Germany kills off Typhoon in the 90s

[uk 75]

Discussion of Germany killing off the MRCA reminded me that in the years after 1990 there were alls to kill off the Eurofighter as it was still called.
The Luftwaffe liked its F4s and had ambitious upgrade plans. Some even thought that Mig29s might be a cheaper supplement.
The spur comes with a major row between Britain and Germany over the chaos in Yugoslavia. Relations between Bonn/Berlin and London are also frosty after former PM Thatcher makes a speech at Chatham House.
The Greens force a vote in the Bundestag to block sales of Eurofighter to Oman and Saudi Arabia.
With budgets tight, the German Government announce withdrawal from Eurofighter blamng poor financial controls and development problems.
With the UK trying to cut defence expenditure, BAe are told that the RAF order is "frozen" pending a new Defence Review.
Italy proves remarkably decisive and announces a Lockheed Aeritalia deal to refurbish F104S and build F16batch? under licence. McDonnell Douglas move equally fast in Spain with an offer for more F18s.
At a banquet in Paris, Jacques Chirac remarks that there is still a European Fighter aircraft. Its name is Rafale.

 

[galgot]

Comme aurait pu dire Jacques, "ça m'en touche une... et l'autre avec".

 

[Archibald]

Germany would have bought F-18C/D to replace the Phantoms, and later, F-18E/F to replace the MiG-29s...

Italy would buy american and on the cheap to replace its antiquated F-104ASA: F-16, as per OTL, except new ones, and in large numbers.

Spain... might buy Rafale indeed. But they already bought F-18 in the past...

 

[SSgtC]

Could Germany have gone with the F-15C/E instead of the Bug? Other than price, the Eagle seems like a better fit than the Hornet

 

[zen]

Discussion of Germany killing off the MRCA reminded me that in the years after 1990 there were alls to kill off the Eurofighter as it was still called.
The Luftwaffe liked its F4s and had ambitious upgrade plans. Some even thought that Mig29s might be a cheaper supplement.
The spur comes with a major row between Britain and Germany over the chaos in Yugoslavia. Relations between Bonn/Berlin and London are also frosty after former PM Thatcher makes a speech at Chatham House.
The Greens force a vote in the Bundestag to block sales of Eurofighter to Oman and Saudi Arabia.
With budgets tight, the German Government announce withdrawal from Eurofighter blamng poor financial controls and development problems.
With the UK trying to cut defence expenditure, BAe are told that the RAF order is "frozen" pending a new Defence Review.
Italy proves remarkably decisive and announces a Lockheed Aeritalia deal to refurbish F104S and build F16batch? under licence. McDonnell Douglas move equally fast in Spain with an offer for more F18s.
At a banquet in Paris, Jacques Chirac remarks that there is still a European Fighter aircraft. Its name is Rafale.

I remember that! Several times in fact it cropped up. At one point German Defence Minister was I think none other than a descendant of Baron von Richtofen!
Certainly it was very real under Gerhard Schröder.

As to what the UK could do....depends.
By that time a lot of money and effort had already been spent. It would have been easier to abandon the effort in the early 90's.
But under Thatcher the effort became a case of the UK pushing this forward. After all Germany had banned it's industry from cooperating on EAP and the UK had just carried on. Horrified they were about to loose out Bonn jumped back in demanding workshare.

So at the time I don't think the UK would cancel and thus it's a question of whether Italy and Spain want a piece of the action or not.
Ironically without Germany delaying things the program would proceed more rapidly and cost less....a lot less.

Nor would German workshare have them bungle the FCS and have BAe ride to the rescue. All wasted time and money.
It would also refute the very reason Heseltine had backed EFA over P.1216, and shutting domestic design of fighters down for European collaboration. Something only reversed with Team Tempest.

 

[richard B]

Comme aurait pu dire Jacques, "ça m'en touche une... et l'autre avec".

The actual citation is : "ça m'en touche une sans faire bouger l'autre" ( it touches me one without moving the other )

 

[Archibald]

My favorite Chirac quote is the open mic with Thatcher. During PAC negociations when she staunchly refused any compromise over GB slice of UE budget...
("I waaant my money baaaack" that kind of annoying, penny-pinching tantrum...)
A very tired and irritated Chirac said something akin to
"what does that shrew wants in the end, my balls on a plate maybe ?"
"mais enfin elle veut quoi en plus cette megere, mes couilles sur un plateau ?"

 

[alertken]

uk75 paints so vivid a picture, I wonder quite how it became fantasy, not fact.

I think the A is sheer luck, and comments here about individual Decision-makers are so right - easily it could have gone awry. Duplication (?Gripen: triplication) is sad, but we are better off with 3 types than none - or so we here mostly think.

So, this Forum is Future Speculation. £/$-gazillions per Unit. Let us accept that a Year >2030 multi-role combat type is necessary for Defence of the Realm - You never can tell. If we accept that taxpayers will not tolerate a politician offering to spend what it takes...if that is more than not a lot, then: what should we buy to succeed current single-seat joust platforms? What should FOAS/Tempest look like? Unpersoned? (!!)

