Okay, bringing this back because I just got a copy of David Hobbs'
The British Carrier Strike Fleet after 1945, and while it's definitely biased to hell and back it still has some good information. And overall I think I have something that can work within the political drivers of the 1950s RN.
So one thing that became very clear to me in reading Hobbs and refreshing my information from my Friedman books on the same period is that 1954 is the pivot point for all of this. It's where politics, will, and economics converge to make new carrier construction viable, and we pretty much all agree that new carrier construction is a must for the subject. Anything before runs into the weakness of the British economy and British conceptions of the next war. After, well, that's a subject that's been litigated to death at this point.
1954, meanwhile, is:
- The point at which the plans of the late 1940s assumed the economy would be in good enough shape to resume new construction
- The new "Year of Maximum Danger" during Korea, when it looked like WW3 was imminent
- The year the prior two plans were discarded after the Korea experience, replacing the "imminent World War 3" force structure with the "warm war Korea 2.0" force structure
- When the medium carrier studies were done
- After the rock fight in 1953 the RN went through to keep the carriers in the first place
So you have a new strategic doctrine that better emphasizes the value of carriers, all sorts of momentum towards resuming new construction from prior plans (and, notably, the wartime stocks almost entirely in the water now), a design in hand, and a short-term force structure that actually
needs such a ship.
The 1954 Radical Review set a 6-carrier fleet: three fleet carriers (Eagle, Ark Royal, Victorious) and three light carriers (Centaur, Albion, Bulwark). The obvious candidates for replacement in this lineup are the Centaurs - Centaur is stuck in an axial-deck configuration while all three still have hydraulic catapults. And without the modifications done during construction on Hermes there isn't really any way to bring them up to Hermes standard. They need to be replaced, and they did excellent work as commando carriers so it's not like their young age is an impediment when other work can be found for them. The 35,000 medium carrier is a good fit for replacing them as fixed-wing carriers.
So you get, ideally two, laid down ASAP, the first completes in 1962, and when the decision to draw down the carrier fleet comes you have one and if you're lucky two brand-new ships you can point to for maintaining the carrier fleet without the expensive of beat-up WW2 ships or buying four CVA-01s.
Now, this part I've known for a while, but the fly in the ointment is the 1957 Sandys Review, which pared down the carrier fleet to four ships[sup]1[/sup]. A fleet of Eagle, Ark Royal, Hermes, and Victorious is, in 1957, all less than ten years old and aside from Eagle not terribly deficient as carriers. There's not really any room for new carriers before the 70s in that force structure.
However, I think I've come up with a point of divergence to keep this going, and surprise surprise it's Victorious, the RN alt-history community's favorite white whale.
Anything to do with Victorious has to circle back to why she was rebuilt in the first place, and I don't think I've seen a really detailed explanation on this site yet[sup]2[/sup]. Remember that 1948 strategic plan, the source for the whole "the year of maximum danger is 1957" thing? Yeah, that's where this originated. It's often forgotten that the rebuild was authorized all the way back then and design work done over the next two years. Given the angled flight deck was not conceived of until 1951, I have to assume the rebuild was initially designed for an axial-deck configuration. And we know that the Royal Navy piled on additional changes beyond just the headline machinery replacement during the rebuild, that's why it ballooned out of control like it did.
The POD I have in mind is that someone with enough pull decides, during the design process for the rebuild, that "We need these carriers rebuilt by 1957 and we can't do that if Victorious takes too long. Freeze the design, no changes during construction, if it's a less capable ship so be it".
So instead of the OTL boondoggle, Victorious comes out of drydock in late 1953 or early 1954, not too horribly overbudget but also in a SCB-27C-style axial-deck configuration with her original hull lines and machinery, steam catapults, and no Type 984. By then it's clear that the layout is obsolete and that her aging hull and machinery won't last terribly long into the 1960s. And so one of the medium carriers goes through, paid for by not having to spend all that extra money on Victorious. She enters service in 1962, and sticks around for a while because being new she significantly reduces the pressure on the RN to build new ships ASAP.
I also have dreams of a second ship being funded by screwing over the escort cruiser program, and by extension the Tigers - Hobbs makes an IMO credible argument that they're a big reason the carrier fleet got shafted, for all the same reasons the USN was vociferously opposed to the SCS. The basic idea is that moving the ASW helicopters to the escort cruisers in the first place was a mistake, since it was expensive extra construction for capabilities that the carriers could replicate with minimal impact on their air wings. And, well, the escort cruiser
did wind up replacing the carriers as the Invincibles. Still, this part of things is pretty half-baked.
- People have cited five in the past here, but four is what's in all the secondary sources I have and digging into it I have to agree with four. Centaur was not long for this world after Eagle's rebuild even without the 1966 decision; she was only modernized at all to keep four carriers active while Eagle was rebuilt.
- I could also be completely forgetting.