The winner in this might be Lockheed Martin as they will push for advanced versions of the F35.
Since LM wont give up particular F-35 arch.. they claim as their exclusive IP the AF will now pay to rebuild portions to assure a future open arch..

LM might need more margin so certainly more advances will be proposed. & of course, they'll claims all upgrades r also proprietary so the merry goes around again.
 
Since LM wont give up particular F-35 arch.. they claim as their exclusive IP the AF will now pay to rebuild portions to assure a future open arch..

LM might need more margin so certainly more advances will be proposed. & of course, they'll claims all upgrades r also proprietary so the merry goes around again.

Yeah. Certainly Lockheed will have more leverage if the Navy shelves FA-XX as appears the case.
 
Maybe he just doesn't understand behind schedule, over budget and under performing is the Navy way!
IMO it's more an issue of the navy making up insane price and time estimates and then everyone believing them. @Phoenix_jz did some math on FFG-62 vs FREMM and iirc the USN schedule was insane but the current schedule is pretty in line with FREMM-IT timelines
 
Yeah. Certainly Lockheed will have more leverage if the Navy shelves FA-XX as appears the case.
More leverage for what? We'll still need to do this song and dance all over again to get the USN a 6th Gen. I don't see how delaying or scrapping the already late program gets the USN the capabilities they need any faster than fixing the programmatics without stopping development?
 
I don't see how delaying or scrapping the already late program gets the USN the capabilities they need any faster than fixing the programmatics without stopping development?
The navy and our problem isnt building planes its building ships, so who knows. Theres a ton of people / companies capable of building aircraft but apparrently no one knows how to manage ship programs anymore so maybe spending some time to reorganize isnt a terrible idea. One can only hope its bleed now so that things will be better later.
 
More leverage for what? We'll still need to do this song and dance all over again to get the USN a 6th Gen. I don't see how delaying or scrapping the already late program gets the USN the capabilities they need any faster than fixing the programmatics without stopping development?

LM is lobbying for more advanced versions of the F35. They are saying they can do most of what a 6th Gen can do by incorporating 6th gen technologies into the F35.

Maybe they can, maybe they can't but they will be lobbying.
 
Any F-35 with a leap in capabilities that would be important would require ACE to be relevant in the Pacific, again this being as much a reflection of space and distance, as anything else. Any other theater where China is not the opfor, F-35 is king of the hill.
 
Not to mention the whiplash priorities whenever power changes hands. Who would want to invest in overhead in those conditions? It's a "perpetually kicking the can down the road until it's the next guy's problem" situation.
There are too many problems. If we only focus on the shipbuilding industry, the US shipbuilding industry has been in obvious decline since the 1960s. But no one has thought about how to solve it. Even McNamara was able to deprive the Navy of its construction capacity and proposed a "winner takes all" procurement strategy. This is obviously an approach proposed from an economic perspective rather than an engineering perspective. The current US government can no longer implement long-term engineering projects like the "Apollo" program.
 
There are too many problems. If we only focus on the shipbuilding industry, the US shipbuilding industry has been in obvious decline since the 1960s. But no one has thought about how to solve it. Even McNamara was able to deprive the Navy of its construction capacity and proposed a "winner takes all" procurement strategy. This is obviously an approach proposed from an economic perspective rather than an engineering perspective. The current US government can no longer implement long-term engineering projects like the "Apollo" program.
Nobody sees past the next quarterly results and you can forget it if there is even a whiff of "risk" around. It's been indoctrinated into the population to the point that people deride what SpaceX is doing, because they break stuff, and forget about the payoff.
 
Nobody sees past the next quarterly results and you can forget it if there is even a whiff of "risk" around. It's been indoctrinated into the population to the point that people deride what SpaceX is doing, because they break stuff, and forget about the payoff.
Hahahaha, Chinese history is a very interesting record. Whenever a dynasty is about to fall, what you said will happen, such as the end of the Ming Dynasty and the Southern Song Dynasty. Hahahaha, Chinese history is a very interesting record. What you said happened every time a dynasty was about to fall, such as the end of the Ming Dynasty and the Southern Song Dynasty. These are the two periods that the Chinese despise most. For this reason, China has an idiom specifically describing it: literati ruin the country.
 
Any F-35 with a leap in capabilities that would be important would require ACE to be relevant in the Pacific, again this being as much a reflection of space and distance, as anything else. Any other theater where China is not the opfor, F-35 is king of the hill.
F-35 is just as constrained by space and distance in any other theater.
Just in opposite ways.
 
