Ukraine being better prepared for war past 2014

[Siberia]

Can Ukraine afford all that, plus the budget to use it hard for training in peacetime and keep it at high availability?

Depends. The budget option is standardise on the AK-74 and sell the AKMs and 7.62 ammunition to offset the cost a little, keeping track of people to try and maintain a half-decent reserve system is more of a bureaucratic issue. Scrap the T-84, most of the tank upgrades with the exception of the digital communications is domestically produced so you'll be paying in hryvnia, recover some of the costs back in taxes and help drive economic activity. Upgrade the T-64s and concentrate them in the armoured brigades, the infantry brigades and reserves can get by with T-72s. I'd still say upgrade the BMP-2s but start with the armoured brigades and then turn to the infantry ones – spread out over five or six years I think that would be doable. Whilst costing in terms of capital spend you're not increasing the number of vehicles and I don't think the new systems would be such a massive advance as to increase on-going costs excessively.

 

[Mr.T]

Whole Ukraine in NATO shenanigans are somewhat confusing for most ,as Ukraine is currently enjoying practically full Article 5 as if they were Nato member + being an EU member
Folks have a misguided idea that calling on Article 5 , means NATO automatically goes to war in full , when it was written US pushed hard so that language used does not mean they are automatically obligated to get involved in combat in Europe. Every member supports the attacked member as it sees fit in its own capacity. no one is obligated to send troops.

Ukrainian defense budget without EU and US cash, is worth grand total of about 6 billion $ +- 1billion at 4-5%GDP , pre war , post war Ukraine without foreign money can't even sustain that .

What kind of military can 6 billion per year buy?
Even without loosing huge chunk to scamers 770mio from 6billion per year.
https://babel.ua/en/news/118025-ft-...eapons-from-a-seller-linked-to-the-pmc-wagner

 

[Rule of cool]

Depends. The budget option is standardise on the AK-74 and sell the AKMs and 7.62 ammunition to offset the cost a little, keeping track of people to try and maintain a half-decent reserve system is more of a bureaucratic issue. Scrap the T-84, most of the tank upgrades with the exception of the digital communications is domestically produced so you'll be paying in hryvnia, recover some of the costs back in taxes and help drive economic activity. Upgrade the T-64s and concentrate them in the armoured brigades, the infantry brigades and reserves can get by with T-72s. I'd still say upgrade the BMP-2s but start with the armoured brigades and then turn to the infantry ones – spread out over five or six years I think that would be doable. Whilst costing in terms of capital spend you're not increasing the number of vehicles and I don't think the new systems would be such a massive advance as to increase on-going costs excessively.

Sure, but then you run into the problem that Ukraine is hopelessly corrupt. A non corrupt country could institute such a programme, making best use of the available resources, but Ukraine would see all those good intentions evaporate into dodgy people's pockets.

 

[Rule of cool]

What kind of military can 6 billion per year buy?

What's the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) number for Ukraine? After all the Ukraine isn't paying a Sergeant ~$40k per year like the US does.

The often stated line that the US spends more on the military than the next 20 odd countries combined, most of whom are allies is a misnomer. When military spending is looked at on a PPP basis the US barely outspends China and Russia combined, and when you add India to that list the US is outspent on a PPP basis.

 

[Mr.T]

What's the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) number for Ukraine? After all the Ukraine isn't paying a Sergeant ~$40k per year like the US does.

The often stated line that the US spends more on the military than the next 20 odd countries combined, most of whom are allies is a misnomer. When military spending is looked at on a PPP basis the US barely outspends China and Russia combined, and when you add India to that list the US is outspent on a PPP basis.

Neither do most european and particulary east european miltaries get wages even remotely close to US, While PPP works in some aspects like soldiers wages in terms of gear its often not quite linear.First there are foreign components and systems paid in prices higher than what US pays for them domestically and then there are economies of scale. F35 production for example is so streamlined that there are much less manhours involved into every jet asuming same complexity and baseline than in russia or china so some of that PPP is lost be being less efficient , Same goes for European production of jets like EF2000 or tanks like Leopard these are practicaly hand built ,lower wages in Europe do not end up making product cheaper, Ukraine trying to manufacture everything domesticaly will not be very efficient while manual labor is cheap material and tech imputs might not be .Besides economy so flush with foreign funds and low on manpower is not contusive to low cost labor in future. That one billion a piece Patriot is still one billion $ a piece.

In any case GDP to PPP factor today is cca 3.45 , so those 6billon $ , are 20.7billion $ PPP

 

[Siberia]

Sure, but then you run into the problem that Ukraine is hopelessly corrupt.

By that argument what's the point on the thread then? If the country is hopelessly corrupt with defence spending being looted then nothing can be achieved.

 

[Arjen]

Makes you wonder why the war is still going on.

