Crash of Embraer 190, Flight J2 8243 (Azerbaijan airlines)

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Flight J2 8243, an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 carrying 62 passengers and five crew, crashed while attempting to land at Aktau Airport Kazakhstan on the morning of Dec. 25.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1871827725268418742
View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1871827725268418742


29 passengers escaped death, with 22 sustaining injuries.

Looking at the video, it seems elevator controls was severed/unavailable to the pilots.


https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/azerbaijan-airlines-e190-crashes-kazakhstan
 
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What I've heard indicates there have been heavy casualties amongst the occupants of the E190.





Preliminary reports indicate that the aircraft crashed due to bird-strike damage.
 
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It seems much more likely to me that it was shot down by Russian air defense.
 
sublight_ said:
That ain't bird strike son. That is shrapnel.
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I was just mentioning what was stated on some of these videos as to the alleged cause of the crash however you're right in that the damaged to the E190's tail-fin looks suspiciously like shrapnel damage.
 
snne said:
View:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1871892981483221413
https://x.com/khalfaguliyev/status/1871892981483221413?t=Wf-A32U4Y-3bC1w0fH6TaA&s=19[/url]View: https://x.com/khalfaguliyev/status/1871892981483221413?t=Wf-A32U4Y-3bC1w0fH6TaA&s=19[/i][/url][/i]
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The rectangular holes and spalling are pretty consistent with fragmentation or shrapnel damage, but when an airplane crashes and parts go flying every which way, strange things can And do happen. It doesn't look like "bullet holes".

It's definitely not unreasonable to squint suspiciously at this as there were reports of Ukrainian drones in the area, but without a lot more information we aren't privy to at the moment, I wouldn't draw conclusions from the one picture.

ETA: Just noticed noticed it was a video. That definitely looks like classic "peppering". Squint suspiciously a little more freely now.
 
Until official confirmation from reliable parties emerge I think we should refrain from using highly speculative wordings like above. SP members should hold themselves to higher standards.
 
It would be ironic if the AA E190 had been crippled by an SA-11 Gadfly SAM just like the one that shot down MH17 in 2014.
 
Both are British newspapers, Express was always bad, The Telegraph used to be real news but has deteriorated seriously.

At this point, nothing has been confirmed. However, it certainly looks more like shrapnel damage than bird strike.
 
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Flaps were not brought down as Landing flaps accentuate the nose down moment. With a tail inoperative, the only way to counter the flap nose down moment is with speed, hence negating the advantage of using them and potentially damaging them while extended.

Let's at least honor the memory of the crew and how they managed to do it rather successfully under those extraordinary circumstances. Keep in mind that they had to climb back from their landing pattern near Grozny while figuring in zipping time how to fly a brick away from the ground and back to a safe area in IFR.

29 survivors in such circumstances (hence roughly 50% of the passengers) is nothing short of a miracle of bravor, professionalism and nerves of steel...
 
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Azerbaijani government sources have exclusively confirmed to Euronews on Thursday that a Russian surface-to-air missile caused the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Aktau on Wednesday.

According to the sources, the missile was fired at Flight 8432 during drone air activity above Grozny, and the shrapnel hit the passengers and cabin crew as it exploded next to the aircraft mid-flight.

Government sources have told Euronews that the damaged aircraft was not allowed to land at any Russian airports despite the pilots’ requests for an emergency landing, and it was ordered to fly across the Caspian Sea towards Aktau in Kazakhstan.
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https://www.euronews.com/2024/12/26...russian-missile-over-grozny-caused-aktau-cras
What a shame it should be to be Russian nowadays...
 
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgp3qx0q7wo

Russia warns against 'hypotheses' after Azerbaijan Airlines crash​

The Russian government has cautioned against promoting "hypotheses" about the cause of the crash of a Russia-bound passenger plane that killed 38 people in Kazakhstan on Wednesday.
Some aviation experts suggested that the Azerbaijan Airlines plane had been hit by air defence systems over the Russian republic of Chechnya and pro-government media in Azerbaijan quote officials as saying a Russian missile was responsible.
Before it went down near the Kazakh city of Aktau, the plane was diverted across the Caspian Sea, from its destination in Chechnya to western Kazakhstan.
Twenty nine of the 67 people on board survived. Azerbaijan held a national day of mourning on Thursday for the victims of the crash.
[...]
The Embraer 190 aircraft took off from the Azerbaijani capital Baku on Wednesday morning. It was due to fly to Grozny in Chechnya but it was diverted because of fog, the airline said.

A surviving passenger told Russian TV he believed the pilot had tried twice to land in dense fog over Grozny before "the third time, something exploded... some of the aircraft skin had blown out".

