The bigger problem with the MQ-28 is that the wing spar likely sits over the engine inlet duct.
And... why would this be the conclusion for a subsonic CCA? F-35 inlet ducts are already have pretty steep curvature. For a subsonic CCA, the ducting is likely as curved. This is even more the case for a single engine design.

Furthermore, Id be surprised if the MQ-28's conceptualization and design didnt include viable arrangements for two internal bays for AAMs from the very beginning - even if the first iteration did not have it. A lot of these systems are built now with upgrades in mind. It makes zero sense to posses the LO features it has without an external carry option. If that were the original intent, that is to carry external only, why not go with your typical YFQ-42 glorified cruise missile design?
 
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The even bigger problem with MQ-28 (which applies to all CCAs) is cost. A De Welt article revealed this week that Germany was quoted €800M for a squadron of 12 MQ-28s. That’s for a subsonic vector with limited capability…
I mean they aren't produced in mass also is it specified which Block?
In fact it appears (according to the same article) that none of the CCA designs met German requirements!
Wonder what These are but then again this article from Handelsblatt indicates that they want 500 till 2029 and they need a range of 1000km. Atleast the former seems very very hard to achieve
Now early days and all, and perhaps they have a path to cutting costs by 50% or 75%… but I’m still surprised the rice was so high.
No the rice didn't make it expensive ;) /j
But again question would be what typ of MQ-28s as well as what this package actualy includes but it doesnt seems to mutch considering that the initial 10 (and the rest of the programm) where roughly 600 Million around 2022?
 
CCA's in the $15-30 Million fly-away cost are quite affordable. That seems to be the sweet spot for the larger IWB equipped systems. If those costs can be achieved. With sixth gen aircraft expected to have a fly-away cost exceeding $200 M, and F-35 already at around $100 M in inflation adjusted block 4 costs, that's a good order of magnitude cheaper per unit and a lot cheaper over the life cycle.
 
None of these CCAs are "cheap"

I think we would have to define “cheap” and we would need a full rate production cost number to go with it. Most reports seem to imply the YFQ-42/44 will be inside the previously stated envelope of “1/3 - 1/4” the cost of an F-35 as Roper suggested (or less). I personally consider that cheap, though that does not automatically mean cost effective or even useful, in and of itself.
 
None of these CCAs are "cheap"
A completely unstealthy, prop-powered Reaper is $15mil for the airframe, and a freaking Tomahawk is 5mil. Crud, I bet that the AIM-260 is more than 5mil!

You're not getting a 5mil stealthy jet-powered CCA.



Most reports seem to imply the YFQ-42/44 will be inside the previously stated envelope of “1/3 - 1/4” the cost of an F-35 as Roper suggested (or less).
Which puts us in the 25-35mil range.

Also, note that the F-16V Block 70/72 flyaway cost runs about 60mil (estimates from 43 to 70).

Does "half the cost of a 50yo fighter" work for you?
 
Yes, it does, and Block 70 is hardly a 50 year old fighter.
 
I don't know what the Block 70 F-16 has to do with CCA cost. No CCA is envisioned to be that heavy, complex or include mission systems of the cost / quality of what the F-16 block 70 carries. Look at the bare bone T-7 trainer. The FY-27 air vehicle cost is around $16 Million and that is not even at full rate production. CCA air vehicle w/o mission systems could be cheaper for the simpler increment 1 variants.
 
I don't know what the Block 70 F-16 has to do with CCA cost.
It's a yardstick to compare non-stealthy airframe costs against. That's it.

Remember, the old yardstick was 1/4 to 1/3 the cost of an F-35. A complaint was raised that the F-35 was expensive at ~100mil each, so I selected a new yardstick that conveniently makes it sound like the CCA is a lot cheaper than it actually is.


No CCA is envisioned to be that heavy, complex or include mission systems of the cost / quality of what the F-16 block 70 carries. Look at the bare bone T-7 trainer. The FY-27 air vehicle cost is around $16 Million and that is not even at full rate production. CCA air vehicle w/o mission systems could be cheaper for the simpler increment 1 variants.
CCAs will need sensors to look for targets for their controller aircraft. That means either IRST or EOTS at a minimum, maybe both, and possibly including a radar as well.

As well as an airframe that is most of the size of an F-16, if we're talking a supersonic CCA.
 