 

[Rule of cool]

By that argument what's the point on the thread then? If the country is hopelessly corrupt with defence spending being looted then nothing can be achieved.

Russia is also hopelessly corrupt, so it evens out.

However at its heart for the Ukraine to credibly defend itself it has to be better one for one than Russia, all across the board, so their quality can be used against Russian quantity. Before trying to get more kit Ukraine should put all its efforts into beating corruption, this will give the military a boost as a by-product.

 

[Rule of cool]

Neither do most european and particulary east european miltaries get wages even remotely close to US, While PPP works in some aspects like soldiers wages in terms of gear its often not quite linear.First there are foreign components and systems paid in prices higher than what US pays for them domestically and then there are economies of scale. F35 production for example is so streamlined that there are much less manhours involved into every jet asuming same complexity and baseline than in russia or china so some of that PPP is lost be being less efficient , Same goes for European production of jets like EF2000 or tanks like Leopard these are practicaly hand built ,lower wages in Europe do not end up making product cheaper, Ukraine trying to manufacture everything domesticaly will not be very efficient while manual labor is cheap material and tech imputs might not be .Besides economy so flush with foreign funds and low on manpower is not contusive to low cost labor in future. That one billion a piece Patriot is still one billion $ a piece.

In any case GDP to PPP factor today is cca 3.45 , so those 6billon $ , are 20.7billion $ PPP

There isn't a direct correlation with PPP, but it does throw out the general rule of thumb that 1/3 of the budget is spent on capital equipment, 1/3 on personnel and 1/3 on sustainment. When buying cheap Russian gear USD $2 billion for capital equipment doesn't look too bad. However, the 3 45 PPP factor means if Ukraine wanted to wanted to buy expensive western gear it could have a smaller overall defence personnel number and devote maybe USD $3 billion budget to capital equipment, which closes the gap a bit.

 

[TsrJoe]

By that argument what's the point on the thread then? If the country is hopelessly corrupt with defence spending being looted then nothing can be achieved.

exactly my thinking too

 

[Hood]

Spoiler alert. Every country is corrupt. All humans are corruptible.
Anyone who thinks that no defence money gets skimmed off in Western Europe, USA or China is naively optimistic.

Western kit is pricey, but there is always some surplus or retired kit to be picked up.

 

[Rule of cool]

Spoiler alert. Every country is corrupt. All humans are corruptible.
Anyone who thinks that no defence money gets skimmed off in Western Europe, USA or China is naively optimistic.

Western kit is pricey, but there is always some surplus or retired kit to be picked up.

There's a big difference between countries that are fundamentally corrupt and those that aren't. When looking for a magic bullet for the Ukraine corruption is it, reduce that and all sorts of better result occur.

I agree that with X or Y kit and good training that Ukraine would have been better prepared for the Russian invasion, for example a wing of the latest spec Typhoons could have worked miracles in 2022. That doesn't mean Ukraine can put together a shopping list and set up some courses to get there the way somewhere like New Zealand or Canada could in the same situation. Sadly, Ukraine can't reach those goals without excessive effort due to the weakening effect of everyone taking their slice off the top.

 

[Pioneer]

Ukraine being better prepared Post-2014?

When one considers the extent of:
-U.S./NATO/Australia training of Ukrainian military Post-2014;
-the unprecedented amount of ISR which is being given to Ukrainian operations (including real-time satellite, ELINT & AWACS/AEW), to say nothing of targeting U.S./NATO state-of-the-weapons....;
-the proactive involvement of U.S./NATO Special Forces;
-the unprecedented amount of state-of-the-art arms/weapons, ammunition.......;
-the unprecedented political support given in terms of geopolitics, EU, UN, .......
-the unprecedented use of economics sanctions......
-the unprecedented money given to Ukraine...

I don't know.....

Regards
Pioneer

 

[tomo pauk]

-the unprecedented amount of ISR which is being given to Ukrainian operations (including real-time satellite, ELINT & AWACS/AEW), to say nothing of targeting U.S./NATO state-of-the-weapons....;
-the proactive involvement of U.S./NATO Special Forces;
-the unprecedented amount of state-of-the-art arms/weapons, ammunition.......;
-the unprecedented political support given in terms of geopolitics, EU, UN, .......
-the unprecedented use of economics sanctions......
-the unprecedented money given to Ukraine...

Between 2014 and the end of 2021?
I don't think so.

 

[Pioneer]

Between 2014 and the end of 2021?
I don't think so.

The question is

Ukraine being better prepared for war past 2014​

So what I am saying is that Ukraine for the time period couldn't have trained to the extent of what the U.S./NATO/EU in fact provided, once the conflict started.
So, are you implying that U.S./NATO didn't supply large sums of money, equipped and training to Ukraine? That MI6 and the CIA didn't establish bases, networking and training in Ukraine Post-2014?

