The only way to solve the issue would be to send the S-400 system back to Russia instead of trying to gine them to the UAE which could potentially harm the relationship to the US.
 
And the potentially craziest outcome anyone wouldn't have dared to imagine (UAE to buy SA400 from Turkey... While hosting US bases flying... F-35):

https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulid...e-uae-most-diversified-air-defense-in-region/
Y'all thought I was biased and refused to listen when I kept saying the entire issue was rooted in geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Turkey, as well as Israel leveraging its immense influence in Washington to get Turkey kicked out of the program...

If it had primarily been about technical concerns, the U.S. would've raised hell every time Israeli F-35s flew over active Russian S-400 systems in Syria, or it would've never even approved F-35 sales to Greece, which has an active, operational S-300PMU battery (they also have Tor-M1s) on the island of Crete, where American F-35s even flew over in mutual exercises --even though Turkey never once activated its sole S-400 system beyond brief operational tests shortly after taking delivery; It has remained in storage at Mürted AFB ever since.


https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/th...ii-joint-strike-fighter-jsf.17732/post-712793

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/th...ii-joint-strike-fighter-jsf.17732/post-702734

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/th...ii-joint-strike-fighter-jsf.17732/post-702781

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/th...ii-joint-strike-fighter-jsf.17732/post-702745

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/th...ii-joint-strike-fighter-jsf.17732/post-835144

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/th...ii-joint-strike-fighter-jsf.17732/post-835144

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/th...ii-joint-strike-fighter-jsf.17732/post-816827

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/th...ii-joint-strike-fighter-jsf.17732/post-756676

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/th...ii-joint-strike-fighter-jsf.17732/post-755489

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/th...ii-joint-strike-fighter-jsf.17732/post-729178

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/th...ii-joint-strike-fighter-jsf.17732/post-724079

I could dig up even more of my old posts on this issue --I've literally got four pages of posts on this ;) :p

It's almost as if the "technical issue" was never really the issue to begin with. Amazing how quickly it vanished once both sides had a reason to make it vanish.

So... who was supposedly "biased" again? ;)
 
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Your assuming the S-400 would stay in the UAE or Qatar and not be immediately passed on....

Russia apparently has major concerns that if sold to the UAE because of their divergence with Russia over the Iran conflict the missiles could end up in Ukraine so is apparently considering limiting the transfer to the shorter range missiles and is checking the UAE-Turkey paperwork with a fine toothcomb. They are also considering vetoing the transfer to the UAE but allowing transfer to Qatar.
 
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Your assuming the S-400 would stay in the UAE or Qatar and not be immediately passed on....
Nothing I said in that post even implies that.

If they do eventually end up being transferred to a third party (negotiations with Russia are still ongoing), the batteries would ultimately still find their way back to Russia. But those Gulf states are currently trying to acquire virtually every air-defense system they can get their hands on (Qatar even ordered the entire Turkish "Steel Dome" IADS catalogue), so I don't think the S-400 batteries would necessarily be passed on to Russia immediately --at least not until the current conflict subsides.

It's not like the UAE will be receiving F-35s anytime soon. The U.S. and Israel demanded far more than the UAE was willing to compromise on after they had supposedly approved its initial request. That's why the UAE ultimately went ahead and placed a large order for the Rafale F4 instead.

They already operate Pantsirs and receive Russian satellite services; they've always had strong relations with Russia, just as they have with every other major power.
 
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I wouldn't be surprised at all if the UAE in turn donated those SA-21 batteries to Ukraine.
That will be one hell of a surprise. About similar to Israel donating German subs to Russia.
It goes completely against an established relationship between Russia and UAE, as well as urgent needs of UAE itself. And for what?
 
It goes completely against an established relationship between Russia and UAE, as well as urgent needs of UAE itself. And for what?

Don't forget all of those Iranian Shaheed drones that the UAE has been on the receiving end of, drones that Iran has been supplying to Russia in large numbers.
 
Don't forget all of those Iranian Shaheed drones that the UAE has been on the receiving end of, drones that Iran has been supplying to Russia in large numbers.
What have Iranian drones, manufactured in Iran, used against the UAE, to do with Russia?

Not to mention that essentially all drones Russia uses (and launches) today are indigenous Geranium models, internally divergent from their Iranian cousins.

Furthermore, it's doubtful the UAE looks at Russia the wrong way because the United States and Israel attacked Iran which in turn bend the entirety if the Gulf nations over the table.

Lastly and by far most importantly:

What has this to do with the F-35?
 