It's a yardstick to compare non-stealthy airframe costs against. That's it.
No it really is not. CCA are not that heavy, or complex, or require the amount of man hours needed to build the F-16. Same applies to propulsion etc.
CCAs will need sensors to look for targets for their controller aircraft. That means either IRST or EOTS at a minimum, maybe both, and possibly including a radar as well.
CCA's will be equipped with limited capability / limited life sensor suits and not one designed to last the 8000 hr life of a medium or heavy strike fighter designed to provide the maximum performance to the pilot flying and fighting in the machine. We already have several IR and RF products showing up that are designed to be limited life low cost systems designed to fit within the rather modest SwAPC constraints of initial CCA's. You are not stuffing those with $20+ million dollar worth of mission systems, computers and avionics that you see on a modern fighter.
 
You are not stuffing [CCAs] with $20+ million dollar worth of mission systems, computers and avionics that you see on a modern fighter.
I doubt that. I think we're going to see powerful IRSTs, top-line EOTS, and possibly downgraded radars (relative to fighters) on CCAs. We've certainly already seen ads for the radars.
 
I'd love to see how they plan to get around ITAR with that, not to mention multiplication of supply chain issues that have proven so disruptive when they involve just homegrown stuff. I'm thinking specifically of punitive tariffs affecting everything from ores to raw materials to manufactured products in different ways.
 
I doubt that. I think we're going to see powerful IRSTs, top-line EOTS, and possibly downgraded radars (relative to fighters) on CCAs. We've certainly already seen ads for the radars.

If that is the case, then the Air Force has a serious problem in what it has been communicating to industry for the last decade or so (and what the industry has in turn responded to and began to develop and demonstrate).

Being able to stuff F-16 block 70 caliber avionics into a SWaP constrained CCA will require billions if not tens of billions in RDT&E funds to make work. And the USAF would have to just live with the fact that the airframe is being designed for limited life, attritable but somehow the mission systems are being spec'd out for a fighter expected to serve decades.
 
A 1000lb bomb will fit into the same size "box" as an AMRAAM, 13.75" across.
I think the issue with that is the bay isn't necessarily a "box". As with the F-22 where they fit 6 AIM-120s but only two GBU-32s and two AIM-120s could well be the munition size is dictated by other things. You would think if a GBU-32 fit then Boeing would be claiming that.
Only a little bit, and the SDBs are dense things that don't have a lot of space for 3 dudes to hold them.
Not a super big issue though, it is still basically 6ft long.
I doubt that. I think we're going to see powerful IRSTs, top-line EOTS, and possibly downgraded radars (relative to fighters) on CCAs. We've certainly already seen ads for the radars.
In separate vehicles though. IRST on one, radar in another etc is the way I see it as it being done with MQ-28 today. Seems unlikely a single CCA is going to rock all those systems at the same time and when an individual manned fighter has four or even eight CCA it can call on then there is plenty of sensor space to go around.

I'd love to see how they plan to get around ITAR with that, not to mention multiplication of supply chain issues that have proven so disruptive when they involve just homegrown stuff. I'm thinking specifically of punitive tariffs affecting everything from ores to raw materials to manufactured products in different ways.
Per my post a couple of pages previous,

Because the airframe was initially designed in Australia without U.S. input, it was at the outset independent of International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) restrictions. However, following a 2023 agreement with the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy to collaborate on the system, ITAR-restricted technology has been introduced. This has largely been communications and weapons-related equipment. Ferguson says this has been compartmentalized, meaning it can be removed for other international sales to be free of ITAR restrictions.
https://aviationweek.com/defense/aircraft-propulsion/boeing-touts-mq-28-maturity-cca-market-develops
 
If that is the case, then the Air Force has a serious problem in what it has been communicating to industry for the last decade or so (and what the industry has in turn responded to and began to develop and demonstrate).
The USAF saying it wants one thing, then demanding something else? *gasp*

I'm about to die of not-surprise.


Being able to stuff F-16 block 70 caliber avionics into a SWaP constrained CCA will require billions if not tens of billions in RDT&E funds to make work. And the USAF would have to just live with the fact that the airframe is being designed for limited life, attritable but somehow the mission systems are being spec'd out for a fighter expected to serve decades.
Depends entirely on the size of the CCA. Who was it that was advertising a 600lb AESA for CCAs?
 
The USAF saying it wants one thing, then demanding something else? *gasp*

It could well be that the USAF says we were kidding and ask its CCA operators to equip their CCA's with F-16 Block 70 caliber mission system suits. In which case both the CCA teams would have to go back and begin working on their re-designs.