Can we agree to try to find some compromise tolerable to France+whoever is in charge of most of the little islands off Denmark+Sweden+Italy+Germany...
Or should we forget the whole thing, give our bright young codewriters more work for Disney, and wait to take a few Units of whatever is offered from USA?

 

[galgot]

Comme aurait pu dire Jacques, "ça m'en touche une... et l'autre avec".

The actual citation is : "ça m'en touche une sans faire bouger l'autre" ( it touches me one without moving the other )

Yes i know, and the original citation means "I don't give a f...".
Which clearly wouldn't be the case with the uk75's story. So I modified the original to "it touches me one, and the other too"

 

[Archibald]

It exactly means "This merely moved one of my testicles, but not the other one". Basically "oh, nothing even remotely important..."

Chirac could be a pig at times. He had a knack for memorable punchlines, some of them pretty crass.

 

[zen]

uk75 paints so vivid a picture, I wonder quite how it became fantasy, not fact.

I think the A is sheer luck, and comments here about individual Decision-makers are so right - easily it could have gone awry. Duplication (?Gripen: triplication) is sad, but we are better off with 3 types than none - or so we here mostly think.

So, this Forum is Future Speculation. £/$-gazillions per Unit. Let us accept that a Year >2030 multi-role combat type is necessary for Defence of the Realm - You never can tell. If we accept that taxpayers will not tolerate a politician offering to spend what it takes...if that is more than not a lot, then: what should we buy to succeed current single-seat joust platforms? What should FOAS/Tempest look like? Unpersoned? (!!)

Can we agree to try to find some compromise tolerable to France+whoever is in charge of most of the little islands off Denmark+Sweden+Italy+Germany...
Or should we forget the whole thing, give our bright young codewriters more work for Disney, and wait to take a few Units of whatever is offered from USA?

I think this thread concerns the Eurofighter Typhoon and the question of what happens next if Germany had pulled out in the 90's.

So it's not a question about the 2020's and 2030's relating to the next generation combat aircraft to succeed Typhoon. An environment in which say the UK, pushes on with Typhoon entering service years earlier than OTL makes for a very different one than now. As we have yet to reason likely export successes or failures.

 

[Archibald]

Could Germany have gone with the F-15C/E instead of the Bug? Other than price, the Eagle seems like a better fit than the Hornet

Before reunification, makes some sense. After 1990, with ruined East Germany to digest... forget it. F-18C would be plenty enough to replace the Phantoms. Incidentally, Spain still had their F-18A in service (1983 procurement, big upgrade in the 90's).

 

[zen]

Could Germany have gone with the F-15C/E instead of the Bug? Other than price, the Eagle seems like a better fit than the Hornet

Before reunification, makes some sense. After 1990, with ruined East Germany to digest... forget it. F-18C would be plenty enough to replace the Phantoms. Incidentally, Spain still had theirs in service (1983 procurement).

I think they were really talking about F16s at the time as it was cheaper. Though the Finnish competition might have exerted an influence....

 

[Archibald]

Ah sure, F-16 is so cheap...

 

[DWG]

Germany couldn't get out of the Eurofighter because of the punitive penalty costs that would have been invoked. The leading '90s voice against the Eurofighter, German Defence Minister Volker Rühe, wanted to have his cake and eat it. He wanted to be seen as tough on defence spending, but not to the point of actually costing Germany its industrial participation benefits. So the aim was to cancel the Eurofighter, but not cancel the Eurofighter, which he aimed to achieve by gutting it of one engine and the CAPTOR radar.
This would of course have ended up costing more rather than less because it's basically starting over, and the UK, Italy and Spain knew this, and knew that it was Rühe grandstanding for his personal political aggrandizement, without the rest of the government behind him (election promises notwithstanding), so were never going to give an inch.

{Sarcasm}Whatever happened to Volker Rühe{/sarcasm}

 

[Archibald]

Look ma ! A german McNamara ! A teutonic Sandys ! A goth Diefenbaker !

Germany couldn't get out of the Eurofighter because of the punitive penalty costs that would have been invoked.

That old trick saved so many European aerospace projects... Concorde readily approves...

 

[SSgtC]

Look ma ! A german McNamara ! A teutonic Sandys ! A goth Diefenbaker !

Germany couldn't get out of the Eurofighter because of the punitive penalty costs that would have been invoked.

That old trick saved so many European aerospace projects... Concorde readily approves...

Are you trying to make me vomit with that list?

 

[Hood]

This scenario nearly did come about, it could have easily happened.
The results? Well I think on balance Britain would have gone ahead, it had no choice not too and in any case had funnelled in the best of its R&D effort in that era.
Spain and Italy might not have walked off, they had lucrative workshares, even more so if Germany lost its (what was in 1991) 24% workshare.

It might have perhaps killed some of the peripherals, EJ2000 might have been replaced by a less than ideal RB.199 development, GEC-Ferranti could have handled the radar no problem, Pirate might have continued, depends on the funding available. The result might have been in service a little sooner, perhaps a little less capable. But it could have been done.