Don't forget all of those Iranian Shaheed drones that the UAE has been on the receiving end of, drones that Iran has been supplying to Russia in large numbers.
Exactly, Iran supplying to Russia. What it has to do with UAE?
UAE:Russia trade is >40 times that of Ukraine, FDI ratio is 1:500. Official Ukraine for UAE, apart from the drone deal, amounts to a single medium enterprise.

UAE is likely specifically a way out for Erdogan, exactly because of that.
 
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As if Russia wouldn't have a say in who Turkey hands its two S-400 batteries over to -- that is, unless Turkey wants to risk yet another serious confrontation with Russia...

These are weapon systems worth billions of dollars, not toys or pencils you can casually pass to the person next to you.

Even simple equipment like guns or mortars are sold under strict end-user agreements that explicitly prohibit re-export without the exporting country's prior approval...
 
An acquisition of S-400 would also preclude the UAE operating the F-35 in the future so if they did get them from Turkey I would expect they wouldn't last long in UAE service, a stop gap until replacement systems arrive.

Why doesn't Russia just take them back, seems like they could use a few more systems as well...
 
Why doesn't Russia just take them back, seems like they could use a few more systems as well...
Did you fall asleep sometime in the late '90s and only just wake up? Russia-NATO relations have deteriorated to the point where we're literally edging toward a potential nuclear exchange if our leaders continue acting this selfishly and recklessly...

Seriously though, I'm not even trying to be insulting here, but some of the takes I'm reading genuinely make me wonder which reality you guys have been living in...

An acquisition of S-400 would also preclude the UAE operating the F-35
They already bent over backwards and still didn't get the F-35 (and they're literally allies of Israel)... In the long run, the batteries will still ultimately end up back in Russia once this crisis subsides:

If they do eventually end up being transferred to a third party (negotiations with Russia are still ongoing), the batteries would ultimately still find their way back to Russia. But those Gulf states are currently trying to acquire virtually every air-defense system they can get their hands on (Qatar even ordered the entire Turkish "Steel Dome" IADS catalogue), so I don't think the S-400 batteries would necessarily be passed on to Russia immediately --at least not until the current conflict subsides.

It's not like the UAE will be receiving F-35s anytime soon. The U.S. and Israel demanded far more than the UAE was willing to compromise on after they had supposedly approved its initial request. That's why the UAE ultimately went ahead and placed a large order for the Rafale F4 instead.
 
Why doesn't Russia just take them back, seems like they could use a few more systems as well...
Russia produced ~5-6 regiments per year in late 2010s - early 2020s. I.e. 12 battalions, 2-3 independent launch sections(batteries) each.
That's without S-300v4 and S-350/500 deliveries.
As hard as Russian losses are(especially over last half a year), it's often somewhat underestimated how much Russia can produce - and that it's more restricted by how much it can buy from itself, rather than how much it can do.
Money&customer is literally better for Russia than that (export) battalion, requiring modifications. Turkish government was a very prestigious customer, but since they didn't really use their S400s - I'd imagine they didn't buy missiles or services. UAE is also a nice customer, and they need missiles.

Especially the advanced 40N6 and 9N96 missiles(which btw TAF had), which are a must for this family to actually process saturation salvos - but which are damn pricy for Russia itself.

As for F-35 ... well, it really appears that this was mostly about NATO procuring from right places.
 
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Did you fall asleep sometime in the late '90s and only just wake up? Russia-NATO relations have deteriorated to the point where we're literally edging toward a potential nuclear exchange if our leaders continue acting this selfishly and recklessly...

Seriously though, I'm not even trying to be insulting here, but some of the takes I'm reading genuinely make me wonder which reality you guys have been living in...
So Russia is happy for the system to be a controlled export items and approve them being sold to another country but they couldn't mandate instead there is no sale possible, send them back to us? I suspect in the contractual documentation there would be clear stipulations about Russia being able to retain the systems in the event of something like this happening.

They already bent over backwards and still didn't get the F-35 (and they're literally allies of Israel)... In the long run, the batteries will still ultimately end up back in Russia once this crisis subsides:
I'm not sold that the UAE will never acquire the F-35, all it will take is one Gulf state receiving approval and then the tap will be turned on and airframes will flow. It may not be till 2035 but it seems almost certain to happen.
 
Never say never Ainen for the Turkish F-35 pilot training, they could always send the initial pilots to the US or Europe for training.
 
What are your thoughts about what only 40 Turkish F-35 would be good for?
Does Turkey would go back to become a components manufacture with this deal?
Do you think they would be allowed to carry the nukes at incirlik?

