Boeing F-47 NGAD - Speculation and Theories

willian4577 said:
My speculation of the possible F-47 seen in the Boeing Phantom Works patch.

I think it will be a merger between YF-118 Bird of Prey and X-36.
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Pretty sure V
willian4577 said:
My speculation of the possible F-47 seen in the Boeing Phantom Works patch.

I think it will be a merger between YF-118 Bird of Prey and X-36.
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Almost certain the patch is unrelated to NGAD.
 
SlothmanAllen said:
Oh, and you need at least 24 F-47's a year when China is building something like 100 J-20's per year, along with whatever number of J-35 and J-16.
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By the time the notional 24 F-47 per year is reached China should be churning out at a minimum say 24 each of the J-36 and J-50 per year. To not reach even that minimum production by then means the chinese screwed up badly somehow. J-35 and J-20 production is still expected in that timeframe, but J-16 would have long been phased out of it.
 
lancer21 said:
By the time the notional 24 F-47 per year is reached China should be churning out at a minimum say 24 each of the J-36 and J-50 per year. To not reach even that minimum production by then means the chinese screwed up badly somehow. J-35 and J-20 production is still expected in that timeframe, but J-16 would have long been phased out of it.
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By the time the notional 24 J-36 and J-50 per year is reached Boeing and Lockheed will be churning out 24 F-47 and NGAD derivatives each quarter.
 
bring_it_on said:
By the time the notional 24 J-36 and J-50 per year is reached Boeing and Lockheed will be churning out 24 F-47 and NGAD derivatives each quarter.
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Given the glacial pace in the US, I think calling this assumption extremely optimistic is a colossal understatement.

It's should be rather clear that the Chinese designs are not only further along, but also that China scales production quicker than the US does. So if they, based on the assumption above, enter service before the F-47 they will also see increased production output quicker.

I'd say the chinese will be the first, then the F-47, then GCAP, then the Navy NGAD/F/A-XX, then FCAS if it's still around trailed by a Russian development. With the last two we're firmly in the early 2040s.
 
Lepespi said:
what did you see to say this??? damn I thought P&W was ahead in development (solely because they post more about it)
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A bit of rumor-mill but, from a few reputable sources. I can’t glean much more right now. Sounds like it should be very apparent sooner than (the traditional) much later. Possibly Q1 2026.
 
Originally asked in another thread but moved here:

Any hot takes on the Boeing CEO “not touching” the 2028 first flight goal stated by the USAF?

Relatedly, I’m probably less interested in the first flight of the F-47 vs when the fancy new shed in St Louis begins to spit out flight test aircraft.

Was it @joshjosh that was keeping overhead watch on this site?
 
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Training_Dummy said:
Originally asked in another thread but moved here:

Any hot takes on the Boeing CEO “not touching” the 2028 first flight goal stated by the USAF?

Relatedly, I’m probably less interested in the first flight of the F-47 vs when the fancy new shed in St Louis begins to spit out flight test aircraft.

Was it @joshjosh that was keeping overhead watch on this sight?
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Yeah that's me. Although to be honest, I'm just searching for my keys under the street lamp. Satellite photos are available so I look at them. The interesting parts of the St. Louis facility can't be seen on satellite. The tooling and interior fit out will take longer than the exterior structure. I would be shocked (pleasantly) if the advanced combat aircraft facility is spitting out airframes by 2028.

As to the CEO's "no comment," I can't imagine that's a good sign. Let's imagine that the 2028 first flight had been scheduled by Boeing, the system integrator who should best understand the schedule. Wouldn't they proudly tell the nation that yes, the first flight will be in 2028? Surely they would. The fact that Boeing won't stand behind those USAF comments tells me that "2028" didn't originate from Boeing.
 
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I actually "made a wrong turn" and arrived at the eastern building under construction. This was about a month ago when I went to St. Louis to try some balkan food.

1000006907.jpg

Do excuse me for not loitering because ... as far as I know, I just made a wrong turn.

There was a service vehicle just watching the one way street leading up to a packing plant sitting next to said building. I really did not want that guy to have questions...

Girlfriend was very confused and a little scared.

Also - the Cevapi at Balkan Treat Box is amazing. Highly recommend.
 
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Training_Dummy said:
Any hot takes on the Boeing CEO “not touching” the 2028 first flight goal stated by the USAF?
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It means that this schedule cannot be met. I understood it as the USAF being overly optimistic and Boeing trying to diplomatically temper the expectations afterwards.

The results of a nation that's unable to whip it's military industry into shape and produce results on time.
 
Reddington777 said:
View attachment 792780

From the general dynamics twitter post about an UWB FSS radome. I know this is just CGI but it does show LE arrays here and.... whatever the hell a spinal array is for (rear facing?)
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Satellite comms and whatever else can be squeezed through that aperture. I'd bet there's a matching one on the belly for other radio signals.
 
EmoBirb said:
It means that this schedule cannot be met. I understood it as the USAF being overly optimistic and Boeing trying to diplomatically temper the expectations afterwards.