Are you referring to F-35i operations over Iran for the last month? If so I am missing your point.
F-35i over Iran was doing exactly what it was built for.
It can do the same over ETO or PTO. With understanding that opponents are different, and creating another day of infamy strategic surprise will likely be more difficult.

It isn't a short ranged platform, well above average in fact.

F-35 is constrained by the natural confinements of the design: it's a single engined, relatively compact strike fighter.
It's either when you need even more range, or you don't need range at all, but need something else (speed, deeper stealth, deeper/larger bay).
 
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I wasn’t as down as others of F-35 going into last months events, so perhaps I have a more sober take on the extensibility of F-35i over Iran to F-35 in the Pacific. Not that I put much stock in what this DoD, but going all in on F-47 and boosting EX buys while cutting the 35 buy, despite the TR3/Block IV finish line being in sight says something, maybe even a lot.
 
I agree with you those that criticize F-35 on range often do so in a vacuum, which is curious if not flawed outright. Yet, to me, ETO != PTO on pretty much every variable (unless you are a seaplane based Air Force lol):
 
Are you referring to F-35i operations over Iran for the last month? If so I am missing your point.
F-16 and F-15 also use aerial refueling to attack Iran. The key issue is whether the F-35's range without aerial refueling can meet the requirements of the Western Pacific.
 
The key issue is whether the F-35's range without aerial refueling can meet the requirements of the Western Pacific.
Supposedly, the FAXX range minimum was only +25% over Super Bug ranges, which is even less than F-35C strike range.

Quellish has been beating me up about that, despite how little sense that makes.
 
Supposedly, the FAXX range minimum was only +25% over Super Bug ranges, which is even less than F-35C strike range.
Its supposedly 25% more range than F/A-18E with external tanks and according to Standard Aircraft Characteristics when loaded with 1 AMRAAM, ATFLIR, 2 Sidewinders, and 2 Mk.84 2,000lb bombs and 3 480gal tanks, in hi-hi-hi profile combat radius is 660nmi which is actually very close to F-35C combat radius.
 

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Its supposedly 25% more range than F/A-18E with external tanks and according to Standard Aircraft Characteristics when loaded with 1 AMRAAM, ATFLIR, 2 Sidewinders, and 2 Mk.84 2,000lb bombs and 3 480gal tanks, in hi-hi-hi profile combat radius is 660nmi which is actually very close to F-35C combat radius.
If that's the full details, I'm MUCH better with the range. I was going 25% over no-bags range. 660x1.25=825nmi, and that's "A-6 with 4x 2000lb hi-hi-hi" range.

Also, Page 6, Loading 25?
 
Its supposedly 25% more range than F/A-18E with external tanks and according to Standard Aircraft Characteristics when loaded with 1 AMRAAM, ATFLIR, 2 Sidewinders, and 2 Mk.84 2,000lb bombs and 3 480gal tanks, in hi-hi-hi profile combat radius is 660nmi which is actually very close to F-35C combat radius.
Those F/A-18E combat radius figures are actually quite good... just go back and compare to the old F-4 Phantom SACs.

Also those are *tanks retained* (!)... drop those 3x 480 gallon tanks and I bet combat radius increases by at least 10%, maybe 15%, so closer to 750nm. (F-4 Phantom with 3 tanks had 10% more range tanks dropped vs. retained).
 
Guys I've solved it, US just has to make a deal with China and licence build the J-35 as F-55. done!
You mean like the way they licensed the use of the F-35? We should make a cheap copy of J-35, call it the F/A-18J Super Duper Hornet, and sell it for peanuts to those we won't sell the F-35 to.
 
This reminds me of how the A6M Zero was nothing more than a slavish copy of European and US fighters. Dream on.
You're the one living in a dream if you think the chinese did nothing with the terabytes of terabytes of data hacked from any number of US aerospace programs.

No need to get salty every time someone points out the truth - which is that the chinese really did copy from a number of classified US programs. They just didnt copy blindly. They took what they found was useful and adapted it for their own uses where they saw fit. Both can be true - they copied stuff and they very well did make formidable aircraft from it.

In fact, I'd even argue that the chinese lean into making things seem like they are copies. "Everything you have I also have. Everything you know I also know" is both a solid propaganda message and it keeps your opponent fearful of just how much of their programs you've compromised.
 