The plane was redirected to Aktau airport, some 450km (280 miles) to the east. Footage shows the aircraft heading towards the ground at high speed 3km (1.9 miles) short of the runway, before bursting into flames as it lands.

Kazakh authorities have recovered the flight data recorder and an investigation is under way. Shortly after the crash, reports from Russian state-controlled TV said the most likely cause was a strike from a flock of birds.

But that kind of collision typically results in the plane gliding towards the nearest airfield, aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia told Reuters news agency. "You can lose control of the plane, but you don't fly wildly off course as a consequence," he said.

Justin Crump of risk advisory company Sibylline said the pattern of damage inside and outside the plane indicated that Russian air defence active in Grozny may have caused the crash.

"It looks very much like the detonation of an air defence missile to the rear and to the left of the aircraft, if you look at the pattern of shrapnel that we see," he told BBC Radio 4.

Late on Thursday Azerbaijan's pro-government AnewZ channel said an preliminary investigation had concluded that the plane had been hit by shrapnel from a surface-to-air missile from Russia's Pantsir-S defence system.

When asked about the reports, the chief prosecutor's office told the BBC that every version was being investigated.
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I would not be so quick to jump to the conclusion the shrapnel damage was the result of a missile shot down. Keep in mind, the shrapnel damage could just as easily be cause by the aircraft exploding upon ground impact. But I will say, given the pattern of the aircraft in the air, something significantly damaged the flight control system in flight. That opens the door for all the speculation.

I still remember the 747 that had a pressure bulkhead failure that resulted in the aircraft wondering around the sky much like the Embraer 190.

All of that aside, I feel for the families that lost loved ones in this tragic event.
 
_Del_ said:
The rectangular holes and spalling are pretty consistent with fragmentation or shrapnel damage, but when an airplane crashes and parts go flying every which way, strange things can And do happen. It doesn't look like "bullet holes".

It's definitely not unreasonable to squint suspiciously at this as there were reports of Ukrainian drones in the area, but without a lot more information we aren't privy to at the moment, I wouldn't draw conclusions from the one picture.

ETA: Just noticed noticed it was a video. That definitely looks like classic "peppering". Squint suspiciously a little more freely now.
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A disintegrating turbine might produce that sort of shrapnel. The damage to the aft fuselage is too far from the main engines, but a disintegrating APU MIGHT produce that size of shrapnel.
 
djfawcett said:
I would not be so quick to jump to the conclusion the shrapnel damage was the result of a missile shot down.
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Photographic evidence is consistent with shrapnel damage from an exploding missile warhead.

riggerrob said:
The damage to the aft fuselage is too far from the main engines, but a disintegrating APU MIGHT produce that size of shrapnel.
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Aside from where the tail-section broke off from the rest of the fuselage there's no other significant external damage to it (The tail-fin and tailplane do have impact damage though), from drone footage on the news inspecting the tail-section there's no damage consistent with an uncontained gas-turbine failure.
 
Speaking to journalists in the aftermath of the Christmas Day incident, Azerbaijan Airlines' president, Samir Rzayev, credited the pilots’ actions for saving 29 others aboard the plane.


"Unfortunately, two of our experienced pilots and one guide lost their lives in the accident,” Rzayev said, according to the Azerbaijani news agency Report and Business Insider. "Their heroism will never be forgotten."

“While this tragic accident brought a significant loss to our nation," Rzayev continued, "the crew's valiant dedication to their duties until the last moment and their prioritization of human life have immortalized their names in history.”
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https://people.com/azerbaijan-airlines-pilots-credited-for-helping-half-passengers-survive-8766650
Captain Kshnyakin had 15 000 flight hours, including 11 200 as Captain.

Copilot was Kalyaninov (to be completed)

1080x608_cmsv2_f1e14bc2-2d07-5163-9cef-f1dcec0817d5-8934052.jpg


Aircraft serial was 4K-AZ65, built in 2013 with 9949 total landings and 15 257 hours flown.
 
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Well I hope that Azerbaijan Airlines management send Putin and company the bill for the replacement cost of an E190.
 
I saw some speculation the other day on another forum that the Russian ATC forced the E190 to divert to a Kazakh airport in the hope that it would lose control and crash while it was flying over the Caspian Sea.
 
NMaude said:
I saw some speculation the other day on another forum that the Russian ATC forced the E190 to divert to a Kazakh airport in the hope that it would lose control and crash while it was flying over the Caspian Sea.
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This was the script to a 80's Schwarzenegger movie where there's goodies and baddies, and the baddies do bad things just for the lulz cause that's what baddies do
 

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