Bottom line is that if the USAF asks the CCAs to be as large, as heavy, and as complex to manufacter as the block 70 F-16 while also demanding that these be equipped with a similar class of avionics and mission systems then yes the CCA will cost pretty close to the F-16. But outside of this thread, there is absolutely no indication that the USAF intends to do any of that.

Who was it that was advertising a 600lb AESA for CCAs?
Not sure who that was. There are a few RF sensors currently being touted for CCA applications by their respective OEMs. They are in the sub 200-250 lbs class. Raytheon's smaller/lighter version of the Phantom Strike (designed for CCA's and RW aircraft) clocks in at under 150 lbs. It is air cooled. The larger version of the radar aimed at fast jets (being delivered for F/A-50s) is already expected to cost half as much as a traditional fighter AESA radar. The one aimed at competing for a CCA contract will likely come in at an even lower cost than that.
 
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It could well be that the USAF says we were kidding and ask its CCA operators to equip their CCA's with F-16 Block 70 caliber mission system suits. In which case both the CCA teams would have to go back and begin working on their re-designs.

Bottom line is that if the USAF asks the CCAs to be as large, as heavy, and as complex to manufacter as the block 70 F-16 while also demanding that these be equipped with a similar class of avionics and mission systems then yes the CCA will cost pretty close to the F-16. But outside of this thread, there is absolutely no indication that the USAF intends to do any of that.
I could see taking an existing aircraft's mission/ordnance controller system entirely as-is to install on a UCAV.

Because you know it works. No fighting with spaghetti code written by an intern who is now elsewhere.

Yes, it will be a bit heavier, but look at our Friend the F-16 in terms of pylons. 4 wing pylons per side, 3 fuselage pylons, and 2 of those fuselage pylons are configured for sensors, not ordnance. Next, let's look at typical F-16 loads. 3 external fuel tanks, LANTIRN pods, 2x AMRAAMs, 2x Sidewinders, and 2x 1000lb JDAMs.

If the Block 70 mission system can handle multiple missiles on each pylon, then it may actually be viable for something like a Reaper drone.



Not sure who that was. There are two primary RF sensors currently being touted for CCA applications by their respective OEMs. Both are in the sub 200 lbs class. Raytheon's smaller/lighter version of the Phantom Strike (designed for CCA's and RW aircraft) clocks in at under 150 lbs. The larger version of the radar aimed at fast jets (being delivered for F/A-50s) is already expected to cost half as much as a traditional fighter AESA radar.
Ah, it was Phantom Strike I was thinking of.
 
I could see..

You may. But the USAF has not mandated that or signaled any intention of doing so. When they do, you can compare the cost of this hypothetical missionized exquisite CCA to the F-16 block 70.

Ah, it was Phantom Strike I was thinking of.

Phantom Strike (CCA) at sub-150 lbs so < 1/4 the weight you had mentioned.

The larger fast-jet variant of the Phantom Strike (being produced for Poland) is already expected to be half the cost of a traditional fighter AESA radar (SABR runs about $3 MM a pop so you are looking at < $1.5 Million already and that's for the larger version).

We see a similar trend in lower cost IR sensors. Both Lockheed and Anduril have options there at a far lower cost and SWaPC than something like a targeting pod, or traditional fighter IRST sensor. No one in their right mind are going to approach missionizing a CCA the same as a F-16 or F-35. That runs contrary to the entire approach of a low-cost missionized adjunct that has driven the ACP and CCA efforts since their very inception.

Mission computers, mission autonomy, and sensor integration on CCAs are all being handled via the MOSA and GRA approach that has been in place since the very begining. They are not porting over decades old legacy HW and SW integration architectures from the F-15 or F-16 programs. And neither do they intend on doing that for sensors.
 
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I think it is the support for sovereign capability that is the highlight of the MQ-28 not that it is designed under Boeing Australia vs Boeing US. Boeing is willing to offer sovereign integration of computing and mission system architectures, sensors, weapons, and autonomy while allowing users to develop their sovereign MQ-28 capability in house to an extent. This is not unique to the MQ-28 as General Atomics (and I'm sure Anduril as well) and Kratos also offer this but given close alignment of those efforts to the USAF / USN programs Boeing likely has more autonomy, and less restrictions to work with allies.
 