Germany will have to see what deal it can get from the US, unlikely to turn to Rafale as Dassault is unlikely to suddenly give DASA a substantial workshare. Not hard to imagine Hornet 2000 wouldn't be pushed hard to the Spanish and Germans but its no Typhoon and unless they were willing to pick up the R&D tab I don't see it as a starter (though Spain might have done a deal with McD tied in with Harrier II).

 

[zen]

This scenario nearly did come about, it could have easily happened.
The results? Well I think on balance Britain would have gone ahead, it had no choice not too and in any case had funnelled in the best of its R&D effort in that era.
Spain and Italy might not have walked off, they had lucrative workshares, even more so if Germany lost its (what was in 1991) 24% workshare.

It might have perhaps killed some of the peripherals, EJ2000 might have been replaced by a less than ideal RB.199 development, GEC-Ferranti could have handled the radar no problem, Pirate might have continued, depends on the funding available. The result might have been in service a little sooner, perhaps a little less capable. But it could have been done.

Germany will have to see what deal it can get from the US, unlikely to turn to Rafale as Dassault is unlikely to suddenly give DASA a substantial workshare. Not hard to imagine Hornet 2000 wouldn't be pushed hard to the Spanish and Germans but its no Typhoon and unless they were willing to pick up the R&D tab I don't see it as a starter (though Spain might have done a deal with McD tied in with Harrier II).

I don't see that over the EJ200, it's basically a XG40 development and that's very much an RR thing funded by the UK. But early service entry might see more engine management system issues as the early engines did throw up a few.

Captor is pretty much Blue Vixen's younger but better brother.
Not how involved Germany was in DAS....? I seem to recall it was more UK and Italy?
Pirate might be dropped, though an IRST sensor has been an ambition since Lightning.

 

[GTX]

I've often wondered if Germany might have gone for the Saab Gripen in this sort of scenario.

 

[Michel Van]

I've often wondered if Germany might have gone for the Saab Gripen in this sort of scenario.

The Luftwaffe prefer high performance twin engine aircraft (bad F-104G, bad F-104G, pfui )
There not much in 1990s:
Refurbish F-4 (Luftwaffe orignal plan)
F-18
Rafale

I think that Chirac could have chance to sell the Rafale in nice package to German Government in 1990s.
what include Germans companies involve in production of german Rafale

While Thatcher ram the F-18 down the throat of RAF and RN...

 

[Grey Havoc]

While Thatcher ram the F-18 down the throat of RAF and RN...

Maybe not. AST.410 and the P.1216 program would have been very likely fully reactivated.

 

[zen]

While Thatcher ram the F-18 down the throat of RAF and RN...

Maybe not. AST.410 and the P.1216 program would have been very likely fully reactivated.

Early 90's maybe. Late 90's it might be easier to carry on with Eurofighter.

The hedge your bets option is fund scaled up XG.40, larger Blue Vixen, and do comparison studies between CTOL and STORVL.

 

[Michel Van]

Maybe not. AST.410 and the P.1216 program would have been very likely fully reactivated.

The only two questions in that Matter: are they Cheaper and fast to deliver to RAF and RN as A/F-18 ?

 

[uk 75]

If the Germans had baled out earlier, I still dont see P1216 being a runner.. The original idea of replacing Jaguar and Harrier is overtaken by the need to replace F4s in RAFG and the Falklands and some UK Tornado Fs. The RN has its Sea Harrier with Amraam etc and no new carriers planned until Labour decide in 1997 to bring them back.
Although F18 would be the most likely substitute (used by Canada, Australia and US Marines) for the RAFG and Jaguar replacement (3sns in UK supporting UKMF), EFA later Typhoon is BAe's only major future project.

 

[kaiserd]

A UK-only Typhoon would have inevitably meant no Typhoon at all.
A German withdrawal would have almost certainly been deadly to the program as a whole.
A decision to effectively buy a big chunk of the Gripen project for German industry would at least have been consistent with a decision to exit the Eurofighter program. Buying US F-18s while closing German Tornado/ Typhoon production lines seems unlikely politically; perhaps a similar arrangement as mention above re: the Gripen but with France and the Rafale may have emerged.
Spain and Italy likely to cover themselves with F-18 and F-16 buys (almost certainly with local involvement re: assembly etc.) with junior-partnerships in the program that became the JSF/ F-35 become the future hope.
UK (RAF and industry) most badly impacted (hence the country that fought hardest to keep Germany in the Eurofighter program), perhaps interim smallish F-15E purchase followed by hopes pinned to joint involvement with US of what became the JSF/ F-35, potentially with top-up purchases/ loans of other US fighters as the real-life F-35 delays kick-in and the RAFs (longer surviving) Jaguars, Tornado F3s & GR4s and Harriers start ageing out before the F-35 can replace them.

 

[JFC Fuller]

A UK-only Typhoon would have inevitably meant no Typhoon at all.

As France could deliver Rafale as a national project on broadly the same timeline there is no reason why the UK could not deliver Typhoon as a national project had it chosen to have done so.

 

[uk 75]

The British Economy from the 80s on was not in the same parlous state that forced collaboration in the 60s and 70s. BAe was getting out of the civil business into the lucrative military business.
Moreover the Saudis and Omanis wanted Typhoons and would have helped with the finance. This nearly happened with the BAe P110.