Dilandu
I'm dissatisfied, which means, I exist.
In late half of 1890s, there were significant tensions between Japan and USA over the Hawaii matter. Japan wasn't pleased with American-sponsored owerthrown of Hawaiian monarchy in 1893 and pro-American/anti-Japanese course of new "provisional" government. The main issue was, of course, economic; Japanese workers represented a significant part of Hawaiian plantation workforce, Japanese shipping companies made good money on Hawaii contract-labor lines. The new "constitution" of Hawaii (1894) denied Asians all voting rights, and subsequent actions of "provisional government" were aimed on blocking the Japanese workers migration.
When American annexation plans became obvious in 1897, Japan contemplated sending a naval force to Hawaii to make a point (as they done in 1893), but eventually decided that its not advisable to seek confrontation.
Alternative: Japanese Empire decided to act in 1897, and send a significant naval force - brand-new cruisers, with experienced crews from recent Sino-Japanese War - to the Hawaii, ostensibly to "protect the local Japanese population from possible consequences of American annexation". America, in turn, readied its forces on Pacific; a small squadron of cruisers and gunboats, supported by battleship "Oregon" was sent to Hawaii to "protect the expression of the will of Hawaiian peoples". And since both sides were primed for battle... it essentially became inevitable.
And Japan won. It was simply a matter of "too many advantages" vs "too many deficiences". Japanese ships, designed and partially build by first-class European shipyards, were simply better than American. Japanese quick-firing artillery was superior to American clumsy cannons (at this time, even "quick-firing" American guns were painfully slow to fire due to outdated loading procedures) by order of magnitude. And the quality of battle-proven Japanese gunners was far above American newbie sailors (the accuracy of American gunnery during Spanish-American war of 1898 was really abysmal, even against the much weaker enemy that could barely fight back at all). Finally, the Japanese tactics was better worked-out, and Japanese officers have much better experience in operating fleet units in battle.
So Dewey squadron was beaten soundly, with several cruisers sunk and the rest limping back to California in total disarray. Japanese marine forces landed on Hawaii, and very quickly the "purely spontaneous" counter-revolution restored the Hawaii monarchy.
Of course, American public opinion went furious, and demanded immediate retaliation. But American government was... less than enthusiastic about that. The Pacific Squadron was basically destroyed as fighting force; there were no ships of military value to reinfoce it quickly. And sending ships from Atlantic would require time - a lot of time. At least two (most likely, three) months would be required for any American reinforcements to reach San-Francisco. By the time any movement toward Hawaii would become possible, the Japanese forces would be so well-entrenched on islands, that defeating them would require extraordinary efforts. And with confrontation with Spain over Cuba looming on horizon, sending a significant reinforcements against Japan could be a recipy for disaster. Not to mention, American admirals were badly shaken by proven inferiority of their fleet, and now tended to overestimate both Japanese and Spanish forces hard.
The situation was finally solved by British intervention. The Britain saw advantages in denying Hawaii to American, and so acted immediately. The British fleet from China Station was dispatched to Hawaii - ostensibly, to "protect the white American population against the turmoils of revolution", but actually to put a pressure on both sides. After a series of negotiation in Hong Kong, a treaty was signed that ensured Hawaii formal independence, established constitutional monarchy with a great role of Parliament, and... provided voting rights to every citizens of Hawaii without education, property or racial limitations. Which basically means, that white Americans on Hawaii became a next-to-powerless minority.
The pill was hard to swallow, but American government was not ready to came into conflict with Britain over some tiny islands in the midst of Pacific. Especially considering the looming confrontation with Spain over the "much more valuable" Cuba. A secret agreement was reached between American and Japanese delegations in Hong Kong, that Japan would not object to potential American annexation of Philippines, and would even support the Americans in case of some other Great Power (mainly Germany, which recent advances in Pacific became a concern for both nations) trying to interfer. So two young imperialistic forces agreed on rappochment; Hawaii became part of Japanese sphere of influence, while America would took over Spanish colonial empire.
