Future of Civil Aviation

[uk 75]

As the world starts to travel again and a non stop London Sydney route is on the cards, what will be the future trends in civil aviation?
Boeing and Airbus seem to be the only manufacturers of mainstream passenger jets left standing. Both manufacturers rely on partners across the globe to build and equip their jets.
Whereas the old Soviet Union tried to match the full product range of airliners from western companies, neither China nor Russia seem able to do so.
It must be a blow to President Xi that he cannot arrive in style in a China 1 built by his nation. Maybe that is why he hates travel?
The twinjet in various sizes seems likely to be the airline bus for the foreseeable future.
Maybe the two podded engines will give way in time to hydrogen powered ones, but otherwise not much will look different.
Supersonic or Hypersonic travel if they materialise will be executive or business jets for a privileged few rather than the large SST/HSTs beloved of 70s artist impressions.
The heliport (a 50s invention) never overcame noise and safety issues. Technology used for drones may give them a new lease of life for skycabs or skylimos being developed using drone tech.

 

[publiusr]

Greens might be the only hope airships have. I for one would not mind seeing twinjets go extinct since they have killed quads and trijets. Serves them right. Saberjets and early MiGs looked more different than these ugly twinjets everywhere I look.

 

[Foo Fighter]

I used to go to the then "Westland heliport" in Battersea as a kid to watch the comings and goings. Still there but no control tower. These places may come into their own as depots for drone package delivery if it takes off but honestly, that will be a way off yet.

As far as commercial travel goes, it is one of the reasons that virus caused so much havoc. Do we really want to see more of the same in the future? The trend was already down to mediums with two engines and imho, this will continue into the future but how small can they go while remaining viable?

I do not see fully electric power making any real inroads, ever, just not realistic while ammonia powered aircraft will alongside other kinder fuels be the majority of traffic. Certainly for anything with a useful payload/range. Thinking hybrid, a decent size single engine running alternate fuel could possibly run enough electric power for a couple of props,

With the inflation and lack of money in many families I cannot see world travel for the masses. Gap year treks in Thailand etc would seem to be out anyway but mass holiday traffic to the usual destinations would appear to be a dead duck. This will possibly drive some of the airports for that traffic into liquidation which will affect the economies in those regions.

Potential for massive change and a loss of even more investment. What future for Boeing now?

 

[riggerrob]

" ... With the inflation and lack of money in many families I cannot see world travel for the masses. Gap year treks in Thailand etc would seem to be out anyway but mass holiday traffic to the usual destinations would appear to be a dead duck. This will possibly drive some of the airports for that traffic into liquidation which will affect the economies in those regions.

Potential for massive change and a loss of even more investment. What future for Boeing now? ... "

This makes us wonder if the State of Florida revoking Walt Disney World's "special status" is totally bad for Disney Corp. With reduced attendance and revenues, it might be to Disney's advantage to "lose" the cost of administering (paving roads, draining sewage, etc.) a special district.

This reminds the conspiracy-theorist version of my mind of the forest fires that devastated dozens of houses in Fort McMurray, Alberta. Those fires "conveniently" reduced the surplus of housing just after oil prices dropped. ????????????????

 

[Archibald]

Go suborbital instead of A350, to the other side of the world in 1 hour instead of 20 hours... very badly needed for La Réunion island, so far away from anywhere.

 

[alertken]

Post-Putin. Some of the 737/A320 competitors will now lapse- the duplicate PRCs, the Sukhoi, maybe the Mitsubishi. Pointless.
The Russia/PRC jumbo is dead.
No all-new type in 737/A320 slot. Neo/Max exist because they were Certificated as mods. Max-crash stops that, so all-new Certification would be measured in $Billions, unfinanceable due to Boeing's self-inflicted wound of the WTO Cases. All and any subsidy: Bad (Airbus' were Federal: Boeing's misguided Case assumed local City/State subsidies OK. No.) So all risk sits with commercial lenders...who will not lend...until or unless air travel acquires Green credentials.
So will non-polluting fuels displace AVTUR as quickly as the world is trying to phase out internal combustion autos? Say 30 year project?

Maybe, for <250 seats, short/medium haul: the fast turboprops and A220-321. Bigger, further...maybe a longer timeframe. But why are we Aero-centric in this? Maritime tonne-km p.a. are far greater than Air. When, not if, we solve one, we solve both. Air will then continue to co-exist with Maritime: if your need, business or leisure, is cost-driven...Maritime transport; if time-driven...Air.