Without one or both of these outcomes, I have my doubts about this whole endeavor.
Welp, Turkey only needs the F-35 for three particular reasons:
  1. NATO interoperability: The F-16s will eventually have to be retired and, even with a comprehensive MLU, they won't remain competitive into the 2030s. What modern aircraft fulfills NATO interoperability requirements better than the F-35?
  2. Nuclear sharing: Same reason. The F-16s will have to be retired by ~2040, and Turkey will eventually need a replacement. Kaan won't be certified to carry B61s.
  3. Test & Evaluation: Kaan won't reach IOC immediately, the earliest deliveries won't even begin until 2029 and its initial focus will primarily be A2A. There are six Turkish F-35s already in storage that could be delivered soon (in about two years), and this is where they come in. Incidentally, countries that pose a threat to Turkey are also in the F-35 club, so another benefit is gaining first-hand experience with the platform and preparing accordingly.

Turkey is a major UAV powerhouse, whose first LO platforms are set to enter service this year, but that experience still won't come anywhere close to operating a manned LO deep-strike fleet built around a mature design. Supplementing those six already-built aircraft with new orders won't result in additional deliveries before at least 2032, but they would still provide highly valuable operational experience.

As such, there's a reason why the military is only interested in around 40 aircraft at most --most of the planned ~500-strong combat fleet will be made up of indigenous aircraft, and you simply don't need any more than 40 F-35s for those three reasons.

GFQs5RRXwAAZ0IJ


Does Turkey would go back to become a components manufacture with this deal?
I don't think re-admission into the programme is possible. All Turkish workshare (except for the engine parts) has already been redistributed to other partner nations or new customers, most notably Germany. Rejoining would also require the approval of all partner nations, which certainly won't be easy... Still... you never know.
 
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Never say never Ainen for the Turkish F-35 pilot training, they could always send the initial pilots to the US or Europe for training.
Three instructor pilots had already been trained, one of whom in fact retired last year. Still, eight years is a long time, and they'll likely have to retrain those still in the force (or train new instructors) as well as the ground crews...

297
images
 
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The situation is a big mess. But Fat Amy without her radar is more aware of the battle space than most other aircraft With one. Her remaining sensors, and her wingman's radar - as well as other battle force sensor nodes - contribute to a remarkably complete tactical picture for her pilot.
She might even be in the vanguard of the attack since she generates no active radar signature.
File this right alongside the USNs “solution” to reloading VLS cells with FF(X).

In this theatre of the absurd maybe there is some insane logic to using radar-less F-35s as manned CCAs. As a user of this forum, i suddenly empathize with a pilot suffering from vertigo.
 
They would compliment the KAAN, especially in the strike role.

Well before NATO countries supported-in-part the coup and refused extradition of those wanted for it; which led to Turkey mistrusting NATO and buying the S400 (Russia showed support for the elected government, surprise, surprise) . Turkey had vested interest with Lockheed Martin to integrate Turkish strike munitions onto the F-35, namely SOM-J . That obviously isn't happening anymore, and with advancements in Turkey's UAV developments, it would make more sense that strike duties be carried out by LO unmanned aircraft with munitions developed domestically for them, which is plentiful - See Here - https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/th...munitions-developments-news.35193/post-922420

F-35 is no longer seen as an critical item for Turkey, it's a good tool to have for international training where Turkey does not have or want to send KAAN (eventually) to. That's it.

Oh, but if by some chance US wants to restart parts production of the F-35 in Turkey, and If Turkey has capacity for it, Aselsan for instance was producing parts for the EOTS on the F-35 - now they are producing their own EOTS for three Turkish platforms (lol) - Perhaps Turkey may honour purchase of some F-35Bs, they'd be useful on MUGEM and TCG Anadolu.

As for the S400, Turkish analysts made a point on perhaps Somalia being one of the countries, makes sense. Turkey is building SLV/Ballistic Missile test facility and has offshore drilling platforms there. We'll see I guess.
 
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https://news.bgov.com/federal-contracting/pentagon-blocks-watchdogs-review-of-costly-f-35-program

The Pentagon has blocked the public release of a congressionally-mandated annual report on the costly and controversial F-35 fighter jet program for the first time in more than 20 years.

The nonpartisan Government Accountability Office said Defense Department officials concluded its yearly assessment of the $1.6 trillion program contained “Controlled Unclassified Information,” which meant none of the report could be released to the
 
That would actually make sense. More if the F-35B could carry the B61-12.
Yeah, the F-35B would make sense for a STOBAR carrier, but it's genuinely a nightmare to operate. I'd honestly much rather Turkey never goes down that path at all...

