Covid-19 Vaccine - Where, How & Costs

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Pfizer at current 70%ish-target vaccination rates will likely not be able to provide herd immunity against Delta without additional measures.

Of course, if it does turn out to reduce hospitalizations by a large percentage (up to 90%+), it may well be profitable to just let the virus spread, although that is not the recommended strategy... and would likely face opposition in light of last year's debacles.
 
Flyaway said:
They’ve discovered evidence of a coronavirus epidemic in east Asia 20,000 years ago, it could have been more widespread than that but they don’t have the data yet.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/25/...east-asia-20000-years-intl-hnk-scn/index.html
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It's important for people to remember (something the anti-vaxxers have deliberately distorted), that when scientists say "a coronavirus", it's like saying "a homininae". The coronavirus in this story is likely as distinct from Covid as we are from gorillas (which is more than we are from chimps, which is more than we are from Australopithecines, which is more than we are from Australopithecus, which is more than we are from archaic humans like Homo Erectus, which is more than we are from the Neanderthals and Denisovans).

You need to go six steps up our taxonomic family tree, to sub-family level, to get to the point at which we and our Homininae relatives are as broad a grouping as the coronaviruses (aka the Orthocoronavirinae). The coronaviruses, in addition to SARS, MERS and Covid, cause one sixth of common colds (via at least four different species) , and infect everything from birds to whales.
 
This is fascinating article on the rather different challenges of the third wave of COVID. I hadn’t realised how much a virus like COVID can cause trouble for the vulnerable just through having a high R number rather than any particularly great immune evasion ability.

In light of everyone’s pandemic fatigue this is rather concerning conclusion. In that it boils down to how many deaths is a society willing to stomach in exchange for no restrictions.

The third wave will almost certainly look very different to before. There will inevitably be fatalities, but not of the levels of the previous two waves. As a result, some doctors feel that any decisions on re-implementing restrictions in the months to come are likely to be moral and ethical questions, rather than medical necessity.

“I think wave one, wave two, it was clear that there was a huge emerging wave of infections and hospitalisations and deaths,” says Morgan. “Now, it’s different. I don’t think these are medical decisions anymore, they are ethical, moral and societal decisions, and they have to be answered by society, governments, and ethical institutions.”
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https://www.wired.co.uk/article/covid-19-uk-third-wave
I have seen some modelling talking about by 2022 1000 unvaccinated people a day dying in the US of Covid if it continues on its current evolutionary track.
 
Flyaway said:
This small study has indicated that viral vector vaccines like the AZ & J&J ones can be used for booster shots.
"There had been some concerns that we would not be able to use this vaccine in a booster vaccination regime, and that's certainly not what the data is suggesting," study author Teresa Lambe of Oxford's Jenner Institute told Reuters.
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https://www.reuters.com/business/he...mmune-response-booster-shot-study-2021-06-28/
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...tion-uncompromised-by-gap-over-12-weeks-study
Same basic article as Flyaway's, but without the paywall/access limits.

TLDR: Preprint (ie not yet peer-reviewed) Oxford Uni study of a limited number of people who had extended gaps between AZ shots shows boosted immune responses at least as far out as a 45 week interval, and separately that a third shot more than six months after their second led to a substantial rise in antibodies.

(There's going to be an ethical question over 3rd doses when most of the rest of the world is still waiting for 1st/2nd).
 
DWG said:
TLDR: Preprint (ie not yet peer-reviewed) Oxford Uni study of a limited number of people who had extended gaps between AZ shots shows boosted immune responses at least as far out as a 45 week interval, and separately that a third shot more than six months after their second led to a substantial rise in antibodies.
Click to expand...

Thinking about it, a 45 week interval between doses strongly implies some, if not all, of these people were in the initial AZ trial cohorts. As does a six month later booster given it's only just over six months since the initial vaccinations.
 
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I'll stop just short of condemning the US media again. The following will appear cold and calculating but it is the appropriate approach. Deaths are up 14% or 15%. Well, what does that mean? 96 deaths today in the US as opposed to 90?

Just like the seasonal flu shot given every year in the U.S. So what if there is a third jab? Every year the flu virus mutates just like this one. New virus strains appear. This is not news.

The other problem is that research with this virus and its variants is ongoing. Here is the latest about the effectiveness of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...ong-lasting-protection-from-covid-19-vaccines
 
edwest2 said:
I'll stop just short of condemning the US media again. The following will appear cold and calculating but it is the appropriate approach. Deaths are up 14% or 15%. Well, what does that mean? 96 deaths today in the US as opposed to 90?

Just like the seasonal flu shot given every year in the U.S. So what if there is a third jab? Every year the flu virus mutates just like this one. New virus strains appear. This is not news.

The other problem is that research with this virus and its variants is ongoing. Here is the latest about the effectiveness of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...ong-lasting-protection-from-covid-19-vaccines
Click to expand...
The thing is variants like Delta are going to make hay with the unvaccinated in the US. This virus seems to have an unsettling ability to travel through populations to get at the vulnerable even if it has to travel through the protected. If it does turn out that even the fully vaccinated can pass on the virus, even if it doesn’t impact them at all personally that does rather alter the game.
 