P.S. Theodore Roosevelt career would likely be ruined by such course of events. He was one of major drivers behind Hawaii annexation, and collapse of such plans would likely means collapse of his political influence also. The anti-imperialistic rhethoric of William Bryan would likely attract much more attention on 1900 elections, making McKinley victory... still possible, but not guaranteed.
When American annexation plans became obvious in 1897, Japan contemplated sending a naval force to Hawaii to make a point (as they done in 1893), but eventually decided that its not advisable to seek confrontation.
Alternative: Japanese Empire decided to act in 1897, and send a significant naval force - brand-new cruisers, with experienced crews from recent Sino-Japanese War - to the Hawaii, ostensibly to "protect the local Japanese population from possible consequences of American annexation". America, in turn, readied its forces on Pacific; a small squadron of cruisers and gunboats, supported by battleship "Oregon" was sent to Hawaii to "protect the expression of the will of Hawaiian peoples". And since both sides were primed for battle... it essentially became inevitable.
And Japan won. It was simply a matter of "too many advantages" vs "too many deficiences". Japanese ships, designed and partially build by first-class European shipyards, were simply better than American. Japanese quick-firing artillery was superior to American clumsy cannons (at this time, even "quick-firing" American guns were painfully slow to fire due to outdated loading procedures) by order of magnitude. And the quality of battle-proven Japanese gunners was far above American newbie sailors (the accuracy of American gunnery during Spanish-American war of 1898 was really abysmal, even against the much weaker enemy that could barely fight back at all). Finally, the Japanese tactics was better worked-out, and Japanese officers have much better experience in operating fleet units in battle.
So Dewey squadron was beaten soundly, with several cruisers sunk and the rest limping back to California in total disarray. Japanese marine forces landed on Hawaii, and very quickly the "purely spontaneous" counter-revolution restored the Hawaii monarchy.
Of course, American public opinion went furious, and demanded immediate retaliation. But American government was... less than enthusiastic about that. The Pacific Squadron was basically destroyed as fighting force; there were no ships of military value to reinfoce it quickly. And sending ships from Atlantic would require time - a lot of time. At least two (most likely, three) months would be required for any American reinforcements to reach San-Francisco. By the time any movement toward Hawaii would become possible, the Japanese forces would be so well-entrenched on islands, that defeating them would require extraordinary efforts. And with confrontation with Spain over Cuba looming on horizon, sending a significant reinforcements against Japan could be a recipy for disaster. Not to mention, American admirals were badly shaken by proven inferiority of their fleet, and now tended to overestimate both Japanese and Spanish forces hard.
The situation was finally solved by British intervention. The Britain saw advantages in denying Hawaii to American, and so acted immediately. The British fleet from China Station was dispatched to Hawaii - ostensibly, to "protect the white American population against the turmoils of revolution", but actually to put a pressure on both sides. After a series of negotiation in Hong Kong, a treaty was signed that ensured Hawaii formal independence, established constitutional monarchy with a great role of Parliament, and... provided voting rights to every citizens of Hawaii without education, property or racial limitations. Which basically means, that white Americans on Hawaii became a next-to-powerless minority.
The pill was hard to swallow, but American government was not ready to came into conflict with Britain over some tiny islands in the midst of Pacific. Especially considering the looming confrontation with Spain over the "much more valuable" Cuba. A secret agreement was reached between American and Japanese delegations in Hong Kong, that Japan would not object to potential American annexation of Philippines, and would even support the Americans in case of some other Great Power (mainly Germany, which recent advances in Pacific became a concern for both nations) trying to interfer. So two young imperialistic forces agreed on rappochment; Hawaii became part of Japanese sphere of influence, while America would took over Spanish colonial empire.
P.S. Theodore Roosevelt career would likely be ruined by such course of events. He was one of major drivers behind Hawaii annexation, and collapse of such plans would likely means collapse of his political influence also. The anti-imperialistic rhethoric of William Bryan would likely attract much more attention on 1900 elections, making McKinley victory... still possible, but not guaranteed.
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