TCG Anadolu doesn't even need it anyway --it's at its best in the current amphibious assault configuration with helis and MALE drones.

If we're fantasizing, the ideal outcome would be the US providing Turkey with F-35Cs and EMALS (might as well ask for the E-2D in this case :D) so MUGEM could switch to CATOBAR.

But realistically, there's no reason for Washington to ever do that, and the Navy would still want to operate Kızılelma and Anka-3 from the deck anyway...
 
It was a bad mistake for the Royal Navy/RAF to go for the F-35B, I would rather Turkey goes for the F-35C for their future carrier and does not touch the F-35B with a barge pole.
 
True Sferrin, but the F-35B has always been the weeker of the F-35 family due to the short range that in part was due to the lift fan being where the fuel tank should have been on the conventional F-35A/C variants.
 
True Sferrin, but the F-35B has always been the weeker of the F-35 family due to the short range that in part was due to the lift fan being where the fuel tank should have been on the conventional F-35A/C variants.
No doubt. But it is far better than nothing at all.
 
@had :rolleyes:
I don't think re-admission into the programme is possible. All Turkish workshare (except for the engine parts) has already been redistributed to other partner nations or new customers, most notably Germany. Rejoining would also require the approval of all partner nations, which certainly won't be easy... Still... you never know.
Turkish Grand National Assembly National Defense Committee Chairman Hulusi Akar:

Hulusi Akar, Chairman of the National Defense Commission of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, made noteworthy statements regarding Turkey's discussions with the United States on the S-400 air defense system and the F-35 program.

Speaking in Washington, Akar answered questions from M5 Washington Correspondent Anıl Sural.

Responding to questions about the F-35 program and the S-400 systems, Akar also stated that a positive atmosphere had emerged in Turkey-U.S. relations following the NATO Summit.

Akar said that the members of Congress he met with in Washington also expressed positive views about the outcomes of the summit. He added that the technical and operational work regarding the S-400 issue would be carried out by the relevant ministries.

Commenting on the process, Akar said:

"The parties are working to achieve concrete progress, and hopefully we will reach a good point. These are, of course, technical studies, operational work, and efforts carried out by the ministries. Congress is not involved in this process. We left the meetings with the impression that there are no remaining obstacles on this issue."

"Turkey Will Return to the Production Program"

Hulusi Akar also made important remarks regarding Turkey's participation in the F-35 program.

When asked by Sural about the status of the F-35 fighter jets that had been produced for Turkey but not delivered, and how the process would move forward following statements by U.S. President Donald Trump, Akar emphasized that Turkey is not merely a buyer but also one of the program's production partners.

Highlighting Turkey's role in the F-35 program, Akar stated that the process would continue within the framework of the program, saying:

"We are returning to the program. We are not simply an F-35 purchaser. We have responsibilities in the program, including manufacturing components, and we will fulfill those responsibilities. Therefore, this is a program, and we will continue our work."

Akar also commented on the overall atmosphere of his meetings in Washington, stating that the NATO Summit had been highly successful for relations among NATO, the United States, and Turkey.

He added that a new period had begun within NATO, with new approaches and initiatives coming onto the agenda, and emphasized that contacts between Turkey and the United States on defense and security issues are continuing.
https://m5dergi.com/savunma-haberle...-35-mesaji-turkiye-uretim-programina-donecek/
 
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(The F-35 airframe itself does not rust,) but radar-absorbent materials (RAM, such as HAVE GLASS) do; the "rust" is primarily oxidation of the coating's surface layer and does not directly compromise structural integrity.
Severe corrosion issues on the F-35 began to accelerate in 2023, stabilizing at a level of ~3.0 by 2025–2026
(more than a threefold increase)—particularly for the Navy/Marine Corps (carrier-based variants).

2021–2025:
Full Mission Capable (FMC) rate (capable of performing all missions): 38% → 25% (historic low).
Mission Capable (MC) rate (capable of performing at least one mission): 67% → 44%.
F-35A (Air Force, 2025): FMC 28.5%.
F-35C (Navy, 2025): FMC approx. 15% (lowest; subject to the greatest stress from shipboard corrosion).
 

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Would it be possible to have waterproof RAM? That would help with the issues currently experience by the carrier based F-35B/C variants.
 
^ caused by the combination of the F-35's unique skin and maritime environment. It's not rust as some commonly claim to be.
 
?However, if the coated area is large, it may compromise stealth performance (resulting in increased RCS) and have long-term implications.
 

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