In Ward's video today, retired rear admiral Mike "Nasty" Manazir says "The Boeing company has enough capacity to build the F/A-XX." Every breadcrumb I've followed leads me to the conclusion that Boeing was the winner of the F/A-XX program. Phelan: "we're worried about the industry's capacity to execute on two programs." Boeing: nowhere near finished building the Advanced Combat Aircraft Facility. DOD: "we want to focus on the F-47." F-47 renders: display canards. And so on and so forth.

I've yet to find anything pointing towards Northrop Grumman for F/A-XX.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlTqa5LHUr8
 
In Ward's video today, retired rear admiral Mike "Nasty" Manazir says "The Boeing company has enough capacity to build the F/A-XX." Every breadcrumb I've followed leads me to the conclusion that Boeing was the winner of the F/A-XX program. Phelan: "we're worried about the industry's capacity to execute on two programs." Boeing: nowhere near finished building the Advanced Combat Aircraft Facility. DOD: "we want to focus on the F-47." F-47 renders: display canards. And so on and so forth.

I've yet to find anything pointing towards Northrop Grumman for F/A-XX.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlTqa5LHUr8
Thanks Josh^2 for posting this insightful and valuable interview of RADM Manazir. As the former N98, not to mention N9, he has unparalleled knowledge of intra-Navy and DoD-wide budget wars. And in his present recent role as a business development VP at Boeing, he knows exactly what was proposed for F/A-XX.

Everything he says rings true to me. Boeing was/is the F/A-XX winner, and the AF/Navy will do leader/follower to reduce Navy execution risk and possibly reduce aggregate DoD costs. I'm comfortable with that approach, with the assumption that the Navy has a plan to squeeze a few more years out of their Super Hornet fleet.

The Navy’s Fiscal Year 2026 budget proposal seeks $74 million to complete the design of F/A-XX should the administration choose to continue with the program, according to a senior defense official. https://news.usni.org/2025/06/26/fy...get-split-between-base-request-reconciliation

Keeping Boeing's preliminary design team together is important aspect of the new F/A-XX path forward. My confidence level with SECNAV Phelan has increased after watching the video.

Edit: Manazir left Boeing last December. Hmmmm.
 
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Keeping Boeing's preliminary design team together is important aspect of the new F/A-XX path forward. My confidence level with SECNAV Phelan has increased significantly after watching the video.

The problem is that if the program is shelved for even a few years, they may come back with an entirely new program, analysis of alternatives, etc. I doubt they will just pick up where they left off.
 
The problem is that if the program is shelved for even a few years, they may come back with an entirely new program, analysis of alternatives, etc. I doubt they will just pick up where they left off.
One would hope they were funding enough to keep the team intact. Letting it disperse, only to have a new group come in and pick up the pieces years down the road, would be a completely avoidable shitshow.
 
The problem is that if the program is shelved for even a few years, they may come back with an entirely new program, analysis of alternatives, etc. I doubt they will just pick up where they left off.

That's why I think it's important the design team be kept together with some effort continuing with refining the design.

Reading between the lines, I agree with those who think this situation smacks of not having confidence Boeing can move forward aggressively with two 6th Gen fighters at the same time.
 
One would hope they were funding enough to keep the team intact. Letting it disperse, only to have a new group come in and pick up the pieces years down the road, would be a completely avoidable shitshow.
I'm thinking the delays would stem more from the analysis of alternatives. "We think we can go full UCAV soon, let's wait for that." "Northrop Grumman demonstrated something interesting recently, let's look into that."
 
I'm thinking the delays would stem more from the analysis of alternatives. "We think we can go full UCAV soon, let's wait for that." "Northrop Grumman demonstrated something interesting recently, let's look into that."

Hmmmm. Interesting take. Certainly possible.
 
How would you know without looking inside?
What do you think happened then? They hacked that much data and just decided "hey lets completely disregard that and build our subsystems again using our own methods?"

Saying its a 1 to 1 copy is ofcourse not right. Denying it has copied stuff in it is just willfully ignorant.
 
I'm thinking the delays would stem more from the analysis of alternatives. "We think we can go full UCAV soon, let's wait for that." "Northrop Grumman demonstrated something interesting recently, let's look into that."
Then you run into the situation of always hoping for the next thing and never building. There will always be something newer/better/shinier.
 
Saying its a 1 to 1 copy is ofcourse not right.
Quite.
Denying it has copied stuff in it is just willfully ignorant.
But how much? How much is home grown Chinese? How much is a Chinese development of whatever was copied? How much is a straight copy of US equipment?

I don't know. Do you?
I think the PRC is by now quite capable to develop more. On its own. That will not stop them from further spying though.
 

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