The results of a nation that's unable to whip it's military industry into shape and produce results on time.
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Maybe this is overly optimistic but typically the wording when a schedule is slipping sounds like
“Congressional marks and continuing resolutions”, “Deferral of capability” ,“Discovery during developmental testing”, “Schedule adjustments to ensure technical maturity” ect. ect.- and at the end he said "we're in a good spot". I am still not convinced of boeing being go-getters, but its food for thought nonetheless.
 
Reddington777 said:
View attachment 792780

I know this is just CGI but it does show LE arrays here and....
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The leading edge will be L band radar arrays. This is critical for stealth versus stealth engagement. The Russians were the first to think of this as they needed a way to combat the US stealth advantage.

joshjosh said:
96 F-47s and derivatives per year? At $300M per, $29B in procurement per year? Seems a bit high...
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If we combine the USAF 6th gen requirement and the US Navy 6th requirements I could easily see 96 aircraft per year. I would also add whatever secret aircraft the Skunk Works is building to that list of 6th gen aircraft.

The USAF wants ~200 F-22 replacements and has suggested increase that number with a reduction in F-35A. The US Navy needs 600+ 6th gen aircraft so that puts the order book above 1000 aircraft. Then we have potential export to countries like Australia and the risk of the other 6th gen programs collapsing causing other countries to order a US 6th gen aircraft.
 
insidersource said:
The USAF wants ~200 F-22 replacements and has suggested increase that number with a reduction in F-35A. The US Navy needs 600+ 6th gen aircraft so that puts the order book above 1000 aircraft. Then we have potential export to countries like Australia and the risk of the other 6th gen programs collapsing causing other countries to order a US 6th gen aircraft.
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Where are you getting 600+ FAXX?

12 carrier air wings. 24 birds per wing. 288 birds. might make 350 or 400 total.
 
Reddington777 said:
View attachment 792780

From the general dynamics twitter post about an UWB FSS radome. I know this is just CGI but it does show LE arrays here and.... whatever the hell a spinal array is for (rear facing?)
Click to expand...
My guess is that instead of having a huge rectangular array in the lower bands (which wouldn't fit), they have 2 arrays in the horizontal plane, with good horizontal, but poor vertical resolution, and a vertical one, working as a radar altimeters. Putting the 2 1-dimensional (or at least heavily biased) radar pics together, you can get both the elevation and direction of the target.
Some old Soviet AA radars had (mechanically steered) antenna arrangements like that:
Radar_PRV-17_2009_G1.jpg
(And of course the famous SA-2/S-75 did as well)
1764184802714.png
 
Elysium said:
My guess is that instead of having a huge rectangular array in the lower bands (which wouldn't fit), they have 2 arrays in the horizontal plane, with good horizontal, but poor vertical resolution, and a vertical one, working as a radar altimeters. Putting the 2 1-dimensional (or at least heavily biased) radar pics together, you can get both the elevation and direction of the target.
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For the vertical one, do you mean the dorsal array? How would that help forward detection though?
 
Scott Kenny said:
Where are you getting 600+ FAXX?

12 carrier air wings. 24 birds per wing. 288 birds. might make 350 or 400 total.
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Your number assumes the F-35C delivered from 2015 will operate forever. The first F-35C will be due for replacement by 2040 and the F/A-XX will then replace those.

The US Navy has ~800 Super hornets, Growlers and F-35C in service. In 2050 I assume 600 F/A-XX and 200 drones. A 25% reduction in supersonic manned jets.
 
insidersource said:
Your number assumes the F-35C delivered from 2015 will operate forever. The first F-35C will be due for replacement by 2040 and the F/A-XX will then replace those.

The US Navy has ~800 Super hornets, Growlers and F-35C in service. In 2050 I assume 600 F/A-XX and 200 drones. A 25% reduction in supersonic manned jets.
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Nope. The F-35C built in 2015 is likely to be replaced by another F-35 (see F-16 and Super Hornet replacement), or will be replaced by drones.

FAXX is replacing Super Hornets.

Some of the carrier air wing plans posted in this very forum have shown 2 squadrons of FAXX and all the rest as drones!
 
"The Next-Generation Air Dominance fighter—once envisioned as a hyper-expensive, exquisite platform—could be restructured to slash its price to less than an F-35, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall told reporters at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber conference."(Sept. 16, 2024)
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/kendall-new-re-imagined-ngad-cost-less-f-35/

Now, 2026, is this still valid for the Boeing F-47?
 
VTOLicious said:
Now, 2026, is this still valid for the Boeing F-47?
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In 2023 there were already whispers of Boeing being more preferred and seems not to have changed much up until contract award despite all the reconsideration being made during the NGAD review (which was when Kendalls comments were made).

Given the modest numbers being procured, I think its more likely as of now that there weren't many reductions to cost and capability Before the contract was awarded.

F-35 costs was already a pipe dream let alone half its cost.
 
Given the recent progress with regards to CCA (YFQ-42, 44, 48... Inc 2 soon?), I wonder if disaggregation of capability and shifiting mission equipment to other platforms is indeed part of the concept, eventually to decrease cost of the main platform (F-47).
 

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