I doubt that. I think we're going to see powerful IRSTs, top-line EOTS, and possibly downgraded radars (relative to fighters) on CCAs. We've certainly already seen ads for the radars.
I could see these being FPV-optional.
 
Because Boeing Australia is doing MQ-28 in Australia rather than USA
MQ-28 is not an Australian only endeavor.

@Scott Kenny To add to what bring_it_on was saying, I'm of the opinion that the sensor suites being procured for CCAs speak to the following three things:
1. The current state of combat aircraft autonomy
2. Currently acceptable risk thanks to where the autonomy is
3. Planned means of deployment

The impression that I've got regarding combat aircraft autonomy currently is that many leaders know that it is important, but exactly what can be done with it and how precisely it is best used is going to remain unclear until the first increment 1 CCAs reach the Test and Eval squadrons and new tactics begin to be developed and implemented. Meanwhile, what we can learn through simulations is possibly what is being used to inform increment 2, which opened the floor to both higher end and lower end CCAs.

We also continue to be risk averse in tech development. Contrary to other places, much of new technology is matured as plugins to existing systems before a fully functional all new piece of tech is built. I would say that autonomy itself is not mature enough yet as a technology to warrant that investment. It's not necessarily because the autonomy software and algorithms isn't there. Instead, its because the tactics, operating experience and best use cases have yet to take shape. I would expect that once the feedback from operational usage of increment 1 gets solidified and the list of "would like to haves" begin to change, there will be major design changes informing the next family of CCAs (not necessarily Inc2 though). I wouldn't say it's trivial to design a full fighter sized wingman drone, and it's certainly what could have been done right off the bat, but until we really begin to evaluate and understand how wingmen drones are to be used, procuring fighter sized CCAs does not tangibly bring better results to the force while still extracting a hefty maintenance cost.

Speaking of usage, the current operational concept is about omnipresence inside a battle space. In one of the other threads, someone posted a what-if image of how J-36s could be used to fight B-21s, and one of the excerpts comically draws a detection bubble from a CCA and wrote "inadequate detection range" on it. Thing is - you don't necessarily need to be the emitter to be the dectector. Hell - you may not even need a radar to receive multistatic returns coming back from the target after being illuminated by something else. It is possible to have an emitter illuminate the location of a target with a small radar and still have enough energy be reflected off to a bad angle, where another CCA with a sufficient RF receiver could catch the target at said bad angle and start a IR track. How practical is it and how multistatic radar technology could be turned into real tactics and produce real results is probably less well known until test and eval does their work. It could also be possible that once those results come back around, the operational concept could either lean further into that idea or we could certainly go back to larger more capable concepts.

It's not to say that larger and more capable concepts aren't being investigated either. If I recall correctly @bring_it_on said before that larger and more capable concepts are being worked on. However, again - developing the large and complex CCA shouldn't be a challenge to any of the primes. People might laugh, but the MQ-25 is actually larger than an F-16 size wise. If not for it's inherent role as a tanker and ISR platform, it could certainly have been a "fighter sized CCA". The question isn't "why don't we have this" or "why aren't we going in that direction". The questions are do we actually need it? and exactly what do we need from it?
 
CCAs are cost effective adjuncts that aid manned fifth and sixth generation fighters. These are envisionied as semi-autonomous adjuncts. They are not designed to be stand-alone autonomous UCAV's. This is the fundamental different in approach from the current Increment 1-3 CCA and what Shield AI is proposing with its X-BAT which is a fighter sized autonomous UCAV. Having a CCA program does not take away from the need for also having autonomous UAV's and UCAV programs and platforms. But the CCA program is not responsible for creating that autonomous UAV or UCAV. It has a very specific mandate and all the R&D, test and evaluation and training and doctrinal aspects of the effort are focused on delivering that. Perhaps it will someday merge into a larger autonomous UCAV program but for now that is not the focus and that is unlikely to change in the near to medium term given the push to field a few hundred of these rapidly.
 
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Since I think people aren't understanding why I'm being pushy about the CCA sensors:

CCAs are all supposed to be extra sensor nodes in the network. To me this says that they will at least have a passive IRST for air search, and if the CCA is capable of carrying air to ground ordnance it will have an EOTS as well as the IRST. Because EOTS need a different field of view as compared to an IRST.

Adding Phantom Strike radars is likely IMO, since an AESA also has defensive ECM uses in addition to basic air-and-surface search. Targeted jamming (in X-band in this case, other AESAs in whatever band(s) the radar can emit).

