能力」（敵基地攻撃能力）の保有を明記するが、陸や海上からに加え海中から

mainichi.jp

Summary

Japan to build new submarine with VLS
more aerial tanker planes like KC-46
deployment of Patriot missiles
more Aegis ships

 

[Ares]

It seems we are planning to build something crazy.

According to Mr. Masahisa Sato, foreign affairs and defense committee chairman of the ruling LDP, SPY-7 equipped Aegis ship will feature full ASW, AAW, cruising at 30+ knot capability with more than 200 VLS.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604008952076722176

View: https://twitter.com/SatoMasahisa/status/1604008952076722176

 

[Nik]

Do I get a sense that the idea is to mass-produce drones / UCAVs, surely with 'wits' honed by video-games ? With threatened incursions from West and/or North, invaders would face multi-layered swarm attacks, giving head-on and top-down kills...

Also limits JDF's 'human exposure' to casualties etc. IIRC, Japan has a age-problem, too few 'Brave Young People' available for extensive 'trad' deployment. Okay, China and Russia also have generational demographic issues, but they currently have sufficient 'depth' to cover the gaps...

IMHO, Rus demographics have taken a bad hit in Ukraine, and looks like Belarus is about to suffer same lethal culling...

Wasn't there some indication that China planned swarm attacks to spear-head invasion of Taiwan ? I wonder if Japanese swarms would easily 'sell' to Japanese population as 'defensive', so could be licensed / co-produced by Taiwan ??

 

[RavenOne]

hmmm, i'll believe when I see it.....not saying their aerospace industries with the likes of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, or Subaru Kawasaki Heavy industries don't have the capability but its be a major game changer.

See after their next elections what happens ...

cheers

 

[Kota]

What pretty much everyone in this thread doesn't seem to know is that Japan isn't eliminating all organic helicopter attack capabilities. The current plan is to replace the attack helicopters with UAVs, but it will be supplemented with armed transport helicopters. The current speculation is the UH-2 with HOSS, but I've also seen people say that a BK117 solution is possible too.

 

[yasotay]

Well, I wish them luck. Hopefully their UCAV will be able to land next to the often moving operations centers and render a personal report to the commander on its observations once all of the communications are jammed or cybered out. That is still a thing.
Commanders plan for the worst case, and hope for better.

 

[Maro.Kyo]

Well, I wish them luck. Hopefully their UCAV will be able to land next to the often moving operations centers

why should they? They have much longer range and endurance. Also, Senkaku is not the kind of theatre you have in mind.

render a personal report to the commander on its observations once all of the communications are jammed or cybered out. That is still a thing.
Commanders plan for the worst case, and hope for better.

Without comms helos are just as useless

 

[yasotay]

why should they? They have much longer range and endurance. Also, Senkaku is not the kind of theatre you have in mind.


Without comms helos are just as useless

Except that the helicopter pilot can land and report directly to the ground commander since the helicopters are a tactical tool. I did this a number of times when we were exercising limited communications. In fact, sometimes helicopter crews will intentionally execute missions without electronic communications with its headquarters to minimize electronic signatures. So, I will disagree that lost communications make a helicopter useless, unless it has no humans able to get out and report.

I will agree that a UCAV would be a better tool for operational missions over water or in very deep operations over land.