Flyaway said:
edwest2 said:
I'll stop just short of condemning the US media again. The following will appear cold and calculating but it is the appropriate approach. Deaths are up 14% or 15%. Well, what does that mean? 96 deaths today in the US as opposed to 90?

Just like the seasonal flu shot given every year in the U.S. So what if there is a third jab? Every year the flu virus mutates just like this one. New virus strains appear. This is not news.

The other problem is that research with this virus and its variants is ongoing. Here is the latest about the effectiveness of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...ong-lasting-protection-from-covid-19-vaccines
Click to expand...
The thing is variants like Delta are going to make hay with the unvaccinated in the US. This virus seems to have an unsettling ability to travel through populations to get at the vulnerable even if it has to travel through the protected. If it does turn out that even the fully vaccinated can pass on the virus, even if it doesn’t impact them at all personally that does rather alter the game.
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Yes, of course. Those who will not take any vaccine will suffer. The virus is only doing what any virus does. No resistance means infection and likely death. I'd rather not see this happen but it has started.

The "game" is simple. Do I, as a doctor (which I am not), allow a patient to leave quarantine and enter the general population untreated? This is not an individual person issue like climbing Mount Everest and falling off. "Poor chap." No one else suffers from this. Viruses will always do what viruses always do. And do I, as a US citizen, do more than what I have been doing for the past 15 months? Aside from being fully vaccinated, no.
 
edwest2 said:
The freedom to go where you like needs to be balanced against the health of the area/place you are visiting. Sure, people can be left to go wherever but actions have consequences.
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It's an internal EU spat, just over UK visitors. France and Germany want to block visitors from the UK because of the Delta Covid rates here, while Greece and Portugal, not sure on Spain, want the UK tourists back. To a degree it comes down to local rates, Covid and vaccinations both, and whether you think your national health systems can cope. The logic is all smoke and mirrors anyway, Delta Covid was already on the Continent even if you had stopped every UK visitor the moment Merkel spoke up.

(It's much more significant an argument than it sounds on the surface for non-EU audiences, freedom of movement across national borders is a major principle of the EU. The UK is now out of the EU, but one or two EU countries trying to dictate the border policies of other EU nations is going to go down badly with a lot of people across the EU)
 
I follow events in the EU and UK. In my opinion, the U.S. should have imposed border checkpoints between states. Last summer, I saw license plates from as far away as California in my state, along with visitors from states designated as "hot spots." This summer, more of the same, including Washington state. Want to travel? Can't get on a plane? Then drive to wherever you want. Look what's happening in Scotland: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-57638936

"freedom of movement" in this case means ignoring a serious health threat. If it is not managed correctly then people will become ill and some will die.
 
DWG said:
Flyaway said:
This small study has indicated that viral vector vaccines like the AZ & J&J ones can be used for booster shots.
"There had been some concerns that we would not be able to use this vaccine in a booster vaccination regime, and that's certainly not what the data is suggesting," study author Teresa Lambe of Oxford's Jenner Institute told Reuters.
Click to expand...
https://www.reuters.com/business/he...mmune-response-booster-shot-study-2021-06-28/
Click to expand...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...tion-uncompromised-by-gap-over-12-weeks-study
Same basic article as Flyaway's, but without the paywall/access limits.

TLDR: Preprint (ie not yet peer-reviewed) Oxford Uni study of a limited number of people who had extended gaps between AZ shots shows boosted immune responses at least as far out as a 45 week interval, and separately that a third shot more than six months after their second led to a substantial rise in antibodies.
Click to expand...

The article's now been modified with further news from Oxford - a preprint in the Lancet - results are in from mixing AZ and Pfizer, and they're weird. AZ then Pfizer, or Pfizer then AZ, are both better than 2xAZ, but AZ then Pfizer is significantly better than Pfizer then AZ, and almost as good as 2x Pfizer. These are based on a four week interval between doses, results from a 12 week interval, which tends to boost the AZ response, are due next month.
 
DWG said:
DWG said:
TLDR: Preprint (ie not yet peer-reviewed) Oxford Uni study of a limited number of people who had extended gaps between AZ shots shows boosted immune responses at least as far out as a 45 week interval, and separately that a third shot more than six months after their second led to a substantial rise in antibodies.
Click to expand...

Thinking about it, a 45 week interval between doses strongly implies some, if not all, of these people were in the initial AZ trial cohorts. As does a six month later booster given it's only just over six months since the initial vaccinations.
Click to expand...

A friend tracked the paper down, the subjects were initially in a single dose trial, but when AZ showed good results with long intervals between doses they split them so one group stayed single dose and the others got a second dose after even longer intervals.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3873839
 
Flyaway said:
Does anyone think it’s getting to stage with the emergence of the Delta variant that if your wilfully not getting vaccinated you’re effectively playing definite Russian roulette with your life especially if aged 50 or above?

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/29/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html
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Does anyone think? Opinions don't matter. It's obvious: Not fully vaccinated and your chances of ending up in the hospital increase with age and number of medical conditions. And with some people thinking they can go wherever now that they're vaccinated - and a few who think 'nothing bad is going to happen to me' - then you'll get outbreaks here and there - as predicted. And those people sneaking into other countries, travel ban or no? It will not go well, definitely not. And they better start offering shots to people under 16 soon.
 
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