And this doesn't include any DAS like the F-35 has, since plane directors are supposed to stand where the "pilot" can see them which means visible to the IRST/EOTS. But having a DAS to help watch where the Yellow Shirts are waving you is very useful.
 
MQ-28 is not an Australian only endeavor.
Well no because they've sourced major components from overseas, like many other aircraft projects. I'm not sure this particularly makes it less Australian. e.g. No one's claiming Gripen is American just because it's got an American engine. Etc. etc.

The design team and (current) manufacturing facility for MQ-28 is definitely in Australia.
 
Since I think people aren't understanding why I'm being pushy about the CCA sensors:

CCAs are all supposed to be extra sensor nodes in the network. To me this says that they will at least have a passive IRST for air search, and if the CCA is capable of carrying air to ground ordnance it will have an EOTS as well as the IRST. Because EOTS need a different field of view as compared to an IRST.

Adding Phantom Strike radars is likely IMO, since an AESA also has defensive ECM uses in addition to basic air-and-surface search. Targeted jamming (in X-band in this case, other AESAs in whatever band(s) the radar can emit).

And this doesn't include any DAS like the F-35 has, since plane directors are supposed to stand where the "pilot" can see them which means visible to the IRST/EOTS. But having a DAS to help watch where the Yellow Shirts are waving you is very useful.

I suspect CCAs will have all those ingredients, even the radar, because there are radars available for that SWaPC and because as you note, any AESA radar is a jammer and an ESM system within its frequency range, given the right software. And I expect that a really big part of the CCA mission will be finding and fixing the enemy (while concealing friendly aircraft with ECM), even if that means making the opposing target fire first: think of it as a Wild Weasel or armored cav. Making the opponent fire almost certainly gives his position away to every IRST in a hundred miles, even if the aircraft itself is not detected.

I think a DAS like system is an absolute requirement just to keep CCAs from running into things, even if it is not a primary initial detection sensor. I also suspect some kind of long range IRST is fitted assuming the DAS like system does not already fulfill that function.

That said, clearly those sensors are not going to be of the highest caliber, do to cost and platform limitations. They don’t have to be: if the targets are full sized, they are probably going to have greater IR signatures anyway. They certainly will if they afterburn. And if they detect a CCA, they probably have to fire at some point, since the CCA is armed.

That’s a a complicated tactical situation for manned aircraft or for UAVs with manned aircraft like costs: shoot the cheap drone and give yourself away, and likely *also* take counter fire from said drone (it maybe outside NEZ range but you still have to maneuver or else blunder into it, and reheat and flight path changes create much bigger signatures) that has been fed triangulation IR info of your missile launch, or ignore it and just fall further and further into its envelope. This gets worse if there are lower level drones that are only ESM or IR sensor nodes, or possibly just disposable launch canisters for AAMs. Now add in an NGAD level MALD that receives updates from the CCA agent…the CCAs themselves might launch these as external ordinance and close with internal AAMs.

The goal is not for every component of NGAD to have the maximal detection range. The goal is for there to be so many sensors, decoys, and firing platforms that passing through without being engaged or expending all your AAMs is impossible.

The program will be better informed when there are enough platforms to test in large numbers in more realistic scenarios. All of these attempts at automation across the globe are only going to be as good as the software that runs them. Anyone can build a jet with 4+ gen capabilities that has an auto pilot. What will differentiate the superior solution is the autonomy of the individual platform and, at a higher level, the autonomy of the larger system of systems. That software can always be transferred to a larger, faster platform if it turns out that is absolutely necessary: the USAF quite intentionally divorced the high logic software from the basic aircraft control software, making the physical platform a subject of choice.
 
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Well no because they've sourced major components from overseas.
Some components may or may not fall under ITAR restrictions. It will take some work on the buyer to replace those components.

@Scott Kenny
It's not that I disagree with which sensors go on a CCA. It's that the quality and capability of those sensors are not going to be at SABR level, much less anything higher than that. Having high end UCAV / CCAs is trivially possible, but not needed at the moment - at least until the implementations of autonomy as a whole mature more.
 
Which certainly sets CCA apart from other loyal wingmen initiatives around the globe (to which I'd count the MQ-28, S-70 and most Chinese models).

I think there's a lot of conflation regarding such UAVs and the actual CCA program in particular. With CCA having clearly stated goals and program milestones. While these other drone endeavors are developing differently.
 
