Future of Spaceflight:Manned versus Unmanned

[uk 75]

I have always been fascinated by spaceflight. I had a toy Atlas with Mercury as a kid and watched the Moon landings live as a teenager.
However, watching the achievements of the Pioneer and Voyager probes and the dull red landscape of Mars shown by Viking, I became an enthusiast for keeping us out of space.
The long years of shuttle and the ISS have not really changed this view (ok Hubble STS needed human assistance).
I see no point in sending humans to the Moon, still less further out. Our progress in AI and engineering make it possible for machines to do what needs doing.
The ISS is a relic of a time when computing power was a fraction of what it is today.
Private venture spaceflight by Branson, Musk et al is a crowd pleaser, but the serious work will be done by machines not humans.

 

[CNH]

Unmanned, obviously.

I have yet to see a convincing argument for putting a person into space. Once they are there, what do they do? An unmanned vehicle can do all of that, at a fraction of the cost, a fraction of the payload, and a fraction of the danger.

 

[fredymac]

There's something to be said for satisfying yourself with postcards rather than going yourself although the vacation industry would be hard hit.

You have neglected to mention why Musk/Bezos are self financing their activities. For Musk it is species survival in case something goes catastrophically bad on Earth. For Bezos, it is the O'Neil assessment that if you are advanced technological species, space is the optimal place to live inside artificial worlds crafted around permanently idealized environments. This later view is predicated on moving industry (and resource extraction) off Earth.

In both cases, they are moving forwards on their own and with apparent enthusiasm on the part of most people. Its OK to be uninterested in such things. Unfortunately, there will always be those demanding coercion to stop or impede them through various means (legal, regulatory, etc). Hopefully such developments won't get much traction.

 

[Sferrin]

Unfortunately, there will always be those demanding coercion to stop or impede them through various means (legal, regulatory, etc).

Never understood this. What kind of person goes out of their way to stop something that has no impact on them personally and doesn't hurt anybody?

 

[uk 75]

Although I still believe in the view that space is such a hostile environment that machines rather than people should be sent there, I do not believe in stopping Musk and co from trying.
I suspect, however, that even in 20 yrs time AI will be handling workaday spaceflight and human spaceflight will be seen as an "adventure sport" for individual enthusiasts rather than a taxpayer funded industry even in China.

 

[edwest4]

Regardless of who funds it, manned spaceflight will continue. NASA recently added to their number of astronauts. Yes, space is far more dangerous than anywhere on earth, but NASA obviously has plans for these men and women. I too grew up during the moon race, asked for and got a number of books about astronauts and rockets and watched the moon landing. It was just a given that such a mission was possible, but years later I was able to review the technology available. I now realize the computing power and other technology was at a level that true courage was required to do this. What remains a mystery is why other manned missions were stopped after Apollo. And a number of other aerospace projects wound down, or perhaps went black, in the 1970s.

AI will add to, not replace, capabilities required for the next round. I am unsure if anything close to the level of national and international enthusiasm will occur. Since the apparent goal is commercial exploitation, I expect to see a minimum of ten launches a day from at least five different locations to support a moon base.