I guess the U.S./NATO could have supplied the likes of F-16, Typhoon's, Rafael's and MBT's like the Abrams', Challenger 2's and Leopard 2's from 2014. But the U.S./NATO explicitly knew and appreciated that such advanced weapons would not just be provocative, but also such weapons platforms were beyond the capabilities of Ukrainians, without personal Western military and corporate specialist support.
I think it's also been demonstrated that in the wet-season, the behemoth 70+ ton Western MBT's aren't well suited, as would be demonstrated....

I think as much as it's seen profitable by most U.S./NATO politicians and corporations to send and demonstrate their state-of-the-art weapons platforms to Ukraine. I'm sure there's a lot of Brass in U.S./NATO militaries that realistically knew and appreciated that their employment in one of the most corrupt countries on the planet would have led to that technology landing in the hands of non-desirables and in time of battle, into the hands of the Russians.

Regards
Pioneer

 

[tomo pauk]

So, are you implying that U.S./NATO didn't supply large sums of money, equipped and training to Ukraine?

'Supplying of large sums of money' is very different to 'the unprecedented money given'.

That I'm not implying, but claim as a fact.

I guess the U.S./NATO could have supplied the likes of F-16, Typhoon's, Rafael's and MBT's like the Abrams', Challenger 2's and Leopard 2's from 2014.

IOW, the claim of 'the unprecedented amount of state-of-the-art arms/weapons, ammunition.......' is not anymore.

I think it's also been demonstrated that in the wet-season, the behemoth 70+ ton Western MBT's aren't well suited, as would be demonstrated....

West can start out with the 55 ton Leo 2A4 and the early M1s.

 

[slroger]

A certain retired US colonel(Col. TX Hammes ) had advised Ukraine around 2020 iirc to focus on a porcupine defence. Mobilize over 1 million cheap drones, and mobilize the whole population to become a country that a larger enemy cannot swallow. Mass the frontlines with cheap but smart sensors. Very few people were so clear eyed about how impactful cheap quadcopter drones would be in future wars as he was before 2022. I listened to him since 2016 because from my informatics background what he said made sense to me. Smarter cheaper systems even when smaller can defeat larger expensive systems. Its all about intelligence at the end of the day. How smart and efficient are your weapons, and can you mass them to create an advantage? Essentially force multipliers.

So biggest issue before the full scale invasion is the Zelensky administration lacked(and still lacks) a national full mobilization plan for countering a possible full scale invasion/occupation. Ukrainian society seems to have picked up this imbalance with a more grass roots bottom up approach where they mobilize themselves(creating volunteer drone manufacturing groups for example) but top down from the government lacks a proper national resistance platform that pulls every resource into the war. On the positive side the government has a good track record of supporting its core armed forces. Ukrainian S-300s, Buks, Osas, T-64s etc were generally better maintained from my observations. I remember seeing modern electronic orbats displayed on android tables inside a Ukrainian Osa for example. So the active Ukrainian military had on average an early qualitative advantage compared to the Russians in some military equipment despite Russian advantages in numbers. And Zaluzhnyi was more open in letting lower level commanders take the initiative which enabled Ukrainian military commanders to surprise and outmaneuver Russian military early on. So the active armed forces performed well against the Russian military and managed to kick them out of most of the territory. They won asymmetrically in a conventional fight between two militaries with largely the same equipment. In doing so defeated Russia's strategic goals. But weapons and tactics evolve. By not fully flushing out the enemy Russia was given time to adapt and incorporate some the drone tactics into its military. I recall Gen Patreaus clearly stating in mid 2022 that Russia would adapt if given time. You can see in some regards the Russians have pioneered wired FPV drones(fibre optic).


I know what it looks like because my home country in Africa faced something very similar in the 80s, the govt brought in North Korean soldiers like Putin has done for example(surprising for a lot of people to hear this but these wars are more similar than people realize), but the people aligned with the guerilla fighters(composed of regular and irregular fighters) and thoroughly crushed them. Mechanics became EW experts intercepting govt communications, nightclubs were repurposed into ammunition production facilities, diaspora sourced communication equipment from Libya and Japan such that guerilla troops could communicate securely over large distances into neighboring countries, villagers carried and concealed guerilla mobile radio stations(they were large systems in those days) that reinvigorated the masses. Children from the ages of 12-17 were prepped through boxing and sports clubs in 1979 such that when they turned 18 they would automatically join the regular or irregular forces of the guerilla forces. It wasnt an option to fight or not fight as it is in Ukraine. If you were not physically eliminating an enemy or foreign troop from NK you were participating in the mobilization of resources towards this goal. These core tenets are what Ukraine should have done before the 2022, and still hasnt fully done from the top down right now. Everyone must be involved in the fight.