kaiserd
I really should change my personal text
- Joined
- 25 October 2013
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99 percent of the point of this deal for the Australian is the alliance with the US.Quite a lot of angst, if not butthurt in this.So now U.S.'s climate envoy USSen Kerry has waded in, seems "a bit" outside his remit. He does carry a large stockpile of weapons grade boredom though.
I sort of understand the impetus of putting this thing behind both administrations as quickly as possible but I'd vastly prefer any corrective measures to be better thought out than the actions that led to this situation, being clear about the purpose but taking one's time where one can. The French might be happy to put quite a lot of work in considering how co-operation might be improved overall, not just with regard to AUKUS but also EU's common defense angle and beyond. Now Macron sees and opening, is unsure of how long this lasts and it's a bit of bilateral this and that in a bid to position France as the pivotal continental European power.
I have a suspicion that the original mess owes a whole lot to (if not is entirely down to) U.K.'s "Global Britain" effort which really is more of an opportunistic brand in search of substance (trying to construct a half-way coherent whole of admiral Radakin's descriptions, for instance) than a policy governed by principle or measured strategy. Vacillating between "not the EU" and glomming a carrier group-ish on the U.S. Navy sailing the seven seas, the line between performative and truly perfidious pugilism in the haste for "wins" has been crossed and for no good reason as far as everyone else's interests are concerned. The recognition of that, I believe, is behind the French omitting the U.K. from immediate diplomatic measures and demands for explanations; the ramifications must vary according to how responsive or chaotic an agent is.
Perhaps the Shortfin Barracuda deal's impact might've been somewhat lost on Biden considering only the financials: While the deal's overall value was more than half of France's 2021 defense budget, it only came to 1/20th of the U.S.'s (and spread out over many years as well). A POTUS, should she/he feel so inclined, has a lot on her/his plate after all. The core issue, though, is trust - something that undergirds democracy, the fungibility of money and defense agreements - and protecting and enforcing that is no mean feat of which calculations about capabilities are just a constituent part.
So Spiffing Boris persuaded Joe, and the aussies, to get into bed with him(he does have some previous on this score) and knocked up a quick nuke boat or 8, in one night?
I think, that maybe, the fact that the aussies couldnt get all the bits they wanted into a diesel boat, no matter how they asked, made them realise they needed a Nuke, and the french nuke needs refuelling, while the US and British boats dont.
Also France is pretty non-interventionist, especially with China, which is exactly the opposite of what Aus was looking for.
Also UK broke free of EU, and is now free to do what it wants, including deals with US and Aus, at the drop of a hat. Sorry about that.
The UK will be a welcome fellow traveler from an Australian perspective and I’m sure there was a be considerable amount of technological and officer exchange etc. (especially initially) though probably much less than there will be with the US (the Australians will want and need as much exposure and access to nuclear boats and their operation, and to gain from the UKs experience of having such a close but very much junior partnership with the US in this area). Just as the French ultimately got declined in favour of the US the Australians would have have zero interest in this arrangement if it wasn’t focused on the US; the UK’s involvement is a nice little extra nostalgic bonus from an Australian perspective but is likely of increasingly marginal significance (particularly medium to long term once the Australians have built up their own experience and expertise).
And rest assured the UK’s involvement is likely to have barely registered with and have relatively little impact on China.
And in the context of claims being made here it is important to note that Brexit had virtually zero impact on the UKs ability to enter (or not enter) into this arrangement.
It could have done this if it was still a member of the EU, EU membership was not a same significant impediment to doing such a arrangement.The French did their deal with the Australians while being a member of the EU and could have done a deal for nuclear instead conventional subs irrespective of their EU membership.
Presenting this deal as some kind of Brexit dividend is utterly counter-factual.