Might be good to keep in mind the USAF is flying the wings off its aircraft bc it simply doesn’t have enough airframes for the missions it’s given.

CCAs obviously can address the airframe issue for certain roles, but more importantly CCAs offer a way to dramatically alter the sustainment and maintenance costs - which are far more relevant than the upfront purchase cost - in how they are designed, purchased and even used (CCA in a box until you need it, as has been pointed out by many astute and well educated posters here).

Yes Increment 1 is a learning opportunity to use CCAs to shape future operational concepts, it is by far a bigger opportunity to rethink how the USAF buys, uses and sustains those systems in a way that ultimately *must* undercut the current manned cost structure.
 
Might be good to keep in mind the USAF is flying the wings off its aircraft bc it simply doesn’t have enough airframes for the missions it’s given.

CCAs obviously can address the airframe issue for certain roles, but more importantly CCAs offer a way to dramatically alter the sustainment and maintenance costs - which are far more relevant than the upfront purchase cost - in how they are designed, purchased and even used (CCA in a box until you need it, as has been pointed out by many astute and well educated posters here).

Yes Increment 1 is a learning opportunity to use CCAs to shape future operational concepts, it is by far a bigger opportunity to rethink how the USAF buys, uses and sustains those systems in a way that ultimately *must* undercut the current manned cost structure.
You do still need a few CCAs on the ramp for your fuelers and ammo loaders etc to train on, which may or may not involve those CCAs flying later.
 
Might be good to keep in mind the USAF is flying the wings off its aircraft bc it simply doesn’t have enough airframes for the missions it’s given.

CCAs obviously can address the airframe issue for certain roles, but more importantly CCAs offer a way to dramatically alter the sustainment and maintenance costs - which are far more relevant than the upfront purchase cost - in how they are designed, purchased and even used (CCA in a box until you need it, as has been pointed out by many astute and well educated posters here).
But if USAF continues to need to fly the wings off its aircraft on missions then the CCAs can't be kept in a box? Or will the demand simply fall on the smaller crewed aircraft fleet? Unless tasking is scaled back then the CCA force will need to be deployed and flown which takes people and money. TBD how this will actually play out.
 
Might be good to keep in mind the USAF is flying the wings off its aircraft bc it simply doesn’t have enough airframes for the missions it’s given.

CCA's don't really solve for that in ways one might think. Today's missions that are driving the fighter deployments and utilizations are not all covered by the current or even next iteration of the CCA which are predominantly focused on counter air and air dominance. And allied roles. There are obviously adjacency of using the CCA approach (low cost, limited life, simple to build, GRA etc) to cover other roles such as MQ-Next where this is already being used but if you look at the strike fighter shortfall (to need) the USAF itself admits that the only viable near to medium term solution to that is to buy more strike fighters which is what it told Congress. Simply put, as a stand alone deploying/deployable asset, a multi-role strike fighter is far more useful than a CCA and will remain so for quite some time until we can reliable demonstrate an autonomous UCAV capable of performing same roles independently. I think the problem is that for many (here and elsewhere), the CCA is seen as a one stop shop for all of the AF's missions and force structure challenges. An unmanned F-16 costing 2/3 of the price of an F-16 for example. Whereas the USAF sees it as a limited capability, semi-autonomous adjunct supporting primarily (initially) in the air superiority mission allowing it to thicken the force and create dilemmas and challenges for its advesaries.
 
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sorry I thought it was obvious but maybe it’s worth pointing out there are no operational CCAs now nor any in the near future. Ergo, CCAs do nothing for today, little for tomorrow but are really about where the USAF force structure and logistics/cost base needs to evolve to in the future.

The USAF was in awful spot in terms of airframe hours (to say nothing of other issues) before 2022/10/07. It is now a dramatically worse spot, meaning that the USAF and partners now need to bring in that future force structure as much as possible as quickly as possible. But you still need 9 months or so to make a baby, as they say…
 
Other than single digit. / low double digit F-15's the USAF isn't really adding any operational strike fighter capability presently. I think that is going to be the case for the next couple of years. Things will likely start getting better from 2028 onward.
 
I'd love to see how they plan to get around ITAR with that, not to mention multiplication of supply chain issues that have proven so disruptive when they involve just homegrown stuff. I'm thinking specifically of punitive tariffs affecting everything from ores to raw materials to manufactured products in different ways.
One of the things the MQ-28 benefits from is that it has been developed in Australia outside of the ITAR bubble.
 

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